River Flood Warning 38, NWS Cleveland, OH

748 
WGUS81 KCLE 310135
FLSCLE
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
935 PM EDT Fri Mar 30 2018

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Ohio...

  Eagle Creek At Phalanx Station

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Never drive your car through flooded roadways. The water may be 
deeper than it appears. Turn around...don't drown!

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio and other local media for further 
details and updates.


&&

OHC155-310935-
/O.CON.KCLE.FL.W.0038.000000T0000Z-180331T1800Z/
/PHAO1.1.ER.180330T2345Z.180331T0300Z.180331T1200Z.UU/
935 PM EDT Fri Mar 30 2018

The flood warning continues for 
  the Eagle Creek At Phalanx Station
* until Saturday afternoon...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  9:00 PM Friday the stage was 9.5 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 9.5 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise to near 9.6 feet by tonight. The 
  river will fall below flood stage Saturday afternoon.
* At 9.5 feet...Barclay Messerly Road south of the Warren Airport in 
  Braceville floods. Knowlton Road will be threatened.

&&

LAT...LON 4133 8100 4129 8093 4128 8087 4124 8092
      4124 8095 4125 8100             

$$

847 
WGUS81 KCLE 310337
FLSCLE
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1137 PM EDT Fri Mar 30 2018

...The flood warning is cancelled for the following rivers in Ohio...

  Eagle Creek At Phalanx Station

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Never drive your car through flooded roadways. The water may be 
deeper than it appears. Turn around...don't drown!

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio and other local media for further 
details and updates.


&&

OHC155-310407-
/O.CAN.KCLE.FL.W.0038.000000T0000Z-180331T1800Z/
/PHAO1.1.ER.180330T2345Z.180331T0100Z.180331T0115Z.UU/
1137 PM EDT Fri Mar 30 2018

* At 11:00 PM Friday the stage was 9.4 feet. 
* No flooding is currently forecast.
* Flood stage is 9.5 feet.
* At 9.5 feet...Barclay Messerly Road south of the Warren Airport in 
  Braceville floods. Knowlton Road will be threatened.

&&

LAT...LON 4133 8100 4129 8093 4128 8087 4124 8092
      4124 8095 4125 8100             

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
153 PM EDT Fri Mar 30 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the Great Lakes and Ohio valley
today and tonight. Low pressure will track east across the
northern Great Lakes Saturday and Saturday night, pushing a cold
front east through the region. High pressure will build across
the Great Lakes Sunday before a quick moving low pressure system
track east through the Ohio valley Sunday night. High pressure
will regain control across the region on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
No major changes to this forecast. Bulk of the precipitation has
moved east of the area at this time. Clearing is starting to
push into the western portions of the forecast area now and we
should start to see some sun and help boost temperatures into
the afternoon.

Original discussion...
Precipitation will continue to progress east across the area
early this morning as low pressure continues to move northeast
away from the area. Hi-res guidance is handling the current
evolution well, with an end to the precip across the local area
by 15Z-16Z. Still expecting a brief period of a rain/snow mix
and a possible changeover to mainly snow, however remaining
precip across the area looks fairly light, with heavier returns
and noted bright banding on radar tracking just southeast of the
forecast area. Not expecting much if anything with respect to
snow accumulation, however some of the higher elevations of NE
OH and NW PA could see a dusting on non-paved surfaces through
mid morning.

Dry conditions are expected late this morning through the rest
of today and tonight as high pressure builds into the region.
Main forecast change is expected cloud cover lingering longer
through the day, with mid/high clouds lingering for quite a
while through the afternoon before gradual clearing from
northwest to southeast through the evening/late tonight. Highs
are expected to be in the upper 30s to mid 40s today, with lows
tonight in the mid 20s to low 30s.

