Alert archive / New York / Special Weather Statements in 2018

Special Weather Statement, NWS Buffalo, NY

November 10, 2018Jefferson County, Lewis County, New York

NWS Buffalo, NY issued this special weather statement at Nov 10, 2018, 12:46 PM EST for Jefferson County, Lewis County, New York. It was in force for 59 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Nov 10, 2018, 12:46 PM EST (17:46 UTC)
Expired
Nov 10, 2018, 1:45 PM EST
In force
59 min
Issued by
NWS Buffalo, NY

Counties Jefferson County, NY, Lewis County, NY

The radar

The Ft Drum radar (KTYX), 44 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:50 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Albany, NY (KALY), launched 12:00Z, 5.8 hours before the alert went out and 235 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Albany, NY at 12:00Z on 2018-11-10Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Albany, NY at 12:00Z on 2018-11-10The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -260 square meters per square second.1939587897117136156Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
802 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
100 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-260 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
187 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

341 
WWUS81 KBUF 101746
SPSBUF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1246 PM EST SAT NOV 10 2018

NYZ006>008-101845-
Jefferson-Oswego-Lewis-
1246 PM EST SAT NOV 10 2018

...BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL AFFECT JEFFERSON...LEWIS AND 
NORTHERN OSWEGO COUNTIES...

A broken band of lake effect snow over much of Lewis County will 
merge with an approaching band of snow showers along a cold front, 
resulting in a brief snow squall moving from northwest to southeast 
across much of the eastern Lake Ontario region and dropping a quick 
inch of accumulation.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this snow squall, 
producing blowing and drifting snow.

This includes Interstate 81 between exits 38 and 52.
 
Use extra caution if you must travel into or through this snow 
squall. Rapid changes in visibility and potentially slick roads are 
likely to lead to accidents. Consider delaying travel until the 
squall passes your location.

LAT...LON 4440 7583 4439 7584 4410 7517 4361 7511
      4357 7520 4368 7626 4378 7629 4383 7636
      4387 7635 4384 7645 4387 7650 4391 7650
      4396 7644 4396 7634 4402 7636 4410 7643
      4414 7635 4420 7631 4422 7619 4429 7615
$$

Hitchcock

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Nov 10, 9:18 AM EST, 3 hours 28 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Nov 10, 9:18 AM EST, 3 hours 28 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
918 AM EST Sat Nov 10 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will track into southern Quebec today. Colder air
will pour into the region behind this low, with colder and windy
conditions along with lake effect snow east of the lakes today into
tonight with locally heavy accumulations. Areas of lake effect snow
will lift northward and taper off on Sunday, followed by much colder
than normal weather lasting into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Surface low pressure centered across central Quebec this morning,
with an associated cold front racing east of the area to the eastern
seaboard. Aloft, a closed 500 mb low will rotate through southern
Quebec, with the trailing mid level trough axis crossing our region
today. The passage of this trough will produce scattered snow
showers areawide this afternoon outside of lake effect snow areas.

Off Lake Erie...

A strong band of lake effect snow with 2 inch or slightly better
snowfall rates continues to remain nearly stationary as of mid
morning from the Chautauqua County shore inland across the northern
portions of the western Southern Tier counties, Boston Hills, and
western Wyoming County, with a narrow finger of moderate snow
extending across Letchworth into southern Livingston County. This
band has been much more stationary than model guidance suggested
yesterday, which has led to higher snowfall totals.

Lake induced equilibrium levels will continue to rise to near 20K
feet through early afternoon with the approach of the mid level
trough and associated large scale ascent and mid level cold pool.
Latest mesoscale model guidance and radar trends suggest the band
will remain in a similar location through about 18Z. The mid level
trough and an associated low level trough will then capture the
band, spread it inland and southeastward, with a rapid weakening
trend by mid afternoon. What remains will be WNW upslope snow
showers by late afternoon, with much lower snowfall rates.

Snowfall totals so far are in the 5-8 inch range in most locations
under the heart of the band, and there may be an additional 5-8
inches today in similar areas, with most of that falling through
early afternoon. This will bring totals into the 10-16 inch range in
the most persistent snows.

