Severe Thunderstorm Warning 49, NWS Billings, MT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
248 PM MDT Thu May 31 2018

.SHORT TERM...valid for Fri and Sat...

Starting to see convection over the western zones. CAMs continue
to show this convection and more over the mountains moving to the
east. Still looking at plenty of shear and deep layer shear
through the evening for most of southern Montana. Given that
there has been some cloud cover from Rosebud County east, there is
some question as to how much convection will actually develop in
the eastern zones. The main threats remain large hail and damaging
winds.

Tomorrow as a cold front moves across the area, more showers and
thunderstorms are possible. This will also decrease the
instability, however some of the high-res guidance does show some
lingering in the southeast. At this point cannot rule out an
isolated strong thunderstorm along the Dakotas. Showers and
thunderstorms will be decreasing through the afternoon, and will
end overnight. By Saturday, ridging will be working into the area
which will result in drying conditions and temperatures around
normal. Reimer

.LONG TERM...valid for Sun...Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu...

High pressure over the region looks to bring dry conditions to the
area Sunday through most of Monday. Models then prog the ridge to
break down Monday evening/night, as a cold front sweeps through
the region and generates showers and thunderstorms. Showers and
thunderstorms then look possible at times through Thursday as
waves of energy move through the region with troughing over the
eastern Pacific/west coast and ridging over the central US.
Uncertainty still remains in the timing of these waves, as models
remain out of sync. High temperatures look to range from the 70s
to lower 80s most days, with the warmest day being Monday ahead of
an approaching front. Low temperatures look to range from the 40s
to lower 50s most nights/mornings. STP

&&

.AVIATION...

Scattered thunderstorms can be expected across much of the area
through the evening, with showers lingering overnight. Some
storms could be severe and produce large hail and strong/erratic
(50 kt) wind gusts. Brief MVFR/IFR is possible with any stronger
storm, otherwise VFR will prevail. Mountains will be obscured at
times. JKL/STP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 055/068 046/075 049/081 054/086 055/073 052/078 054/079
    66/T    20/U    00/U    11/U    22/T    21/U    11/U
LVM 048/061 040/071 044/079 049/083 048/073 046/075 048/076
    67/T    20/N    00/U    11/U    22/T    21/U    11/U
HDN 056/071 047/076 049/083 054/088 055/076 053/079 055/081
    56/T    30/U    00/U    11/U    22/T    31/U    21/U
MLS 058/070 050/071 051/081 057/088 058/076 055/080 058/080
    44/T    30/N    00/U    01/U    21/B    21/B    31/U
4BQ 058/076 048/072 049/083 055/089 057/079 055/081 057/080
    26/T    50/U    00/U    00/U    21/B    21/U    31/U
BHK 059/074 049/070 047/079 053/085 056/077 052/079 055/078
    33/T    30/N    00/U    00/U    21/B    21/B    32/T
SHR 054/070 044/073 046/079 050/085 053/077 050/079 053/076
    37/T    40/U    00/U    01/U    22/T    21/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MT...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 140 in effect until 10 PM MDT this
      evening FOR ZONES 28>32-34>36-38>42-56>58-63>68.
WY...None.

&&

weather.gov/billings

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Billings MT
415 AM MDT Thu May 31 2018

MTZ028>042-056>058-063>068-011015-
Southern Wheatland-Musselshell-Treasure-Northern Rosebud-Custer-
Fallon-Northern Stillwater-Yellowstone-Powder River-Carter-
Southern Big Horn-Eastern Carbon-Northern Park-
Northern Sweet Grass-Golden Valley-Red Lodge Foothills-
Northern Big Horn-Southern Rosebud-Judith Gap-Paradise Valley-
Livingston Area-Beartooth Foothills-Absaroka/Beartooth Mountains-
Crazy Mountains-
415 AM MDT Thu May 31 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Montana...south central Montana and southeast Montana.

* WHAT...Severe Thunderstorms.

* WHEN...This afternoon and evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Scattered thunderstorms are expected today.
  Some storms may become capable of large hail and very strong wind
  gusts.

* ADDITIONAL HAZARD CONCERNS...Very heavy rainfall is likely with
  some storms and may cause rapid rises on creeks, with localized
  flash flooding possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be sure to stay tuned for future updates as locations, timing, and
impacts could change.

&&

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