Small Craft Advisory 44, NWS Buffalo, NY

411 
WHUS71 KBUF 112049
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
449 PM EDT Wed Apr 11 2018

LEZ040-041-120500-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.180412T1300Z-180413T0800Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
449 PM EDT Wed Apr 11 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO
4 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WINDS...Southwest 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...4 to 7 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-120500-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.180412T1800Z-180413T0800Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
449 PM EDT Wed Apr 11 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO
4 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WINDS...West 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 6 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043>045-120500-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.180412T2000Z-180413T1200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
449 PM EDT Wed Apr 11 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO
8 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WINDS...West 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...4 to 7 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ030-120500-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.180412T1800Z-180413T0000Z/
Lower Niagara River-
449 PM EDT Wed Apr 11 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WINDS...Southwest 20 to 25 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-120500-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.180412T1300Z-180413T0800Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
449 PM EDT Wed Apr 11 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO
4 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WINDS...Southwest 20 to 25 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

HITCHCOCK

041 
WHUS71 KBUF 120232
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1032 PM EDT Wed Apr 11 2018

LEZ040-041-121045-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.180412T1300Z-180413T0800Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
1032 PM EDT Wed Apr 11 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO
4 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WINDS...Southwest 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...4 to 7 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-121045-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.180412T1800Z-180413T0800Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
1032 PM EDT Wed Apr 11 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO
4 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WINDS...West 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 6 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043>045-121045-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.180412T2000Z-180413T1200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
1032 PM EDT Wed Apr 11 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO
8 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WINDS...West 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...4 to 7 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ030-121045-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.180412T1800Z-180413T0000Z/
Lower Niagara River-
1032 PM EDT Wed Apr 11 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WINDS...Southwest 20 to 25 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-121045-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.180412T1300Z-180413T0800Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
1032 PM EDT Wed Apr 11 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO
4 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WINDS...Southwest 20 to 25 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

HITCHCOCK

759 
WHUS71 KBUF 120848
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
448 AM EDT Thu Apr 12 2018

SLZ022-024-121700-
/O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.180412T2200Z-180413T0600Z/
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
448 AM EDT Thu Apr 12 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM
EDT FRIDAY...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Small Craft
Advisory, which is in effect from 6 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT
Friday.

* WINDS...Southwest 15 to 20 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-121700-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.180412T1300Z-180413T0800Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
448 AM EDT Thu Apr 12 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING
TO 4 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WINDS...Southwest 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 5 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-121700-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.180412T1800Z-180413T0800Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
448 AM EDT Thu Apr 12 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WINDS...Southwest 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 5 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043>045-121700-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.180412T2000Z-180413T1200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
448 AM EDT Thu Apr 12 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 5 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ030-121700-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.180412T1800Z-180413T0000Z/
Lower Niagara River-
448 AM EDT Thu Apr 12 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WINDS...Southwest 15 to 20 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-121700-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.180412T1300Z-180413T0800Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
448 AM EDT Thu Apr 12 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING
TO 4 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WINDS...Southwest 15 to 20 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

646 
WHUS71 KBUF 121411
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1011 AM EDT Thu Apr 12 2018

LEZ040-041-122215-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.000000T0000Z-180413T0800Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
1011 AM EDT Thu Apr 12 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WINDS...Southwest 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 5 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-122215-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.180412T1800Z-180413T0800Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
1011 AM EDT Thu Apr 12 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WINDS...Southwest 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 5 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043>045-122215-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.180412T2000Z-180413T1200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
1011 AM EDT Thu Apr 12 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WINDS...West 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 5 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ030-122215-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.180412T1800Z-180413T0000Z/
Lower Niagara River-
1011 AM EDT Thu Apr 12 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WINDS...Southwest 15 to 20 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-122215-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.000000T0000Z-180413T0800Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
1011 AM EDT Thu Apr 12 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WINDS...Southwest 15 to 20 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

SLZ022-024-122215-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.180412T2200Z-180413T0600Z/
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
1011 AM EDT Thu Apr 12 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
TO 2 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WINDS...Southwest 15 to 20 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