The lake effect snow will not drift northward as much as previously
anticipated, and will not reach the Buffalo Southtowns or southern
Genesee County, therefore the advisory has been dropped in these
areas.

Off Lake Ontario...

Radar imagery shows a band of somewhat lighter lake effect snow
taking shape across the Tug Hill. The snow may still be mixed with a
little rain close to Lake Ontario this morning before colder air
arrives.

Lake snows off Lake Ontario will be less organized, and take a
bit longer to get going. However, by early afternoon expect
bands off Lake Ontario to become better organized ahead of the
trough. This will result in a burst of snow across the eastern
Lake Ontario region with greatest amounts on the Tug Hill, but some
accumulation just about everywhere. Expect amounts of 3-5 inches
across the Tug Hill today, and 1-3 inches at lower elevations. This
burst will first develop across Jefferson County by early to mid
afternoon, then sweep rapidly south across the Tug Hill to Oswego
County by late afternoon or early evening.

There has been a good deal of thunder and lightning in the Lake Erie
band so far, and this potential will continue through early to mid
afternoon until the trough disrupts the single band. There may be a
brief period of thunder and lightning east of Lake Ontario as well
as the band intensifies and swings southward.

In addition to the lake effect snow, today will be windy with
gusts of 40 - 50 mph. The strongest gusts will be near the
lakeshore where the relatively warm lake waters will aid in mixing.
This may result in some downed tree limbs and isolated power
outages, and areas of blowing snow where temperatures remain below
freezing. Highs today will only be in the lower to mid 30s, with
gusty winds making it feel much colder.

Tonight, equilibrium levels will lower behind the trough and
this combined with drier air will result in diminishing lake
effect snows. However, later in the night there will be an
uptick in activity as winds diminish and upstream lakes
replenish moisture somewhat. Expect lake effect snows to
continue tonight, but to be more localized with minor to locally
moderate additional accumulation. The greatest concern is southeast
of Lake Ontario late tonight, where a singular band may briefly
develop. Outside of the lake snows expect partly cloudy and cold
conditions with low temperatures in the 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Sunday will begin with an area of high pressure just to the south of
the Mason-Dixon line. This surface high pressure will promote the
classic end to lake effect precipitation...with backing winds and
falling lake induced equilibrium levels that will send weakening
bands of lake effect northward. Before the 850 hPa ridge axis passes
Lake Erie late Sunday morning, and Lake Ontario Sunday afternoon we
could still see another inch of snow accumulation, especially off
Lake Ontario. This activity will end Sunday evening on a southwest
flow as a mix of light rain/snow showers near the Saint Lawrence
Valley.

Monday the upper air pattern will begin to buckle with a deep trough
forming over the Midwest, and downstream ridging over the Northeast.
A southerly flow in the lower levels will bring warming through the
boundary layer, with a rather pleasant afternoon for this time of
year with temperatures rising into the low to mid 40s. Clouds will be
thickening through the afternoon and any sunshine fading.

This upper level trough will deepen a storm system...that this time
will ride northward on the eastern slope of the Appalachian
mountains. This -2SD upper level trough will rapidly deepen a
surface low as it advances up the eastern seaboard Monday night and
Tuesday.

We could see a few rain showers late Monday afternoon across the
Niagara Frontier on the leading edge of the upper level trough, but
the bulk of the precipitation will come Monday night and Tuesday.
Initially precipitation will be rain, and may continue as rain
through a good part of Monday night as a tight baroclinic boundary
forms over NYS/New England. Temperatures at 850 hPa will likely rise
to just above 0C late Monday and early Tuesday over our eastern
zones, before much colder air of -10C at 850 hPa presses across the
CWA behind the surface low. In all thermal profiles suggest a mix of
rain/snow...that may linger as rain longest to the east Monday night
before transitioning to all snow late Monday night and Tuesday. This
synoptic snow looks a bit more impressive than the recent event of
Friday. Will mention the possibility of accumulating snows of
several inches in the HWO for this event.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Following the fast moving coastal low that is forecasted to dropped
in pressure near 30 mb in 24 hours, another surge of much colder air
will pour across the Great Lakes region, setting the stage for
another round of accumulating lake effect snow Tuesday night through
Wednesday. Temperatures at 850 hPa will likely lower to -12 to -15C
by Wednesday. Model guidance has been consistent the past few days
in showing northwest flow for this event, favoring the western
Southern Tier and areas southeast of Lake Ontario. If upstream
connections to Georgian Bay and Lake Huron develop, this event may
produce moderate accumulations southeast of the lakes. With a tight
pressure gradient around this surface low, northwest winds will
become gusty Tuesday night into Wednesday.

