Gale Warning 11, NWS Cleveland, OH

250 
WHUS71 KCLE 092000
MWWCLE

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
300 PM EST Fri Nov 9 2018

...Strong Winds Tonight and Saturday...

.Low pressure will move northeast through the central Great Lakes
tonight and Saturday. The storm system will bring strong gale
force winds on Lake Erie later tonight into the day Saturday.

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-100400-
/O.CON.KCLE.GL.W.0011.181110T0900Z-181110T1800Z/
Lake Erie open waters from Ripley to Buffalo NY-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-
the Lake OH-Lake Erie nearshore waters from Geneva-on-the-
Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Lake Erie open waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie open waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-the-Lake OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
300 PM EST Fri Nov 9 2018

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST
SATURDAY...

* WINDS...West 25 to 35 knots with gusts up to 40 knots.

* WAVES...8 to 13 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning is issued when winds of 34 to 47 knots are
imminent or occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions
requires experience and a properly equipped vessel. Mariners
without the proper experience and vessel remain in port or should
seek safe harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

Garnet

092 
WHUS71 KCLE 100323
MWWCLE

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1023 PM EST Fri Nov 9 2018

...Strong Winds Late Tonight and Saturday...

.Low pressure north of Lake Huron will continue to deepen as it
moves northeast into Quebec on Saturday. The storm system will 
bring strong gale force winds on Lake Erie later tonight into the 
day Saturday.

LEZ142>144-162>164-101130-
/O.NEW.KCLE.LO.Y.0010.181110T0323Z-181110T1800Z/
/O.CON.KCLE.GL.W.0011.181110T0900Z-181110T1800Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie open waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
1023 PM EST Fri Nov 9 2018

...LOW WATER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST
SATURDAY...

The National Weather Service in Cleveland has issued a Low Water
Advisory, which is in effect until 1 PM EST Saturday.

* WINDS...West 25 to 35 knots with gusts up to 40 knots.

* Water Levels...At 10 PM the water level at Toledo was 19 inches
  above low water datum or 2 inches above the critical mark for
  safe navigation. The water level is expected to fall to around a
  half foot above low water datum early Saturday morning, then
  gradually rise through early afternoon. 

* WAVES...3 to 6 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning is issued when winds of 34 to 47 knots are
imminent or occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions
requires experience and a properly equipped vessel. Mariners
without the proper experience and vessel remain in port or should
seek safe harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

A Low Water Advisory is issued when water levels are expected to
be below the critical mark for safe navigation. Vessels may
become grounded. Contact the Coast Guard for the latest water
level. Mariners should use extreme caution or consider waiting
until water levels rise.

&&

$$

LEZ061-145>149-165>169-101130-
/O.CON.KCLE.GL.W.0011.181110T0900Z-181110T1800Z/
Lake Erie open waters from Ripley to Buffalo NY-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-
the Lake OH-Lake Erie nearshore waters from Geneva-on-the-
Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Lake Erie open waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-the-Lake OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
1023 PM EST Fri Nov 9 2018

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST
SATURDAY...

* WINDS...West 30 to 35 knot gales with gusts up to 40 knots.

* WAVES...8 to 13 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning is issued when winds of 34 to 47 knots are
imminent or occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions
requires experience and a properly equipped vessel. Mariners
without the proper experience and vessel remain in port or should
seek safe harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

219 
WHUS71 KCLE 100903
MWWCLE

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
403 AM EST Sat Nov 10 2018

...Strong Winds Today...

.Low pressure east of Lake Huron will continue to deepen as it 
moves northeast into Quebec today. The storm system will bring 
strong gale force winds on Lake Erie today.

LEZ142>144-162>164-101715-
/O.CON.KCLE.LO.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-181110T1800Z/
/O.EXT.KCLE.GL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-181110T2200Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie open waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
403 AM EST Sat Nov 10 2018

...LOW WATER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

* WINDS...West to 35 knots with gusts up to 45 knots.

