Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
624 PM EDT Wed Jun 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
The region will remain between Atlantic high pressure well the
east and an inland trough of low pressure through later this
week. The trough of low pressure is expected to settle over the
region and will likely persist into early next week. A cold
front could push into the region by the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
This evening: Scattered convection west of I-95 ongoing. Due to
multiple boundary collisions and ample CAPE, isolated strong to
severe storms will be possible for the next hour or two. Main
threat with any stronger storms will be strong winds and
possibly small hail. Convection should be over by around 10 pm,
or sooner.

Have tweaked PoPs to match areas well inland expected to receive
convection, but due to relatively low coverage, kept in the
chance range.

Temperatures have recently fallen considerably into the mid to
upper 80s across many areas, but given very humid airmass, still
expect them to only fall very slowly the rest of the night.
Minimum temperatures by morning will be in the mid to upper 70s
most areas away from the coast. Possibly not going much below 80
within a few miles of the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The biggest change in the overall pattern through the rest of the
week and into early this weekend is that the strong mid/upper level
ridge will gradually weaken. The ridge weakens in response to a
strong upper low that models have been persistently showing will form
over the central U.S. and slowly move east-northeast toward the
lower Great Lakes by the end of the period. In addition, deep layer
moisture increases some. The combination of lower mid/upper heights,
better deep layer moisture and some vorticity advection will result
in slightly higher PoPs, generally in the chance range, each
afternoon. The difficulty is that the best moisture does not
necessarily coincide with any weak upper level forcing each day,
which is why we left chance PoPs for mainly afternoon/evening. The
best deep layer moisture looks to be Thursday, but oddly, guidance
is reflecting slightly lower PoPs. Given the lower upper
heights and the potential for some large scale weak upper forcing,
there may be a slightly higher chance for strong to low end severe
storms each afternoon. However, the chances are not enough to
mention in the forecast or HWO at this point.

Temperatures will remain well above normal, but not quite as hot as
last few days as upper heights fall by about 5 decameters. Guidance
showing considerable drop in surface dewpoint temperatures on
Thursday, which seems a little suspect, but did keep upper 60s
inland and lower to mid 70s at the coast. The combination of
slightly lower dewpoints and temperatures will lead to lower heat
indices, but still in the lower 100s likely each afternoon. Lows
very warm, in the mid to upper 70s, to around 80 at the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The upper ridge will temporarily rebuild over the Southeast on
Sunday, causing temperatures to rise back into the middle 90s,
reducing convective coverage, and potentially requiring Heat
Advisories. A substantial upper vort max is forecast to drop
southeast into the area Monday, pushing a weak back door cold
front through the area Monday night or Tuesday. There is
increasing model agreement that temps will be a couple degrees
cooler next Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
18Z TAFs: Mainly VFR. Showers and thunderstorms have skirted
KSAV, but we will keep at least VCTS mention in there TAF
until ~22Z. Further north, convection has remained far away from
KCHS. But given the convective potential, we'll leave VCTS in
there TAF for now. Conditions are forecasted to quickly
improve late this evening as the convection decreases, with VFR
prevailing overnight.

Extended Aviation Outlook:
Through this weekend: Mostly VFR conditions. However, chances
for afternoon convection will be slightly higher through much of
the period, which will result in slightly higher chances for
brief convectively induced flight restrictions.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: South winds have increased due to diurnal enhancements
of the mixed layer at the beaches. Speeds should top out in the
15-20 kt range this evening, mainly within 10-15 nm. Winds are
expected to ease to the 10-15 kt range overnight. Seas will
generally average 2-4 ft.