In addition to the snow, temperatures will also be noticeably colder.
A brisk northwest wind that will be gusty combined with the cold
airmass will likely bring wind chills into the single digits across
much of CWA Wednesday morning. In addition high temperatures
Wednesday may remain below freezing throughout the day...which if
this occurs would be about 10 to 14 days ahead of climo for our
region.

The lake effect snow will gradually end southeast of Lake Erie later
Wednesday or Wednesday night, while the Lake Ontario snow may last
into Thursday morning. Later Thursday and Thursday night warm
advection may bring some light snow or rain/snow mix to the eastern
Lake Ontario region, while the rest of the area likely stays mainly
dry as high pressure builds east across the Ohio Valley to the Mid
Atlantic States. A clipper system moving through the Great Lakes
region Friday may bring some light rain/snow mix.

Temperatures begin to slowly recover by Friday, with highs reaching
the lower 40s at lower elevations.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Lake effect snow and gusty winds will be the main aviation
concern today.

The main impact will be at KJHW, where the band off Lake Erie
will be fairly persistent. Lake snows should also briefly move
into KART today. Lake snows will result in periods of IFR or
lower conditions, with even some thundersnow possible. Lake
snows will be close to KBUF this morning, but the band is
expected to south of the terminal. Lake snows should not impact
KIAG/KROC.

Outside of the lake effect snow expect VFR conditions today. It
will be windy, with gusts of 30- 40 kts. Winds will diminish
this evening, and lake snows will also diminish in intensity.
There may be periods of IFR or lower conditions at KJHW
tonight, with otherwise VFR conditions expected.

Outlook...
Sunday...Mainly VFR...except in areas of lake effect snow and
attendant IFR east of the lakes.
Monday...Areas of MVFR with a chance of rain/snow showers.
Tuesday...Areas of IFR in snow, possibly mixed with rain at
lower elevations.
Wednesday...Areas of IFR in snow.

&&

.MARINE...
Strong low pressure will track into southern Quebec today, which
will establish a tight pressure gradient across the lower Great
Lakes. This will result in gale force winds on the open waters,
with Small Craft Advisories on the rivers.

A surface high pressure ridge will pass across the Lakes Sunday with
a return to calmer conditions, first on Lake Erie and later in the
day on Lake Ontario...with both winds and waves falling below small
craft advisory levels. This period of calmer conditions will
continue through at least Monday night.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Southwesterly winds in the wake of a cold front will result in
a seiche on Lake Erie today. The lake level is expected to
increase to 6 to 7 feet above low water datum. Westerly winds
will shift back to the WSW late morning which may result in a
second rise late morning into early afternoon.

This combined with large wave heights may bring an increase in
beach erosion to the Lake Erie shoreline... and may also impact
Route 5 in the Town of Hamburg with spray from the lake.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for NYZ012-
     019-020-085.
     Lakeshore Flood Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     NYZ010-019-085.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
     NYZ006>008.
     Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ003>005.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for NYZ013-
     021.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ020.
         Gale Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
         LOZ030.
         Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for LOZ043>045-
         063>065.
         Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LOZ042-062.
         Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for
         SLZ022-024.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Apffel/Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Apffel/Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...Hitchcock/Thomas
AVIATION...Apffel
MARINE...Apffel/Fries/JJR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...Thomas/JJR/Hitchcock
Hazardous weather outlook, Nov 10, 9:34 AM EST, 3 hours 12 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
934 AM EST Sat Nov 10 2018

NYZ006>008-111445-
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
934 AM EST Sat Nov 10 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

A storm system rapidly deepening along the eastern seaboard Monday
night and Tuesday could bring several inches of wet snow to the
region. Changes in temperatures at the surface and aloft could alter
the snow forecast upward or downward.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ013-021-111445-
Livingston-Allegany-
934 AM EST Sat Nov 10 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

