Small Craft Advisory 100, NWS Buffalo, NY

761 
WHUS71 KBUF 131652
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1152 AM EST Tue Nov 13 2018

LEZ040-041-140100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0100.181113T2100Z-181114T2100Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
1152 AM EST Tue Nov 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...4 to 7 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ030-140100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0100.181113T2100Z-181114T0900Z/
Lower Niagara River-
1152 AM EST Tue Nov 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 25 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-140100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0100.181113T2100Z-181114T2100Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
1152 AM EST Tue Nov 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS...West to 30 knots.

* WAVES...5 to 8 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043>045-140100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0100.181113T2100Z-181115T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
1152 AM EST Tue Nov 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS...Northwest to 30 knots.

* WAVES...6 to 9 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

772 
WHUS71 KBUF 132323
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
623 PM EST Tue Nov 13 2018

LEZ040-041-140730-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0100.000000T0000Z-181114T2100Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
623 PM EST Tue Nov 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 6 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ030-140730-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0100.000000T0000Z-181114T0900Z/
Lower Niagara River-
623 PM EST Tue Nov 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-140730-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0100.000000T0000Z-181114T2100Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
623 PM EST Tue Nov 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS...West 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...6 to 9 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043>045-140730-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0100.000000T0000Z-181115T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
623 PM EST Tue Nov 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...6 to 9 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

937 
WHUS71 KBUF 140223
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
923 PM EST Tue Nov 13 2018

LEZ040-041-141030-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0100.000000T0000Z-181114T2100Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
923 PM EST Tue Nov 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 6 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ030-140900-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0100.000000T0000Z-181114T0900Z/
Lower Niagara River-
923 PM EST Tue Nov 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS...Northwest 15 to 20 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-141030-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0100.000000T0000Z-181114T2100Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
923 PM EST Tue Nov 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...6 to 9 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043>045-141030-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0100.000000T0000Z-181115T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
923 PM EST Tue Nov 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...6 to 9 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

889 
WHUS71 KBUF 140848
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
348 AM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

LOZ030-141000-
/O.EXP.KBUF.SC.Y.0100.000000T0000Z-181114T0900Z/
Lower Niagara River-
348 AM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 4 AM EST EARLY THIS
MORNING...

The Small Craft Advisory for the lower Niagara River will 
expire.

$$

LEZ040-041-141700-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0100.000000T0000Z-181114T2100Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
348 AM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 6 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-141700-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0100.000000T0000Z-181114T2100Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
348 AM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WINDS...West 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...4 to 7 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043>045-141700-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0100.000000T0000Z-181115T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
348 AM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...5 to 8 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

890 
WHUS71 KBUF 142030
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
330 PM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

LEZ040-041-LOZ042-142130-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0100.000000T0000Z-181114T2100Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
330 PM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has cancelled the Small
Craft Advisory.

$$

LOZ043>045-150300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0100.000000T0000Z-181115T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
330 PM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...Northwest 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 6 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

477 
WHUS71 KBUF 142336
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
636 PM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

LOZ045-150045-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0100.000000T0000Z-181115T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
636 PM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has cancelled the Small
Craft Advisory.

$$

LOZ043-044-150300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0100.000000T0000Z-181115T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
636 PM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...North 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 5 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

576 
WHUS71 KBUF 150232
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
932 PM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

LOZ043-044-150345-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0100.000000T0000Z-181115T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
932 PM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has cancelled the Small
Craft Advisory.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
105 AM EST Tue Nov 13 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A deepening storm system advancing northward along the Northeast
coastline will spread a period of mainly light snow across the
region through the morning hours. As cold air deepens behind this
storm system, a few bands of lake effect snow will form downwind of
both Great Lakes on a cold northwest flow. This northwest wind will
start Wednesday off cold, with temperatures only rising to around
the freezing mark during the afternoon.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Latest surface analysis shows an area of low pressure starting to
organize off the Carolina coastline this early morning. Regional
radars display plentiful virga across our region, with surface obs
showing only spotty areas of actual precipitation reaching the
ground.

As we progress through the overnight hours, precipitation will
increase in coverage area as an easterly flow ahead of the surface
low brings additional moisture across our region. Precipitation
should largely fall as snow, but a few pockets of rain will be
possible, especially across lower elevations and closer to the
lakes. Greatest snowfall accumulation through the overnight hours
will be near a tightening baroclinic boundary that will be draped
across CNY. Will have a few inches likely for the inland So. Tier
and up through a portion of the Finger Lakes and towards the Tug
Hill tonight, with the highest totals across higher terrain.
Elsewhere tonight light snow will likely total less than an inch.
Lows tonight will be around freezing, to just above freezing.

