Small Craft Advisory 109, NWS Buffalo, NY

871 
WHUS71 KBUF 021439
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
939 AM EST Sun Dec 2 2018

LEZ040-041-022245-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0109.181203T0600Z-181203T2100Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
939 AM EST Sun Dec 2 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST
MONDAY...

* WINDS...West to 30 knots.

* WAVES...4 to 7 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-022245-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0109.181203T0800Z-181203T1800Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
939 AM EST Sun Dec 2 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 1 PM EST
MONDAY...

* WINDS...West 20 to 25 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-022245-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0109.181203T0800Z-181204T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
939 AM EST Sun Dec 2 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM MONDAY TO
1 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 6 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-044-022245-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0109.181203T1100Z-181204T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
939 AM EST Sun Dec 2 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO
4 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WINDS...Northwest to 30 knots.

* WAVES...5 to 8 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-022245-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0109.181203T1100Z-181204T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
939 AM EST Sun Dec 2 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EST
MONDAY...

* WINDS...West 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...4 to 7 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

765 
WHUS71 KBUF 022233
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
533 PM EST Sun Dec 2 2018

LEZ040-041-030645-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0109.181203T0600Z-181203T2100Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
533 PM EST Sun Dec 2 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST
MONDAY...

* WINDS...West 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...5 to 8 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-030645-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0109.181203T0800Z-181203T1800Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
533 PM EST Sun Dec 2 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 1 PM EST
MONDAY...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-030645-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0109.181203T0800Z-181204T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
533 PM EST Sun Dec 2 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM MONDAY TO
1 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WINDS...Northwest 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 5 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-044-030645-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0109.181203T1100Z-181204T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
533 PM EST Sun Dec 2 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO
4 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WINDS...Northwest 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 6 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-030645-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0109.181203T1100Z-181204T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
533 PM EST Sun Dec 2 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EST
MONDAY...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...4 to 7 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

608 
WHUS71 KBUF 030355
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1055 PM EST Sun Dec 2 2018

LEZ040-041-031200-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0109.181203T0600Z-181203T2100Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
1055 PM EST Sun Dec 2 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY...

* WINDS...West 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...5 to 8 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-031200-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0109.181203T0800Z-181203T1800Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
1055 PM EST Sun Dec 2 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 1 PM EST
MONDAY...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-031200-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0109.181203T0800Z-181204T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
1055 PM EST Sun Dec 2 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM MONDAY TO
1 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 5 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-044-031200-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0109.181203T1100Z-181204T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
1055 PM EST Sun Dec 2 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO
4 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 6 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-031200-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0109.181203T1100Z-181204T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
1055 PM EST Sun Dec 2 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EST
MONDAY...

* WINDS...West 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...4 to 7 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

290 
WHUS71 KBUF 031150
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
650 AM EST Mon Dec 3 2018

LEZ040-041-032000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0109.000000T0000Z-181203T2100Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
650 AM EST Mon Dec 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WINDS...West to 30 knots this morning becoming northwest 15 to
  20 knots late this morning.

* WAVES...6 to 9 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-031800-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0109.000000T0000Z-181203T1800Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
650 AM EST Mon Dec 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-032000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0109.000000T0000Z-181204T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
650 AM EST Mon Dec 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 6 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-044-032000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0109.000000T0000Z-181204T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
650 AM EST Mon Dec 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...5 to 8 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-032000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0109.000000T0000Z-181204T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
650 AM EST Mon Dec 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...West to 30 knots.

* WAVES...6 to 9 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

653 
WHUS71 KBUF 031802
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
102 PM EST Mon Dec 3 2018

LEZ020-031915-
/O.EXP.KBUF.SC.Y.0109.000000T0000Z-181203T1800Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
102 PM EST Mon Dec 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has allowed the Small 
Craft Advisory to expire.

$$

LEZ040-041-032100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0109.000000T0000Z-181203T2100Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
102 PM EST Mon Dec 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WINDS...Northwest 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 6 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-040215-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0109.000000T0000Z-181204T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
102 PM EST Mon Dec 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...Northwest 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 6 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-044-040215-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0109.000000T0000Z-181204T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
102 PM EST Mon Dec 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...Northwest 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...4 to 7 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-040000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0109.000000T0000Z-181204T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
102 PM EST Mon Dec 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...Northwest 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...4 to 7 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

418 
WHUS71 KBUF 032041
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
341 PM EST Mon Dec 3 2018

LEZ040-041-032145-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0109.000000T0000Z-181203T2100Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
341 PM EST Mon Dec 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has cancelled the Small
Craft Advisory.


$$

LOZ042-040445-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0109.000000T0000Z-181204T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
341 PM EST Mon Dec 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...Northwest 10 to 15 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 5 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-044-040445-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0109.000000T0000Z-181204T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
341 PM EST Mon Dec 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...Northwest 10 to 15 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 6 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-040000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0109.000000T0000Z-181204T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
341 PM EST Mon Dec 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...Northwest 5 to 10 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 6 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

531 
WHUS71 KBUF 032334
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
634 PM EST Mon Dec 3 2018

LOZ043-044-040045-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0109.000000T0000Z-181204T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
634 PM EST Mon Dec 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has cancelled the Small
Craft Advisory.


$$

LOZ042-040045-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0109.000000T0000Z-181204T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
634 PM EST Mon Dec 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has cancelled the Small
Craft Advisory.



$$

LOZ045-040045-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0109.000000T0000Z-181204T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
634 PM EST Mon Dec 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has cancelled the Small
Craft Advisory.