* Water Levels...At 4 AM the water level at Toledo was 19 inches
  above low water datum or 3 inches above the critical mark for
  safe navigation. The water level is expected to fall to around a
  half foot above low water datum this morning and then gradually
  rise through early afternoon as winds diminish.

* WAVES...5 to 9 feet. Occasionally...11 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning is issued when winds of 34 to 47 knots are
imminent or occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions
requires experience and a properly equipped vessel. Mariners
without the proper experience and vessel remain in port or should
seek safe harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

A Low Water Advisory is issued when water levels are expected to
be below the critical mark for safe navigation. Vessels may
become grounded. Contact the Coast Guard for the latest water
level. Mariners should use extreme caution or consider waiting
until water levels rise.

&&

$$

LEZ061-145>149-165>169-101715-
/O.EXT.KCLE.GL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-181110T2200Z/
Lake Erie open waters from Ripley to Buffalo NY-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-
the Lake OH-Lake Erie nearshore waters from Geneva-on-the-
Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Lake Erie open waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-the-Lake OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
403 AM EST Sat Nov 10 2018

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

* WINDS...West to 40 knots with gusts up to 45 knots.

* WAVES...9 to 14 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning is issued when winds of 34 to 47 knots are
imminent or occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions
requires experience and a properly equipped vessel. Mariners
without the proper experience and vessel remain in port or should
seek safe harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

057 
WHUS71 KCLE 101459
MWWCLE

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
959 AM EST Sat Nov 10 2018

...Gales Today...

.Low pressure east of Lake Huron will continue to deepen as it
moves northeast into Quebec today. The storm system will bring
strong gale force winds on Lake Erie today.

LEZ142>144-162>164-102200-
/O.CON.KCLE.GL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-181110T2200Z/
/O.CON.KCLE.LO.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-181110T1800Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie open waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
959 AM EST Sat Nov 10 2018

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
...LOW WATER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WINDS...West to 35 knots with gusts up to 45 knots.

* Water Levels...At 945 AM the water level at Toledo was 12 inches
  above low water datum or 4 inches below the critical mark for
  safe navigation. The water level may fall further to within a 
  few inches of low water datum this morning and then rise through
  early afternoon as winds diminish and shift more westerly. It 
  is possible that the low water advisory may need to be extended 
  into the afternoon. 

* WAVES...5 to 9 feet. Occasionally...11 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning is issued when winds of 34 to 47 knots are
imminent or occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions
requires experience and a properly equipped vessel. Mariners
without the proper experience and vessel remain in port or should
seek safe harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

A Low Water Advisory is issued when water levels are expected to
be below the critical mark for safe navigation. Vessels may
become grounded. Contact the Coast Guard for the latest water
level. Mariners should use extreme caution or consider waiting
until water levels rise.

&&

$$

LEZ061-145>149-165>169-102200-
/O.CON.KCLE.GL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-181110T2200Z/
Lake Erie open waters from Ripley to Buffalo NY-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-
the Lake OH-Lake Erie nearshore waters from Geneva-on-the-
Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Lake Erie open waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-the-Lake OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
959 AM EST Sat Nov 10 2018

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

* WINDS...West to 40 knots with gusts up to 45 knots.

* WAVES...9 to 14 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning is issued when winds of 34 to 47 knots are
imminent or occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions
requires experience and a properly equipped vessel. Mariners
without the proper experience and vessel remain in port or should
seek safe harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

439 
WHUS71 KCLE 101729
MWWCLE

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1229 PM EST Sat Nov 10 2018

...Gales Today...

.Low pressure east of Lake Huron will continue to deepen as it
moves northeast into Quebec today. The storm system will bring
strong gale force winds on Lake Erie today.

LEZ142>144-162>164-102200-
/O.EXT.KCLE.LO.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-181110T2200Z/
/O.CON.KCLE.GL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-181110T2200Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie open waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
1229 PM EST Sat Nov 10 2018

...LOW WATER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

* WINDS...West to 35 knots with gusts up to 45 knots.