The fairly widespread rain/snow mix early Tuesday morning will then
taper off to scattered snow showers in most areas, with some rain
still mixing in through mid afternoon close to the lakes...as the
supporting storm system will exit up the New England coast. This
will effectively remove the H925-70 frontogenetic forcing from our
area...but while synoptic forcing will dramatically weaken...
deepening cold air will set the stage for lake effect to take over.

As we progress through the afternoon...H85 temps over the lakes will
tumble to -12c. Northwest flow will direct some initial lake effect
snow showers into the western Southern Tier off Lake Erie, and
southeast of Lake Ontario. Mesoscale model guidance such as the NMM,
ARW, and Canadian GEM suggest a multitude of squally snow showers
during the afternoon across much of the area from a combination of
some lake effect bands from Lake Huron and our local lakes, steep
low level lapse rates, and large scale forcing from the incoming mid
level trough. These brief bursts of snow showers may bring low
visibility and fresh coatings of slushy snow to many areas during
the afternoon. Surface temperatures will also begin to fall during
the afternoon, affording these snow showers a better opportunity of
sticking after 2-3PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Lake effect snow which begins to develop Tuesday afternoon/evening
continues to strengthen during the early overnight hours as cold air
continues to build into the region. This event will be short lived
as drier air and less favorable flows develop on Wednesday.
Temperatures will remain below normal this period...with highs
Wednesday remaining below freezing for much of the region.

Off Lake Erie...the northwest flow will produce multibanded lake
effect snows downwind of the lake with accumulations of a few inches
before the drier air starts building in with diminishing activity
Wednesday morning.

Off Lake Ontario...the longer fetch combined with upstream
connection will produce a moderate to heavier snowfall likely
targeting Wayne, Northern Cayuga and Oswego counties. Will continue
to highlight the potential for heavier snowfall -- half a foot or so
over a 24 hour period -- in the HWO with headlines still not out of
the question. As drier air builds in during the day Wednesday will
look for diminishing snows through the afternoon and evening
hours...with lingering snow showers into the early overnight hours
of Wednesday night.

While Thursday will start off dry across our region as lingering
surface-based ridging begrudgingly slides eastward and off the New
England coast...the fair weather will once again give way to
deteriorating conditions Thursday afternoon and especially Thursday
night as a another complex area of low pressure pushes northeastward
from the Southeastern states...and eventually evolves into yet
another deepening coastal low along the Mid-Atlantic coastline by
Friday morning. Plentiful moisture and lift attendant to this system
will spread increasing chances of precipitation into the area from
the south Thursday afternoon...with fairly widespread precipitation
then following for Thursday night...before diminishing from west to
east on Friday as the low departs into the Canadian Maritimes.
Thermal profiles continue to suggest that the atmospheric column
should be cold enough to allow for mainly snow with this event...
though marginal boundary layer temperatures will probably allow some
rain to mix in at the onset Thursday/Thursday evening and again on
Friday as the precip lightens and winds down. Otherwise...temperatures
through the latter half of the short term period will continue to
average solidly below normal...with lows in the mid 20s to lower
30s Thursday night sandwiched in between highs ranging through the
30s Thursday...and in the upper 30s to lower 40s on Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
In the wake of the late-week coastal system...broad upper level
troughing will once again dominate our weather through the long
term period. This will ensure a continuation of well below normal
temperatures through early next week...with daily highs averaging
close to 10 degrees below normal. At the same time...such an
environment will also lead to continued opportunities for lake
effect precipitation downwind of the lakes.

Digging a little more into the forecast details...a general west
to west-northwesterly flow will be in place across our region
through Friday night and early Saturday...before perhaps turning
a little more west-southwesterly to southwesterly on Saturday in
advance of an approaching surface trough. Meanwhile...850 mb temps
should drop off to the -3C to -6C range Friday night...before
remaining in this general range or perhaps warming a little on
Saturday out ahead of the aforementioned trough. While certainly
cold enough for a lake response...such temps aloft will likely
not be cold enough to support all snow...with boundary layer
temperatures the main determining factor for precipitation type.
With this in mind would expect more of a mix of rain and snow
Friday evening and again on Saturday when boundary layer temps
will be warmer...with snow more predominant during the second
half of Friday night. Meanwhile...precipitation should be much
more widely scattered outside of the main lake effect areas...
with mainly dry weather prevailing the majority of the time. As
for temps...we can expect lows in the lower to mid 30s Friday
night...followed by highs in the mid 30s to lower 40s on Saturday.