$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1247 AM EST Sun Dec 2 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of low pressure will bring steady rain into the region from
southwest to northeast tonight. A few showers will be possible
Sunday and it will be much milder with temperatures in the 50s
across most of Western New York. Colder weather along with some lake
effect showers will return next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Main swath of rain will continue to track across much of WNY
and eastern Lake Ontario with the back edge moving east from
Jamestown to Rochester late tonight. The next chance for rain
will come as a strong jet streak arrives in the next few hours.
Currently, a disorganized line of showers with embedded thunder
is moving north across Central Ohio. This activity will move
into WNY into the early morning hours and although instability
will weaken some, thunder is not out of the question through
daybreak across WNY. East of Lake Ontario, temperature readings
are between 32-25 degrees across higher elevations. Although
most of the region will experience rain, a few pockets of
freezing rain are expected through the early morning hours.
Winter Weather Advisory continues for Lewis County until 9z.

Activity then looks to possibly become more scattered late
tonight and early Sunday morning as impressive dry slot attempts
to push its way northeast into western New York. Rainfall
amounts through tonight will range from a third of an inch
across the Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes to a half to three
quarters of an inch across the western Southern Tier and east of
Lake Ontario.

Rain and rising dewpoints will create areas of fog tonight
especially for those areas with considerable snow cover.
Thermal profiles continuing to suggest that this will be a
mainly rain event, but by the time the rain reaches the North
country sub-freezing surface temperatures may well be in place,
this should especially be the case for the higher elevations of
Lewis County including the Tug Hill and western Adirondacks.
Any ice accumulations should be light and under a tenth of an
inch. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for this area
tonight.

Steady temperatures this late evening will then start to rise
late tonight and into early Sunday morning, with most areas
across western New York in the lower to mid 40s by Sunday
morning.

Sunday, we wind up in the warm sector ahead of an approaching
cold front. It will be breezy, but a much milder day. High
temperatures should easily climb into the 50s for most
locations. Some rain may linger across the North Country as the
warm front pushes through that area, otherwise it should be
mainly dry.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Sunday night and Monday elongated low pressure will track from Lake
Huron across Southern Quebec and into the Canadian Maritimes. In the
process of doing so...this feature will push an initial modest cold
front across the area Sunday night...followed by a second...stronger...
and more anabatic cold front during the day Monday.

The first boundary should produce an initial round of scattered to
numerous showers as it passes through our region Sunday night...with
a second round of more numerous showers then accompanying and following
the passage of the second/stronger cold front very late Sunday night
and Monday...with the latter becoming most numerous east of the lakes
as orographic influences come into play.

Temperature-wise the passage of the initial cold front will be
followed by only modest cold air advection Sunday night...which will
result in lows merely settling into the lower 40s in most areas...
with just the highest terrain seeing readings reach the upper 30s.
Relatively mild readings in the lower to mid 40s will then persist
into Monday morning...before a shot of stronger cold air advection
arriving in the wake of the second cold front helps to drive readings
down into the 30s Monday afternoon. All of this will result in the
showers remaining in the form of just plain rain Sunday night and
Monday morning...before mixing with and/or changing over to some
wet snow showers Monday afternoon. While this will probably allow
for some minor slushy accumulations of an inch or less across the
higher terrain by the end of the day Monday...for the most part the
lower elevations will probably see little more than a light dusting.

In the wake of the secondary cold front...a broad northwesterly to
northerly flow of much colder air will then follow for Monday night
and Tuesday. While this airmass will be plenty cold enough to support
a lake response...its increasingly rather dry nature...the short
fetch across the lakes...a capping inversion lowering to between
3-5 kft...and the presence of at least some directional shear should
all help conspire to keep this relatively minimal...with just some
scattered snow showers expected southeast of the lakes and in areas
of favored upslope flow. Outside of these it will merely be dry and
much colder...with temperatures settling back into the 20s Monday
night...then struggling to get much above the upper 20s (higher
terrain) to lower 30s (lower elevations) on Tuesday.

