Alert archive / New York / Winter Storm Watches in 2018
Winter Storm Watch 1, NWS Buffalo, NY
NWS Buffalo, NY issued this winter storm watch at Jan 3, 2018, 12:50 PM EST for Cayuga County, Oswego County, Wayne County, New York. It took effect at Jan 4, 2018, 4:00 PM EST. It was in force for .
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Jan 3, 2018, 12:50 PM EST (17:50 UTC)
- In effect from
- Jan 4, 2018, 4:00 PM EST
- Expired
- Jan 4, 2018, 3:38 AM EST
- In force
- Issued by
- NWS Buffalo, NY
Counties Cayuga County, NY, Oswego County, NY, Wayne County, NY
The radar
The Ft Drum radar (KTYX), 97 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:52 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 12:00Z, 5.8 hours before the alert went out and 174 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1101 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 36 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 102 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 80 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
356 WWUS41 KBUF 031750 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1250 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018 NYZ004>006-040200- /O.NEW.KBUF.WS.A.0001.180104T2100Z-180106T2300Z/ /O.CON.KBUF.WC.A.0001.180105T0300Z-180106T2300Z/ Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego- Including the cities of Newark, Fair Haven, and Oswego 1250 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON... ...WIND CHILL WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills possible. Periods of heavy lake effect snow and blowing snow possible. Travel may be very difficult at times. Wind chills could range from 10 below zero to 30 below zero. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 15 inches are possible. * WHERE...Wayne, Northern Cayuga, and Oswego counties. * WHEN...For the Wind Chill Watch, 10 PM Thursday to 6 PM Saturday. For the Winter Storm Watch, from Thursday afternoon through Saturday afternoon. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Dangerously cold wind chills as low as 30 below zero will cause frostbite in as little as 10 minutes to exposed skin. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph will cause areas of blowing and drifting snow. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This is a potentially dangerous situation to be outdoors. If you must be outside, be sure to cover all exposed skin. Frostbite can occur in 15 minutes or less with apparent temperatures of 25 below zero or colder. Begin needed preparations at home or with your vehicle. Travel may become difficult, so plan accordingly. && $$ NYZ001>003-010>014-019>021-085-040200- /O.CON.KBUF.WC.A.0001.180105T0300Z-180106T2300Z/ Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston- Ontario-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie- Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, Buffalo, Batavia, Warsaw, Geneseo, Canandaigua, Jamestown, Olean, Wellsville, Orchard Park, and Springville 1250 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018 ...WIND CHILL WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Very cold wind chills possible. Cold wind chills as low as 25 below zero will cause frostbite in as little as 30 minutes to exposed skin. Wind chills could range from 15 below zero to 25 below zero. * WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Monroe, Erie, Genesee, Wyoming, Livingston, Ontario, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Allegany counties. * WHEN...10 PM Thursday to 6 PM Saturday. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This is a potentially dangerous situation to be outdoors. If you must be outside, be sure to cover all exposed skin. Frostbite can occur in 15 minutes or less with apparent temperatures of 25 below zero or colder. && $$ NYZ007-008-040200- /O.CON.KBUF.WC.A.0001.180105T0300Z-180106T2300Z/ Jefferson-Lewis- Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville 1250 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018 ...WIND CHILL WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills possible. Dangerously cold wind chills as low as 40 below zero will cause frostbite in as little as 10 minutes to exposed skin. Wind chills could range from 20 below zero to 40 below zero. * WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis counties. Coldest wind chills will be found across higher elevations. * WHEN...10 PM Thursday to 6 PM Saturday. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This is a potentially dangerous situation to be outdoors. If you must be outside, be sure to cover all exposed skin. Frostbite can occur in 15 minutes or less with apparent temperatures of 25 below zero or colder. && $$ WOOD
2 follow-up statements