The surface trough then looks to cross our region Saturday night
along with a more general chance of snow showers...with a west-
northwesterly flow of much colder but also drier air in its wake
then supporting scattered lake effect snow showers southeast of
the lakes later Saturday night through Sunday. With 850 mb temps
falling to around -13C...Sunday will easily be the coldest day of
the period...with highs struggling to get above the upper 20s and
lower 30s areawide - readings that are much more typical of mid
to late January than November.

Surface-based ridging and drier air should build into the region
Sunday night...and this in concert with warming/subsidence aloft
should result in lingering lake effect snow showers weakening to
the southeast and east of the lakes. By Monday the medium range
guidance diverges markedly with the GFS/GEM suggesting the passage
of another trough...while the ECMWF keeps the area mainly dry.
Given the distant time frame...for now have elected to lean more
optimistic and follow the latter scenario...with a mainly dry and
somewhat milder day forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A storm system will advance northward up the Atlantic coastline the
first 12 hours of this TAF cycle, and bring a period of snow across
the region. A few pockets of rain will be possible across the lower
elevations. Within this snow visibilities will likely diminish to
around IFR, though ceiling heights will predominately remain MVFR or
VFR.

This afternoon cold air advection behind the departed area of light
snow will begin to form bands of lake effect snow to the southeast
of both lakes. Snow will largely fall between KROC and KSYR off Lake
Ontario. Off Lake Erie some bands of snow will likely diminish
flight conditions for KJHW, mainly after 00Z. These bands of lake
effect snow will continue off both lakes through the night, and be
strongest off Lake Ontario where an upstream connection to Georgian
Bay is likely.

Outlook...

Wednesday...Mainly VFR, but IFR southeast of both lakes in lake
snow.

Thursday...Mainly VFR.

Thursday night and Friday...MVFR/IFR possible in rain and/or wet
snow.

Saturday...Mainly VFR, but IFR possible east of both lakes in
lake snows.

&&

.MARINE...
A relatively weak surface pressure gradient over the Lower Great
Lakes this evening will tighten on Tuesday...as a developing storm
will intensify while tracking up the coast of New England. The
corresponding winds will freshen in the process...likely leading to
Small Craft Advisory conditions for all of the NY nearshore waters
by late Tuesday and certainly Tuesday night.

Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue Wednesday with
moderate northwesterlies. As high pressure builds across the Lower
Great Lakes on Wednesday night, winds and waves will gradually
subside from west to east.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for NYZ008-
     012-020-021.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Thomas
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock/RSH/Thomas
SHORT TERM...JJR/Levan
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...Hitchcock/RSH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
743 AM EST Mon Nov 12 2018

NYZ001>003-010-011-131245-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-
743 AM EST Mon Nov 12 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ012>014-019>021-085-131245-
Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
Southern Erie-
743 AM EST Mon Nov 12 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A storm system passing to the south tonight will spread mixed
precipitation across the region...during which time up to two inches
of wet snow could accumulate. As is typically the case...the greatest
snowfall should be found across the higher terrain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Fairly widespread snow on Tuesday could accumulate another two
inches. The snow could mix with rain at times through the midday
hours.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ004>006-131245-
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-
743 AM EST Mon Nov 12 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

A cold northwest flow will develop Tuesday afternoon through
Wednesday and bring accumulating lake effect snow to areas southeast
of Lake Ontario. While the snow band may meander some, there will be
potential for a moderate accumulation of snow this period.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ007-131245-
Jefferson-
743 AM EST Mon Nov 12 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

A storm system that will develop over the Mid Atlantic region then
strengthen along the coast will spread accumulating snow across the
county late tonight and Tuesday. Accumulations will generally range
from one to three inches...with the highest amounts expected over the
Tug Hill.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ008-131245-
Lewis-
743 AM EST Mon Nov 12 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-131245-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
743 AM EST Mon Nov 12 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake
Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf