Alert archive / New York / Heat Advisories in 2018

Heat Advisory 9, NWS Buffalo, NY

August 27, 201812 counties in New York

NWS Buffalo, NY issued this heat advisory at Aug 27, 2018, 3:44 AM EDT for 12 counties in New York. It took effect at Aug 28, 2018, 12:00 PM EDT. It was in force for 30 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Aug 27, 2018, 3:44 AM EDT (07:44 UTC)
In effect from
Aug 28, 2018, 12:00 PM EDT
Expired
Aug 29, 2018, 6:23 PM EDT
In force
30 hr
Issued by
NWS Buffalo, NY

Counties Cayuga County, NY, Erie County, NY, Genesee County, NY, Jefferson County, NY, Lewis County, NY, Livingston County, NY, Monroe County, NY, Niagara County, NY, Ontario County, NY, Orleans County, NY, Oswego County, NY, Wayne County, NY

The radar

The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 118 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 07:45 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 00:00Z, 7.7 hours before the alert went out and 116 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 00:00Z on 2018-08-27Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 358 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 00:00Z on 2018-08-27The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 69 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
358 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-121 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
939 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
24 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
69 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
136 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
1.6

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

897 
WWUS71 KBUF 270744
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
344 AM EDT Mon Aug 27 2018

NYZ001-007-008-010-011-271545-
/O.NEW.KBUF.HT.Y.0009.180828T1600Z-180829T0000Z/
Niagara-Jefferson-Lewis-Northern Erie-Genesee-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Watertown, Lowville, 
Buffalo, and Batavia
344 AM EDT Mon Aug 27 2018

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 8 PM EDT 
TUESDAY...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Heat
Advisory, which is in effect from noon Tuesday to 8 PM EDT 
Tuesday.

* LOCATIONS...Niagara, Jefferson, Lewis, Northern Erie, and 
  Genesee counties.

* TIMING...From late Tuesday morning through early Tuesday 
  evening.

* HEAT INDEX VALUES...In the mid to upper 90s.

* IMPACTS...The heat and humidity may cause heat stress during 
  outdoor exertion or extended exposure.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Heat Advisory means that a period of hot temperatures
is expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high
humidity will combine to create a situation in which heat
illnesses are possible. Drink plenty of fluids...stay in an
air-conditioned room...stay out of the sun...and check in
on relatives and neighbors.

Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside.
when possible...reschedule strenuous activities to early
morning or evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat
exhaustion and heat stroke. Wear light weight and loose
fitting clothing when possible and drink plenty of water.

&&

$$

NYZ002>005-013-014-271545-
/O.EXT.KBUF.HT.Y.0008.180827T1600Z-180829T0000Z/
Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Livingston-Ontario-
Including the cities of Medina, Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven, 
Geneseo, and Canandaigua
344 AM EDT Mon Aug 27 2018

...HEAT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT
TUESDAY...

* LOCATIONS...Orleans, Monroe, Wayne, Northern Cayuga, 
  Livingston, and Ontario counties.

* TIMING...From late this morning through early Tuesday evening.

* HEAT INDEX VALUES...Could exceed 100...particularly on Tuesday.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Heat Advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is
expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity
will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are
possible. Drink plenty of fluids...stay in an air-conditioned
room...stay out of the sun...and check in on relatives and
neighbors.

To reduce risk during outdoor work...the occupational safety and
health administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks
in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by
heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke
is an emergency - call 9 1 1.

&&

$$
14 follow-up statements
420 
WWUS71 KBUF 270826
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
426 AM EDT Mon Aug 27 2018

NYZ006-271630-
/O.EXA.KBUF.HT.Y.0009.180828T1600Z-180829T0000Z/
Oswego-
Including the city of Oswego
426 AM EDT Mon Aug 27 2018

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 8 PM EDT 
TUESDAY...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Heat
Advisory, which is in effect from noon Tuesday to 8 PM EDT 
Tuesday.

* LOCATIONS...Oswego county.

* TIMING...From late Tuesday morning through early Tuesday 
  evening.

* HEAT INDEX VALUES...As high as 100.

* IMPACTS...The heat and humidity may cause heat stress during 
  outdoor exertion or extended exposure.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Heat Advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is
expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity
will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are
possible. Drink plenty of fluids...stay in an air-conditioned
room...stay out of the sun...and check in on relatives and
neighbors.

