Severe Thunderstorm Warning 20, NWS Cleveland, OH

190 
WWUS51 KCLE 221921
SVSCLE

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
321 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2018

OHC155-221930-
/O.CON.KCLE.SV.W.0020.000000T0000Z-180522T1930Z/
Trumbull OH-
321 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM EDT
FOR EASTERN TRUMBULL COUNTY...

At 319 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located near Cortland, or 
12 miles northeast of Warren, moving east at 15 mph. In addition 
strong storms will be moving in from Portage county to the west. 
These storms will cross southern Trumbull county.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Minor damage to vehicles is possible. Expect damage to 
         trees and power lines. 

Locations impacted include...
Warren, Niles, Hubbard, Cortland, Lordstown, Kinsman, Vienna Center,
Hilltop, Maplewood Park, Girard, Vienna, McDonald, Mecca, Johnston,
Orangeville, Yankee Lake, Brookfield Center, Churchill, Howland
Center and Bolindale.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4113 8089 4148 8076 4144 8052 4114 8052
TIME...MOT...LOC 1919Z 287DEG 13KT 4137 8066 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Oudeman

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
147 PM EDT Tue May 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will settle just north of the area today as low
pressure moves over western Lake Erie by this afternoon. A cold
front will move east across the area this afternoon as the low
tracks into upstate New York by this evening. High pressure will
slowly build east across the region tonight through Thursday,
shifting east of the region by Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Updated for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 0115 valid until 9PM EDT.

Original discussion...
Based on latest surface observations, the warm front has lifted
north through most of the area early this morning, with the
exception of the Toledo area. Rain showers are quickly
diminishing across the eastern part of the area, with mainly dry
conditions across the western half of the area. Expect this
trend to continue eastward, with mainly dry conditions for
several hours this morning. Some of the hi-res guidance develops
some widely scattered/isolated showers throughout the morning,
so have held on to some slight chance pops through the morning
across the area.

Low pressure will move east across Michigan this morning into
northwest Ohio by this afternoon, accelerating eastward across
the area through the afternoon and pushing a cold front east
through the area. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop again ahead of the cold front/low, with pops ramped back
up into the mid chance and low likely range early to mid
afternoon.

Another conditional severe threat is in place for this afternoon
ahead of the cold front. Guidance suggest steady destabilization
throughout the day, building to a peak of 1500-2000 j/kg MLCAPE
along and southeast of the I-71 corridor ahead of the cold front
late this afternoon. Deep layer shear and lapse rates are fairly
marginal, however there looks to be a brief window of better
shear before diurnal stabilization, as a mid level short wave
and belt of enhanced 500mb flow spreads southeast across the
region, closer to 00Z. There could be a brief period of more
organized multicellular convection, with a bit of a damaging
wind/hail threat southeast of the I-71 corridor between 5 PM and
10 PM, and the current SPC Day 1 marginal risk area is
appropriate at this time.

The front will quickly push east of the area tonight, with high
pressure building into the area overnight. Rain showers will
generally end across the area from 03-06Z, with dry conditions
for the rest of the overnight through Wednesday. As far as
temperatures, have bumped temps up a degree or two, closer to
the warmer MOS for highs today. No major changes to temps
tonight or Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure should be overhead Wednesday night and with light
winds and relatively low dew points, forecast low temperatures
will be on the low end of guidance, generally upper 40s and
lower 50s. Lake breezes will probably persist on Thursday,
otherwise forecast temperatures will be above seasonal normals
given the air mass and the high sun angle this time of year.

The surface high should be east of the area on Friday but the ridge
axis aloft is progged to remain overhead. Some return moisture is
likely but with no trigger, would not expect diurnal convection. By
Saturday there will be a better chance for showers/storms as the
trough aloft slides across the Great Lakes. Temperatures should
reach the lower/mid 80s by Saturday unless there are more clouds and
showers than I think.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
There remains a lot of questions for much of the holiday weekend.
The amount of deep moisture from the south is in question as some of
the models keep it mostly bottled up in the south. The timing of the
next front is also in question as some of the models wash the front
out as the ridge aloft is progged to build again by early next week.
The forecast will have slightly higher pops during the day versus
night due to diurnal considerations but will not pin point a
forecast period for anything higher than "chance" pops at this time.
The forecast will be on the warm side of guidance given the air mass
on Sunday but will cool it down just a bit by Monday in the event
that the weak front has pushed through and the wind may have veered
more ENE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Cold front just SE of Tol area with broken line of showers
developing ahead of it, from Lake Erie SW into Central IN. It will
become the focus of convection later this afternoon. Convection
should push SE of forecast area by 00z. Stratus deck MVFR with
areas of IFR will develop behind the front overnight. Skies
gradually scatter out from the NW late tonight as high pressure
builds over the Great Lakes. High pressure will remain over the
forecast area into the weekend.

OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will cross Lake Erie late today. Winds have been
easterly early this morning but will become more southeast and then
southwest ahead of the front veering westerly late today and early
tonight behind the front. Winds and waves are not expected to be
very strong, probably not as strong as the east winds have been, so
winds and waves will remain below small craft advisory conditions
despite the frontal passage.

High pressure will slide across the lower Great Lakes midweek,
moving east of Lake Erie by Friday. Winds will come around SSW by
Friday. A weak cold front will sag south across the northern lakes
on Saturday, likely crossing Lake Erie on Sunday with a chance of
showers and thunderstorms and winds shifting more northeasterly. The
timing and details of the weekend system are low confidence at this
point.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Greenawalt
NEAR TERM...DJB/Greenawalt
SHORT TERM...Kosarik
LONG TERM...Kosarik
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...Kosarik

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
912 AM EDT Tue May 22 2018

OHZ020>023-029>033-037-038-047-231315-
Medina-Summit-Portage-Trumbull-Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-
Morrow-Holmes-Knox-
912 AM EDT Tue May 22 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio and
northeast Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and evening ahead
of an approaching cold front. Some of the thunderstorms may be
strong to severe. The greatest threat will be from damaging winds.
The thunderstorms may also produce brief heavy rain which may cause
ponding of water and minor flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-OHZ003-006>014-017>019-027-028-036-089-
PAZ001>003-231315-
Lake Erie open waters from Ripley to Buffalo NY-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Lake Erie open waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie open waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-the-Lake OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-Lucas-Wood-
Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-Ashtabula Inland-
Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Wyandot-Crawford-Marion-Ashtabula Lakeshore-
Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
912 AM EDT Tue May 22 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie, north central
Ohio, northeast Ohio, northwest Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
208 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2018

OHZ018-027-028-221830-
Crawford-Seneca-Wyandot-
208 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SENECA...NORTHEASTERN WYANDOT
AND NORTHWESTERN CRAWFORD COUNTIES...

At 207 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Sycamore, or 8
miles south of Tiffin, moving east at 35 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Tiffin, Fostoria, New Washington, Bloomville, Sycamore, New Riegel,
Chatfield, Carey, Attica, Benton, Republic and Bascom.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 4116 8341 4117 8284 4088 8283 4094 8343
TIME...MOT...LOC 1807Z 274DEG 29KT 4100 8322

Clark

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
219 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0201 PM     HAIL             PARMA HEIGHTS           41.39N 81.76W
05/22/2018  E0.75 INCH       CUYAHOGA           OH   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

RILEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
226 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0218 PM     HAIL             NORTH ROYALTON          41.31N 81.75W
05/22/2018  E1.00 INCH       CUYAHOGA           OH   AMATEUR RADIO

            HAIL LASTED FOR 1 MINUTE

&&

RILEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
227 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0210 PM     HAIL             PARMA HEIGHTS           41.39N 81.76W
05/22/2018  E0.75 INCH       CUYAHOGA           OH   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

RILEY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
234 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2018

OHZ017-018-027-221930-
Seneca-Wyandot-Hancock-
234 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN SENECA...NORTHERN
WYANDOT AND HANCOCK COUNTIES...

At 233 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Arcadia, or 7
miles southwest of Fostoria, moving east at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph, torrential rainfall, and half inch hail
are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Findlay, Tiffin, Fostoria, McComb, Sycamore, Arcadia, Rawson, Vanlue,
Van Buren, New Riegel, Carey, Benton Ridge and Bascom.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 4117 8379 4116 8315 4088 8318 4096 8388
      4117 8388
TIME...MOT...LOC 1833Z 273DEG 31KT 4107 8349

Clark

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
245 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0219 PM     HAIL             BROADVIEW HEIGHTS       41.32N 81.68W
05/22/2018  E1.25 INCH       CUYAHOGA           OH   PUBLIC

            ESTIMATED 1 TO 1.5 INCH HAIL STONES. REPORTED VIA TWITTER
            WITH VIDEO OF HAIL.

&&

RILEY