Church

069 
WHUS71 KBUF 121723
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
123 PM EDT Thu Apr 12 2018

LEZ040-041-130130-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.000000T0000Z-180413T0800Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
123 PM EDT Thu Apr 12 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WINDS...Southwest 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 6 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-130130-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.180412T1800Z-180413T0800Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
123 PM EDT Thu Apr 12 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WINDS...Southwest 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 5 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043>045-130130-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.180412T2000Z-180413T1200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
123 PM EDT Thu Apr 12 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WINDS...West 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 6 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ030-130000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.180412T1800Z-180413T0000Z/
Lower Niagara River-
123 PM EDT Thu Apr 12 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...Southwest 15 to 20 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-130130-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.000000T0000Z-180413T0800Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
123 PM EDT Thu Apr 12 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WINDS...Southwest 15 to 20 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

SLZ022-024-130130-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.180412T2200Z-180413T0600Z/
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
123 PM EDT Thu Apr 12 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
TO 2 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WINDS...Southwest 15 to 20 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

Church

032 
WHUS71 KBUF 122025
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
425 PM EDT Thu Apr 12 2018

LEZ040-041-130430-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.000000T0000Z-180413T0800Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
425 PM EDT Thu Apr 12 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WINDS...Southwest 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 6 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-130430-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.000000T0000Z-180413T0800Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
425 PM EDT Thu Apr 12 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WINDS...West 15 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 5 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043>045-130430-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.000000T0000Z-180413T1200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
425 PM EDT Thu Apr 12 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WINDS...West 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 6 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ030-130000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.000000T0000Z-180413T0000Z/
Lower Niagara River-
425 PM EDT Thu Apr 12 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...Southwest 15 to 25 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-130430-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.000000T0000Z-180413T0800Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
425 PM EDT Thu Apr 12 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WINDS...West 15 to 25 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

SLZ022-024-130430-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.180412T2200Z-180413T0600Z/
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
425 PM EDT Thu Apr 12 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WINDS...Southwest 15 to 25 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

HITCHCOCK

090 
WHUS71 KBUF 122310
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
710 PM EDT Thu Apr 12 2018

LOZ030-130015-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.000000T0000Z-180413T0000Z/
Lower Niagara River-
710 PM EDT Thu Apr 12 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has cancelled the Small
Craft Advisory.

Winds will quickly diminish this evening.

$$

SLZ022-024-130015-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.000000T0000Z-180413T0600Z/
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
710 PM EDT Thu Apr 12 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has cancelled the Small
Craft Advisory.

Winds will remain 15 knots or less tonight.

$$

LEZ040-041-130715-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.000000T0000Z-180413T0800Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
710 PM EDT Thu Apr 12 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WINDS...Southwest 15 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 6 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-130715-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.000000T0000Z-180413T0800Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
710 PM EDT Thu Apr 12 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 5 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043>045-130715-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.000000T0000Z-180413T1200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
710 PM EDT Thu Apr 12 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 6 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-130715-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.000000T0000Z-180413T0800Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
710 PM EDT Thu Apr 12 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WINDS...West 15 to 25 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

HITCHCOCK

226 
WHUS71 KBUF 130225
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1025 PM EDT Thu Apr 12 2018

LEZ020-130330-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.000000T0000Z-180413T0800Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
1025 PM EDT Thu Apr 12 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has cancelled the Small
Craft Advisory.

Winds will continue to diminish overnight.

$$

LEZ040-041-130800-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.000000T0000Z-180413T0800Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
1025 PM EDT Thu Apr 12 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WINDS...Southwest 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 5 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-130800-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.000000T0000Z-180413T0800Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
1025 PM EDT Thu Apr 12 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...2 to 4 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043>045-131030-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.000000T0000Z-180413T1200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
1025 PM EDT Thu Apr 12 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 5 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

HITCHCOCK

769 
WHUS71 KBUF 130923
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
523 AM EDT Fri Apr 13 2018

LOZ045-131030-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.000000T0000Z-180413T1200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
523 AM EDT Fri Apr 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has cancelled the Small
Craft Advisory.


$$

LOZ043-131730-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.000000T0000Z-180413T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.A.0005.180414T2200Z-180415T1800Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
523 AM EDT Fri Apr 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...
...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Gale Watch,
which is in effect from Saturday evening through Sunday
afternoon.

* WINDS...Northeast to 35 knots.