292 WWUS41 KBUF 032358 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 658 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018 NYZ004>006-040930- /O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0001.180104T2100Z-180106T2300Z/ /O.CON.KBUF.WC.A.0001.180105T0300Z-180106T2300Z/ Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego- Including the cities of Newark, Fair Haven, and Oswego 658 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON... ...WIND CHILL WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills possible. Periods of heavy lake effect snow and blowing snow possible. Travel may be very difficult at times. Wind chills could range from 10 below zero to 30 below zero. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 15 inches are possible. * WHERE...Wayne, Northern Cayuga, and Oswego counties. * WHEN...For the Wind Chill Watch, 10 PM Thursday to 6 PM Saturday. For the Winter Storm Watch, from Thursday afternoon through Saturday afternoon. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Frostbite can occur in 15 minutes or less with apparent temperatures of 25 below zero or colder. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph will cause areas of blowing and drifting snow. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Begin needed preparations at home or with your vehicle. Travel may become difficult, so plan accordingly. This is a potentially dangerous situation to be outdoors. If you must be outside, be sure to cover all exposed skin. Frostbite can occur in 15 minutes or less with apparent temperatures of 25 below zero or colder. && $$ NYZ001>003-010>014-019>021-085-040930- /O.CON.KBUF.WC.A.0001.180105T0300Z-180106T2300Z/ Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston- Ontario-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie- Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, Buffalo, Batavia, Warsaw, Geneseo, Canandaigua, Jamestown, Olean, Wellsville, Orchard Park, and Springville 658 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018 ...WIND CHILL WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Very cold wind chills possible. Wind chills could range from 15 below zero to 25 below zero. * WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Monroe, Erie, Genesee, Wyoming, Livingston, Ontario, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Allegany counties. * WHEN...10 PM Thursday to 6 PM Saturday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Frostbite can occur in 15 minutes or less with apparent temperatures of 25 below zero or colder. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This is a potentially dangerous situation to be outdoors. If you must be outside, be sure to cover all exposed skin. Frostbite can occur in 15 minutes or less with apparent temperatures of 25 below zero or colder. && $$ NYZ007-008-040930- /O.CON.KBUF.WC.A.0001.180105T0300Z-180106T2300Z/ Jefferson-Lewis- Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville 658 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018 ...WIND CHILL WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills possible. Wind chills could range from 20 below zero to 40 below zero. * WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis counties. Coldest wind chills will be found across higher elevations. * WHEN...10 PM Thursday to 6 PM Saturday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Frostbite can occur in 15 minutes or less with apparent temperatures of 25 below zero or colder. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This is a potentially dangerous situation to be outdoors. If you must be outside, be sure to cover all exposed skin. Frostbite can occur in 15 minutes or less with apparent temperatures of 25 below zero or colder. && $$ Apffel
565
WWUS41 KBUF 040838
WSWBUF
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
338 AM EST Thu Jan 4 2018
NYZ004>006-041645-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0001.180104T2100Z-180106T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.W.0003.180104T1500Z-180106T1200Z/
/O.UPG.KBUF.WC.A.0001.180105T0300Z-180106T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.WC.W.0001.180105T0600Z-180107T1200Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-
Including the cities of Newark, Fair Haven, and Oswego
338 AM EST Thu Jan 4 2018
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
7 AM EST SATURDAY...
...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST
SUNDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow and blowing snow expected.
Dangerously cold wind chills expected. Travel will be very
difficult at times. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 14 inches
are expected in the most persistent lake snows. Expect wind
chills to range from 20 below zero to 30 below zero at times.
* WHERE...Wayne, Northern Cayuga, and Oswego counties.
* WHEN...For the Lake Effect Snow Warning, 10 AM today to 7 AM
Saturday. For the Wind Chill Warning, 1 AM Friday to 7 AM
Sunday.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 40 mph will cause
areas of significant blowing and drifting snow. The dangerously
cold wind chills will cause frostbite in as little as 10
minutes to exposed skin.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.
Submit snow reports through our website or social media.
This is a potentially dangerous situation to be outdoors. If you
must be outside, be sure to cover all exposed skin. Frostbite can
occur in 10 minutes or less with apparent temperatures of
25 below zero or colder.
