River Flood Warning 79, NWS Cleveland, OH

673 
WGUS81 KCLE 220758
FLSCLE
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
258 AM EST Sat Dec 22 2018

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Ohio...

  Eagle Creek At Phalanx Station

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Ohio...

  Killbuck Creek Near Killbuck

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Never drive your car through flooded roadways. The water may be 
deeper than it appears. Turn around...don't drown!

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio and other local media for further 
details and updates.


&&

OHC075-169-221558-
/O.CON.KCLE.FL.W.0078.000000T0000Z-181223T0800Z/
/KILO1.1.ER.181221T2236Z.181222T0700Z.181223T0200Z.NO/
258 AM EST Sat Dec 22 2018

The flood warning continues for
  The Killbuck Creek Near Killbuck.
* Until late tonight. 
* At  2:00 AM Saturday the stage was...15.2 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* The river will fall to below flood stage by tonight.
* At 16.0 feet...Flooded roads in and near Killbuck include Water 
  Street, County Road 621, State Route 60 south, as well as local low
  lying roads. Holmes county fairgrounds inundated.

&&

LAT...LON 4099 8203 4099 8193 4067 8190 4045 8191
      4045 8202 4067 8202             

$$

OHC155-221335-
/O.EXT.KCLE.FL.W.0079.000000T0000Z-181222T1335Z/
/PHAO1.1.ER.181222T0437Z.181222T0700Z.181222T0735Z.UU/
258 AM EST Sat Dec 22 2018

...Flood warning extended until this morning...The flood warning 
continues for
  The Eagle Creek At Phalanx Station.
* Until this morning. 
* At  2:00 AM Saturday the stage was...9.6 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Nonflood flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 9.5 feet.
* The river will fall to below flood stage by early this morning.
* At 9.5 feet...Barclay Messerly Road south of the Warren Airport in 
  Braceville floods. Knowlton Road will be threatened.

&&

LAT...LON 4133 8100 4129 8093 4128 8087 4124 8092
      4124 8095 4125 8100             

$$

288 
WGUS81 KCLE 221216
FLSCLE
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
716 AM EST Sat Dec 22 2018

...The flood warning is cancelled for the following rivers in Ohio...

  Eagle Creek At Phalanx Station

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Never drive your car through flooded roadways. The water may be 
deeper than it appears. Turn around...don't drown!

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio and other local media for further 
details and updates.


&&

OHC155-221246-
/O.CAN.KCLE.FL.W.0079.000000T0000Z-181222T1335Z/
/PHAO1.1.ER.181222T0437Z.181222T0815Z.181222T1052Z.UU/
716 AM EST Sat Dec 22 2018

The flood warning is cancelled for 
  The Eagle Creek At Phalanx Station.
* At  7:00 AM Saturday the stage was...9.4 feet. 
* Flood stage is 9.5 feet.
* At 9.5 feet...Barclay Messerly Road south of the Warren Airport in 
  Braceville floods. Knowlton Road will be threatened.

&&

LAT...LON 4133 8100 4129 8093 4128 8087 4124 8092
      4124 8095 4125 8100             

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
935 PM EST Fri Dec 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure centered in Pennsylvania will continue north
overnight into Quebec. A weak ridge of high pressure will move
across the area Saturday. Sunday weak low pressure will move
through the lower Great Lakes region. High pressure will build
across the Ohio valley Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Not really seeing any reason to make big changes. Temperatures
are slow to drop and made a few minor adjustments to the hourly
temperatures. Still think that as the upper trough/shortwave
rotate across then we will get a slight uptick in precipitation
coverage, but overall it does not change the general wording of
the forecast for the rest of tonight. Original discussion...Low
pressure over PA will continue north this evening and overnight
reaching Quebec on Saturday. Radar shows rain on the back side
of the low into far eastern OH and nwrn PA this afternoon. As
the low pulls northeast the rain shouldn't reach much further
west into the area so will carry a slight chance pop for the
western half through the evening. For the far east, will have
likely to categorical pops through the evening and then drop to
chance overnight. Through the late evening and overnight 850mb
temps drop below 0C so rain will change to light snow as the
system pulls out. After midnight however flow off the lake may
sustain precip into northeast OH and nwrn PA. Temps at 850mb
drop to -5C by morning so no real lake effect forcing to speak
of as it is not cold enough. Still, expect some moisture to get
picked up. Will have an inch or 2 in the higher elevations of
nwrn PA with lesser amounts elsewhere. Saturday high pressure
builds in from the south although low level moisture will be
slow to leave if at all. Will have a dry forecast but have
increased cloud cover through the day. Best chance of breaks
would be west in the afternoon. Saturday night a warm front
moves into the area ahead of a clipper system dropping toward
the lower lakes. Models do show increasing moisture across the
area during the night in the warm advection/isentropic lift
aloft but for now it looks like we should remain dry through the
night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A weak short wave will move across the forecast area Sunday
afternoon into Sunday night. Models have been consistent on
developing some light snow with this system. Better chance of
snow in the east as tap into a deeper moisture source. Models
continue with another short wave moving across the forecast area
Christmas day into Christmas evening. Not a deep moisture
source so for now will just continue with chance pops.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Chance for a little snow in the east Tuesday night as short wave
exits the forecast area.  Wedneday into Wednesday night should
remain dry as large area of high pressure moves across the Great
lakes. Timing of next system still in doubt. The GFS moves the
system through Thursday into Thursday night while the slower
ECMWF is about 12 hours slower. For forecast leaned toward the
slower ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Overall the IFR/LIFR conditions will continue for tonight.
Exception will be TOL and then improvement from west to east
Saturday across the terminals. This evening's drizzle will
transition to light flurries/snow. With the passage of the
upper trough tonight could see a blossoming of radar returns
overnight. At that point light snow would be expected. Northwest
winds will be gusty at times tonight, slowly relaxing on
Saturday and backing more westerly.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR lingering into Sunday across NE OH/NW PA in
snow showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory in effect until late Saturday. Low now
over Lake Huron and the colder air beginning to spill over the
Lake. NW winds increase to 15 to 25 knots tonight as the 850mb
temps dip to -6c to -8c. Winds diminish Saturday afternoon as
high pressure moves across the Upper Ohio Valley. Winds shift to
the South Saturday night as the high moves east of the lake. A
surface trough swings across the Lake on Sunday. Small Craft
likely need Sunday night as winds shift to the West at 10 to 20
knots.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST Saturday for LEZ144>149.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...DJB/Oudeman
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...Oudeman
MARINE...DJB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
434 AM EST Fri Dec 21 2018

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
089-PAZ001>003-220945-
Lake Erie open waters from Ripley to Buffalo NY-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Lake Erie open waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie open waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-the-Lake OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-Lucas-Wood-
Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-Ashtabula Inland-
Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Medina-Summit-Portage-Trumbull-Wyandot-Crawford-
Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-Marion-Morrow-Holmes-Knox-
Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
434 AM EST Fri Dec 21 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie, north central
Ohio, northeast Ohio, northwest Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.