* WAVES...9 to 12 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased...but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

LOZ044-131200-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.000000T0000Z-180413T1200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
523 AM EDT Fri Apr 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

* WINDS...West 10 to 15 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 4 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-062-063-131730-
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.A.0005.180414T2200Z-180415T1800Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
523 AM EDT Fri Apr 13 2018

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Gale Watch,
which is in effect from Saturday evening through Sunday
afternoon.

* WINDS...Northeast to 35 knots.

* WAVES...11 to 15 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased...but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

442 
WHUS71 KBUF 131033
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
633 AM EDT Fri Apr 13 2018

LOZ043-131845-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.000000T0000Z-180413T1200Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0005.180414T2200Z-180415T1800Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
633 AM EDT Fri Apr 13 2018

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has cancelled the Small
Craft Advisory.

* WINDS...Northeast to 35 knots.

* WAVES...9 to 12 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased...but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

LOZ044-131145-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.000000T0000Z-180413T1200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
633 AM EDT Fri Apr 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has cancelled the Small
Craft Advisory.


$$

LOZ042-062-063-131845-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0005.180414T2200Z-180415T1800Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
633 AM EDT Fri Apr 13 2018

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

* WINDS...Northeast to 35 knots.

* WAVES...11 to 15 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased...but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1052 AM EDT Wed Apr 11 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A disturbance will bring light rain and snow showers across the
region late this afternoon and evening. After a brief break
overnight, soaking rain with a warm front will cross the region from
southwest to northeast Thursday morning through early afternoon,
along with warmer and breezy conditions Thursday afternoon. A
frontal boundary will stall across the region Friday and into the
weekend...providing a focus for periods of precipitation and large
temperature swings near and south of Lake Ontario.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Clouds will thicken through the morning hours, with the region
remaining mostly precipitation free with weak high pressure nearby.
Ahead of the shortwave a SSW wind will develop. This wind flow will
favor strongest gusts across the northtowns of Buffalo and near
Niagara Falls where winds may gust near 40 mph. Farther to the east
the LLJ and surface pressure gradient will not be as strong and SSW
winds will be lighter. Also as we warm through the day inland a meso
high and its associated dome of cooler air will form over the still
cold lake waters such that winds will likely not be as strong over
Lake Erie and right along the immediate lake shoreline.

As shortwave aloft bear down upon our region this afternoon,
precipitation will reach WNY by around 3 to 4 pm. Initially rain
will fall, but as we evaporatively cool the lower, drier levels rain
will likely mix and change over to a little wet snow as the event
unfolds, mainly over the higher terrain. Greatest chance for any
measurable snow accumulation will be over the higher terrain...and
even this will be minor (less than an inch).

The upper level shortwave will exit our region this evening and a
brief period of dry weather will ensue. We will begin to warm aloft,
and as a warm front approaches our region from the Ohio Valley a
period of rain will near the region, likely making it to the So.
Tier and portions of the Niagara Frontier by dawn.

Highs today will peak in the lower 40s, cooling some this afternoon
within the falling precipitation. Tonight lows will only fall back a
few degrees...into the mid 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A major change in the overlying pattern will finally allow us to
turn the calender from winter to spring for much of our forecast
area during this period...especially over the Southern Tier where
the mercury could climb to more than 10 deg above normal. More on
that in a moment.

In the twenty four hours leading into this period...the persistent
west coast ridge that had been largely responsible for a prolonged
feed of Canadian/sub arctic air into the Great Lakes Region will
break down. This will not only open the door for Pacific modified
air to flood the Lower 48...but an ensuing powerful storm over the
Inter mountain region will force significant amplification of a
downstream ridge. Eventually...the tempered nature of the
aforementioned Pacific modified air will be reinforced by warmth
that will surge northward from the GOMEX. While there is high
confidence that the Spring warmth will advect as far north as the
Upper Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic region...there remains a great
deal of uncertainty as to whether this welcomed change will be
experienced across all of our forecast area.