* Water Levels...At 1230 PM the water level at Toledo was 20
  inches above low water datum which is 4 inches above the
  critical mark for safe navigation. The water level may fall back
  below the critical mark yet this afternoon. Therefore the Low
  Water Advisory has been extended into this afternoon.

* WAVES...5 to 9 feet. Occasionally...11 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning is issued when winds of 34 to 47 knots are
imminent or occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions
requires experience and a properly equipped vessel. Mariners
without the proper experience and vessel remain in port or should
seek safe harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

A Low Water Advisory is issued when water levels are expected to
be below the critical mark for safe navigation. Vessels may
become grounded. Contact the Coast Guard for the latest water
level. Mariners should use extreme caution or consider waiting
until water levels rise.

&&

$$

LEZ061-145>149-165>169-102200-
/O.CON.KCLE.GL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-181110T2200Z/
Lake Erie open waters from Ripley to Buffalo NY-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-
the Lake OH-Lake Erie nearshore waters from Geneva-on-the-
Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Lake Erie open waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-the-Lake OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
1229 PM EST Sat Nov 10 2018

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

* WINDS...West to 40 knots with gusts up to 45 knots.

* WAVES...9 to 14 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning is issued when winds of 34 to 47 knots are
imminent or occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions
requires experience and a properly equipped vessel. Mariners
without the proper experience and vessel remain in port or should
seek safe harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

697 
WHUS71 KCLE 102027
MWWCLE

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
327 PM EST Sat Nov 10 2018

LEZ142>144-110300-
/O.CAN.KCLE.GL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-181110T2200Z/
/O.NEW.KCLE.SC.Y.0065.181110T2027Z-181111T0300Z/
/O.EXT.KCLE.LO.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-181111T0200Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
327 PM EST Sat Nov 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...LOW WATER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Cleveland has issued a Small
Craft Advisory, which is in effect until 10 PM EST this evening.
The Gale Warning has been cancelled.

* WINDS...West 20 to 30 knots becoming southwest and diminishing
  to 15 to 15 knots this evening.

* Water Levels...At 330 PM the water level at Toledo was 6 inches
  above low water datum which is 10 inches below the critical mark
  for safe navigation. The water level is expected to go back
  above the critical mark this evening.

* WAVES...4 to 7 feet early subsiding to 2 to 4 feet late this
  evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Low Water Advisory is issued when water levels are expected to
be below the critical mark for safe navigation. Vessels may
become grounded. Contact the Coast Guard for the latest water
level. Mariners should use extreme caution or consider waiting
until water levels rise.

A Small Craft Advisory is issued when waves of 4 feet or more are
expected or wind speeds reach 21 to 33 knots which may produce
hazardous conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners...
especially those operating smaller vessels...should stay in port
during these conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ162>164-110200-
/O.CAN.KCLE.GL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-181110T2200Z/
/O.EXT.KCLE.LO.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-181111T0200Z/
Lake Erie open waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie open waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
327 PM EST Sat Nov 10 2018

...LOW WATER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Cleveland has cancelled the Gale
Warning.

* Water Levels...At 330 PM the water level at Toledo was 6 inches
  above low water datum which is 10 inches below the critical mark
  for safe navigation. The water level is expected to go back
  above the critical mark this evening. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Low Water Advisory is issued when water levels are expected to
be below the critical mark for safe navigation. Vessels may
become grounded. Contact the Coast Guard for the latest water
level. Mariners should use extreme caution or consider waiting
until water levels rise.

&&

$$

LEZ145>149-110430-
/O.CAN.KCLE.GL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-181110T2200Z/
/O.NEW.KCLE.SC.Y.0065.181110T2027Z-181111T0900Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-
the Lake OH-Lake Erie nearshore waters from Geneva-on-the-
Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
327 PM EST Sat Nov 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Cleveland has issued a Small
Craft Advisory, which is in effect until 4 AM EST Sunday. The
Gale Warning has been cancelled.