&&

$$

NYZ002>005-013-014-271630-
/O.CON.KBUF.HT.Y.0008.180827T1600Z-180829T0000Z/
Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Livingston-Ontario-
Including the cities of Medina, Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven, 
Geneseo, and Canandaigua
426 AM EDT Mon Aug 27 2018

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT
TUESDAY...

* LOCATIONS...Orleans, Monroe, Wayne, Northern Cayuga, 
  Livingston, and Ontario counties.

* TIMING...From late this morning through early Tuesday evening.

* HEAT INDEX VALUES...Could exceed 100...particularly on Tuesday. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Heat Advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is
expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity
will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are
possible. Drink plenty of fluids...stay in an air-conditioned
room...stay out of the sun...and check in on relatives and
neighbors.

To reduce risk during outdoor work...the occupational safety and
health administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks
in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by
heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke
is an emergency - call 9 1 1.

&&

$$

NYZ001-007-008-010-011-271630-
/O.CON.KBUF.HT.Y.0009.180828T1600Z-180829T0000Z/
Niagara-Jefferson-Lewis-Northern Erie-Genesee-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Watertown, Lowville, 
Buffalo, and Batavia
426 AM EDT Mon Aug 27 2018

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 8 PM EDT
TUESDAY...

* LOCATIONS...Niagara, Jefferson, Lewis, Northern Erie, and 
  Genesee counties.

* TIMING...From late Tuesday morning through early Tuesday 
  evening.

* HEAT INDEX VALUES...In the mid to upper 90s.

* IMPACTS...The heat and humidity may cause heat stress during 
  outdoor exertion or extended exposure.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Heat Advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is
expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity
will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are
possible. Drink plenty of fluids...stay in an air-conditioned
room...stay out of the sun...and check in on relatives and
neighbors.

&&

$$
560 
WWUS71 KBUF 271611
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1211 PM EDT Mon Aug 27 2018

NYZ002>005-013-014-280015-
/O.CON.KBUF.HT.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-180829T0000Z/
Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Livingston-Ontario-
Including the cities of Medina, Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven, 
Geneseo, and Canandaigua
1211 PM EDT Mon Aug 27 2018

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY...

* LOCATIONS...Orleans, Monroe, Wayne, Northern Cayuga, 
  Livingston, and Ontario counties.

* TIMING...Through early Tuesday evening.

* HEAT INDEX VALUES...Could exceed 100...particularly on Tuesday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Heat Advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is
expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity
will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are
possible. Drink plenty of fluids...stay in an air-conditioned
room...stay out of the sun...and check in on relatives and
neighbors.

To reduce risk during outdoor work...the occupational safety and
health administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks
in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by
heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke
is an emergency - call 9 1 1.

&&

$$

NYZ001-006>008-010-011-280015-
/O.CON.KBUF.HT.Y.0009.180828T1600Z-180829T0000Z/
Niagara-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-Northern Erie-Genesee-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Oswego, Watertown, 
Lowville, Buffalo, and Batavia
1211 PM EDT Mon Aug 27 2018

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 8 PM EDT 
TUESDAY...

* LOCATIONS...Niagara, Jefferson, Lewis, Northern Erie, and 
  Genesee counties.

* TIMING...From late Tuesday morning through early Tuesday 
  evening.

* HEAT INDEX VALUES...In the mid to upper 90s.

* IMPACTS...The heat and humidity may cause heat stress during 
  outdoor exertion or extended exposure.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Heat Advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is
expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity
will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are
possible. Drink plenty of fluids...stay in an air-conditioned
room...stay out of the sun...and check in on relatives and
neighbors.

&&

$$
154 
WWUS71 KBUF 272258
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
658 PM EDT Mon Aug 27 2018

NYZ002>005-013-014-280700-
/O.CAN.KBUF.HT.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-180829T0000Z/
/O.EXA.KBUF.HT.Y.0009.180828T1600Z-180829T0000Z/
Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Livingston-Ontario-
Including the cities of Medina, Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven, 
Geneseo, and Canandaigua
658 PM EDT Mon Aug 27 2018

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Heat
Advisory, which is in effect from noon to 8 PM EDT Tuesday.

