Special Weather Statement, NWS Columbia, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
235 PM EDT Sat Jun 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak frontal boundary will dissipate over the CSRA overnight.
High pressure and a building upper level ridge will control the
region for Sunday into late next week. This scenario will keep
chances of mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms in the
forecast with rising temperatures through late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure shifting offshore in the mid-Atlantic will bring
the FA moist, easterly surface flow through the day. Water vapor
imagery shows a slot of drier air aloft in the SC Piedmont.
PWAT values are greater than 1.75 inches from the CSRA
southward and in the Pee Dee. A leftover surface trough/diffuse
front remains over the CSRA. Cumulus fields on satellite show
that there is still some weak convergence associated with the
front. However without strong surface forcing present we can
expect convection today to be scattered in nature with highest
coverage in the CSRA and Pee Dee where moisture is highest.

Severe potential: The environment supports localized areas of
damaging winds and hail this afternoon. The air mass will be
strongly unstable today with mlCAPE values around or above 3000
J/kg. DCAPE values above 1000 J/kg in the CSRA indicates
damaging downburst winds will be the main threat in pulse-type
thunderstorms. Moderate lapse rates in the hail growth zone and
wet-bulb zero heights around 12 to 13 kft suggest large hail
will also be possible.

Expect highs this afternoon generally in the mid 90s.
Convective debris clouds should prevent ideal radiational
cooling conditions tonight and keep lows in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Upper level ridge will be centered west of the forecast area on
Sunday. Surface high pressure over the western Atlantic will
continue ridging into the southeastern states. Moderate to strong
instability to develop in the afternoon...so scattered diurnal
convection expected, especially across the CSRA and southern
Midlands. Could also see convection develop along a sea breeze
front as it moves into the eastern Midlands. We have pops in the
20 to 30 percent range during the afternoon and early evening.

The upper level ridge will be centered over the area on Monday
and may result in fewer afternoon and evening thunderstorms.
Models indicated slightly weaker instability with warmer
temperatures aloft. We kept slight chance pops across the
forecast area. Afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s on Sunday
will warm to the mid and even some upper 90s for Monday.
Nighttime lows will be in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The upper level ridge over the region Tuesday should limit
convection with model soundings indicating mid level cap and
weak instability. Warming temperatures with max temps in the mid
to upper 90s. Could see a few locations hit the century mark.
We could have Heat Advisory concerns Tuesday through Thursday
with heat indices approaching 110F.  The upper ridge center
shifts to Florida and the Gulf coast region mid to late next
week as an upper trough crosses the northeastern states. The GFS
brings a backdoor into the region Thursday and Friday while the
ECMWF holds the front north of our area. At any rate, both
models indicate increasing moisture and moderate instability for
the end of next week. Afternoon highs are expected to be in the
low to mid 90s Friday and Saturday with lows continuing in the
70s.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Predominantly VFR conditions with scattered diurnal convection.

Satellite imagery shows a weak boundary around OGB/AGS/DNL
which will remain nearly stationary through the period. This
will be a focusing mechanism for diurnal convection with
greatest thunderstorm chances in AGS/DNL/OGB. Have remained with
VCTS for those sites through the afternoon and evening hours
and will adjust as confidence warrants. The environment today
supports strong and gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall from
thunderstorms. Convection will diminish during the late evening
hours with debris cloudiness through the end of the period. Fog
appears unlikely at this time with convective debris clouds
preventing ideal radiational cooling conditions.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible each day in
early morning fog and mainly afternoon and evening
thunderstorms.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Columbia SC
439 AM EDT Sat Jun 16 2018

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-170845-
Lincoln-McDuffie-Columbia-Richmond-Burke-Lancaster-Chesterfield-
McCormick-Newberry-Fairfield-Kershaw-Edgefield-Saluda-Lexington-
Richland-Lee-Aiken-Sumter-Barnwell-Orangeburg-Calhoun-Clarendon-
Bamberg-
439 AM EDT Sat Jun 16 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Midlands of South Carolina
and the Central Savannah River area of Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Isolated severe thunderstorms possible late this afternoon and
evening. The main threat will be damaging wind. Large hail is also
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
504 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2018

GAZ077-162145-
Burke GA-
504 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2018

...Strong Thunderstorms Will Impact Portions of central Burke County
Until 545 PM EDT....

At 503 PM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated
strong thunderstorms along a line extending from near Sardis to near
Perkins, moving northwest at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...gusty winds 40 to 50 mph, pea sized hail and localized
           minor flooding.

  IMPACT...expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to plants,
           trees and crop is possible. Damage to windshields is
           unlikely. Localized, minor flooding of low lying and poor
           drainage areas is also possible.

Some locations in the path of these storms include...
Waynesboro, Sardis and Girard.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify. Monitor NOAA Weather Radio, local radio
and television stations for additional information and possible
warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3293 8179 3293 8181 3295 8182 3294 8183
      3295 8186 3292 8196 3292 8205 3306 8222
      3310 8184 3301 8162 3300 8162 3291 8176
TIME...MOT...LOC 2103Z 118DEG 17KT 3292 8175 3292 8189

RC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
521 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2018

SCZ031-038-162200-
Clarendon SC-Sumter SC-
521 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2018

...Strong Thunderstorms Will Impact Portions of northeastern
Clarendon and east central Sumter Counties Until 600 PM EDT....

At 521 PM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm 7 miles southwest of Sardis, or 15 miles west of
Lake City, moving west at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...strong winds 45 to 55 mph, up to penny sized hail and
           localized minor flooding.

  IMPACT...expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to plants,
           trees and crop is possible. Damage to windshields is
           unlikely. Localized, minor flooding of low lying and poor
           drainage areas is also possible.

Some locations in the path of this storm include...
Turbeville, Mayesville and Shiloh.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may cause localized
flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

This storm may intensify. Monitor NOAA Weather Radio, local radio and
television stations for additional information and possible warnings
from the National Weather Service.

&&

This includes Interstate 95 between mile markers 130 and 144.

LAT...LON 3381 8019 3400 8022 3400 8019 3396 8018
      3395 8017 3400 8008 3401 7991 3398 7990
      3395 7998 3388 7994 3389 7988 3388 7988
TIME...MOT...LOC 2121Z 077DEG 13KT 3395 8000

RC