Severe Thunderstorm Warning 28, NWS Charleston, SC

957 
WWUS52 KCHS 250209
SVSCHS

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1009 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2018

SCC015-250230-
/O.CON.KCHS.SV.W.0028.000000T0000Z-180625T0230Z/
Berkeley SC-
1009 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 PM EDT
FOR BERKELEY COUNTY...

At 1008 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 13 miles south of Kingstree to 10 miles east of Indian
Field, moving southeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to trees and powerlines.

Locations impacted include...
Moncks Corner, St. Stephen, Bonneau, Jamestown, Cross, Northern Lake
Moultrie, Old Santee Canal State Park and Eastern Lake Marion.

This warning includes I-26 between mile markers 190 and 196.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

These storms have a history of producing wind damage across the 
Midlands. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away 
from windows.
 
Report damage directly to the Charleston National Weather Service at
1-888-383-2024 when it is safe to do so.

&&

LAT...LON 3349 7995 3343 7987 3340 7985 3337 7980
      3338 7979 3332 7974 3330 7968 3306 8021
      3315 8032 3318 8030 3320 8033 3326 8036
      3328 8035 3327 8030 3330 8025 3345 8022
      3345 8014 3348 8015 3351 8008
TIME...MOT...LOC 0208Z 306DEG 33KT 3348 7976 3321 8037 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

712 
WWUS52 KCHS 250227
SVSCHS

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1027 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2018

SCC015-250235-
/O.EXP.KCHS.SV.W.0028.000000T0000Z-180625T0230Z/
Berkeley SC-
1027 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR BERKELEY COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT
1030 PM EDT...
                
The storms which prompted the warning have weakened and are expected 
to be below severe limits after 1030 pm. Therefore the warning will 
be allowed to expire.  However gusty winds, heavy rain and dangerous 
lightning are still likely with these thunderstorms.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
Charleston.

LAT...LON 3349 7995 3343 7987 3340 7985 3337 7980
      3338 7979 3332 7974 3330 7968 3306 8021
      3315 8032 3318 8030 3320 8033 3326 8036
      3328 8035 3327 8030 3330 8025 3345 8022
      3345 8014 3348 8015 3351 8008
TIME...MOT...LOC 0225Z 299DEG 32KT 3341 7961 3314 8022 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
827 PM EDT Sun Jun 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend across the region through Monday. A
cold front will drop south into the area Monday and linger near
or just south of the area through mid-week. Low pressure could
develop off the Southeast U.S. next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Early this evening: All is quiet right now with the sea breeze
progressing inland and just a few vertically challenged cumulus
across the forecast area. However, a glance at regional radar
imagery indicates convection is developing upstream and is on
track to approach the forecast area later tonight. This upstream
convection appears to be initiated and driven by some sort of
MCV and the prevailing deep layer flow puts it on track to head
toward at least the southeast South Carolina portion of the
forecast area. The environment ahead of this developing
convection is certainly unstable with MLCAPE on the order of
2,000-3,000 J/kg, which would seem to support further downstream
development. However, we are losing insolation after sunset but
the atmosphere is relatively untapped based on minimal
convection the past several days. Dry air in the mid and upper
levels results in DCAPE values around 1,000 J/kg which would
support at least some degree of a damaging wind threat. Hi-res
models such as the HRRR the the approaching convection
intensifying as it interacts with the sea breeze across the
Midlands. The idea is then that the convection progresses
further to the southeast and impacts mainly the Charleston Tri-
County region and Colleton County. Adjusted all forecast
parameters to favor such a solution. Current timing would bring
thunderstorms into the area around 9-10pm, then to the
Charleston County coast around midnight. The overall severe
threat is hard to judge given that thunderstorms will be coming
through in the late evening. But, since the atmosphere is
relatively untapped and DCAPE values are high, there is a
potential for damaging winds, especially if convection can get
organized along a line and become cold pool driven.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Few changes were made to ensure consistency with overnight
shift.

A cold front will approach from the northwest Monday and then
move south into the area Monday night before stalling nearby
through the rest of the period. This will mean a more unsettled
period with decent rain chances is expected Monday night into at
least Tuesday. Some of the storms could be strong late Monday
afternoon/evening, mainly across SC, given the high DCAPE values
(1000+ J/kg) and steep low to mid-level lapse rates.
Temperatures will remain above normal Monday ahead of the front
with heat indices peaking into the Heat Advisory range 105-108
inland, 108-112 coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Minor changes were made per regional coordination with NHC/WPC
on the potential for low pressure developing off the Southeast
U.S. coast.

The latest medium range model guidance suggests the stalled
cold front will dissipate as an offshore high pressure/inland
trough pattern likely sets up. Low pressure is expected to
develop off the SC/NC coast by late week and drop southwest to
somewhere near or offshore of the GA/FL coast over the weekend
per track coordination with NHC/WPC. Depending on the eventual
development and track of the low, increased rain chances and
breezy conditions could develop.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The main concern is the potential for thunderstorms to impact
KCHS this evening. Thunderstorms are developing upstream of the
area and are expected to move through late this evening from the
northwest. Confidence is increasing based on recent hi-res model
runs, and prevailing VCTS has been added starting at 03z. A
TEMPO is then in effect from 03-05z with low end gusty winds and
MVFR visibilities. It does not appear thunderstorms will be a
concern at KSAV. For the rest of the period, VFR conditions are
expected.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Risk for tstm impacts possible
Monday Night into Tuesday and again by late week into the
weekend depending on track of low pressure offshore.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: An inland surface trough and high pressure in the
Atlantic will drive the weather pattern. Winds will peak along
the immediate coastline through early this evening. Though,
locally higher gusts are possible along the SC coastline. By
late evening the winds will ease a few kt, then a second surge
in winds is possible further offshore, lasting until almost
daybreak. Additionally, winds closer to the coast should veer
more towards the west around daybreak as the land breeze
develops. Seas will average 2-3 ft, except 3-4 ft across the
Charleston waters during the peak winds. There is a slight
chance strong thunderstorms may develop inland this evening and
move offshore tonight, producing hazardous weather for mariners.

Monday through Friday: Few changes were made through mid-week
to ensure consistency with the overnight shift. Southerly winds
will prevail ahead of a cold front Monday with enhanced sea
breeze influences possible. Front will backdoor into the region
Monday Night into Tuesday. There is potential for low pressure
to develop off the Southeast U.S. coast by late week. Small
Craft Advisory conditions are not expected.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...BSH/ST
MARINE...MS/ST

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston SC
753 PM EDT Sun Jun 24 2018

GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040-042>045-047>052-260000-
Jenkins-Screven-Candler-Bulloch-Effingham-Tattnall-Evans-
Inland Bryan-Coastal Bryan-Inland Chatham-Coastal Chatham-Long-
Inland Liberty-Coastal Liberty-Inland McIntosh-Coastal McIntosh-
Allendale-Hampton-Inland Colleton-Dorchester-Inland Berkeley-
Inland Jasper-Beaufort-Coastal Colleton-Charleston-Coastal Jasper-
Tidal Berkeley-
753 PM EDT Sun Jun 24 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Georgia and
southeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Excessive Heat: The combination of temperatures in the mid to upper
90s and moderate to occasionally high humidity will likely cause
heat index values to exceed 105 degrees Monday. A Heat Advisory may
be needed.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter assistance is not anticipated at this time.

AMZ330-350-352-354-374-260000-
Charleston Harbor-
Waters from South Santee River to Edisto Beach SC out 20 NM-
Waters from Edisto Beach SC to Savannah GA out 20 NM-
Waters from Savannah GA to Altamaha Sound GA out 20 NM, including
Grays Reef National Marine Sanctuary-
Waters from Savannah GA to Altamaha Sound GA extending from 20 to
60 NM-
753 PM EDT Sun Jun 24 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter assistance is not anticipated at this time.