Special Weather Statement, NWS Cleveland, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
325 PM EDT Mon Aug 6 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the mid Atlantic states will weaken and
allow a cold front will move east into the region late tonight.
The front will stall across in the area Tuesday. Low pressure
will move east across Ohio along the boundary Wednesday. Weak
high pressure will build in for Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Radar shows isolated convection now along the lake breeze east
of KCLE and nothing much more across northern OH or nwrn PA. To
our west however convection across southern lower MI is moving
east. The HRRR looks to be having trouble with this so
confidence in its evolution is low. Movement is primarily east
however if the line develops further south it would time into or
at least near KTOL by around 5pm. A severe thunderstorm watch
is just to our west. Capes feeding into the line of storms are
between 2K and 4K J/kg would would expect storms to be
energetic as they move in. The HRRR may have a better handle on
subsequent convection which it develops to our west/northwest
and moves in after 00Z affecting most if not all locations
through the night. Will have likely pops most places with cat
pops northwest. Tuesday would expect showers and thunderstorms
to redevelop as a cold front drifts in from the northwest,
eventually stalling across the area or just to our southeast.
Models bring a short wave east across the region Tuesday night.
With moisture remaining in place will have chance pops for the
evening increasing to likely overnight with the best energy.
Highs Tuesday low to mid 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A somewhat active latter half of the week begins Wednesday with
a cold front draped across the area in the morning, moving east
out of the area by the afternoon. Opted for minor changes to
pops during the day, pushing the likely pops a bit further east
, but have retained mid/high chance pops for most of the area
with some reinforcing mid level energy pushing across the area
Wednesday. Surface high pressure will regain control across the
region Wednesday night into Thursday, and have opted for a dry
forecast Wednesday night through Thursday morning, although a
piece of mid level energy tracking southeast through the
southern Great Lakes may bring a stray shower Thursday morning
into the afternoon. A stronger cold front will push south
through the Great Lakes Thursday settling close to the region
Thursday night and moving into the area on Friday. Pops increase
from Thursday afternoon through Friday from north to south
across the area, with the highest pops on Friday in the mid/high
chance range. Kept temps close to previous forecast, leaning
towards consensus MOS vs. raw guidance. The warmest day on
Thursday could see highs in the mid 80s across the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Model trends are similar but still some doubt as to the timing
of systems in the Long Term Forecast. Both models have low
pressure system centered over Lake Erie by daybreak Saturday.
After that models diverge. GFS pushes low SE of forecast area
Saturday night, then it lifts north over the area again by
daybreak Monday. ECMWF on the other hand moves the low east of
the forecast area Saturday night then moves next system over the
area late Sunday into Monday. Best chance for convection
sometime Friday night into Saturday. Timing still in doubt so
went scattered -tsra both periods. Kept Saturday night into
Sunday dry then low chance pops from Sunday night into Monday.
Temps should remain near normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
High pressure is weakening across northern OH and nwrn PA this
afternoon. Radar shows isolated to scattered diurnal showers
and thunderstorms across mainly the eastern half of the area.
Radar also has thunderstorms across southern lower MI. Have
timed these into the KTOL area by 20Z. This evening expecting
the eastern activity to decrease/dissipate. Further west the
HRRR shows a line of convection moving in from the west after
03z moving east to near a KERI-KCLE line between 06Z-08Z with
lighter rain filling in behind. Will have VFR conditions for the
early evening with conditions dropping to MVFR overnight as
showers and thunderstorms move ese across the area. Should be
slow to improve Tuesday.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible with patchy morning BR. Non-VFR
likely in thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Quiet conditions expected on the lake through the rest of the
week as high pressure remains centered south of the lake as a
cold front slowly approaches from the northwest. The front will
move across the lake Tuesday night into Wednesday, with
southwest winds becoming northwest behind the front. Winds will
quickly return to west/southwest flow by Thursday as high
pressure builds back across the lake. Another stronger cold
front will push south across the lake on Friday with winds
becoming northerly. Winds through the period will generally be
10 kts or less.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...Greenawalt
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...Greenawalt

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
544 AM EDT Mon Aug 6 2018

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
089-PAZ001>003-070945-
Lake Erie open waters from Ripley to Buffalo NY-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Lake Erie open waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie open waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-the-Lake OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-Lucas-Wood-
Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-Ashtabula Inland-
Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Medina-Summit-Portage-Trumbull-Wyandot-Crawford-
Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-Marion-Morrow-Holmes-Knox-
Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
544 AM EDT Mon Aug 6 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie, north central
Ohio, northeast Ohio, northwest Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
128 PM EDT MON AUG 6 2018

OHZ011-012-061800-
Lake-Cuyahoga-
128 PM EDT MON AUG 6 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN CUYAHOGA AND
SOUTHWESTERN LAKE COUNTIES...

At 128 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Cleveland
Heights, or near Cleveland, moving east at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 45 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Cleveland, Willowick, Euclid, Cleveland Heights, Solon, Willoughby,
Eastlake, Warrensville Heights, Highland Hills, Garfield Heights,
Shaker Heights, Maple Heights, South Euclid, Mayfield Heights, East
Cleveland, Lyndhurst, University Heights, Bedford, Wickliffe and
Beachwood.

LAT...LON 4162 8140 4139 8139 4139 8165 4150 8170
      4164 8147
TIME...MOT...LOC 1728Z 252DEG 13KT 4146 8160

Greenawalt

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
504 PM EDT MON AUG 6 2018

OHZ011>014-023-062145-
Geauga-Lake-Trumbull-Cuyahoga-Ashtabula Inland-
504 PM EDT MON AUG 6 2018

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN
TRUMBULL...GEAUGA...EAST CENTRAL CUYAHOGA...EAST CENTRAL LAKE AND
SOUTHWESTERN ASHTABULA COUNTIES...

At 504 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from 7 miles south of Madison to near Burton
to near Solon. Movement was east at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Chardon, Solon, Warrensville Heights, South Russell, Middlefield,
Orwell, Burton, Highland Hills, Chesterland, Maple Heights, Bedford,
Beachwood, Bedford Heights, Pepper Pike, Chagrin Falls, Huntsburg,
Orange, Moreland Hills, Claridon and Walton Hills.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4180 8065 4148 8080 4134 8119 4136 8159
      4143 8157 4154 8127 4171 8120
TIME...MOT...LOC 2104Z 269DEG 17KT 4167 8107 4152 8113 4140 8139

Clark

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
516 PM EDT MON AUG 6 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 ENE RICHMOND HEIGHTS  41.57N 81.48W
08/06/2018  M58 MPH          CUYAHOGA           OH   PUBLIC

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
529 PM EDT MON AUG 6 2018

OHZ003-062215-
Lucas-
529 PM EDT MON AUG 6 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN LUCAS COUNTY...

At 529 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Swanton, moving
east at 25 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and dime size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Swanton, Oregon, Waterville, Northwood, Whitehouse, Holland, Maumee,
Ottawa Hills and Neapolis.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4161 8388 4168 8383 4166 8339 4161 8347
      4162 8357 4157 8362 4155 8368 4153 8371
      4149 8371 4146 8375 4148 8389
TIME...MOT...LOC 2129Z 286DEG 20KT 4158 8384

Clark