A storm system rapidly deepening along the eastern seaboard Monday
night and Tuesday could bring several inches of wet snow to the
region. Changes in temperatures at the surface and aloft could alter
the snow forecast upward or downward.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001-002-011-014-111445-
Niagara-Orleans-Genesee-Ontario-
934 AM EST Sat Nov 10 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

A storm system rapidly deepening along the eastern seaboard Monday
night and Tuesday could bring several inches of wet snow to the
region. Changes in temperatures at the surface and aloft could alter
the snow forecast upward or downward.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ003>005-111445-
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-
934 AM EST Sat Nov 10 2018

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

A storm system rapidly deepening along the eastern seaboard Monday
night and Tuesday could bring several inches of wet snow to the
region. Changes in temperatures at the surface and aloft could alter
the snow forecast upward or downward.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ019-085-111445-
Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
934 AM EST Sat Nov 10 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.
   Lakeshore Flood Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

A storm system rapidly deepening along the eastern seaboard Monday
night and Tuesday could bring several inches of wet snow to the
region. Changes in temperatures at the surface and aloft could alter
the snow forecast upward or downward.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ010-111445-
Northern Erie-
934 AM EST Sat Nov 10 2018

...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Lakeshore Flood Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

A storm system rapidly deepening along the eastern seaboard Monday
night and Tuesday could bring several inches of wet snow to the
region. Changes in temperatures at the surface and aloft could alter
the snow forecast upward or downward.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ012-020-111445-
Wyoming-Cattaraugus-
934 AM EST Sat Nov 10 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

A storm system rapidly deepening along the eastern seaboard Monday
night and Tuesday could bring several inches of wet snow to the
region. Changes in temperatures at the surface and aloft could alter
the snow forecast upward or downward.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ043>045-063>065-111445-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
934 AM EST Sat Nov 10 2018

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ042-062-111445-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
934 AM EST Sat Nov 10 2018

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ040-041-111445-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
934 AM EST Sat Nov 10 2018

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-LOZ030-SLZ022-024-111445-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
934 AM EST Sat Nov 10 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake
Ontario and Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Hitchcock

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Nov 10, 9:06 AM EST, 3 hours 40 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
906 AM EST SAT NOV 10 2018

NYZ012-013-019>021-085-101600-
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Livingston-Southern Erie-Wyoming-
906 AM EST SAT NOV 10 2018

...A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL AFFECT WYOMING...NORTHERN
CATTARAUGUS...SOUTHERN ERIE...SOUTHERN LIVINGSTON...NORTHERN
CHAUTAUQUA AND NORTHERN ALLEGANY COUNTIES...

A band of heavy lake effect snow producing snow fall rates of around
2 inches per hour will continue through late morning. The heaviest
snow will focus from the Lake Erie shore of Chautauqua County inland
across northern Cattaraugus, northern Allegany, southern Erie, and
western Wyoming counties. A narrow band will also extend across
Letchworth State Park and into southern Livingston County.

Winds of up to 40 mph are expected in and near this band of lake
effect snow, producing blowing and drifting snow and very poor
visibility.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 390 between exits 4 and 7.
 Interstate 90 between exits 61 and 57A.

Use extra caution if you must travel into or through this dangerous
band of lake effect snow. Be prepared for severe winter driving
conditions with very poor visibility and deep snow cover on roads.

LAT...LON 4232 7977 4244 7950 4253 7939 4259 7919
      4267 7912 4280 7832 4275 7765 4258 7760
      4258 7766 4253 7766 4253 7772 4244 7773
      4240 7870 4219 7976 4227 7976 4228 7973

Hitchcock
Local storm report, Nov 10, 9:25 AM EST, 3 hours 21 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
925 AM EST SAT NOV 10 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0924 AM     SNOW             EAST AURORA             42.72N  78.61W
11/10/2018  M6.0 INCH        ERIE               NY   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1800660