&&
Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4347 7597 4361 7623 4354 7645 4334 7683
4331 7738 4310 7727 4300 7695 4302 7650 4324 7645
4319 7602
TIME Y18M01D04T1500Z-Y18M01D05T1200Z
COORD...4347 7597 4361 7623 4354 7645 4334 7683
4331 7738 4310 7727 4300 7695 4302 7650 4324 7645
4319 7602
TIME Y18M01D05T1200Z-Y18M01D06T1200Z
$$
NYZ001>003-041645-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WC.A.0001.180105T0300Z-180106T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.WC.W.0001.180105T0100Z-180107T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0039.180104T1500Z-180106T1200Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, and Rochester
338 AM EST Thu Jan 4 2018
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
7 AM EST SATURDAY...
...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM
EST SUNDAY...
* WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills expected. Lake effect snow
and blowing snow expected. Travel will be difficult at times.
Expect wind chills to range from 20 below zero to 30 below zero
at times. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 8 inches are
expected in the most persistent lake snows.
* WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, and Monroe counties.
* WHEN...For the Wind Chill Warning, 8 PM this evening to 7 AM
Sunday. For the Winter Weather Advisory, 10 AM today to 7 AM
Saturday.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The dangerously cold wind chills will
cause frostbite in as little as 10 minutes to exposed skin.
Winds gusting as high as 40 mph will cause areas of blowing
and drifting snow.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
This is a potentially dangerous situation to be outdoors. If you
must be outside, be sure to cover all exposed skin. Frostbite can
occur in 10 minutes or less with apparent temperatures of
25 below zero or colder.
Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.
Submit snow reports through our website or social media.
&&
$$
NYZ019-020-041645-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WC.A.0001.180105T0300Z-180106T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.WC.W.0001.180105T0100Z-180107T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0039.180104T1500Z-180106T1200Z/
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-
Including the cities of Jamestown and Olean
338 AM EST Thu Jan 4 2018
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
7 AM EST SATURDAY...
...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM
EST SUNDAY...
* WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills expected. Lake effect snow
and blowing snow expected. Plan on difficult travel conditions
at times. Expect wind chills to range from 20 below zero to 30
below zero at times. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 10 inches
are expected in the most persistent lake snows.
* WHERE...Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties. Greatest snow
accumulations on the Chautauqua Ridge.
* WHEN...For the Wind Chill Warning, 8 PM this evening to 7 AM
Sunday. For the Winter Weather Advisory, 10 AM today to 7 AM
Saturday.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The dangerously cold wind chills will
cause frostbite in as little as 10 minutes to exposed skin.
Winds gusting as high as 40 mph will cause areas of blowing
and drifting snow.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
This is a potentially dangerous situation to be outdoors. If you
must be outside, be sure to cover all exposed skin. Frostbite can
occur in 10 minutes or less with apparent temperatures of
25 below zero or colder.
Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.
Submit snow reports through our website or social media.
&&
$$
NYZ010>014-021-085-041645-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WC.A.0001.180105T0300Z-180106T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.WC.W.0001.180105T0100Z-180107T1200Z/
Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Allegany-
Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Buffalo, Batavia, Warsaw, Geneseo,
Canandaigua, Wellsville, Orchard Park, and Springville
338 AM EST Thu Jan 4 2018
...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM
EST SUNDAY...
* WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills expected. Expect wind chills
to range from 20 below zero to 30 below zero at times.
* WHERE...Erie, Genesee, Wyoming, Livingston, Ontario, and
Allegany counties.
* WHEN...8 PM this evening to 7 AM Sunday.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The dangerously cold wind chills will
cause frostbite in as little as 10 minutes to exposed skin.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
This is a potentially dangerous situation to be outdoors. If you
must be outside, be sure to cover all exposed skin. Frostbite can
occur in 10 minutes or less with apparent temperatures of
25 below zero or colder.