* WINDS...West 20 to 30 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots

* WAVES...9 to 12 feet early subsiding to 2 to 4 feet late
  tonight.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory is issued when waves of 4 feet or more are
expected or wind speeds reach 21 to 33 knots which may produce
hazardous conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners...
especially those operating smaller vessels...should stay in port
during these conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ061-165>169-102130-
/O.CAN.KCLE.GL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-181110T2200Z/
Lake Erie open waters from Ripley to Buffalo NY-
Lake Erie open waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-the-Lake OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
327 PM EST Sat Nov 10 2018

...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Cleveland has cancelled the Gale
Warning.

Sustained gales have ended. A few gusts in excess of 35 knots may
still be possible for a few more hours this evening.

$$

oudeman

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
117 AM EST Fri Nov 9 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the Great Lakes this evening will shift east
into New England by morning as low pressure develops over the
Ohio Valley. On Friday the low will track from near Huntington
WV north to Lake Erie and then to Lake Huron. The low pressure
will track into Quebec on Saturday as a trough lingers over the
lakes. On Sunday...high pressure will build over the Ohio
Valley.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Dry air at the surface will keep precipitation from reaching
the surface for several more hours. So far the only
precipitation reaching the surface is across central/western
Indiana. Since it appears we will have a later start to the
precipitation we have decreased amounts for the reminder of the
overnight. Also it may end up being more liquid as the warmer
air continues to drift northward.

Previous Discussion...
Precipitation is expanding upstream on regional radars but is
still several hours away. The 00Z NAM has come in more
aggressive with snowfall across NW Ohio, advertising 2-4 inches
of snow focused northwest of a line from Findlay to Sandusky.
Although the NAM is the highest, the Regional Canadian, GFS, and
SREF all support slightly higher snow potential where forcing
is focused along the 700mb front. We still need to account for
factors like the warmer flow off Lake Erie, warm ground
temperatures, and possibly warmer air in the lowest 2000 feet
sneaking in from the south. Despite this, suspect more of the
area could see a slushy 1-2 inches, especially along the I-75
corridor and raised accumulations. To the east, will bring the
transition to rain in a little sooner for our southeastern
counties as the inverted trough and warmer air aloft move into
NE Ohio.

Previous discussion...An active period is in store leading into
the weekend. A mixed light precipitation event is expected late
tonight and early Friday and lake effect snow is expected later
Friday night.

Early this evening will be quiet with partly to mostly cloudy
skies as high pressure builds to the east. Later tonight low
pressure in the form of an inverted trough will develop over the
Ohio Valley and spread light precipitation across the region
between 06-12 UTC. Generally aloft the colder air is toward the
nw toward TOL but the still warm Lake Erie will help keep the
immediate lakeshore mild. So we can expect light snow to move
into or develop over the western counties after midnight. Rain
will prevail near the lakeshore. Mixed precipitation can be
expected farther east with light snow in interior nw PA and
higher Geauga with just rain near the lakeshore. Lingering mixed
precipitation will take much of the morning to change to all
rain in interior nw PA while elsewhere we can expect rain to
become showery and diminish in the afternoon. High temperatures
will reach the lower 40s.

