Flood Watch 2, NWS Columbia, SC

514 
WGUS62 KCAE 142343
FFACAE

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Columbia SC
643 PM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

...Flood Watch...

.Low pressure from the Gulf of Mexico will track northeastward
along the Georgia and South Carolina coasts into Thursday 
morning. Heavy rain will be associated with this system.

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>028-030-151500-
/O.CON.KCAE.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-181115T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Lincoln-McDuffie-Columbia-Richmond-Burke-Lancaster-Chesterfield-
McCormick-Newberry-Fairfield-Kershaw-Edgefield-Saluda-Lexington-
Richland-Aiken-
Including the cities of Lincolnton, Thomson, Martinez, Evans, 
Augusta, Hephzibah, Waynesboro, Lancaster, Elgin, Lancaster Mill,
Cheraw, Pageland, Mccormick, Newberry, Winnsboro, 
Winnsboro Mills, Camden, Lugoff, Edgefield, Johnston, Saluda, 
Ridge Spring, Seven Oaks, West Columbia, Cayce, Lexington, 
Red Bank, Oak Grove, Columbia, Aiken, and North Augusta
643 PM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

The Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of east central Georgia and central South Carolina, 
  including the following areas, in east central Georgia, Burke, 
  Columbia, Lincoln, McDuffie, and Richmond. In central South 
  Carolina, Aiken, Chesterfield, Edgefield, Fairfield, Kershaw, 
  Lancaster, Lexington, McCormick, Newberry, Richland, and 
  Saluda. 

* Through Thursday morning

* General rain totals through Thursday morning are forecast to 
  be 2 to 3 inches. Locally higher amounts could possibly occur. 

* The ground remains saturated and stream levels are elevated. 
  The heavier rainfall amounts could lead to flooding along 
  small streams and other flood-prone locations. 

&&

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts.

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible
Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be
prepared to take action should flooding develop.

Do not attempt to drive on flooded roads. It takes little water
to move a vehicle off the road and into deeper water. Be especially
cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the danger.

&&

$$

607 
WGUS62 KCAE 150949
FFACAE

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Columbia SC
449 AM EST Thu Nov 15 2018

...Flood Watch...


GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>028-030-151500-
/O.CON.KCAE.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-181115T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Lincoln-McDuffie-Columbia-Richmond-Burke-Lancaster-Chesterfield-
McCormick-Newberry-Fairfield-Kershaw-Edgefield-Saluda-Lexington-
Richland-Aiken-
Including the cities of Lincolnton, Thomson, Martinez, Evans, 
Augusta, Hephzibah, Waynesboro, Lancaster, Elgin, Lancaster Mill,
Cheraw, Pageland, Mccormick, Newberry, Winnsboro, 
Winnsboro Mills, Camden, Lugoff, Edgefield, Johnston, Saluda, 
Ridge Spring, Seven Oaks, West Columbia, Cayce, Lexington, 
Red Bank, Oak Grove, Columbia, Aiken, and North Augusta
449 AM EST Thu Nov 15 2018

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING...

The Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of east central Georgia and central South Carolina, 
  including the following areas, in east central Georgia, Burke, 
  Columbia, Lincoln, McDuffie, and Richmond. In central South 
  Carolina, Aiken, Chesterfield, Edgefield, Fairfield, Kershaw, 
  Lancaster, Lexington, McCormick, Newberry, Richland, and 
  Saluda. 

* Until 10 AM EST this morning

* General rain totals through this morning are forecast to be 
  around 2 inches. Locally higher amounts possible especially west
  of Columbia and Augusta.

* The ground remains saturated and stream levels are elevated. 
  The heavier rainfall amounts could lead to flooding along 
  small streams and other flood-prone locations. 

&&

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts.

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible
Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be
prepared to take action should flooding develop.

Do not attempt to drive on flooded roads. It takes little water
to move a vehicle off the road and into deeper water. Be
especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
danger.

&&

$$
awp

991 
WGUS62 KCAE 151440
FFACAE

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Columbia SC
940 AM EST Thu Nov 15 2018

...Flood Watch Cancelled...

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>028-030-151545-
/O.CAN.KCAE.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-181115T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Lincoln-McDuffie-Columbia-Richmond-Burke-Lancaster-Chesterfield-
McCormick-Newberry-Fairfield-Kershaw-Edgefield-Saluda-Lexington-
Richland-Aiken-
Including the cities of Lincolnton, Thomson, Martinez, Evans, 
Augusta, Hephzibah, Waynesboro, Lancaster, Elgin, Lancaster Mill,
Cheraw, Pageland, Mccormick, Newberry, Winnsboro, 
Winnsboro Mills, Camden, Lugoff, Edgefield, Johnston, Saluda, 
Ridge Spring, Seven Oaks, West Columbia, Cayce, Lexington, 
Red Bank, Oak Grove, Columbia, Aiken, and North Augusta
940 AM EST Thu Nov 15 2018

