Special Weather Statement, NWS Columbia, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
107 PM EDT Mon Aug 6 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper ridge will extend westward from the Atlantic into our
region through Wednesday. This will allow a return to more
typical summerlike weather with scattered mainly afternoon and
evening thunderstorms, along with a warming trend. The upper
ridge will gradually weaken later this week as an upper trough
digs into the central US.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Upper ridge centered to our SW. Upper disturbance moving SE
into W NC along the periphery of the upper ridge. Surface
trough across the central Carolinas and CSRA, along which
convection has developed rapidly in the past hour. Will expect
convective activity to our north ahead of the upper disturbance
to shift SE towards the N FA while additional convection
possible elsewhere along the surface trough. Think chance to
good chance POPs looks ok, and will trend POPs a little higher
towards the N/NE FA. Moderate instabilities and DCAPE values
around 1000 J/KG could provide an isolated severe wind gust
threat. Decent PW values 1.8-1.9 inches could produce a locally
heavy rain threat in any slow moving, training, or merging
cells, although current indications of decent cell movement
could preclude threat. Expect convective activity to gradually
dissipate early tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Center of the upper ridge remains just south of the cwa
through Tuesday night. At the surface, a weak lee side trough
will be over the region. Pwat values remain high, indicating
plenty of moisture will remain in place for the development of
diurnal scattered showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures
remaining around normal for the most part.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Upper ridging remains across the region on Wednesday, with the
center up the upper high off to our southwest. By Thursday, the
ridge will become suppressed further south as a deepening east
coast trough takes hold across the Mid-Atlantic. Main upper flow
over the cwa will still be more westerly through Thursday.
However by the weekend, the trough deepens even more, with the
trough axis west of the area. This will bring a southwesterly
upper flow across the southeastern states through the weekend.
This pattern will maintain a chance of showers and thunderstorms
each afternoon through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Surface trough across the central Carolinas and CSRA, along
which convection has developed rapidly in the past hour. Will
expect scattered TSRA through the afternoon and evening,
gradually dissipating early tonight. Variable and gusty winds
possible near TSRA. Will monitor radar trends for best TAF
representation. Patchy fog/stratus possible late tonight/early
tuesday. Will evaluate threat in later TAF issuances, while
concentrating on the near term convective threat.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Mainly diurnal scattered
thunderstorms are forecast each day. Widespread stratus and fog
may occur during the late nights and early mornings.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Columbia SC
242 AM EDT Mon Aug 6 2018

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-070645-
Lincoln-McDuffie-Columbia-Richmond-Burke-Lancaster-Chesterfield-
McCormick-Newberry-Fairfield-Kershaw-Edgefield-Saluda-Lexington-
Richland-Lee-Aiken-Sumter-Barnwell-Orangeburg-Calhoun-Clarendon-
Bamberg-
242 AM EDT Mon Aug 6 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Midlands of South Carolina
and the Central Savannah River area of Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
152 PM EDT MON AUG 6 2018

SCZ027-030-036-037-061830-
Orangeburg SC-Lexington SC-Aiken SC-Calhoun SC-
152 PM EDT MON AUG 6 2018

...Strong Thunderstorms Will Impact Portions of northwestern
Orangeburg...south central Lexington...northeastern Aiken and west
central Calhoun Counties Until 230 PM EDT....

At 151 PM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated
strong thunderstorms along a line extending from 11 miles west of St.
Matthews to 11 miles southwest of Gaston, moving southeast at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...gusty winds 40 to 50 mph, pea sized hail, excessive cloud
           to ground lightning and localized minor flooding.

  IMPACT...expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to plants,
           trees and crops is possible. Damage to windshields is
           unlikely. All outdoor activities should cease. Move
           indoors immediately. Localized, minor flooding of low
           lying and poor drainage areas is also possible.

Some locations in the path of these storms include...
Orangeburg, Brookdale, North, Salley, Neeses, Perry, Woodford,
Livingston, Wilkinson Heights and Edisto.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Move indoors immediately.  Excessive cloud to ground lightning is
occurring with these storms. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning.

These storms may intensify. Monitor NOAA Weather Radio, local radio
and television stations for additional information and possible
warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

This includes Interstate 26 between mile markers 135 and 149.

LAT...LON 3348 8077 3355 8134 3375 8133 3368 8083
TIME...MOT...LOC 1751Z 309DEG 10KT 3367 8097 3372 8127

RC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
205 PM EDT MON AUG 6 2018

GAZ064-065-061830-
Richmond GA-Columbia GA-
205 PM EDT MON AUG 6 2018

...Strong Thunderstorms Will Impact Portions of central Richmond and
southeastern Columbia Counties Until 230 PM EDT....

At 203 PM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm over Fort Gordon, moving southwest at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...gusty winds 40 to 50 mph and localized minor flooding.

  IMPACT...expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Localized minor flooding of low
           lying and poor drainage areas is also possible.

Some locations in the path of this storm include...
Grovetown, Evans, Martinez, Fort Gordon, Hephzibah, Harlem and
Blythe.

Heavy rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may cause localized
flooding. Rainfall amounts from one half inch up to one half have
already occurred. Additional rainfall amounts of up to 1 inch are
possible near Ft. Gordon and Grovetown. Do not drive your vehicle
through flooded roadways.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 20 in Georgia between mile markers 188 and 200.
 Interstate 520 in Georgia between mile markers 1 and 7.

LAT...LON 3353 8218 3353 8202 3341 8202 3327 8211
      3340 8233 3340 8234
TIME...MOT...LOC 1803Z 043DEG 18KT 3342 8217

LCV