Severe Thunderstorm Warning 15, NWS Caribou, ME

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
610 PM EDT Sat Jul 28 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slowly press across the area tonight and continue
to the east on Sunday. High pressure will build south of the region
Monday and continue southeast on Tuesday. Low pressure will approach
Tuesday night and track west of the state on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
6:10 pm update: The latest SPC mesoscale analysis shows the
most unstable air and best environment for thunderstorms from
the central highlands northeast to the eastern Saint John
Valley. The loss of daytime heating should cause the convection
to become more tame over the next couple of hours, but still
some threat of strong to marginally severe storms for the next
couple of hours. Coverage of convection is quite small at this
time with just a couple of thunderstorms across the FA. Unless
storms can get a very strong updraft going like the one in the
eastern Saint John Valley did a few hours ago and the one now
moving into southwest Piscataquis County it will be difficult
for storms to turn severe as the wind aloft is quite strong and
can be seen in many of the anvils on both satellite and radar
this afternoon. Made some minor tweaks, mainly to the PoPs for
the next few hours based mostly on the latest radar trends.

Previous discussion:
Cells starting fire and build. Severe tstm moved from Stockholm
through Van Buren. Other pulse cells further s and w showing
signs of building. Good environment for the pulse storm will the
mid level cooling. There was good movement to these cells at 25
mph. Will continue the enhanced wording of hail and strong wind
gusts into the evening as that mid jet streak help to build the
storms. SPC meso analysis site showed good bulk shear of 40 kts
in 0-6km layer. SB CAPE around 1500 joules. Another of concern
will be back across the Penobscot Valley as SPC has shifted the
Marginal Risk line further s to cover this area. Activity will
weaken after dark w/the loss of heating. There should be more
activity later at night as the cold front begins to move across
the region later tonight into Sunday morning. The HRRR continued
to do fairly well along the the latest NAM and RAP. Decided on
this blend for the forecast into tonight. Will keep the mention
of tstms for the overnight period w/the 2nd round of activity.
Winds will start to veer to the w by sunrise Sunday. Overnight
temps will be in the 60s w/dewpoints falling back. Fog once
again will be a concern across the Downeast including the coast.
As a matter of fact, fog will be a factor across northern and
central areas by early Sunday morning w/the moist llvls.

Sunday will start out w/clouds and some fog. Improvement should
take place by mid morning as drier air works its way into the
region behind the cold front. The NAM and GFS should like QPF
across the far northern areas. CAPES of 700-1000 joules are
noted across the northern and western areas and 0-6km shear of
20+ kts is noted. Given what the sounding profiles indicate,
moisture looks limited to the 850mb layer. Therefore, decided to
go w/just showers and left the mention of tstms out of the
forecast. It will be seasonal w/daytime temps in the upper 70s
and lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure building toward the Mid-Atlantic region will bring a
mostly clear sky Sunday night. The air will be a bit dryer than it
has been recently with dew points in the mid 50s in most place,
as compared to the upper 60s which we have had for several
days. High pressure will build to our south on Monday bringing a
sunny to partly cloudy and warm day. The high will then slide
to the east, southeast on Tuesday as upper level ridging builds
across the northeast. This will bring a warmer day on Tuesday
with highs approaching the mid 80s in many areas under a mostly
sunny sky.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Our focus going into the mid-week period will be on a new trough of
low pressure digging south of the Great Lakes. This trough will
support surface low pressure developing in the eastern Lakes
Tuesday night then tracking up to our west on Wednesday.
Forecast guidance has been consistent in showing most of the
rain from this system falling along a frontal boundary across
far northern Maine Wednesday into Wednesday evening. Some
northern and western area may get over an inch of rain through
Wednesday evening with lighter more showery rains further south.
Showers should taper off late Wednesday night. Looking ahead to
Thursday into Friday, the subtropical Bermuda high is expected
to rebuild southeast of the Mid-Atlantic coast Thursday into
Friday pushing warm and humid air north into our region. A
frontal boundary will remain across northern areas bringing a
chance for showers and Thunderstorms late in the week. The best
chance for thundershowers will be on Friday as a shortwave
approaches from the west and pushes into our warm and humid air.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR for all terminals into early evening w/tstms in
the vcnty of the airfields n of KBHB. VFR will drop to MVFR and
then IFR overnight into early Sunday morning for low cigs and
vsbys. Conditions could hit LIFR for a time especially for KBGR
and KBHB. Improvement to VFR expected by mid morning on Sunday
for all terminals.

SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected to persist
Sunday night through Tuesday. Conditions will likely drop to IFR
Tuesday night as lower clouds move in, and remain IFR in low
clouds and showers on Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: The only headline is for a Beach Hazard for Paddle
Craft. The Paddle Risk ran high for Hancock County and moderate
for Washington County. Coordinated w/the USCG on a Beach Hazard
Statement for Sunday. The USCG wanted to have both coasts put
in the statement. The Beach Hazard runs through 8 PM Sunday.

Winds will be no higher than 15 kts into Sunday and this will
be across the outer zones. For the most part, stayed w/10 kts
through Sunday using a NAM/GFS blend. Seas were running 3-4 ft
and that should hold into Sunday. The local wave model was
handling things well w/keeping seas no higher than 4 ft.

SHORT TERM: A few winds gusts may approach 25 kt over the
offshore waters late Monday as high pressure builds south of the
region. Otherwise, winds and seas are expected to be below SCA
Monday through Tuesday. Winds may gust up to 25 kt Wednesday and
seas may build over 5 ft in response to an increasing SSW wind
as the subtropical high rebuilds during the mid to late week
period.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Beach Hazards Statement from Sunday morning through Sunday
     evening for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...None.

&&

Near Term...CB/Hewitt
Short Term...Bloomer
Long Term...Bloomer
Aviation...CB/Hewitt/Bloomer
Marine...CB/Hewitt/Bloomer

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Caribou ME
359 PM EDT Sat Jul 28 2018

MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-031-032-292000-
Northwest Aroostook-Northeast Aroostook-Northern Somerset-
Northern Piscataquis-Northern Penobscot-Southeast Aroostook-
Central Piscataquis-Central Penobscot-Southern Penobscot-
Interior Hancock-Central Washington-Southern Piscataquis-
Northern Washington-
359 PM EDT Sat Jul 28 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Maine, Eastern
Maine, Far Northern Maine, Interior DownEast Maine, North Central
Maine, Northern Maine and West Central Maine.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms may contain hail and strong winds into late evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

MEZ029-030-292000-
Coastal Hancock-Coastal Washington-
359 PM EDT Sat Jul 28 2018

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Coastal DownEast Maine.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

ANZ050>052-292000-
Coastal Waters from Eastport, ME to Schoodic Point, ME out 25 NM-
Coastal Waters from Schoodic Point, ME to Stonington, ME out 25 NM-
Intra Coastal Waters from Schoodic Point, ME to Stonington, ME-
359 PM EDT Sat Jul 28 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Caribou ME
155 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2018

MEZ001-004-281830-
Northern Piscataquis-Northwest Aroostook-
155 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL PISCATAQUIS AND
CENTRAL AROOSTOOK COUNTIES...

At 154 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles northwest of
Tamway, or 14 miles south of Clayton Lake, moving northeast at 30
mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Churchill Dam.

If you are on or near Churchill Lake, get out of the water and move
indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to
10 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you
are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter
now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 4629 6952 4639 6964 4668 6927 4646 6903
TIME...MOT...LOC 1754Z 231DEG 24KT 4640 6948

Kredensor

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Caribou ME
548 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2018

MEZ010-031-282245-
Southern Piscataquis-Central Piscataquis-
548 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN PISCATAQUIS
COUNTY...

At 548 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 10 miles west of
Blanchard, or 16 miles southwest of Greenville, moving northeast at
25 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Greenville, Monson, Blanchard, Elliottsville, Kingsbury Plantation,
Abbot, Shirley, Willimantic, Bowerbank and Onawa.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4554 6947 4527 6929 4519 6967 4528 6971
      4529 6971 4530 6970 4540 6974 4542 6973
TIME...MOT...LOC 2148Z 243DEG 21KT 4527 6979

Bloomer

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Caribou ME
610 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2018

MEZ002-282300-
Northeast Aroostook-
610 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY...

At 610 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Caribou, moving
northeast at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Caribou, Limestone, Woodland, Loring, Connor, Caswell and Hamlin.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4708 6782 4707 6779 4691 6779 4687 6805
      4692 6809 4709 6784
TIME...MOT...LOC 2210Z 239DEG 18KT 4690 6805

Bloomer