...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Watch for parts of east-central Georgia and central 
South Carolina has been cancelled. Heavy rain has moved north of 
the area and the threat of small stream and urban flooding has 
diminished. Small stream levels will remain elevated through 
today. River flooding will continue into early next week on some 
area rivers. 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1142 AM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure from the Gulf of Mexico will track northeastward
along the Georgia and South Carolina coasts late tonight and
Thursday morning. The low will be centered near the North
Carolina and Virgina coasts Thursday afternoon. High pressure
will build into the forecast area from the west in the wake of
this system Thursday night and Friday. Dry conditions are expected
Friday through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Water vapor imagery showed a deep moisture plume extending
through the forecast area. The plume had a tropical connection.
A cold air damming pattern was in place in the forecast area.
There was a frontal zone along the coast with high pressure in
the Ohio River Valley and Middle Atlantic States directing a
cold northerly flow into the forecast area. The cold air damming
is forecast to strengthen through tonight as low pressure
tracks northeastward along the Georgia and South Carolina
coasts. The models depict strong isentropic lift tonight aided
by a 50-knots h85 jet. The main issue is a threat of flooding
tonight. The models indicate strong 850-700 frontogenesis may
develop in the Piedmont or north Midlands tonight enhancing
rainfall. Elevated convection associated with strong upper lift
cannot be ruled out which may result in high rain rates
tonight. An average of the NAM and ECMWF plus SREF mean support
general rain amounts of 1 to 1.5 of an inch in the eastern
Midlands to 2 to 3 inches in the Piedmont. Based on 6-hr Flash
Flood Guidance, moist antecedent conditions, and the potential
for strong lift we have posted a Flood Watch for the central and
west sections through tonight. It will remain cool in the
forecast area in the northerly flow west of the low pressure
center. Expect temperatures mainly near 50 today falling into
the upper 30s and lower 40s tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Thursday...Upper low lifting northeast across Tennessee and
surface low moving to the northeast of the region. Dry slot
developing over the area. Showers should be lifting to the
northeast of the area early in the day. Decreasing pops through
the day, but temperatures slow to rise with weak cold advection
and continued low clouds through the day.

Thursday night...clearing skies and cold temperatures. With
temperatures in the low to mid 30s marginal freeze expected.

Friday...Pressure ridge building northeast from the Gulf coast
and lower Mississippi Valley. Dry air mass and below normal
temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Surface high pressure builds into the region for this upcoming
weekend for dry weather with seasonable temperatures.  An upper
trough is forecast to pass through the Great Lakes and New England
early next week.  At this time it appears any significant
precipitation would stay north of the region and only bring a shot
of cooler air.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Restrictions will dominate through the 24-hour TAF period.

Low pressure from the Gulf of Mexico will track northeastward
along the Georgia and South Carolina coasts late tonight and
Thursday morning. The low will be centered near the North
Carolina and Virgina coasts Thursday afternoon. The pattern and
observation trends support mainly IFR conditions through the TAF
period. Rain will be heavy at times tonight mainly associated
with strong isentropic lift. It will also be breezy because of
the pressure gradient between high pressure ridging into the
area from the north and the low tracking along the coast. We
followed the GFS and NAM Bufkit momentum transfer tool and GFS
LAMP for the wind gust forecast.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Widespread IFR or MVFR conditions
will continue Thursday afternoon associated with wrap-around
moisture south of low pressure lifting northeast of the area.
Expect a return to VFR conditions Thursday night with the low
farther away and high pressure building into the area from the
west. The dry air mass will likely dominate through Saturday. An
onshore flow may bring increased moisture and possible restrictions
Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Another very wet system will move through tonight into Thursday
with an additional 2 to 4 inches of rain possible. This, along
with runoff from even higher amounts upstream north of our
forecast area, provides high confidence of river flooding at
some river forecast points.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for GAZ040-063>065-077.
SC...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for SCZ015-016-018-
     020>022-025>028-030.

&&

SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
HYDROLOGY...99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Columbia SC
526 AM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>028-030-151030-
Lincoln-McDuffie-Columbia-Richmond-Burke-Lancaster-Chesterfield-
McCormick-Newberry-Fairfield-Kershaw-Edgefield-Saluda-Lexington-
Richland-Aiken-
526 AM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM NOON EST TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Midlands of South Carolina
and the Central Savannah River area of Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

   River Flood Warnings.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

   River Flood Warnings.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

SCZ029-031-035>038-041-151030-
Lee-Sumter-Barnwell-Orangeburg-Calhoun-Clarendon-Bamberg-
526 AM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Midlands of South Carolina
and the Central Savannah River area of Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazard.

River Flood Warnings.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazard.

River Flood Warnings.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.