Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
407 PM EDT Thu Aug 2 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled conditions will persist through Friday as the region
remains situated between high pressure offshore and an inland
trough of low pressure. Atlantic high pressure will build in
for the weekend, before another inland trough develops during
the early and middle parts of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
The mid-levels consist of a ridge over the Atlantic while a
trough stretches from the Great Lakes region southwards into the
northern Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, the Bermuda high is in
place to our east while a stationary front and trough is to our
west. These features will keep ushering southerly flow into the
region. PWATs are forecasted to remain on the higher end of the
climo scale for early August, ranging from 2-2.25". The
convective potential through sunset compares to the past few
days. Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms will
persist, then gradually dissipate this evening. The highest POPs
remain inland, closer to the best lift. SPC mesoanalysis shows
MLCAPEs in the 2,000-2,500 J/kg range along with decent low
level lapse rates across portions of our area. However, DCAPEs
are only a few hundred and shear isn't impressive. With that
said, the strongest storm could produce a strong wind gust. An
isolated severe with damaging winds due to precipitation
loading remains possible until this evening, mainly inland.
Lone storms continue to move fast enough and the lines are
drifting inland at a decent pace to limit the flooding
potential. However, if training persist in an area areal
flooding is a big concern, especially considering the already
soaked ground. Overnight the CAMs still hint at a chance of
showers and thunderstorms. But the timing and location varies
with each CAM. Hence, the overnight POP forecast will need to be
tweaked based on radar and model trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Friday: An unsettled weather pattern will persist over the Southeast
United States as the area remains positioned between high pressure
over the western Atlantic and a trough of low pressure inland. A
southwest flow between these two features will continue to advect
deep moisture to the area while an onshore sfc wind also draws
moisture from the Atlantic. Much like the past several days, the
morning should start off with coastal showers/thunderstorms that
shift onshore, especially along much of the Southeast South Carolina
coast. PWATs around 2.0 inches along with SBCAPE around 1250 J/kg
suggest a localized heavy rainfall threat with the potential for
minor flooding, starting off in the Quad County area early before
shifting inland. Precip activity should trend westward through the
afternoon as a seabreeze circulation develops and shifts inland with
most areas experiencing scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms
by late afternoon. A stronger and/or briefly severe thunderstorm can
not be ruled out during peak heating, but the overall threat will
remain low. In general, high temps should reach the upper 80s for
most areas.

Models indicate a Tutt Low shifting north off the Mid-Atlantic coast
late in the day, which should allow the Atlantic ridge to begin
building over the Southeast by early night. Given the expected
trend, a slightly quicker end to shower/thunderstorm activity should
occur during the evening and/or early night hours. Low temps should
range in the mid/upper 70s, coolest inland.

Saturday and Sunday: High pressure will strengthen over the western
Atlantic this weekend, building across the Southeast United States
and presenting a much more typical summertime environment than
experienced over the past several days. The bulk of deeper moisture
will shift inland and perhaps just north of the region, leading to
noticeably less shower and thunderstorm coverage through late
weekend into early next week. However, a slight chance to chance of
showers/thunderstorms will remain possible, mainly along an inland
moving seabreeze each afternoon. Given the building ridge aloft,
1000-850mb thicknesses will be marginally greater and suggest
overall high temps peaking in the lower 90s away from the immediate
coast. Overnight periods should be rain free for most locations with
lows temps ranging in the low/mid 70s inland to upper 70s near the
coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mid and upper ridging overhead early next week will drop S into the
middle of next week, as various short waves help to establish a
broad trough over much of the eastern half of the country. Similarly
at the surface the Atlantic ridge is bumped S-SE as a lee-side
trough develops. Moisture is limited by a deep offshore flow, but
should be sufficient enough to combine with lift from the sea breeze
and nearby trough, and typical summer instability to produce at
least a chance of showers and t-storms through the period. A slight
downslope component of winds and H8 temps as high as 19-20C will
support max temps at least in the lower 90s each day.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z TAFs: Showers and thunderstorms will impact both TAF sites
this afternoon. The areal coverage will be high enough that we
have TEMPO MVFR in both TAFs. Though, adjustments will likely be
made with the timing based on future radar trends. This evening
the coverage will decrease, so we are indicating VCTS
transitioning into VCSH. It's possible brief MVFR may occur
overnight and towards the end of the TAF period. But confidence
is too low to include this as a prevailing group at this time.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions are possible at both
CHS and SAV terminals Friday for occasional heavy rains and gusty
winds within scattered showers/thunderstorms. VFR conditions should
then prevail Saturday through Monday as high pressure builds over
the area, but an afternoon shower and/or thunderstorm will remain
possible each day and could produce brief flight restrictions.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: The coastal waters will remain sandwiched between high
pressure offshore and an inland trough. Expect southerly winds
maxing out ~15 kt. Seas will average 2-4 ft.

Friday through Tuesday: The area will remain along the western edge
of high pressure to start off the weekend with south/southeast winds
generally remaining at or below 10-15 kt outside shower/thunderstorm
activity. Southerly winds should gradually decrease and remain
around 10 kt or less late this weekend and early next week as the
Atlantic high builds over the coastal waters and dominates the
weather pattern. Shower and thunderstorm coverage should also become
noticeably less as well late this weekend into early next week.

Waterspouts: Given lighter wind fields there appears to be some
potential for isolated waterspouts each morning from Saturday
through Monday.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston SC
342 PM EDT Thu Aug 2 2018

GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040-042>045-047>052-031945-
Jenkins-Screven-Candler-Bulloch-Effingham-Tattnall-Evans-
Inland Bryan-Coastal Bryan-Inland Chatham-Coastal Chatham-Long-
Inland Liberty-Coastal Liberty-Inland McIntosh-Coastal McIntosh-
Allendale-Hampton-Inland Colleton-Dorchester-Inland Berkeley-
Inland Jasper-Beaufort-Coastal Colleton-Charleston-Coastal Jasper-
Tidal Berkeley-
342 PM EDT Thu Aug 2 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Georgia and
southeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Flooding: Abundant tropical moisture could lead to heavy rainfall
and localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Flooding: Abundant tropical moisture could lead to heavy rainfall
and localized flooding on Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please relay any reports of hazardous weather including, but not
limited to large hail, damaging winds and flooding to the National
Weather Service in Charleston at 1-888-383-2024.

AMZ330-350-352-354-374-031945-
Charleston Harbor-
Waters from South Santee River to Edisto Beach SC out 20 NM-
Waters from Edisto Beach SC to Savannah GA out 20 NM-
Waters from Savannah GA to Altamaha Sound GA out 20 NM, including
Grays Reef National Marine Sanctuary-
Waters from Savannah GA to Altamaha Sound GA extending from 20 to
60 NM-
342 PM EDT Thu Aug 2 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please relay any reports of hazardous weather including, but not
limited to large hail, damaging winds and flooding to the National
Weather Service in Charleston at 1-888-383-2024.

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