As the surface low lifts north of Lake Huron Friday
evening...cold advection will overspread the region and change
lingering rain showers to snow showers. The warm lake will delay
the changeover at the immediate lakeshore while the higher
inland locations of Geauga and inland nw PA change to snow
sooner. The latest guidance indicates that the inversion depth
deepens quite a bit later Friday night to near 10,000 Feet and
continues into Saturday with moist conditions and decent lift for
lake effect snow to develop. However there is some question on
the fetch of the bands and likelihood of them intersecting the
southern Erie Lakeshore in OH or PA. The band may remain
offshore much of Friday night. Accumulations in the snowbelt
away from the lake may be 1-3 inches. Temperatures will fall to
the 25-30 degree range.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Lake Effect Snow will be a concern on Saturday.  A surface trough
will rotate around the low pressure center.  The models indicate
lift and deep layer synoptic moisture with this system on Saturday.
With 850mb temperatures around -12C, sufficient instability will
exist for Lake Effect Snow.  The question is the location.  The 12Z
model soundings show a low level southwest flow with more of a
westerly flow in the higher levels of the boundary layer.  This is
typical for this time of year and snow bands tend to hug the shore
line for longer periods of time before moving inland. Snow bands
will form 06Z-12Z Saturday and will likely move inland during the
late morning on Saturday. The instability and synoptic moisture
decreases in the afternoon and evening on Saturday. The window for
favorable snow will likely be 12Z-18Z on Saturday. I will keep with
the trend of the current forecast with the most likely areas of Lake
Effect Snow northeast sections inland Erie County PA. I will keep
totals below watch criteria but this area will need to be monitored
as values could be close to warning/advisory criteria for a few
locations particularly near Northeast PA. High pressure will quickly
build over the region Sunday afternoon and remain over the area
through Sunday night.  A cold front will move across the forecast
area on Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A cold front will be moving east of the forecast area on Tuesday
and a coastal storm will be developing.  This storm will likely
create a strong north to northwest flow across the Great Lakes
region.  12Z model runs indicate a surface short wave and synoptic
moisture rotating around the surface low.  This will likely create
favorable lake effect snow conditions over the forecast area
Tuesday night into Wednesday.  On Wednesday night,  a surface
ridge will begin to build over the region bringing fair conditions
for Thursday.  Models indicate a clipper system will be approaching
the forecast area on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
VFR cloud cover across the area will slowly lower through the
remainder of the overnight. Expect MVFR ceilings to arrive with
the precipitation. Likely about an hour after the onset of the
precipitation. IFR cloud cover will arrive with the heaviest
rain and then as the colder air arrives this evening. Some
light snow accumulation will be possible this morning and again
Friday night.

Easterly winds will occur ahead of low pressure this morning. As
the low moves across eastern Ohio winds will shift through the
day with southwesterly winds expected by afternoon. Winds will
be increasing with the southwesterly shift becoming strongest
as they shift more to the west. Gusts may reach 25 knots across
the west by late evening.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR lingering through Saturday night in the
snowbelt, especially near ERI with lake effect snow.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will continue to decrease in intensity this evening as
a surface high pressure ridge builds over the lake.  Winds will
eventually shift to the east after midnight as a surface low
pressure system moves towards the Ohio Valley.
This storm will deep and move over the eastern sections of
Lake Erie on Friday.  Winds will shift to the west behind
this surface low Friday afternoon.  Strong cold air advection will
begin late Friday night as a surface trough moves across the lake.
Winds will shift to the northwest and increase dramatically behind
this surface trough.  Northwest winds near gale force are expected
on Saturday.  High pressure will slowly build back over the lake on
Sunday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LaPlante
NEAR TERM...LaPlante/Mullen
SHORT TERM...Garnet
LONG TERM...Garnet
AVIATION...Mullen
MARINE...Garnet

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
423 AM EST Thu Nov 8 2018

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-OHZ003-006>013-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
089-PAZ001-090930-
Lake Erie open waters from Ripley to Buffalo NY-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Lake Erie open waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie open waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-the-Lake OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-Lucas-Wood-
Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-Hancock-Seneca-
Huron-Medina-Summit-Portage-Trumbull-Wyandot-Crawford-Richland-
Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-Marion-Morrow-Holmes-Knox-
Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-
423 AM EST Thu Nov 8 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie, north central
Ohio, northeast Ohio, northwest Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ014-PAZ002-003-090930-
Ashtabula Inland-Southern Erie-Crawford-
423 AM EST Thu Nov 8 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Ohio and northwest
Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Cold air will arrive Friday night into Saturday with lake effect
snow developing. Light to moderate accumulations are possible for
inland locations.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.