DPK
Local storm report, Nov 10, 10:43 AM EST, 2 hours 3 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1043 AM EST SAT NOV 10 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     SNOW             2 SE GLENWOOD           42.60N  78.64W
11/10/2018  M3.8 INCH        ERIE               NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0800 AM     SNOW             CATTARAUGUS             42.32N  78.87W
11/10/2018  M5.0 INCH        CATTARAUGUS        NY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0800 AM     SNOW             RUSHFORD                42.43N  78.19W
11/10/2018  M4.4 INCH        ALLEGANY           NY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0900 AM     SNOW             4 SW WEST ALMOND        42.27N  77.94W
11/10/2018  M3.6 INCH        ALLEGANY           NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0935 AM     SNOW             1 ENE DANSVILLE         42.57N  77.68W
11/10/2018  M4.0 INCH        LIVINGSTON         NY   COCORAHS

            3.2 INCHES FELL IN THE PAST 90 MINUTES

1030 AM     SNOW             2 NE BOSTON             42.65N  78.72W
11/10/2018  M5.8 INCH        ERIE               NY   COCORAHS

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1800661
EVENT NUMBER BUF1800662
EVENT NUMBER BUF1800663
EVENT NUMBER BUF1800664
EVENT NUMBER BUF1800665
EVENT NUMBER BUF1800666

DPK
Local storm report, Nov 10, 10:46 AM EST, 2 hours before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1046 AM EST SAT NOV 10 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1045 AM     SNOW             PORTAGEVILLE            42.57N  78.04W
11/10/2018  M4.5 INCH        WYOMING            NY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            4.3 INCHES SINCE 8 AM

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1800667

DPK
Local storm report, Nov 10, 11:18 AM EST, 1 hour 28 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1118 AM EST SAT NOV 10 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1058 AM     SNOW             DUNKIRK                 42.48N  79.33W
11/10/2018  E4.5 INCH        CHAUTAUQUA         NY   NEWSPAPER

1113 AM     SNOW             4 WSW WARSAW            42.72N  78.21W
11/10/2018  M9.0 INCH        WYOMING            NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            7 INCHES IN THE PAST 3 HOURS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1800668
EVENT NUMBER BUF1800669

DPK
Special weather statement, Nov 10, 12:46 PM EST, 0 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1246 PM EST SAT NOV 10 2018

NYZ006>008-101845-
Jefferson-Oswego-Lewis-
1246 PM EST SAT NOV 10 2018

...BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL AFFECT JEFFERSON...LEWIS AND
NORTHERN OSWEGO COUNTIES...

A broken band of lake effect snow over much of Lewis County will
merge with an approaching band of snow showers along a cold front,
resulting in a brief snow squall moving from northwest to southeast
across much of the eastern Lake Ontario region and dropping a quick
inch of accumulation.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this snow squall,
producing blowing and drifting snow.

This includes Interstate 81 between exits 38 and 52.

Use extra caution if you must travel into or through this snow
squall. Rapid changes in visibility and potentially slick roads are
likely to lead to accidents. Consider delaying travel until the
squall passes your location.

LAT...LON 4440 7583 4439 7584 4410 7517 4361 7511
      4357 7520 4368 7626 4378 7629 4383 7636
      4387 7635 4384 7645 4387 7650 4391 7650
      4396 7644 4396 7634 4402 7636 4410 7643
      4414 7635 4420 7631 4422 7619 4429 7615

Hitchcock

The office that day

Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Nov 10, 3:19 AM ESTWinter Storm WarningBUFCattaraugus, Chautauqua, Erie, Wyoming15 hr
Nov 10, 3:20 AM ESTWind AdvisoryBUFCayuga, Monroe, Wayne15 hr
Nov 10, 7:35 AM ESTSpecial Weather StatementBUFAllegany, Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Wyoming85 min
Nov 10, 9:06 AM ESTSpecial Weather StatementBUFChautauqua, Livingston, Wyoming114 min
Nov 10, 1:47 PM ESTSpecial Weather StatementBUFJefferson, Lewis58 min
Nov 10, 4:34 PM ESTSnow Squall WarningBUFCayuga, Lewis, Oswego41 min
Nov 10, 5:12 PM ESTSnow Squall WarningBUFCayuga, Lewis, Oswego48 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in New York, 2018Every special weather statement in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.