LONG TERM MARINE...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...No highlights
expected through Monday. The marine area will remain between
Atlantic high pressure well to the east and lower pressure over
the land. This will produce southwest winds of mainly 15 knots
or less, highest during the afternoon and near the coast with
the sea breeze, with seas 2 to 3 feet. By the end of the
period/early next week, models are indicating the potential for
a cold front to approach from the north, which could increase
the pressure gradient enough to produce 15-20 knot winds.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...RFM
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston SC
632 PM EDT Wed Jun 20 2018

GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040-042>045-047>052-212245-
Jenkins-Screven-Candler-Bulloch-Effingham-Tattnall-Evans-
Inland Bryan-Coastal Bryan-Inland Chatham-Coastal Chatham-Long-
Inland Liberty-Coastal Liberty-Inland McIntosh-Coastal McIntosh-
Allendale-Hampton-Inland Colleton-Dorchester-Inland Berkeley-
Inland Jasper-Beaufort-Coastal Colleton-Charleston-Coastal Jasper-
Tidal Berkeley-
632 PM EDT Wed Jun 20 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Georgia and
southeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Excessive Heat: The combination of temperatures in the mid to upper
90s and moderate humidity could create heat index values exceeding
105 degrees each afternoon through Monday. Heat Advisories may be
required.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter assistance is not anticipated at this time.

AMZ330-350-352-354-374-212245-
Charleston Harbor-
Waters from South Santee River to Edisto Beach SC out 20 NM-
Waters from Edisto Beach SC to Savannah GA out 20 NM-
Waters from Savannah GA to Altamaha Sound GA out 20 NM, including
Grays Reef National Marine Sanctuary-
Waters from Savannah GA to Altamaha Sound GA extending from 20 to
60 NM-
632 PM EDT Wed Jun 20 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter assistance is not anticipated at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston SC
610 PM EDT WED JUN 20 2018

SCZ040-042-043-202300-
Allendale-Hampton-Inland Colleton-
610 PM EDT WED JUN 20 2018

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF HAMPTON...COLLETON
AND ALLENDALE COUNTIES...

At 610 PM EDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated
strong thunderstorms along a line extending from Walterboro to
Barton, and moving southeast at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...strong winds 45 to 55 mph and excessive cloud to ground
           lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. All outdoor activities should
           cease. Move indoors immediately.

Some locations in the path of these storms include...
Walterboro, Hampton, Yemassee, Lake Warren State Park, Colleton,
Varnville, Fairfax and Brunson.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Report damage directly to the Charleston National Weather Service at
1-888-383-2024 when it is safe to do so. You can also email your
report to nws.charlestonsc@noaa.gov.

&&

LAT...LON 3283 8040 3281 8041 3270 8071 3272 8098
      3275 8102 3272 8105 3273 8117 3295 8142
      3305 8110 3303 8108 3309 8093 3306 8090
      3309 8088 3311 8089 3314 8078
TIME...MOT...LOC 2210Z 295DEG 13KT 3290 8067 3292 8127

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston SC
623 PM EDT WED JUN 20 2018

GAZ137-138-140-141-202315-
Inland McIntosh-Inland Liberty-Coastal McIntosh-Long-
623 PM EDT WED JUN 20 2018

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF LIBERTY...MCINTOSH
AND LONG COUNTIES...

At 623 PM EDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated
strong thunderstorms along a line extending from Allenhurst to near
Donald, and moving southeast at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...strong winds 45 to 55 mph and excessive cloud to ground
           lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. All outdoor activities should
           cease. Move indoors immediately.

Some locations in the path of these storms include...
Hinesville, Ludowici, Tibet, Fort Stewart, Jones, Walthourville,
Riceboro and Flemington.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas. Do not drive your
vehicle through flooded roadways.

Excessive cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 15 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

Report damage directly to the Charleston National Weather Service at
1-888-383-2024 when it is safe to do so. You can also email your
report to nws.charlestonsc@noaa.gov.

&&

LAT...LON 3186 8158 3158 8127 3153 8166 3155 8167
      3155 8170 3159 8170 3161 8177 3166 8180
      3165 8182 3167 8185 3171 8188 3173 8191
      3175 8191 3176 8195 3179 8195 3180 8198
TIME...MOT...LOC 2223Z 322DEG 19KT 3180 8160 3177 8185

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston SC
639 PM EDT WED JUN 20 2018

SCZ043-044-202330-
Inland Colleton-Dorchester-
639 PM EDT WED JUN 20 2018

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF COLLETON AND
DORCHESTER COUNTIES...

At 639 PM EDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated
strong thunderstorms along a line extending from Indian Field to 6
miles southwest of Reevesville, and moving southeast at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...strong winds 45 to 55 mph and up to penny sized hail.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to plants,
           trees and crops is possible. Damage to windshields is
           unlikely.

Some locations in the path of these storms include...
Indian Field, Givhans Ferry State Park, Saint George, Dorchester, St.
George, Ridgeville, Harleyville and Reevesville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Excessive cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 15 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify. Be certain to monitor local radio and TV
stations as well as local cable TV outlets for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3309 8024 3291 8060 3316 8083 3332 8053
TIME...MOT...LOC 2239Z 297DEG 11KT 3321 8054 3315 8073

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
704 PM EDT WED JUN 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0632 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HAMPTON                 32.88N  81.13W
06/20/2018                   HAMPTON            SC   911 CALL CENTER

            THE ROOF OF A BUSINESS COLLAPSED IN HAMPTON. FIVE
            PEOPLE THAT WERE TRAPPED HAVE BEEN PULLED FROM THE
            BUILDING. IN A NEARBY BUILDING SOME CEILING TILES WERE
            BLOWN OUT OF THE BUILDING. ALSO SEVERAL TREES WERE
            KNOCKED DOWN IN AND AROUND TOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1800459

MTE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston SC
718 PM EDT WED JUN 20 2018

SCZ044-045-210000-
Inland Berkeley-Dorchester-
718 PM EDT WED JUN 20 2018

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF BERKELEY AND
DORCHESTER COUNTIES...

...MARINERS ON LAKE MOULTRIE SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR...

At 718 PM EDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated
strong thunderstorms along a line extending from near Harleyville to
Eadytown, and moving southeast at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...strong winds 45 to 55 mph and excessive cloud to ground
           lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. All outdoor activities should
           cease. Move indoors immediately.

Some locations in the path of these storms include...
Summerville, Moncks Corner, St. Stephen, Bonneau, Cross, Northern
Lake Moultrie, Old Santee Canal State Park and Eastern Lake Marion.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Boaters on Lake Moultrie should seek safe harbor immediately. If
caught on the open water, stay as low as possible and wear a personal
flotation device. Remember, if you can hear thunder you are at risk
for being struck by lightning.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas. Do not drive your
vehicle through flooded roadways.

Excessive cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 15 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3345 7988 3340 7985 3337 7980 3338 7979
      3333 7975 3303 8015 3326 8047 3327 8045
      3326 8043 3326 8036 3328 8035 3327 8030
      3330 8025 3344 8022 3345 8014 3348 8015
      3350 8012 3351 7999
TIME...MOT...LOC 2318Z 297DEG 13KT 3322 8038 3341 8015

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
729 PM EDT WED JUN 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0632 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HAMPTON                 32.88N  81.13W
06/20/2018                   HAMPTON            SC   911 CALL CENTER

            LIKELY A MICROBURST RESULTED IN A ROOF COLLAPSE OF THE
            BADCOCK FURNITURE STORE IN HAMPTON. THE FIVE PEOPLE THAT
            WERE INSIDE WERE PULLED FROM THE BUILDING AND NO ONE WAS
            INJURED. AN ADJACENT BUSINESS HAD THE ROOF LIFTED UP AND
            THE WINDOWS WERE BLOWN OUT. IN THE NEARBY FOOD LION SOME
            CEILING TILES WERE BLOWN OUT OF THE BUILDING. ALSO
            SEVERAL TREES WERE KNOCKED DOWN IN AND AROUND TOWN.

&&

CORRECTED REMARKS

EVENT NUMBER CHS1800459

MTE