Special Weather Statement, NWS Cleveland, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
819 PM EDT Mon Aug 6 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the mid Atlantic states will weaken and
allow a cold front will move east into the region late tonight.
The front will stall across in the area Tuesday. Low pressure
will move east across Ohio along the boundary Wednesday. Weak
high pressure will build in for Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Front has not made much progress but activity is filling in along
the boundary from Detroit southwest towards Toledo and continuing SW
across Indiana. Will expect the more robust convection to the
west to favor a more southeasterly trajectory where a reservoir
of 3000 J/kg of CAPE remains. Less instability is present to
the east but expect showers with at least scattered
thunderstorms to continue eastward across the area overnight as
the front sinks southward. Main change with the update was to
raise pops in NW Ohio. Can not rule out a severe storm yet
through 11 PM but chances will continue to decrease with the
loss of daytime heating.

Previous discussion...
Radar shows isolated convection now along the lake breeze east
of KCLE and nothing much more across northern OH or nwrn PA. To
our west however convection across southern lower MI is moving
east. The HRRR looks to be having trouble with this so
confidence in its evolution is low. Movement is primarily east
however if the line develops further south it would time into or
at least near KTOL by around 5pm. A severe thunderstorm watch
is just to our west. Capes feeding into the line of storms are
between 2K and 4K J/kg would would expect storms to be
energetic as they move in. The HRRR may have a better handle on
subsequent convection which it develops to our west/northwest
and moves in after 00Z affecting most if not all locations
through the night. Will have likely pops most places with cat
pops northwest. Tuesday would expect showers and thunderstorms
to redevelop as a cold front drifts in from the northwest,
eventually stalling across the area or just to our southeast.
Models bring a short wave east across the region Tuesday night.
With moisture remaining in place will have chance pops for the
evening increasing to likely overnight with the best energy.
Highs Tuesday low to mid 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A somewhat active latter half of the week begins Wednesday with
a cold front draped across the area in the morning, moving east
out of the area by the afternoon. Opted for minor changes to
pops during the day, pushing the likely pops a bit further east
, but have retained mid/high chance pops for most of the area
with some reinforcing mid level energy pushing across the area
Wednesday. Surface high pressure will regain control across the
region Wednesday night into Thursday, and have opted for a dry
forecast Wednesday night through Thursday morning, although a
piece of mid level energy tracking southeast through the
southern Great Lakes may bring a stray shower Thursday morning
into the afternoon. A stronger cold front will push south
through the Great Lakes Thursday settling close to the region
Thursday night and moving into the area on Friday. Pops increase
from Thursday afternoon through Friday from north to south
across the area, with the highest pops on Friday in the mid/high
chance range. Kept temps close to previous forecast, leaning
towards consensus MOS vs. raw guidance. The warmest day on
Thursday could see highs in the mid 80s across the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Model trends are similar but still some doubt as to the timing
of systems in the Long Term Forecast. Both models have low
pressure system centered over Lake Erie by daybreak Saturday.
After that models diverge. GFS pushes low SE of forecast area
Saturday night, then it lifts north over the area again by
daybreak Monday. ECMWF on the other hand moves the low east of
the forecast area Saturday night then moves next system over the
area late Sunday into Monday. Best chance for convection
sometime Friday night into Saturday. Timing still in doubt so
went scattered -tsra both periods. Kept Saturday night into
Sunday dry then low chance pops from Sunday night into Monday.
Temps should remain near normal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop along a slow
moving frontal boundary extending from near Chicago to Toledo at
00Z. Thunderstorms have decreased in intensity but can not rule out
a few wind gusts to 40 knots or possibly stronger, mainly at NW Ohio
sites through 03Z. Brief heavy rainfall with IFR visibilities also
possible. The trend will be for thunderstorms activity to settle
south with time across TOL and FDY, with rain and scattered
thunderstorms continuing east across the other terminals through
10Z. A lull in activity is expected towards morning with scattered
activity filling back in on Tuesday afternoon. Conditions will
generally be VFR outside of thunderstorms although some MVFR
visibilities possible in the 09-13Z window. MVFR cigs also possible
on Tuesday in the morning with diurnal heating. Winds will be
Southerly ahead of the front, shifting to west or northwest
behind it on Tuesday.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible with patchy morning BR. Non-VFR
likely in thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Quiet conditions expected on the lake through the rest of the
week as high pressure remains centered south of the lake as a
cold front slowly approaches from the northwest. The front will
move across the lake Tuesday night into Wednesday, with
southwest winds becoming northwest behind the front. Winds will
quickly return to west/southwest flow by Thursday as high
pressure builds back across the lake. Another stronger cold
front will push south across the lake on Friday with winds
becoming northerly. Winds through the period will generally be
10 kts or less.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...KEC/TK
SHORT TERM...Greenawalt
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...Greenawalt

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
544 AM EDT Mon Aug 6 2018

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
089-PAZ001>003-070945-
Lake Erie open waters from Ripley to Buffalo NY-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Lake Erie open waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie open waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-the-Lake OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-Lucas-Wood-
Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-Ashtabula Inland-
Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Medina-Summit-Portage-Trumbull-Wyandot-Crawford-
Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-Marion-Morrow-Holmes-Knox-
Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
544 AM EDT Mon Aug 6 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie, north central
Ohio, northeast Ohio, northwest Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
544 PM EDT MON AUG 6 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0503 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SSW GATES MILLS       41.52N 81.42W
08/06/2018                   CUYAHOGA           OH   PUBLIC

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
555 PM EDT MON AUG 6 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0436 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WICKLIFFE               41.60N 81.47W
08/06/2018                   LAKE               OH   PUBLIC

            WIRES AND TREES DOWN, ROCKEFELLER RD. THE
            ROAD WAS COMPLETELY BLOCKED.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
603 PM EDT MON AUG 6 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0439 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SW GATES MILLS        41.52N 81.42W
08/06/2018                   CUYAHOGA           OH   PUBLIC

            TREE DOWN IN THE WEST BOUND LANE OF GATES
            MILLS BLVD.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
610 PM EDT MON AUG 6 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N HUNTING VALLEY      41.50N 81.41W
08/06/2018                   CUYAHOGA           OH   PUBLIC

            TREE DOWN CHAGRIN RIVER RD AND CEDAR.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
831 PM EDT MON AUG 6 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0817 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     2 WNW MAUMEE            41.58N 83.69W
08/06/2018                   LUCAS              OH   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FUNNEL CLOUD I475 AND DUSSEL DR.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1007 PM EDT MON AUG 6 2018

OHZ008-009-018-019-070300-
Seneca-Huron-Erie-Sandusky-
1007 PM EDT MON AUG 6 2018

...A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
HURON...ERIE...SENECA AND SANDUSKY COUNTIES...

At 1006 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Sandusky to near Clyde to 8 miles
northeast of Fostoria. Movement was southeast at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with these
storms. Frequent lightning and brief heavy rainfall can also be
expected. Move indoors until these thunderstorms pass your area.

LAT...LON 4137 8341 4145 8304 4147 8301 4146 8299
      4149 8292 4149 8282 4151 8281 4148 8261
      4141 8250 4143 8241 4142 8235 4110 8234
      4104 8265 4103 8325 4115 8342
TIME...MOT...LOC 0206Z 304DEG 22KT 4144 8267 4128 8301 4125 8331

Clark