&&
$$
NYZ007-008-041645-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WC.A.0001.180105T0300Z-180106T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.WC.W.0001.180105T0400Z-180107T1200Z/
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
338 AM EST Thu Jan 4 2018
...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM
EST SUNDAY...
* WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills expected. Expect wind chills
to range from 25 below zero to 45 below zero at times.
* WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis counties.
* WHEN...11 PM this evening to 7 AM Sunday.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The dangerously cold wind chills will
cause frostbite in as little as 10 minutes to exposed skin.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
This is a potentially dangerous situation to be outdoors. If you
must be outside, be sure to cover all exposed skin. Frostbite can
occur in 10 minutes or less with apparent temperatures of
25 below zero or colder.
&&
$$
HITCHCOCK/CHURCHWhat forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this winter storm watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this winter storm watch went out at Jan 3, 10:50 AM EST, 2 hours earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jan 3, 10:50 AM EST, 2 hours before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1050 AM EST Wed Jan 3 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
Lingering lake effect snow northeast of the lakes will continue to
diminish this morning, leaving mainly dry weather for much of the
day. This evening and overnight, a cold front will bring a general
light snow to the region, with lake effect snow showers following
for Thursday through Saturday southeast of the lakes. Bitter wind
chills, and likely the coldest airmass of the season, will arrive
for Friday and Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Lake effect snow showers are just about over northeast of the
lakes this morning. Ahead of the next upper-level trough,
subsidence has led to clearing across much of the region.
Shore ice on Lake Erie and Ontario are evident using visible
sattelite this morning.
Previous discussion...
On the synoptic scale, an upper-level trough is moving over the
upper Great Lakes while a surface high is moving off the mid-
Atlantic coast this morning. Lingering lake effect plumes remain
embedded in the southwesterly flow resultant from the pressure
gradient between the two. However, these plumes will continue to
weaken with time this morning as they are negatively impacted
by dry air and warm advection. This is also generating just
enough wind with the cold temperatures in place to support a
continued wind chill advisory for the western Southern Tier
through 10am this morning, with wind chills around
-10F to -15F.
A much weakened band of very light lake effect snow continues
northeast of Lake Erie, over Niagara Falls. This band will continue
to drift northward over Niagara Falls early this morning before
moving over the Canadian side of the Niagara Peninsula by around
sunrise. Meanwhile, the lake effect effect band off Lake Ontario is
breaking apart across Jefferson county. The more southerly wind
direction is decreasing the fetch across Lake Ontario, which will
continue to weaken the band, along with the lowering capping
inversion height and drier air. These bands will produce mainly
flurries to very light snowfall.
Today will be a touch "warmer" owing to southwest flow and weak warm
air advection ahead of the approaching clipper. Highs will top out
in the upper teens to low 20s but again winds gusting in the 20s
will cause wind chills in the single digits above zero.
By this evening, the lowering heights aloft ahead of the upper-level
trough will help to reinvigorate some lake effect snows northeast of
Lakes Erie and Ontario. Initially south-southwesterly flow ahead of
the wave this evening will allow for lake effect plume to develop
over the Niagara Peninsula this evening. The plume will likely
quickly swing southeastward across the Buffalo area before the the
band is broken apart into multibands across the western southern
Tier by early Thursday morning. Overall accumulations are not
expected to be significant, with only an inch or two in the most
persistent snows in far western NY. As for Lake Ontario, the south-
southwesterly flow should keep disorganized lake effect limited to
the Thousand Islands region this evening. The flow actually becomes
very light under the upper-level trough over the North Country and
eastern Lake Ontario tonight. This should allow the lake effect
snows to hug the shoreline locations as it pivots southward from
Jefferson County in the early morning hours to southwest of the lake
by around sunrise Thursday. Again accumulations here are not
expected to be significant, with at most another inch or two in the
most persistent snow.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
...Dangerously cold with accompanying lake effect snows...
Coldest air so far this season will arrive late this week.