The low confidence in the forecast heading into the weekend will lay
squarely at the feet of a large...strengthening surface high that
will drift from the Canadian prairies to James Bay. Some of the
guidance suggests that this fair weather giant will build to
1050mb...while other modeling only has the system reaching 1040mb.
This 10mb pressure difference will be at the core of the ensuing
clash that will take place between the Canadian high and a weakening
stacked low over the center of the country. The strength of the two
systems will depend on where the battle lines will be drawn between
sharply colder air to the north...and warm springlike air to the
south. The exceptionally tight baroclinic zone will either set up
directly over our region...or to our north. The first scenario has
the makings of a late season North Country ice storm...while the
latter will enable a large chunk of air area to bask in early May-
like weather. Stay tuned. As far as the day to day details...

This period will start off very unsettled as a compact area of low
pressure will track by to our north on Thursday. Strong isentropic
forcing ahead of this feature...enhanced by a 55-60kt low level
jet...will combine with impressive lift offered under the left front
exit region of a powerful 130kt H25 jet to generate a 3 to 4 hour
period of steady rain. The rain will already be underway across the
far western counties by daybreak Thursday...with the 100 mile swath
of soaking rain steadily pushing east across the remainder of the
forecast area during the course of the morning and midday. As the
core of the mid level moisture is shunted to the east in the wake of
a pseudo warm frontal boundary...the western counties will emerge
into the semblance of a short lived warm sector. This will force the
steady rain to quickly taper off to scattered light showers...with
the pcpn temporarily stopping altogether over the far western
counties. The focus will then turn to the strong low level jet.

Significant drying in the mid levels for the western counties during
the afternoon could encourage a few breaks of sun. While that
particular area will find itself within a warm sector (where a
relatively low inversion will be in place)...at least a portion of
the stronger winds aloft will be diurnally/mechanically mixed to the
surface. Will thus continue to carry southwest gusts over 30 mph for
much of western New York for the afternoon...with gusts over 40 mph
not out of the question over the IAG Frontier. The very breezy
afternoon will be accompanied by very welcomed spring temperatures.
H85 temps in the vcnty of 6c over the western counties will easily
support afternoon readings in the upper 50s to lower 60s...although
a chilly flow off Lake Erie will keep the immediate BUF metro area
in the low 50s. Temperatures across the North Country will likely
also top out in the lower 50s...as the pseudo-warm front may never
completely move through that portion of the forecast area.

The passing cyclone to our north will sweep its associated cold
front through our region late Thursday afternoon-early evening. This
may be the most susceptible time to experience any strong gusts from
the passing 55-60kt low level jet...as the shielding inversion will
be removed to allow for residual strong winds aloft to mix. Any
showers that develop along and immediately ahead of the front will
be particularly favorable for aiding in this downward momentum.
Given the lack of mid level moisture though...am not expecting much
shower activity at all with the cold frontal passage.

As we push through the overnight...the cold front will settle as far
south as the Pennsylvania border where it will stall and await
upstream forcing on Friday. The stalled front will watch from below
while steadily rising hgts will overspread the Lower Great Lakes.
This will help to suppress any shower activity and should favor
uneventful weather through most of the night.

Renewed shower activity may start to blossom to the north of the
stalled boundary during the wee hours of Friday morning...and is
forecast to notably increase during the midday and afternoon. Most
of this shower activity will be found near Lake Ontario and across
the North Country where an elevated boundary and tightening
baroclinic zone will be found. This will result in a day of chilly
unsettled weather for the North Country...and especially the
Thousand Islands region where some steady rain may again take shape.
There will be a large variation in temperature across the forecast
area on Friday...with afternoon temperatures ranging from the 60s
and possibly lower 70s across the Southern Tier to the mid 40s for
much of Lewis County and the Thousand Islands region.

The tightly packed baroclinic zone will remain locked in place to
the north of Lake Ontario Friday night...during which time fairly
steady rain will fall over areas north of the Tug Hill. Meanwhile
over the western counties...a lack of forcing under the approaching
crest of the amplifying ridge will keep mainly pcpn free...
particularly over the Southern Tier counties. The tight gradient in
Pops will be accompanied by a similar temperature patter...as mins
Friday night will range from the upper 40s near the Pennsylvania
border to the mid 30s across the North Country.

