Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS Billings, MT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
253 PM MDT Sun Apr 29 2018

.SHORT TERM...valid for Mon and Tue...

Showers and thunderstorms were increasing in coverage this
afternoon as an upper trough and associated low over the interior
Pac NW moved closer to the area. Expect showers and thunderstorms
to continue to increase in coverage this afternoon into the
evening as a vorticity max and coincident jet max aloft round the
low and move through the area. Modest instability and shear will
allow for some stronger storms for mainly eastern areas with wind
being the main threat, although can't rule out some hail as well
with low freezing levels. Hi-res guidance shows most of the
shower/thunderstorm activity in the east morphing into linear
clusters and exiting the area by 9pm this evening. There looks to
be a brief break in precipitation later this evening and overnight
before showers increase again into Monday as the aforementioned
trough continues to move east and settles in over the region.
Shower chances look to continue at least through Tuesday, highest
over the southern foothills and mountains with several inches of
snow possible over the high country and a rain/snow mix for some
of the foothill locations.

Liquid precipitation amounts through Tuesday will generally range
from 0.50" or more south of a Livingston to Billings to Baker line
with lesser totals to the north. Areas around the Bighorn foothills
could see totals approaching an inch. Snow amounts for the
mountains through Tuesday will generally range from 6 to 12
inches, with a bit higher totals possible for the Bighorn
Mountains. Have gone ahead and issued a Winter Storm Watch for the
northeast Bighorn Mountains from Monday morning through Tuesday
morning. High temperatures in the 50s can be expected for Monday
and Tuesday. Low temperatures will range from the 30s west to 40s
east tonight, with 30s Monday night and Tuesday night. STP

.LONG TERM...valid for Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat...Sun...

Unsettled conditions anticipated at the beginning of the long
term period on Wednesday. A weak disturbance moving southeast
will produce scattered rain showers and mountain snow showers in
the afternoon. We can also expect cooler temperatures in the low
to mid 60s through the afternoon. Temperatures warm up and
conditions become mostly dry Thursday and Friday as northwest flow
around a weak ridge of high pressure moves into the area. A few
isolated showers could develop on Friday afternoon, but most of
the region will remain dry.

Looking ahead to the weekend, there is better agreement in the
models that a disturbance approaches the region for the weekend.
This will increase the chances for showers and thunderstorms
across the area along with cooler temperatures. Dobbs

&&

.AVIATION...

Widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms will develop this
afternoon and evening across the area. The strongest storms will
be east of KBIL and KSHR where wind gusts could reach 40 to 50 kts
in the strongest thunderstorms along with the potential for some
hail. Expect widespread MVFR conditions to develop in any showers
along with the potential for IFR conditions in the heaviest
storms. Widespread mountain obscurations expected through the
period. Northwest winds move in after 06z tonight along with
improving conditions before another round of showers brings
potential restrictions after 12z Monday. Dobbs

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 043/053 039/057 039/063 043/069 046/070 046/072 044/068
    46/W    55/W    22/W    11/B    11/B    12/T    23/W
LVM 036/051 033/054 033/059 036/064 040/067 041/067 038/064
    46/W    54/T    33/W    11/B    12/W    23/T    34/W
HDN 043/054 040/057 038/065 041/070 044/072 046/074 043/070
    66/W    75/W    22/W    12/W    12/W    12/T    33/W
MLS 046/055 039/055 038/064 043/069 044/069 045/072 044/070
    63/W    55/W    11/B    12/W    11/B    11/B    22/W
4BQ 044/054 040/054 037/062 040/066 043/068 045/070 043/067
    65/W    65/W    12/W    11/B    11/B    11/B    23/W
BHK 045/054 039/052 035/062 040/066 042/068 042/069 041/067
    72/W    35/W    11/U    11/B    11/B    11/B    23/W
SHR 042/050 038/054 035/059 037/064 041/067 043/068 041/065
    48/W    86/W    23/W    21/B    12/W    12/T    23/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...Winter Storm Watch in effect from Monday morning through
      Tuesday morning FOR ZONE 98.

&&

weather.gov/billings

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Billings MT
301 PM MDT Sun Apr 29 2018

MTZ028>042-056>058-063>068-WYZ098-099-302115-
Southern Wheatland-Musselshell-Treasure-Northern Rosebud-Custer-
Fallon-Northern Stillwater-Yellowstone-Powder River-Carter-
Southern Big Horn-Eastern Carbon-Northern Park-
Northern Sweet Grass-Golden Valley-Red Lodge Foothills-
Northern Big Horn-Southern Rosebud-Judith Gap-Paradise Valley-
Livingston Area-Beartooth Foothills-Absaroka/Beartooth Mountains-
Crazy Mountains-Northeast Bighorn Mountains-Sheridan Foothills-
301 PM MDT Sun Apr 29 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Montana...south central Montana...southeast Montana and north
central Wyoming.

* WHAT...A few strong thunderstorms.

* WHERE...Mainly east of a Billings to Sheridan line.

* WHEN...This afternoon and evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Main threat with thunderstorms will be
  strong wind gusts of 50 mph or greater. Frequent lighting and
  small hail are also possible.

* Another spring storm system is expected to bring significant snow
  to area mountains Monday into Tuesday. Some snow accumulations
  are possible for foothill locations above 5000 feet Monday night,
  along with a mix of rain and snow for some of the lower
  elevations. Snow amounts are still a bit uncertain so stay tuned
  to the forecast for updates.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Hazardous Weather Outlook is issued when hazardous weather could
impact the region within the next week. Be sure to stay tuned for
future updates as locations, timing, and impacts could change.
Begin preparations to mitigate any impacts that could result from
the hazardous weather.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Billings MT
259 PM MDT SUN APR 29 2018

WYZ098-099-292145-
Sheridan Foothills WY-Northeast Big Horn Mountains WY-
259 PM MDT SUN APR 29 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

At 258 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Fort Phil Kearny Historical Site, or 15 miles south of Sheridan,
moving north at 25 mph.

Dime size hail, wind gusts up to 50 mph and torrential rainfall are
possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sheridan, Big Horn, Story and Banner.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4456 10701 4494 10688 4489 10641 4455 10666
TIME...MOT...LOC 2058Z 199DEG 26KT 4460 10684

TWH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Billings MT
316 PM MDT SUN APR 29 2018

MTZ036-292200-
Powder River MT-
316 PM MDT SUN APR 29 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

At 315 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 19
miles southeast of Ashland, or 28 miles west of Broadus, moving north
at 25 mph.

Dime sized hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sonnette.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4516 10594 4522 10623 4571 10621 4571 10586
      4555 10556
TIME...MOT...LOC 2115Z 193DEG 20KT 4540 10598

Dobbs

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