Deepening low pressure is expected to track east northeast
through the northern Great Lakes Saturday pushing a cold front
into the area by Saturday afternoon. Fairly strong low level
flow expected with this dynamic system, with low level jet of 50
to 60 knots pushing into northwest Ohio by Saturday afternoon.
Gradient/mixing ahead of the cold front should allow winds to
ramp up during the day Saturday, with the strongest winds
expected west of the I-71 corridor and along the Lake Erie shore
through northeast Ohio/northwest PA. Sustained winds of 20-30
mph expected, with gusts 40-45 mph currently expected. There may
be a need for a wind advisory for much of the area on Saturday,
but will allow the next shift to take a look at the 12Z data
before making a headline decision. Nevertheless, a breezy day
expected with precip chances increasing from late morning
through the afternoon from west to east across the area. Highs
on Saturday should reach the low to mid 50s across most of the
area. Winds should peak late in the afternoon and will start to
decrease after 00Z with the frontal passage through the evening.
Some gusty winds could impact areas near the Lake Erie shoreline
behind the front, in the 25-35 mph range, through the evening
before diminishing rapidly after midnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Strong cold advection will follow behind the cold front on Saturday
night. Precipitation is expected to end quickly as a mid-level dry
slot wraps in behind the front with the bulk of the precipitation
ending by midnight. Can not rule out some snow mixing in before
precipitation comes to an end but this window will be very brief.
The only place where a few snow showers may linger is over the
higher areas of NW PA but even these light snow showers will not
amount to much. 850mb temperatures near -8C on Sunday will keep
temperatures well below normal with most locations peaking in the
30s except possibly the far south.

High pressure will build east across the area Sunday into Monday.
Some sun on Monday along with winds shifting around to the southeast
will allow temperatures to climb by 5-7 degrees from Sunday's highs.

Models have come into better agreement by Tuesday with low pressure
tracking out of the Plains across Ohio. Moisture increases on Monday
night with a trough deepening to the west and southwest flow aloft.
Brought a chance of showers into the area on Monday night as
isentropic ascent increases with likely pops everywhere on Tuesday
as the low passes through the region. We will need to keep an eye on
precip type Tuesday night as cold air is wrapped in on the back side
of the low. High temperatures on Tuesday will be tricky as the
warm front approaches from the south with a cool east northeast
flow expected closer to the lake. A tight gradient is expected
and lowered highs near the lakeshore with this package.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A very cool airmass for early April will be overhead again on
Wednesday with many areas again seeing highs in the 30s. A trough
remains over the eastern United States through the extended. High
pressure originating in Canada will settle southeast across the Ohio
Valley Wednesday then continue to the Mid-Atlantic Coast Thursday.
Normal high temperatures for the first week of April are in the
lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Clouds will be gradually improving from west to east as drier
air pushes into the region. We should see VFR conditions through
the rest of the TAF period. A cold front will approach the area
Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Some showers will begin
to spread east into the western portions of the area by the end
of the TAF period. Winds will be on the increase during the day
tomorrow and could become gusty to 35 knots or perhaps slightly
higher.

.Outlook...Non-VFR Monday night into Tuesday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Northerly winds are gradually increasing early this morning and will
remain in the 15-20 knot range for a few more hours. Waves are
running a little lower than previously forecast as winds have been
slow to increase. Despite this, waves of 3 to 5 feet are expected to
continue through mid morning from the Islands to Ashtabula so will
leave the Small Craft Advisory in effect through 10 AM. Conditions
will improve later this afternoon into tonight as high pressure
builds east across the lake.

A strengthening low pressure system is forecast to move across the
Upper Great Lakes into Canada Saturday into Saturday night.
Southwest winds will increase to 30 knots ahead of the associated
cold front during the late morning and early afternoon, shifting to
west and northwest as the front crosses the lake Saturday evening.
Winds aloft will be very strong but stable conditions over the lake
will prevent much of the stronger winds from mixing down. Winds may
approach gales briefly along the front but expecting conditions to
remain gale force for much of the event. High end Small Craft
Advisories will be needed for all nearshore waters.

Conditions will improve Sunday though Monday as high pressure builds
east across the southern lakes region. Increasing winds can be
expected again Tuesday into Wednesday as another low pressure system
passes south of the lake.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Greenawalt
NEAR TERM...Greenawalt/Lombardy
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...Lombardy
MARINE...KEC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
612 AM EDT Fri Mar 30 2018

OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-PAZ001>003-311015-
Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-
Ashtabula Inland-Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Medina-Summit-Portage-Trumbull-
Wyandot-Crawford-Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-Marion-Morrow-
Holmes-Knox-Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
612 AM EDT Fri Mar 30 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio, northeast
Ohio, northwest Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Wind gusts to 45 mph are possible Saturday afternoon and evening with
the passage of the cold front. Locally higher gusts are possible with
any rain showers that develop.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-311015-
Lake Erie open waters from Ripley to Buffalo NY-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Lake Erie open waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie open waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-the-Lake OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
612 AM EDT Fri Mar 30 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Winds may briefly approach gale force with the passage of a cold
front Saturday evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.