Northerly to northwesterly winds and associated advection of
arctic air will be well established by Thursday morning behind
decaying clipper system and approach of deepening east coast
storm. This flow will reinvigorate lake snows south and
southeast of the lakes during the day Thursday. Looking at the
potential for some minor accumulations, perhaps on the order of
2 to 3 inches.
The continued surge of bitterly cold arctic air within a northwest
flow will maintain the potential for lake snows southeast of the
lakes Thursday night through Friday night. For the most part,
advisory type accumulations are expected as this extremely cold air
mass will result in minimal dendrite growth, although an uptick to
these anticipated accumulations is possible, particularly should
upstream connections to Lake Huron/Georgian Bay develop. Since
the very cold temperatures are expected to limit overall snowflake
size and resultant accumulation, expect locally 2-4 inch
accumulations per 12 hour period from Thursday night through
Friday night.
Perhaps of greater concern will be dangerously cold temperatures
and wind chills which will affect nearly all of western and
north central New York through the period. Wind chills will drop
well below zero Thursday night, with wind chills potentially
dropping as low as 20 below to 25 below zero in Western New
York, and potentially as low as 30 below to 40 below zero across
the North Country.
Friday into Saturday looks to be the coldest period of what has
already been a remarkable winter, as the heart of the arctic airmass
will be moving overhead. Temperatures will struggle to even get
above zero in most areas, and continued brisk northwesterly flow
around the passing coastal storm well to our east/northeast
will keep wind chills in the 15 below zero or colder range for
most if not all of this period. Friday night into Saturday
morning will likely bring the most brutally cold wind chills as
low as 25 below zero or colder in western New York and 40 below
zero or colder in the North Country. A wind chill watch has
been issued to cover this potential for dangerously cold
conditions.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A brief reprieve from the harshly cold temperatures appears to be in
store for next week Sunday and Monday...as a complex/double-
barrelled area of low pressure translates eastward across the
central and eastern CONUS/southern Canada. Continued steady warm
advection out ahead of this system will result in temperatures
largely rebounding into the 20s Sunday and into the 30s areawide on
Monday...however the warmup will come with a price as the warm
advection regime will also supply sufficient lift and moisture to
result in a widespread general snowfall Sunday night through Monday
night. Depending upon exactly how much warm air is drawn northward
into our region...there may even be some potential for some rain to
mix in with the snow on Monday...though with model disagreement on
this at this distant vantage point... for now have left ptype as all
snow for the sake of simplicity.
This system will pass off to our east on Tuesday...with colder
conditions and renewed chances for lake effect snow showers
following in its wake. Exactly how cold it will get remains a
question mark with the GFS/GEM suggesting the redevelopment of
deep longwave troughing and the return of arctic-sourced air
across our region...while the ECMWF is much shallower with the
trough and depicts a return to merely seasonable cold. For now...
have aimed in between these two camps for Tuesday's high temperature
forecast...which is currently in the mid to upper 20s for most
areas.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR ceilings will persist northeast of Lake Erie this morning at
KIAG from Lake Effect cloud cover. Expect improvement to VFR
northeast of Lake Erie during the day today. MVFR ceilings will
also persist near KART this morning. Though mid-morning, this
band of snow will further weaken and shift northward into the
Thousand Island region, allowing for improvement to VFR at KART
today. Otherwise, VFR conditons can expected today outside of
lake effect areas.
Tonight, lake effect snow will redevelop near KIAG around 00Z and
swing southward through KBUF through 06Z, eventually settling near
KJHW by early Thursday morning. Lake effect snow may also impact
KART after 06Z tonight. Expect MVFR to localized IFR in this lake
effect snow.
Outlook...
Thursday through Saturday...Areas of IFR in lake effect snow showers
southeast of the lakes.
Sunday...chance of snow showers. MVFR/IFR possible.
&&
.MARINE...
Small craft conditions will continue on the lakes through
tonight. There will be a brief respite from the winds on the
lakes Thursday morning. However, any drop in the winds will be
short lived with another very cold airmass forecast to drop
across the Eastern Great Lakes region late in the week. This
airmass may be the coldest yet...and with winds a bit stronger
there will be heightened chances for freezing spray.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Wind Chill Watch from Thursday evening through Saturday
afternoon for NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LEZ040-
041.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
LOZ042>044.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for LOZ045.