* LOCATIONS...Orleans, Monroe, Wayne, Northern Cayuga, 
  Livingston, and Ontario counties.

* TIMING...From late Tuesday morning through early Tuesday 
  evening.

* HEAT INDEX VALUES...As high as 100.

* IMPACTS...The heat and humidity may cause heat stress during 
  outdoor exertion or extended exposure.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Heat Advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is
expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity
will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are
possible. Drink plenty of fluids...stay in an air-conditioned
room...stay out of the sun...and check in on relatives and
neighbors.

To reduce risk during outdoor work...the occupational safety and
health administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks
in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by
heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke
is an emergency - call 9 1 1.

&&

$$

NYZ001-006>008-010-011-280700-
/O.CON.KBUF.HT.Y.0009.180828T1600Z-180829T0000Z/
Niagara-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-Northern Erie-Genesee-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Oswego, Watertown, 
Lowville, Buffalo, and Batavia
658 PM EDT Mon Aug 27 2018

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT
TUESDAY...

* LOCATIONS...Niagara, Jefferson, Lewis, Northern Erie, and 
  Genesee counties.

* TIMING...From late Tuesday morning through early Tuesday 
  evening.

* HEAT INDEX VALUES...In the upper 90s.

* IMPACTS...The heat and humidity may cause heat stress during 
  outdoor exertion or extended exposure.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Heat Advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is
expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity
will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are
possible. Drink plenty of fluids...stay in an air-conditioned
room...stay out of the sun...and check in on relatives and
neighbors.

To reduce risk during outdoor work...the occupational safety and
health administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks
in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by
heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke
is an emergency - call 9 1 1.

&&

$$
980 
WWUS71 KBUF 280146
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
946 PM EDT Mon Aug 27 2018

NYZ002>005-013-014-281000-
/O.CON.KBUF.HT.Y.0009.180828T1600Z-180829T0000Z/
Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Livingston-Ontario-
Including the cities of Medina, Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven, 
Geneseo, and Canandaigua
946 PM EDT Mon Aug 27 2018

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT
TUESDAY...

* LOCATIONS...Orleans, Monroe, Wayne, Northern Cayuga, 
  Livingston, and Ontario counties.

* TIMING...Tuesday afternoon through early Tuesday evening.

* HEAT INDEX VALUES...As high as 100.

* IMPACTS...The heat and humidity may cause heat stress during 
  outdoor exertion or extended exposure.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Heat Advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is
expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity
will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are
possible. Drink plenty of fluids...stay in an air-conditioned
room...stay out of the sun...and check in on relatives and
neighbors.

To reduce risk during outdoor work...the occupational safety and
health administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks
in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by
heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke
is an emergency - call 9 1 1.

&&

$$

NYZ001-006>008-010-011-281000-
/O.CON.KBUF.HT.Y.0009.180828T1600Z-180829T0000Z/
Niagara-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-Northern Erie-Genesee-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Oswego, Watertown, 
Lowville, Buffalo, and Batavia
946 PM EDT Mon Aug 27 2018

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT
TUESDAY...

* LOCATIONS...Niagara, Jefferson, Lewis, Northern Erie, and 
  Genesee counties.

* TIMING...Tuesday afternoon through early Tuesday evening.

* HEAT INDEX VALUES...In the upper 90s.

* IMPACTS...The heat and humidity may cause heat stress during 
  outdoor exertion or extended exposure.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Heat Advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is
expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity
will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are
possible. Drink plenty of fluids...stay in an air-conditioned
room...stay out of the sun...and check in on relatives and
neighbors.

To reduce risk during outdoor work...the occupational safety and
health administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks
in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by
heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke
is an emergency - call 9 1 1.

&&

$$
332 
WWUS71 KBUF 280754
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
354 AM EDT Tue Aug 28 2018

NYZ002>005-013-014-281600-
/O.CON.KBUF.HT.Y.0009.180828T1600Z-180829T0000Z/
Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Livingston-Ontario-
Including the cities of Medina, Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven, 
Geneseo, and Canandaigua
354 AM EDT Tue Aug 28 2018

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT
THIS EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...Orleans, Monroe, Wayne, Northern Cayuga, 
  Livingston, and Ontario counties.