Tuesday night and Wednesday the low level flow should gradually back
to westerly...in response to surface-based ridging sliding into the
Tennessee Valley and a weak clipper system developing into the northern
Plains states. With our airmass easily remaining cold enough to support
a lake response...the backing low level flow and lengthening fetch
should allow the lake effect snow showers to become at least a little
better organized east of both lakes...though these may still be held
at least somewhat in check by a 5-8 kft cap and (consequently) the
lack of truly deep moisture. Outside of the lake effect snow showers
conditions should again just be mainly dry and cold...with lows
Tuesday night ranging from the teens across the North Country to
the lower to mid 20s south of Lake Ontario...and highs on Wednesday
ranging from the upper 20s across the highest terrain to the lower
to mid 30s across the lower elevations.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High confidence remains in place that we will experience below
normal temperatures through this forecast period. The bulk of the
GFS ensemble members as well as the ECMWF deterministic run agree on
a longwave trough remaining parked over the eastern half of the
continent.

In regards to precipitation...the main concern will be two rounds of
lake snow that could lead to significant accumulations...
particularly in the vcnty of the Tug Hill. This could result in
winter weather headlines (advisories/warnings)...so stay tuned.
Breaking this down on a day to day basis...

As we open this period Wednesday night...weak mid level ridging and
the nose of its associated sfc high will push across the region
Wednesday night. This should encourage fair dry weather over much of
the forecast area...however a deep westerly flow of moderately cold
air will support lake snows east of both lakes. While the flow will
start to back during the overnight hours...multiple bands of lake
snow will likely generate some accumulation over the majority of the
Southern Tier with a cap around 8k ft likely allowing moderate to
heavy snow within a single plume of producing problematic snow near
the Tug Hill.

On Thursday...a robust shortwave will dig across the Upper Mid West
and push a cold front to southern Ontario. This will help to
establish a short lived warm advective pattern within a backing
steering flow over our region. The on going lake snows will push
north towards Buffalo and Watertown while weakening as the cap
should drop to around 5k ft. Nevertheless...some accumulations can
probably be expected...especially over Jefferson county and northern
parts of Lewis county. The remainder of the region may see a stray
snow shower or flurry...but nothing more.

The aforementioned strong shortwave and sfc cold front will plow
across our forecast area Thursday night...likely before midnight.
This will result in some snow showers across the region that could
be briefly accompanied by some gusty winds and greatly reduced
visibilities. During the second half of the night...lake snows will
become re-established east of both lakes. Once again...a single
plume could target the Tug Hill region with the likelihood that the
band will be enhanced by an upstream connection to Lake Huron.
Multiple bands will be found east of Lake Erie.

As the base of the overlying mid level trough moves across the
region on Friday...a large sfc high will make its way across the
Upper Mid West. This will encourage the steering flow to veer more
to the west Northwest...likely pushing the lake snows a little
further south from the previous night.

The surface high will slowly ease across the Upper Ohio Valley and
Lower Great Lakes Friday night and Saturday...gradually lowering the
cap in the process which will bring an end to the lake snows
southeast of both lakes.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Widespread MVFR and higher elevation IFR will persist through
overnight as rain and continues. There is a isolated risk of
thunderstorms overnight as a strong jet streak approaches WNY.
As we approach the warm sector tomorrow, rain will end and
flight conditions will return to VFR across the region. These
conditions will continue through the end of the TAF cycle, with
the next chance of showers not until around 00Z for the western
TAF sites. Southerly winds will become a little gusty tomorrow
morning and afternoon with gusts up to 25 knots.

Outlook...

Sunday night...MVFR with scattered rain showers.
Monday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of rain and snow showers.
Tuesday through Thursday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow
showers.

&&

.MARINE...
East-southeast winds will increase tonight out ahead of low pressure
moving into the Great Lakes. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for
the southern shore of Lake Ontario.

Southerly winds will develop behind the passage of a warm front
Sunday then turn southwest and freshen by Sunday night. A cold
front will arrive on Monday with westerly winds becoming
northwest. Small craft conditions may develop as early as Sunday
night, but better chances probably will not occur until Monday
into Tuesday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for
     NYZ008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for
         LOZ042-043.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Thomas/TMA
NEAR TERM...HSK/Thomas/TMA
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...HSK/Thomas
MARINE...TMA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
322 AM EST Sun Dec 2 2018

NYZ001>005-010-011-013-014-021-030830-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Northern Erie-Genesee-
Livingston-Ontario-Allegany-
322 AM EST Sun Dec 2 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ012-019-020-085-030830-
Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
322 AM EST Sun Dec 2 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

A few periods of lake effect snow are expected Wednesday through
Thursday night east of Lake Erie. Accumulations are likely during
this time period, although it remains too early for finer details on
amounts or band placement.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ006>008-030830-
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
322 AM EST Sun Dec 2 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

A few periods of lake effect snow are expected Wednesday through
Thursday night east of Lake Ontario. Accumulations are likely during
this time period, although it remains too early for finer details on
amounts or band placement.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-030830-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
322 AM EST Sun Dec 2 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake
Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Hitchcock