&&
SYNOPSIS...CHURCH
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/HSK
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...CHURCH/HSK
MARINE...CHURCH/HSKHazardous weather outlook, Jan 3, 10:08 AM EST, 2 hours 42 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1008 AM EST Wed Jan 3 2018 NYZ001>003-010-011-013-014-041515- Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Livingston-Ontario- 1008 AM EST Wed Jan 3 2018 ...WIND CHILL WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Wind Chill Watch. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ007-008-041515- Jefferson-Lewis- 1008 AM EST Wed Jan 3 2018 ...WIND CHILL WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Wind Chill Watch. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ021-041515- Allegany- 1008 AM EST Wed Jan 3 2018 ...WIND CHILL WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Wind Chill Watch. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ004>006-041515- Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego- 1008 AM EST Wed Jan 3 2018 ...WIND CHILL WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north central New York. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Wind Chill Watch. Lake effect snow bands will develop Thursday, continuing through Friday night. Several inches of new snow accumulation is expected. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ012-019-020-085-041515- Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie- 1008 AM EST Wed Jan 3 2018 ...WIND CHILL WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Wind Chill Watch. Lake effect snow bands will develop Thursday, continuing through Friday night. Several inches of new snow accumulation is expected. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-041515- Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo- Lower Niagara River- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg- Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis- 1008 AM EST Wed Jan 3 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf
In the hours before
Local storm report, Jan 3, 7:50 AM EST, 5 hours before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
750 AM EST WED JAN 03 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0430 AM SNOW 1 NW CONSTABLEVILLE 43.58N 75.45W
01/03/2018 M8.0 INCH LEWIS NY COCORAHS
24-HOUR SNOWFALL.
0513 AM SNOW HIGHMARKET 43.58N 75.52W
01/03/2018 M5.2 INCH LEWIS NY CO-OP OBSERVER
24-HOUR SNOWFALL.
0700 AM SNOW 8 N REDFIELD 43.64N 75.88W
01/03/2018 M18.8 INCH OSWEGO NY CO-OP OBSERVER
24-HOUR SNOWFALL.
0700 AM SNOW 1 NE PULASKI 43.57N 76.12W
01/03/2018 M3.5 INCH OSWEGO NY COCORAHS
24-HOUR SNOWFALL.
&&
EVENT NUMBER BUF1800017
EVENT NUMBER BUF1800018
EVENT NUMBER BUF1800019
EVENT NUMBER BUF1800020
DPKLocal storm report, Jan 3, 8:30 AM EST, 4 hours 20 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
830 AM EST WED JAN 03 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0600 AM SNOW 4 SSE LACONA 43.60N 76.04W
01/03/2018 M7.1 INCH OSWEGO NY COCORAHS
24-HOUR SNOWFALL.
0700 AM SNOW 6 N CROGHAN 43.98N 75.37W
01/03/2018 M14.3 INCH LEWIS NY COCORAHS
24-HOUR SNOWFALL.
0725 AM SNOW ESE CLARENCE CENTER 43.01N 78.63W
01/03/2018 M4.1 INCH ERIE NY COCORAHS
24-HOUR SNOWFALL.
&&
EVENT NUMBER BUF1800021
EVENT NUMBER BUF1800022
EVENT NUMBER BUF1800023
DPKThe office that day
Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 1:25 AM EST | Special Weather Statement | BUF | Jefferson | 80 min |
| Jan 3, 3:42 AM EST | Wind Chill Watch | BUF | Allegany, Cattaraugus, Cayuga, Chautauqua, Erie, Genesee and 10 more | 24 hr |
| Jan 3, 2:33 PM EST | Small Craft Advisory | BUF | 4 days |
Nearby
Winter Storm Watches in New York, 2018Every winter storm watch in 2018
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.