Special Weather Statement, NWS Caribou, ME

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
616 PM EDT Tue Aug 7 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will slowly cross the region this evening.
The front will become stationary near the coast late tonight
into Wednesday. High pressure will build over the area Thursday.
Another cold front will cross the region late Thursday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
615 PM Update...Tstm activity ongoing attm w/the heaviest action
across the Central and Downeast region. The 18z NAM12 and HRRR
were matching up fairly well per the radar, and used this blend
for shower/tstm placement. Adjustments were made to the pops to
account for what radar was depicting attm. Lots of cloud to
ground lightning. Storms have had a history of damaging winds
and very heavy rainfall from reports this afternoon. Decided
to keep the mention of winds/hail and heavy rainfall in the
forecast into the evening. Activity looks like it will wind down
later in the evening w/the loss of heating and strong forcing in
the mid levels. This forcing was pushing east as seen by
depiction of satl wv imagery w/the NAM12 matching up well w/the
placement. Temps/dewpoints were adjusted w/humid conditions
continuing w/dewpoints of upper 60s to lower 70s.

Previous Discussion...
Convective activity will gradually wind down this evening with
the loss of daytime heating. The front will reach the coast
after midnight with shower activity continuing to decrease. High
pressure building from Quebec will raise the threat of fog
after midnight, mostly in the northern half of the forecast area
where rainfall occurred today and dew points remain elevated.
There's not much in the way of cooler and drier air behind
front. Lows tonight will range from the lower 60s in the Saint
John Valley to around 70F in the Bangor area. It won't be as hot
in Bangor and towards the coast on Wednesday with forecast
highs in the low to mid 80s. The coast will receive onshore
winds to reduce afternoon temps. The stalled front and upstream
convective activity will generate increasing clouds in the
afternoon. There is a chance of showers towards the old frontal
boundary in the afternoon, but have decreased thunderstorm
coverage for tomorrow to isolated and may need to take out any
mention of thunderstorms in the next forecast package.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CWA wl lkly be in warm sector on Wed night. Guidance disagrees on
depth/timing of sfc low dvlpmnt along bndry. Expect shower and
possibly storms Wed night thru Thur as front mvs thru in the aftn
with upr trof lagging behind. Thu wl lkly feature one more day of
humid conditions bfr relief wl be felt on Friday in wake of
fropa.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Sat wl feature high pressure acrs the state and depending on
strength of sfc high may see dry wx thru the weekend. GFS is weaker
with sfc high as EC brings 1024mb high pressure thru CWA. Sfc high
mvs east early next week with next synoptic system appchg twd the
end of the pd.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Fog is expected to reduce vis and cigs from MLT and
HUL northward after midnight into Weds. morning. The fog
will burn off Weds morning and give way to VFR conditions at all
terminals. Fog may be a threat to roll into BHB by Weds evening.

SHORT TERM: VFR expected all terminals Wed afternoon.
Restrictions then drop to IFR Wed night starting in the evening
at BHB and BGR, and moving north through the overnight.
Restrictions continue through the day on Thu and possibly into
Fri morning. VFR then expected through the end of the period.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Thunderstorms are possible near the coast this
evening. Fog is expected to arrive after midnight into
Wednesday. Probabilities for the fog especially increase
Wednesday afternoon into the evening.

SHORT TERM: Areas of fog will remain over the water Wed night
through Thursday. Seas and winds will remain below SCA levels
through the end of the week.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

Near Term...Hewitt/MCW
Short Term...Farrar
Long Term...Farrar
Aviation...Hewitt/MCW/Farrar
Marine...Hewitt/MCW/Farrar

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Caribou ME
633 PM EDT Tue Aug 7 2018

MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032-082245-
Northwest Aroostook-Northeast Aroostook-Northern Somerset-
Northern Piscataquis-Northern Penobscot-Southeast Aroostook-
Central Piscataquis-Central Penobscot-Southern Penobscot-
Interior Hancock-Central Washington-Coastal Hancock-
Coastal Washington-Southern Piscataquis-Northern Washington-
633 PM EDT Tue Aug 7 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Coastal DownEast Maine, East
Central Maine, Eastern Maine, Far Northern Maine, Interior DownEast
Maine, North Central Maine, Northern Maine and West Central Maine.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

ANZ050>052-082245-
Coastal Waters from Eastport, ME to Schoodic Point, ME out 25 NM-
Coastal Waters from Schoodic Point, ME to Stonington, ME out 25 NM-
Intra Coastal Waters from Schoodic Point, ME to Stonington, ME-
633 PM EDT Tue Aug 7 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Caribou ME
627 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 AM     TSTM WND DMG     ALLAGASH                47.08N 69.04W
08/07/2018                   Aroostook          ME   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TWO TREES DOWN ON THE FARM ROAD.

&&

JAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Caribou ME
628 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 AM     TSTM WND DMG     ALLAGASH                47.08N 69.04W
08/07/2018                   Aroostook          ME   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE DOWN IN TOWN.

&&

JAH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Caribou ME
721 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2018

MEZ015-016-080000-
Interior Hancock-Southern Penobscot-
721 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WEST CENTRAL HANCOCK AND
SOUTHWESTERN PENOBSCOT COUNTIES...

At 721 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Thorndike,
moving east at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bangor, Ellsworth, Bucksport, Orono, Brewer, Hampden, Hermon, Veazie,
Dedham, Winterport, Orrington, Holden, Carmel, Eddington, Orland,
Newburgh, Bradley, Plymouth, Etna and Dixmont.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 95 between mile makers 167 and 191.
 State Highway 9 between Dixmont and Eddington.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

To report severe weather, contact the National Weather Service office
in Caribou Maine, by calling 1-800-909-
5970 or visit https://inws.ncep.noaa.gov/report.

LAT...LON 4463 6884 4468 6881 4469 6882 4469 6884
      4470 6884 4464 6918 4472 6920 4473 6927
      4475 6927 4489 6866 4462 6856 4460 6882
TIME...MOT...LOC 2321Z 256DEG 31KT 4466 6920

Kredensor

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