On Saturday...the nearly stationary mature storm system over the
plains will grudgingly drift east to the confluence of the Ohio and
Mississippi River. Likewise...the centered of the strengthening high
over eastern Canada will advance to the east to near James Bay. This
coordinated movement between the two competing features will result
in two things. First...moisture ahead of the storm system will be
pushed over our forecast area. Meanwhile...the advancing Canadian
high will suppress the tightly packed H925-h85 thermal gradient back
to the south of the International border. This will set the stage
for strong frontogenetic forcing over our region with the increased
moisture allowing for steady rain to develop. This will especially
be the case Saturday night when the stacked low painstakingly pushes
up the Lower Ohio Valley.

The problem that could ensue would be a period of freezing rain
later Saturday night into Sunday...as a steady clockwise flow of
chilly air around the Canadian high will advance from the Thousand
Islands region across Lake Ontario. While the potential for freezing
rain has been added to the North Country for Saturday night...it is
not difficult to imagine how enough of the cold air could funnel to
the southwest across a frictionless Lake Ontario to its southern
shoreline.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The area of low pressure over the Ohio Valley late Saturday night
will push north to Lake Erie during the course of Sunday. A deep
southerly flow ahead of this system will effectively shove the tight
baroclinic zone back to the north into Canada...but not before a
strong low level jet ridging up and over the thermal boundary
generates more widespread rain. This will bring an end to any
freezing rain threat as temperatures north and east of Lake Ontario
will climb well above freezing.

The strong surface high to the north looks to weaken while shifting
into northern Quebec Sunday night and Monday allowing the center of
the storm system to track somewhere across eastern Great Lakes. The
GFS/GEM are fastest with this track pushing the systems cold front
across our region Sunday night with the EC slower holding the
frontal passage until Monday. A forecast of high probabilities for
rain showers continues through Monday with the track of the storm
and associated frontal boundaries near or over western and central
NY. Convective parameters are low so left out a mention of
thunderstorms this far out but if instability looks stronger as we
move closer to the weekend, we may add some thunder into the
forecast.

Temps will fall back below normal behind the storm system with
strong cold air advection. Highs in the 40s are most probable Monday
and even lower with 30s to around 40 for Tuesday. Overnight temps
should remain above freezing until Monday night. Expect wrap around
moisture behind the low to continue to generate opportunities for
rain showers through Tuesday then as colder air arrives rain and
snow showers will be likely.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An upper level shortwave will cross the region this afternoon and
evening, bringing a brief period of precipitation to the airports.
This precipitation will be a mix...trending to snow and IFR
visibilities across KJHW/KART...while KROC will likely remain all
rain (MVFR/VFR visibilities) within the Genesee Valley. KBUF/KIAG
will likely receive a mix of precipitation.

It will also be breezy today south of Lake Ontario, with a SSW wind
gusting to 30 to 35 knots. Strongest winds will likely be at
KIAG/KBUF. East of Lake Ontario lighter winds will likely have
gusts peaking around 20 to 25 knots for KART.

After this precipitation ends through the evening another period of
dry weather will ensue...until a warm front brings the threat of
rain showers to far WNY late tonight and towards dawn Thursday
morning.

Outlook...

Thursday...MVFR/IFR with rain...and windy conditions possible.
Friday...Mainly VFR with a chance of rain showers.
Saturday...VFR with a chance of rain showers late.
Sunday and Monday...MVFR/IFR with rain showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwest winds will increase today ahead of an upper level
disturbance that will race across the Eastern Great Lakes region.
Winds on Lake Erie and the western waters of Lake Ontario will
increase to 15 knots or so, while lighter winds will be found
farther to the east. After sunset these winds will quickly diminish
with waves also relaxing.

Thursday a stronger push of southwest winds will pass across the
Eastern Great lakes region with small craft advisories likely.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Church/Thomas
NEAR TERM...Church/Thomas
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH/Smith
AVIATION...Church/Thomas
MARINE...Church/Thomas

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
448 AM EDT Wed Apr 11 2018

NYZ001>006-010>014-019>021-085-120900-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Northern Erie-
Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
Southern Erie-
448 AM EDT Wed Apr 11 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ007-008-120900-
Jefferson-Lewis-
448 AM EDT Wed Apr 11 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The chance for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Rain on Saturday will likely change to freezing rain Saturday night
into Sunday morning. There will be the potential for significant ice
accumulation...especially in the Thousand Islands region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-120900-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
448 AM EDT Wed Apr 11 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake
Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf