Special Weather Statement, NWS Caribou, ME

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1226 AM EDT Mon Jul 2 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will cross the area tonight with hot and humid
conditions expected Monday through Thursday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
915 PM Update...Weakening MCS continues to move over the upper
ridge towards the NW international border tonight and have
maintained a chance of thunderstorms into early Monday morning.
This weather is associated with the warm front which will bring
in the really hot and humid air for most of the forecast area
today. Highs will reach the upper 80s to lower 90s with high
humidity. The exception will be coastal Hancock and Washington
counties where stronger onshore flow will ensure lower
temperatures than yesterday. A weakening cold front may set off
more thunderstorm activity in northern zones Monday night, but
will not provide any relief from the heat and humidity. Onshore
flow will probably produce some fog and stratus towards the
coast Monday night.

Previous discussion...

The warmth and humidity today is but a preview of what is to be
expected from Monday onward. Temps have reached into the low
and mid 80s across most of the CWA this afternoon, with
dewpoints largely in the low to mid 60s. Stratocu overcast this
morning broke up for most places by midday, as expected, with
scattered cumulus and filtered sunshine through some high cirrus
this afternoon. Some spotty showers and perhaps a few weak
thunderstorms are expected this evening and overnight, mainly
for the Central Highlands and North Woods as a warm front pushes
northeastward across the CWA.

It is this warm front that usher in the truly hot and humid air.
There remains quite a bit of spread in forecast high temps for
Mon. The best chance of getting over 90 degrees may very well be
the North Woods, where models have the highest 925mb temps of
25-27F. High temps were lowered a degree or two in most
locations, but we still remain toward the higher end of
guidance, and above all MOS guidance. This slight lowering of
temps does keep us below Heat Advisory criteria, so headlines
are needed for Monday. It appears more likely that we reach that
criteria in the short term. Onshore flow developing Mon AM will
keep coastal Downeast cooler than today, and Bangor may struggle
to match today's high, as well.

A weakening front and upper shortwave will approach later Mon,
bringing another chance for some showers and thunderstorms.
Through the end of the near term period, 00z Tue, any precip
chances should remain limited to the northwestern CWA.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A weakening s/wv alf and sfc cold front apchg from Cntrl QB may
bring Nrn ptns of the Rgn isold to sct shwrs/tstms Mon ngt, but
given how warm mid atmos temps will be durg this tm, sig
shwrs/tstms may be capped from forming or movg much further E
than NW ptns of our FA. Of course, given the tropical nature of
the airmass, any shwr or tstm would result in a brief hvy
downpour of rn. Ovrngt lows will be quite warm, with many inland
lctns only falling to 65 to 70 deg F.

On Tue, what's left of the frontal bndry will dissipate ovr
Cntrl/Downeast ptns of the Rgn durg the aftn hrs as the the
mid/upper hi conts to build ovr the Rgn from the SW. There may
be enough remaining bndry cnvrg for sct aftn tstms ovr msly
Downeast Skies if there is sufficiently hi llvl dwpts to break
the cap of warm mid atmos temps. Otherwise, skies will become
mclr from NW to SE across Rgn durg the day Tue, with Hi temps
reaching 90+ deg ovr more of interior Downeast areas as well as
the rest of Cntrl/Nrn low trrn ptns of the Rgn as sfc winds
become more W. It now looks like there is a better chc of
apparent temps reaching heat adv criteria for ptns of our FA on
Tue rather than Mon, with possible issuance of this hdln by Mon
aftn. Otherwise, fair skies and another warm ngt is xpcted Tue
ngt.

A s/wv movg ESE from Nrn Can toward the Nrn Can Maritimes may
bring a weak cold front into Nrn/Cntrl ptns of the FA on Wed
with little in the way of clds or shwrs/tstms. If this happens,
the NE hlf of the FA may be a little cooler for aftn hi temps
(upper 80s to arnd 90 rather then lower to mid 90s). Both the
12z GFS and ECMWF models bring this front back across the N and
E as a warm front by Thu, with potentially 90+ deg heat for most
of the Rgn N of the immediate Downeast coast.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A much stronger cold front from Cntl Can finally begins to apch
from the NW late Thu ngt and crosses the Rgn on Fri with
better model to model tmg. Tstms ahead of this system will
begin to affect Nrn ptns of the FA later Thu ngt and then move
further S into Cntrl and Downeast areas during the course of the
day Fri, with greatest intensity currently projected ovr
Downeast areas Fri aftn given the latest tmg of this front, but
to soon to introduce enhanced tstm wording this far out in the
fcst from this vantage pt.

Hi temps Fri will be cooler due greater cld cvr and the presence
of sct to numerous shwrs/tstms and cool advcn behind the cold
front. Following the cold front much cooler and drier conditions
will follow for the Rgn Fri ovrngt and Sat. Longer range models
differ regarding whether a follow up s/wv alf from N Cntrl Can
will bring shwrs/tstms to msly Nrn ptns of the Rgn Sun aftn
crossing directly ovr the area, or just some clds if tracks N of
the Rgn. For now, we keep PoPs in the low chc cat across the N
hlf of the FA mainly for Sun aftn into eve with cont'd cooler hi
temps.
&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: 915 PM Update...
VFR conditions were being reported at all northern and downeast
Maine TAF sites at this hour. VFR is expected overnight at the
Aroostook county airports. Current radar imagery did show some
thunderstorm activity over Quebec province. This is expected to
make it into the western portions of the state after midnight
but weaken as it pushes east. A shower in the vicinity of the
airports is possible well after midnight. IFR ceilings are
expected to develop at KBGR and KBHB after 08z tonight. A
return to VFR conditions likely for all TAF sites later Mon AM
into Mon afternoon.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: Mainly VFR all TAF sites with IFR clgs/vsbys
possible ovr Downeast sites both late Mon ngt in ST cld cvr and
patchy fog. Also, brief MVFR/IFR clgs/vsbys will be possible
with any tstm or heavier shwrs movg ovr any TAF site spcly Mon
ngt N, Tue mid to late aftn Downeast, and ahead and along a cold
front at any TAF site late Thu ngt thru Fri aftn.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas are expected to remain below small craft
advisory levels through Monday. Areas of fog may reduce
visibility to 1 to 3 nm at times into Monday.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: No marine hdlns anticipated til at least
late Thu ngt into Fri when wv hts may reach 5 to 6 ft ovr our
outer MZs with a 10 to 20 kt SW wind fetch ahead of a cold
front. Marine fog will cont Mon  ngt thru Tue ngt and likely
aftwrds as moist tropical air flows ovr cold Gulf of ME waters.
Went with about 80 to 90 percent of WW3 wv guidance hts for fcst
wv hts with primary wv pds fcst to be msly between 6 to 8 sec.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.
&&

Near Term...Duda/Kredensor
Short Term...VJN
Long Term...VJN
Aviation...Duda/Kredensor/VJN
Marine...Duda/Kredensor/VJN

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Caribou ME
349 AM EDT MON JUL 2 2018

MEZ001-003-004-010-020945-
Northern Piscataquis-Northern Somerset-Central Piscataquis-Northwest
Aroostook-
349 AM EDT MON JUL 2 2018

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN SOMERSET...
NORTHWESTERN PISCATAQUIS AND NORTHWESTERN AROOSTOOK COUNTIES...

At 348 AM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from 23 miles west of Estcourt Station to 20
miles southwest of Billy-Jack Depot. Movement was east at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail are possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Allagash, Clayton Lake, Deboullie Mountain, Lac Frontiere, Daaquam,
Saint Pamphile, Saint Juste, Caucomgomoc Lake, Nine-mile Bridge,
Allagash Township, Baker Lake, Tamway, Churchill Dam, Billy-Jack
Depot, Chesuncook, Chamberlain Lake, Dickey, Telos Lake, Saint
Francis and Round Pond.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4743 6904 4726 6905 4718 6890 4724 6872
      4593 6919 4594 6967 4598 6968 4598 6973
      4596 7032 4606 7028 4607 7031 4615 7023
      4619 7029 4635 7019 4642 7005 4670 7000
      4746 6922
TIME...MOT...LOC 0748Z 265DEG 23KT 4752 6972 4599 7024

Walker