Lake Wind Advisory 2, NWS Columbia, SC

Burke County, GA, Columbia County, GA, Lincoln County, GA, McDuffie County, GA, Richmond County, GA, Aiken County, SC, Bamberg County, SC, Barnwell County, SC, Calhoun County, SC, Chesterfield County, SC, Clarendon County, SC, Edgefield County, SC, Fairfield County, SC, Kershaw County, SC, Lee County, SC, Lexington County, SC, McCormick County, SC, Newberry County, SC, Richland County, SC, Saluda County, SC, Sumter County, SC

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WWUS72 KCAE 072225
NPWCAE

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Columbia SC
525 PM EST Wed Feb 7 2018

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-
072330-
/O.CAN.KCAE.LW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-180207T2300Z/
Lincoln-McDuffie-Columbia-Richmond-Burke-Lancaster-Chesterfield-
McCormick-Newberry-Fairfield-Kershaw-Edgefield-Saluda-Lexington-
Richland-Lee-Aiken-Sumter-Barnwell-Orangeburg-Calhoun-Clarendon-
Bamberg-
Including the cities of Lincolnton, Thomson, Martinez, Evans, 
Hephzibah, Waynesboro, Lancaster, Elgin, Lancaster Mill, Cheraw, 
Pageland, Mccormick, Newberry, Winnsboro, Winnsboro Mills, 
Camden, Lugoff, Edgefield, Johnston, Saluda, Ridge Spring, 
Seven Oaks, West Columbia, Cayce, Lexington, Red Bank, Oak Grove,
Columbia, Bishopville, Aiken, North Augusta, Sumter, Barnwell, 
Williston, Blackville, Orangeburg, Brookdale, St. Matthews, 
Manning, Summerton, Bamberg, and Denmark
525 PM EST Wed Feb 7 2018

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Columbia has cancelled the Lake
Wind Advisory.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
638 AM EST Wed Feb 7 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach from the west today bringing
increasing chances of rain to the area. The cold front will
move through the area this evening. High pressure will ridge
into the area from the north briefly Thursday. Moisture will
increase again Friday ahead of a warm front. The front and
associated moisture will be in the area Friday night and
Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Surface low pressure centered over the Tennessee Valley this
morning will shift northeastward toward New England today
bringing a cold front into the forecast area this afternoon.
Moisture will deepen across the area with precipitable water
values peaking at around 1.5 to 1.6 inches. High resolution
models bring initial rain showers into the area this morning
then show activity diminishing some from late morning through
midday. The main line of showers ahead of the front is then
expected to come through the area from around 18Z to 23Z with
trailing showers in its wake. Expect heavy downpours at times
due to the moisture advection in a 50-kt h85 jet. QPF amounts
are generally forecast around half an inch to an inch. Mixing
should be limited due to cloudiness and rain, but the Bufkit
momentum transfer tool and GFS LAMP suggest general gusts of 20
to 25 mph. The forecast area is in the SPC general thunder
category today. 0-6 km shear values are strong at up to around
60 knots during the late afternoon. Instability will be the
limiting factor with the most favorable LI values only reaching
0 to -1 for a few hours during the afternoon. High temperatures
are forecast in the middle 60s west to lower 70s east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Front will still be pushing through the area early tonight, then
is expected to be east of the cwa by Thursday morning. Region
should still see lingering showers the evening and early
tonight, then drier air will be pushing in behind the cold front
late tonight, which will bring an end to any shower activity.
Dry ridging will dominate Thursday. Clouds and showers will keep
temperatures from falling off too rapidly after sunset. By
morning, drier air will have moved in and clouds cleared out,
which will allow temperatures to drop into the 40s. Thursday
will be in the 50s to lower 60s behind the front. A return to
readings in the 30s for Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The GFS and ECMWF display a moisture increase Friday with an
onshore flow and approaching warm front. The warm front may
linger Saturday ahead of a cold front approaching from the west.
The models show this slow moving frontal system lingering in the
region into the early portions of next week, which will keep
conditions on the wetter side through Tuesday. Temperatures
return to above normal for the majority of the longer term.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Restrictions are expected to develop this morning and continue
for most of the 24-hr TAF period. May see improvements toward
the very end of the period.

Clouds will increase and lower this morning due to deepening moisture
ahead of an approaching cold front that will cross the area this
evening. Ceilings have dropped to MVFR at all of the terminals
this morning with some fluctuations. Regional radar this morning
shows rain overspreading the area from the west. Some light
showers have already passed over the terminals. High resolution
models show a break in precipitation from late morning through
midday before the main line of showers comes through during the
afternoon. Some of the models also show ceilings improving to
VFR temporarily around midday. As the main line of showers and
storms moves through the area, isolated thunder will be
possible. The main line will shift east of the terminals during
the late afternoon/early evening with trailing rain showers
expected to continue off and on through around 06Z. LLWS is
expected to develop around daybreak as a strong low- level
southerly jet develops across the region. Light southerly winds
early this morning will increase to 10 to 15 knots with gusts
near 25 knots by late morning. Gusty winds will continue through
the afternoon and will gradually decrease to around 10 knots or
less tonight.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Another cold front is expected to
bring showers and associated restrictions Friday night through
Sunday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Columbia SC
346 AM EST Wed Feb 7 2018

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-080900-
Lincoln-McDuffie-Columbia-Richmond-Burke-Lancaster-Chesterfield-
McCormick-Newberry-Fairfield-Kershaw-Edgefield-Saluda-Lexington-
Richland-Lee-Aiken-Sumter-Barnwell-Orangeburg-Calhoun-Clarendon-
Bamberg-
346 AM EST Wed Feb 7 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Midlands of South Carolina
and the Central Savannah River area of Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.