* TIMING...From late this morning through early this evening.

* HEAT INDEX VALUES...As high as 100.

* IMPACTS...The heat and humidity may cause heat stress during 
  outdoor exertion or extended exposure.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Heat Advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is
expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity
will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are
possible. Drink plenty of fluids...stay in an air-conditioned
room...stay out of the sun...and check in on relatives and
neighbors.

To reduce risk during outdoor work...the occupational safety and
health administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks
in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by
heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke
is an emergency - call 9 1 1.

&&

$$

NYZ001-006>008-010-011-281600-
/O.CON.KBUF.HT.Y.0009.180828T1600Z-180829T0000Z/
Niagara-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-Northern Erie-Genesee-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Oswego, Watertown, 
Lowville, Buffalo, and Batavia
354 AM EDT Tue Aug 28 2018

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT
THIS EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...Niagara, Jefferson, Lewis, Northern Erie, and 
  Genesee counties.

* TIMING...From late this morning through early this evening.

* HEAT INDEX VALUES...In the upper 90s.

* IMPACTS...The heat and humidity may cause heat stress during 
  outdoor exertion or extended exposure.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Heat Advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is
expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity
will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are
possible. Drink plenty of fluids...stay in an air-conditioned
room...stay out of the sun...and check in on relatives and
neighbors.

To reduce risk during outdoor work...the occupational safety and
health administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks
in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by
heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke
is an emergency - call 9 1 1.

&&

$$

JJR
692 
WWUS71 KBUF 281532
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1132 AM EDT Tue Aug 28 2018

NYZ002>005-013-014-282345-
/O.CON.KBUF.HT.Y.0009.180828T1600Z-180829T0000Z/
Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Livingston-Ontario-
Including the cities of Medina, Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven, 
Geneseo, and Canandaigua
1132 AM EDT Tue Aug 28 2018

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...Orleans, Monroe, Wayne, Northern Cayuga, 
  Livingston, and Ontario counties.

* TIMING...From this afternoon through early this evening.

* HEAT INDEX VALUES...As high as 100.

* IMPACTS...The heat and humidity may cause heat stress during 
  outdoor exertion or extended exposure.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Heat Advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is
expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity
will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are
possible. Drink plenty of fluids...stay in an air-conditioned
room...stay out of the sun...and check in on relatives and
neighbors.

To reduce risk during outdoor work...the occupational safety and
health administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks
in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by
heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke
is an emergency - call 9 1 1.

&&

$$

NYZ001-006>008-010-011-282345-
/O.CON.KBUF.HT.Y.0009.180828T1600Z-180829T0000Z/
Niagara-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-Northern Erie-Genesee-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Oswego, Watertown, 
Lowville, Buffalo, and Batavia
1132 AM EDT Tue Aug 28 2018

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...Niagara, Jefferson, Lewis, Northern Erie, and 
  Genesee counties.

* TIMING...From this afternoon through early this evening.

* HEAT INDEX VALUES...In the upper 90s.

* IMPACTS...The heat and humidity may cause heat stress during 
  outdoor exertion or extended exposure.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Heat Advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is
expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity
will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are
possible. Drink plenty of fluids...stay in an air-conditioned
room...stay out of the sun...and check in on relatives and
neighbors.

To reduce risk during outdoor work...the occupational safety and
health administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks
in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by
heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke
is an emergency - call 9 1 1.

&&

$$
401 
WWUS71 KBUF 281718
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
118 PM EDT Tue Aug 28 2018

NYZ003>005-013-014-290130-
/O.EXT.KBUF.HT.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-180830T0000Z/
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Livingston-Ontario-
Including the cities of Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven, Geneseo, 
and Canandaigua
118 PM EDT Tue Aug 28 2018

...HEAT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

* LOCATIONS...The Genesee Valley and northern Finger Lakes.

* TIMING...Through early Wednesday evening.

* HEAT INDEX VALUES...As high as 100 this afternoon and as high as
  the upper 90s Wednesday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...The heat and humidity may cause heat stress during 
  outdoor exertion or extended exposure.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Heat Advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is
expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity
will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are
possible. Drink plenty of fluids...stay in an air-conditioned
room...stay out of the sun...and check in on relatives and
neighbors.

To reduce risk during outdoor work...the occupational safety and
health administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks
in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by
heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke
is an emergency - call 9 1 1.

&&

$$

NYZ006-290130-
/O.EXT.KBUF.HT.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-180830T0000Z/
Oswego-
Including the city of Oswego
118 PM EDT Tue Aug 28 2018

...HEAT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

* LOCATIONS...Oswego county.

* TIMING...Through early Wednesday evening.

* HEAT INDEX VALUES...In the upper 90s, particularly in the
  afternoon hours today and again, Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...The heat and humidity may cause heat stress during 
  outdoor exertion or extended exposure.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Heat Advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is
expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity
will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are
possible. Drink plenty of fluids...stay in an air-conditioned
room...stay out of the sun...and check in on relatives and
neighbors.

To reduce risk during outdoor work...the occupational safety and
health administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks
in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by
heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke
is an emergency - call 9 1 1.

&&

$$

NYZ001-007-008-010-011-290000-
/O.CON.KBUF.HT.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-180829T0000Z/
Niagara-Jefferson-Lewis-Northern Erie-Genesee-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Watertown, Lowville, 
Buffalo, and Batavia
118 PM EDT Tue Aug 28 2018

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...Niagara, Jefferson, Lewis, Northern Erie, and 
  Genesee counties.

* TIMING...Through early this evening.

* HEAT INDEX VALUES...In the upper 90s.

* IMPACTS...The heat and humidity may cause heat stress during 
  outdoor exertion or extended exposure.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Heat Advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is
expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity
will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are
possible. Drink plenty of fluids...stay in an air-conditioned
room...stay out of the sun...and check in on relatives and
neighbors.

To reduce risk during outdoor work...the occupational safety and
health administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks
in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by
heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke
is an emergency - call 9 1 1.

&&

$$

NYZ002-290000-
/O.CON.KBUF.HT.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-180829T0000Z/
Orleans-
Including the city of Medina
118 PM EDT Tue Aug 28 2018

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...Orleans county.

* TIMING...Through early this evening.

* HEAT INDEX VALUES...In the upper 90s.

* IMPACTS...The heat and humidity may cause heat stress during 
  outdoor exertion or extended exposure.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Heat Advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is
expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity
will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are
possible. Drink plenty of fluids...stay in an air-conditioned
room...stay out of the sun...and check in on relatives and
neighbors.

To reduce risk during outdoor work...the occupational safety and
health administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks
in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by
heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke
is an emergency - call 9 1 1.

&&

$$
617 
WWUS71 KBUF 282019
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
419 PM EDT Tue Aug 28 2018

NYZ010-282130-
/O.CAN.KBUF.HT.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-180829T0000Z/
Northern Erie-
Including the city of Buffalo
419 PM EDT Tue Aug 28 2018

...HEAT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has cancelled the Heat
Advisory.

Gusty southwest winds off Lake Erie will keep the heat index below
advisory criteria through this evening.

$$

NYZ003>006-013-014-290430-
/O.CON.KBUF.HT.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-180830T0000Z/
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Livingston-Ontario-
Including the cities of Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven, Oswego, 
Geneseo, and Canandaigua
419 PM EDT Tue Aug 28 2018

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

* LOCATIONS...Monroe, Wayne, Northern Cayuga, Oswego, Livingston,
   and Ontario counties.

* TIMING...Through early Wednesday evening. Highest heat index
  values through early this evening and again from late morning
  through early evening Wednesday.

* HEAT INDEX VALUES...In the mid to upper 90s.

* IMPACTS...The heat and humidity may cause heat stress during 
  outdoor exertion or extended exposure.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Heat Advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is
expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity
will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are
possible. Drink plenty of fluids...stay in an air-conditioned
room...stay out of the sun...and check in on relatives and
neighbors.

To reduce risk during outdoor work...the occupational safety and
health administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks
in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by
heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke
is an emergency - call 9 1 1.

&&

$$

NYZ001-002-011-290000-
/O.CON.KBUF.HT.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-180829T0000Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Genesee-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, and Batavia
419 PM EDT Tue Aug 28 2018

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...Niagara, Orleans, and Genesee counties.

* TIMING...Through early this evening.

* HEAT INDEX VALUES...In the mid to upper 90s.

* IMPACTS...The heat and humidity may cause heat stress during 
  outdoor exertion or extended exposure.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Heat Advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is
expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity
will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are
possible. Drink plenty of fluids...stay in an air-conditioned
room...stay out of the sun...and check in on relatives and
neighbors.

To reduce risk during outdoor work...the occupational safety and
health administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks
in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by
heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke
is an emergency - call 9 1 1.

&&

$$

NYZ007-008-290000-
/O.CON.KBUF.HT.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-180829T0000Z/
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
419 PM EDT Tue Aug 28 2018

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...Jefferson and Lewis counties.

* TIMING...Through early this evening.

* HEAT INDEX VALUES...In the mid 90s.

* IMPACTS...The heat and humidity may cause heat stress during 
  outdoor exertion or extended exposure.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Heat Advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is
expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity
will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are
possible. Drink plenty of fluids...stay in an air-conditioned
room...stay out of the sun...and check in on relatives and
neighbors.

To reduce risk during outdoor work...the occupational safety and
health administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks
in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by
heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke
is an emergency - call 9 1 1.

&&

$$

Hitchcock
229 
WWUS71 KBUF 282345
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
745 PM EDT Tue Aug 28 2018

NYZ001-002-007-008-011-290045-
/O.CAN.KBUF.HT.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-180829T0000Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Jefferson-Lewis-Genesee-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Watertown, 
Lowville, and Batavia
745 PM EDT Tue Aug 28 2018

...HEAT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has cancelled the Heat
Advisory.

Temperatures will continue to slowly cool through this evening.

$$

NYZ003>006-013-014-290745-
/O.CON.KBUF.HT.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-180830T0000Z/
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Livingston-Ontario-
Including the cities of Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven, Oswego, 
Geneseo, and Canandaigua
745 PM EDT Tue Aug 28 2018

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

* LOCATIONS...Monroe, Wayne, Northern Cayuga, Oswego, Livingston,
   and Ontario counties.

* TIMING...Through early Wednesday evening. Highest heat index
  values from late morning through late afternoon Wednesday.

* HEAT INDEX VALUES...In the mid to upper 90s.

* IMPACTS...The heat and humidity may cause heat stress during 
  outdoor exertion or extended exposure.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Heat Advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is
expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity
will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are
possible. Drink plenty of fluids...stay in an air-conditioned
room...stay out of the sun...and check in on relatives and
neighbors.

To reduce risk during outdoor work...the occupational safety and
health administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks
in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by
heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke
is an emergency - call 9 1 1.

&&

$$

Hitchcock
342 
WWUS71 KBUF 290229
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1029 PM EDT Tue Aug 28 2018

NYZ003>006-013-014-291030-
/O.CON.KBUF.HT.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-180830T0000Z/
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Livingston-Ontario-
Including the cities of Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven, Oswego, 
Geneseo, and Canandaigua
1029 PM EDT Tue Aug 28 2018

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

* LOCATIONS...Monroe, Wayne, Northern Cayuga, Oswego, Livingston,
   and Ontario counties.

* TIMING...Through early Wednesday evening. Highest heat index 
  values from late morning through late afternoon Wednesday.

* HEAT INDEX VALUES...In the mid to upper 90s.

* IMPACTS...The heat and humidity may cause heat stress during 
  outdoor exertion or extended exposure.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Heat Advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is
expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity
will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are
possible. Drink plenty of fluids...stay in an air-conditioned
room...stay out of the sun...and check in on relatives and
neighbors.

To reduce risk during outdoor work...the occupational safety and
health administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks
in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by
heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke
is an emergency - call 9 1 1.

&&

$$

Hitchcock
528 
WWUS71 KBUF 290822
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
422 AM EDT Wed Aug 29 2018

NYZ003>006-013-014-291630-
/O.CON.KBUF.HT.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-180830T0000Z/
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Livingston-Ontario-
Including the cities of Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven, Oswego, 
Geneseo, and Canandaigua
422 AM EDT Wed Aug 29 2018

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...Monroe, Wayne, Northern Cayuga, Oswego, Livingston,
   and Ontario counties.

