Severe Thunderstorm Warning 135, NWS Columbia, SC

214 
WWUS52 KCAE 220427
SVSCAE

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1227 AM EDT SUN JUL 22 2018

GAC181-SCC037-065-220500-
/O.CON.KCAE.SV.W.0135.000000T0000Z-180722T0500Z/
Lincoln GA-Edgefield SC-McCormick SC-
1227 AM EDT SUN JUL 22 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM EDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL LINCOLN...EDGEFIELD AND NORTHEASTERN MCCORMICK
COUNTIES...

At 1226 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 11 miles west of
Edgefield, or 15 miles north of Martinez, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Edgefield, McCormick, Johnston, Trenton, Parksville, Plum Branch and
Modoc.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection seek shelter inside a sturdy building and stay
away from windows.

Severe thunderstorms can produce large capsizing waves. If on or near
Lake Strom Thurmond move into dock and take shelter!

&&

LAT...LON 3397 8230 3398 8224 3397 8218 3399 8215
      3398 8205 3395 8204 3398 8190 3389 8187
      3386 8183 3383 8170 3379 8168 3368 8183
      3371 8231 3392 8235 3396 8233 3396 8231
TIME...MOT...LOC 0426Z 267DEG 31KT 3374 8213 

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

awp

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1154 PM EDT Sat Jul 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A deepening upper trough and surface boundary will lead to
chances of showers and thunderstorms, some possibly severe,
tonight and Sunday. The deep upper trough will then remain over
the E CONUS through late next week, providing a continued good
chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Negatively tilted upper trough over the Ohio Valley into west
Carolina this evening. Convection developing upstream ahead in
the foothills of SC/NC this evening as suggested by high
resolution models. SPC has put the western portion of the CWA in
a severe thunderstorm watch until 2 am. Strong mid level short
wave over east TN/NW GA moving east-southeast and models
suggest increasing large scale ascent across the region this
evening into the overnight. The air mass appears to be capped at
the moment with limited cumulus across the area, especially in
the CSRA. However, model soundings indicate moderate to strong
CAPE thru the evening and given strong dynamics, the cap is
likely to break at some point. Increasing deep layer shear
associated with mid level jet advecting northeast from central
GA and dry air aloft support severe thunderstorms with damaging
wind main threat. DCAPE is around 1500 J/Kg. Large hail also
possible. Expect at least scattered convection late this evening
into the overnight well ahead of a surface cold front which is
expected to move into the area around daybreak. A watch may be
needed east of the current watch at some point and will monitor
trends as the storms move through the Piedmont. Overnight lows
will generally be in the low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
On Sunday, the upper low over the Ohio Valley will continue to
drift southward as deep ridging over the Atlantic blocks the
eastward progression of systems. The main trof axis will be
close enough to the area that advection of vorticity should be
generally minimal, and the dry air that has been entrained on
the south and west side will move over central SC and the CSRA.
This will keep showers and thunderstorms spotty during the
afternoon despite supportive mid level tamps and lapse rates
for convection. A strong storm or two cannot be ruled out, but
coverage will be on the low side for July.

By Monday, the upper low will have dropped into southern Georgia,
and deep southerly to southeasterly flow will become established.
Model guidance has pretty high chances of rain, but it probably
won't be until late in the day with mid level dry air in place
during the morning.

Moistening will continue into Tuesday, and with little change in the
overall pattern to the continued strong Atlantic block, chances of
thunderstorms look higher than average once again.

Temps will be a couple of degrees below normal during the afternoons
with considerable cloud cover expected, while min temps will be near
normal in the lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
More of the same is expected Wednesday and Thursday as the upper low
moves little. Numerous afternoon and evening thunderstorms are again
expected to develop, with afternoon max temps remaining around 90,
give or take a couple of degrees.

The upper low may weaken by the end of the week, allowing for a
little drying, but typical July afternoon/evening convection
would still be expected as modest instability develops each
afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Main near term concern is cluster of severe thunderstorm
activity currently to the north of DNL/AGS, and west of CAE/CUB,
moving to the ESE. This activity could affect those TAF sites
by around 0430Z. Will indicate a tempo group to handle. Strong
gusty winds and hail will be possible with these storms.

Otherwise, will expect the convective activity to gradually weaken
as it moves across the forecast area later tonight. Some questions
regarding stratus development in its wake. For now, will indicate a
tempo group for MVFR CIGs.

Some questions regarding extent of convective coverage Sunday as
drier air moves into the region.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorms Sunday. Increased chance rain and possible
associated restrictions from Monday thru Thursday. Late
night/morning fog/stratus possible.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Columbia SC
920 PM EDT Sat Jul 21 2018

GAZ040-063>065-SCZ015-018-020-021-025-026-230130-
Lincoln-McDuffie-Columbia-Richmond-Lancaster-McCormick-Newberry-
Fairfield-Edgefield-Saluda-
920 PM EDT Sat Jul 21 2018

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 300 IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Midlands of South Carolina
and the Central Savannah River area of Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Isolated severe thunderstorms possible on Sunday afternoon and
evening. Heavy rain with localized flooding possible Monday through
Wednesday with an upper low situated just west of the forecast area
with deep moist, southerly flow over the region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

GAZ077-SCZ016-022-027>031-035>038-041-230130-
Burke-Chesterfield-Kershaw-Lexington-Richland-Lee-Aiken-Sumter-
Barnwell-Orangeburg-Calhoun-Clarendon-Bamberg-
920 PM EDT Sat Jul 21 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Midlands of South Carolina
and the Central Savannah River area of Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Severe thunderstorms possible tonight with damaging wind gusts and
hail the primary threats. However, an isolated tornado cannot be
ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Isolated severe thunderstorms possible on Sunday afternoon and
evening. Heavy rain with localized flooding possible Monday through
Wednesday with an upper low situated just west of the forecast area
with deep moist, southerly flow over the region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
957 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2018

SCZ018-220245-
McCormick SC-
957 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2018

...Strong Thunderstorms Will Impact Portions of northwestern
McCormick County Until 1045 PM EDT....

...Boaters on Lake Strom Thurmond Should Seek Safe Harbor...

At 955 PM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm near Lake Strom Thurmond, or 13 miles southeast
of Elberton, moving east at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...strong winds 45 to 55 mph and up to penny sized hail.

  IMPACT...expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to plants,
           trees and crops is possible. Damage to windshields is
           unlikely.

Some locations in the path of this storm include...
Lake Strom Thurmond, Bobby Brown State Park, Willington and Mount
Carmel.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Boaters on Lake Strom Thurmond and Lake Russell should move to shore
and seek shelter.
Strong, erratic wind gusts and lightning are possible. If you can
hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3407 8253 3407 8251 3408 8248 3406 8245
      3406 8233 3397 8230 3396 8257 3398 8258
      3399 8257 3400 8259 3402 8259
TIME...MOT...LOC 0155Z 269DEG 36KT 3402 8266

awp

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1032 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2018

SCZ016-220300-
Chesterfield SC-
1032 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2018

...Strong Thunderstorms Will Impact Portions of northwestern
Chesterfield County Until 1100 PM EDT....

At 1031 PM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm over Pageland, or 17 miles southeast of Monroe,
moving east at 30 mph.

  HAZARD...strong winds 45 to 55 mph and excessive cloud to ground
           lightning.

  IMPACT...expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. All outdoor activities should
           cease. Move indoors immediately.

Some locations in the path of this storm include...
Pageland, Chesterfield, Ruby and Mount Croghan.

Move indoors immediately.  Excessive cloud to ground lightning is
occurring with this storm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3470 7998 3468 8046 3478 8049 3482 8042
      3481 8003
TIME...MOT...LOC 0231Z 250DEG 26KT 3476 8041

WRS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1140 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2018

SCZ025>027-220430-
Lexington SC-Saluda SC-Edgefield SC-
1140 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2018

...Strong Thunderstorms Will Impact Portions of west central
Lexington...southern Saluda and northern Edgefield Counties Until
1230 AM EDT....

At 1140 PM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm near Saluda, or 16 miles west of Batesburg,
moving east at 30 mph.

  HAZARD...strong winds 45 to 55 mph and excessive cloud to ground
           lightning.

  IMPACT...expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. All outdoor activities should
           cease. Move indoors immediately.

Some locations in the path of this storm include...
Batesburg, Batesburg-Leesville, Saluda, Johnston, Ridge Spring,
Leesville, Monetta and Ward.

Move indoors immediately.  Excessive cloud to ground lightning is
occurring with this storm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3396 8203 3396 8201 3402 8196 3405 8146
      3381 8150 3388 8157 3380 8167 3384 8209
TIME...MOT...LOC 0340Z 272DEG 25KT 3396 8184

WRS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1144 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2018

GAZ040-SCZ018-220430-
Lincoln GA-McCormick SC-
1144 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2018

...Strong Thunderstorms Will Impact Portions of Lincoln and
northwestern McCormick Counties Until 1230 AM EDT....

...Boaters on Lake Strom Thurmond Should Seek Safe Harbor...

At 1143 PM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm near Tignall, or 10 miles northeast of
Washington, moving east at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...gusty winds 40 to 50 mph.

  IMPACT...expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include...
McCormick, Lincolnton, Lake Strom Thurmond, Bobby Brown State Park,
Willington and Mount Carmel.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Boaters on Lake Strom Thurmond should move to shore and seek shelter.
Strong, erratic wind gusts and lightning are possible. If you can
hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3398 8265 3398 8264 3397 8264 3398 8261
      3396 8256 3401 8259 3403 8258 3402 8232
      3369 8224 3368 8228 3370 8230 3369 8234
      3373 8254 3383 8260 3386 8257 3387 8258
      3386 8261
TIME...MOT...LOC 0343Z 283DEG 18KT 3388 8266

awp