Special Weather Statement, NWS Columbia, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
248 PM EDT Tue Jul 3 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered off the Mid-Atlantic Coast will direct an
onshore flow into the forecast area through Friday. There will
be increased moisture in the forecast area Wednesday and
Thursday associated with a trough. There also will be increased
moisture because of a cold front moving into the region over
the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Moisture in an onshore flow plus a developing surface trough
should help support thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight.
There should also be some cooling aloft ahead of a weak mid-
level shortwave trough pushing inland from the coast. Still
moisture should remain somewhat shallow and expect h7
temperatures only lowering to about 9 C per the last RAP. We
have forecasted chance pops. Coverage may be greatest in the
south section late this afternoon associated with the seabreeze
front and slightly lower mid-level temperatures. Moderate
instability associated with strong diurnal heating plus some
dry air in the mid levels aiding downdrafts indicates near
severe thunderstorm wind gusts are possible. The thunderstorm
chance should diminish tonight with the loss of heating. The
temperature guidance was close. Expect peak heat index values
near 105 this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The upper level pattern on Wednesday and Thursday will feature
an upper high to our north and upper low to our south gradually
shifting westward promoting easterly 500 mb flow into the
forecast area. At the surface, there will be weak inverted
troughing promoting an onshore flow. The threat for organized
severe weather both days appears minimal given weak to moderate
instability and weak shear, but an isolated severe threat is
possible. Locally heavy downpours will also be possible given
PWAT values around 1.8 inches. High temperatures on Wednesday
and Thursday will generally be in the lower to middle 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A fairly average summer day is on tap for Friday with near
normal temperatures and scattered diurnal thunderstorms
expected. A cold front will move into the forecast area from
the northwest on Saturday bringing increased chances of showers
and thunderstorms. The front will be near the southern vicinity
of the forecast area on Sunday with high pressure ridging into
the area north from the front. The front will become more
diffuse early next week while surface high pressure ridges into
the area. The most favorable area for showers and thunderstorms
Sunday and Monday will be in the southern portion of the area
closer to the frontal boundary. High temperatures will be near
normal Saturday and will drop below normal on Sunday in the wake
of the front. Temperatures will moderate back to near normal
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions are expected outside of scattered diurnal
thunderstorms.

Moisture in an onshore flow plus a developing surface trough
should help support thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight.
There should also be some cooling aloft ahead of a weak mid-
level shortwave trough pushing inland from the coast. Still
moisture should remain somewhat shallow and expect h7
temperatures only lowering to about 9 C per the last RAP. Expect
scattered thunderstorms with the chance too low to include in
the terminal forecasts at this this. Moderate instability
associated with strong diurnal heating plus some dry air in the
mid levels aiding downdrafts indicates near severe thunderstorm
wind gusts are possible with any thunderstorms.

Low-level moisture in an onshore flow combined with nocturnal
cooling may result in stratus and fog late tonight. However,
deep moisture should limit net radiational cooling and expect
some wind so there is uncertainty. There was consistency with
most of the guidance maintaining VFR conditions so we forecasted
just scattered stratocumulus around 800 feet during the early
morning hours.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible each day in
early morning fog and stratus with diurnal thunderstorms.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Columbia SC
513 AM EDT Tue Jul 3 2018

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-040915-
Lincoln-McDuffie-Columbia-Richmond-Burke-Lancaster-Chesterfield-
McCormick-Newberry-Fairfield-Kershaw-Edgefield-Saluda-Lexington-
Richland-Lee-Aiken-Sumter-Barnwell-Orangeburg-Calhoun-Clarendon-
Bamberg-
513 AM EDT Tue Jul 3 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Midlands of South Carolina
and the Central Savannah River area of Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening, but the severe threat is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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