* TIMING...Through early this evening. Highest heat index values
  from late morning through late afternoon.

* HEAT INDEX VALUES...In the mid to upper 90s.

* IMPACTS...The heat and humidity may cause heat stress during 
  outdoor exertion or extended exposure.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Heat Advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is
expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity
will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are
possible. Drink plenty of fluids...stay in an air-conditioned
room...stay out of the sun...and check in on relatives and
neighbors.

To reduce risk during outdoor work...the occupational safety and
health administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks
in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by
heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke
is an emergency - call 9 1 1.

&&

$$
893 
WWUS71 KBUF 291101
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
701 AM EDT Wed Aug 29 2018

NYZ003>006-013-014-291915-
/O.CON.KBUF.HT.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-180830T0000Z/
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Livingston-Ontario-
Including the cities of Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven, Oswego, 
Geneseo, and Canandaigua
701 AM EDT Wed Aug 29 2018

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...Monroe, Wayne, Northern Cayuga, Oswego, Livingston,
   and Ontario counties.

* TIMING...Through early this evening. Highest heat index values 
  from late morning through late afternoon.

* HEAT INDEX VALUES...In the mid to upper 90s.

* IMPACTS...The heat and humidity may cause heat stress during 
  outdoor exertion or extended exposure.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Heat Advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is
expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity
will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are
possible. Drink plenty of fluids...stay in an air-conditioned
room...stay out of the sun...and check in on relatives and
neighbors.

To reduce risk during outdoor work...the occupational safety and
health administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks
in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by
heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke
is an emergency - call 9 1 1.

&&

$$
681 
WWUS71 KBUF 291635
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1235 PM EDT Wed Aug 29 2018

NYZ007-300000-
/O.EXA.KBUF.HT.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-180830T0000Z/
Jefferson-
Including the city of Watertown
1235 PM EDT Wed Aug 29 2018

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Heat
Advisory, which is in effect until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* LOCATIONS...Jefferson county.

* TIMING...Through early this evening. Highest heat index values
  this afternoon.

* HEAT INDEX VALUES...In the upper 90s.

* IMPACTS...The heat and humidity may cause heat stress during 
  outdoor exertion or extended exposure.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Heat Advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is
expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity
will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are
possible. Drink plenty of fluids...stay in an air-conditioned
room...stay out of the sun...and check in on relatives and
neighbors.

To reduce risk during outdoor work...the occupational safety and
health administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks
in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by
heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke
is an emergency - call 9 1 1.

&&

$$

NYZ003>006-013-014-300000-
/O.CON.KBUF.HT.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-180830T0000Z/
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Livingston-Ontario-
Including the cities of Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven, Oswego, 
Geneseo, and Canandaigua
1235 PM EDT Wed Aug 29 2018

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...Monroe, Wayne, Northern Cayuga, Oswego, Livingston,
   and Ontario counties.

* TIMING...Through early this evening. Highest heat index values
  this afternoon.

* HEAT INDEX VALUES...In the upper 90s.

* IMPACTS...The heat and humidity may cause heat stress during 
  outdoor exertion or extended exposure.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Heat Advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is
expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity
will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are
possible. Drink plenty of fluids...stay in an air-conditioned
room...stay out of the sun...and check in on relatives and
neighbors.

To reduce risk during outdoor work...the occupational safety and
health administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks
in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by
heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke
is an emergency - call 9 1 1.

&&

$$
615 
WWUS71 KBUF 292223
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
623 PM EDT Wed Aug 29 2018

NYZ003>007-013-014-292330-
/O.CAN.KBUF.HT.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-180830T0000Z/
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Livingston-Ontario-
Including the cities of Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven, Oswego, 
Watertown, Geneseo, and Canandaigua
623 PM EDT Wed Aug 29 2018

...HEAT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has cancelled the Heat
Advisory.

Temperatures will continue to cool this evening.

$$

Hitchcock

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this heat advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this heat advisory went out at Aug 27, 3:40 AM EDT, 4 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 27, 3:40 AM EDT, 4 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
340 AM EDT Mon Aug 27 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
The first half of this week will feature midsummertime heat and
humidity...which will lead to heat indices reaching oppressive to
dangerous levels each day through Wednesday. Meanwhile conditions
will remain mainly dry...with just some isolated to widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms possible through the first half of
Wednesday. Later Wednesday and Wednesday night a strong cold front
will push through the region along with more numerous showers and
thunderstorms...with high pressure and much cooler and drier air
then building across the region in its wake Thursday and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The core of stout upper level ridging will remain nearly stationary
over the Tennessee Valley and Carolinas today...while a slowly
dampening mid/upper-level shortwave responsible for the nocturnal
convection across the Central Great Lakes tracks eastward around its
northern periphery. While this feature will be slowly weakening and
should largely pass by to our northwest with the bulk of its forcing
consequently affecting Southern Ontario...its southern tail still
looks to clip our region as it passes by. In tandem with increasing
diurnal heating/destabilization and the possible development of weak
lake breeze boundaries...this passing feature may help to touch off
some isolated to scattered showers as it pushes through...for which
a mix of slight chance to lower-end chance PoPs remains in play. The
greatest overall potential for any convection will initially lie across
far western New York this morning...before shifting northeastward
across portions of the Genesee Valley/Finger Lakes and eventually
into the North Country during the course of this afternoon. With
precipitable water values climbing into the one and a half to two
inch range...any storms that form will have the potential to produce
locally heavy downpours.

All the above said...the bigger story will be the well-advertised
heat and humidity...which will lead to increasingly oppressive
conditions as we work through the day. More specifically...850 mb
temps in the upper teens Celsius should allow for afternoon highs to
reach into the mid to upper 80s in most areas...and this coupled with
sultry surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s should yield
maximum apparent temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s in many
areas. The worst overall conditions will be found across portions of
the Lower Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes...where a bit more sunshine
and consequently slightly higher max temperatures should yield apparent
temperatures of around 95F...for which a Heat Advisory remains in
effect.

Tonight the shortwave impulse will slide eastward across Southern
Ontario/Northern New York and bring the risk for some additional
widely scattered to scattered convection to the Eastern Lake Ontario
Region and Saint Lawrence Valley through at least the early overnight
hours...before finally exiting eastward into Quebec and New England
late. In its wake the upper level ridge will slowly amplify northward
over the rest of our region...with attendant subsidence and strengthening
mid-level capping promoting mainly dry weather. Otherwise it will be a
downright sultry night...with a decent southwesterly low-level flow
and our very warm and humid airmass keeping dewpoints up in the upper
60s and lower 70s...and nighttime lows from falling much below the
lower to mid 70s in most areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
...Oppressively High Heat Index Values through this Period...

An anomalously strong +595dm sub tropical ridge will be staunchly
entrenched along the Mid Atlantic coast during this period. While
these features are not uncommon during the summer...they are not
usually this strong or persistent by the end of August. In fact...
heights of this magnitude across the Mid Atlantic region for this
time of year have a return interval of once every 10 to 20 years.
The problem with these stubborn 'fair' weather systems is that they
can circulate tropical like conditions into a region...that in some
cases...can lead to excessive heat and/or oppressive levels of
humidity. It will be the combination of the two that will be our
concern as heat index (apparent temps) values will exceed 95 in many
areas during this period...including the bulk of the lake plains and
in many of the valleys. This will undoubtably lead to a prolonged
period where heat advisories will be required. Those that are
already in place will likely be extended...with some counties being
added to the current list.

Unfortunately...these prolonged stretches of oppressive heat and
humidity are often brought to an end by a cold front bearing strong
to severe thunderstorms. This will be a separate threat that parts
of the region may have to contend with as a cold front plows across
our region late Wednesday or Wednesday night. More on this in a
moment.

As for the day to day details...this very sultry period will begin
with the +595dm H5 ridge centered over Virginia. The northern
periphery of this ridge...as suggested by winds of only 30 kts at
25k ft...will be north of our forecast area. This will guarantee
that any convectively enhanced shortwaves should pass well to our
north...which just so happens to be where a stalled frontal boundary
will be in place. A wealth of dry air...the presence of a 2 deg cap
and a ton of subsidence under the ridge will also suppress any home
grown convection. This will leave sun filled skies over our forecast
area...which when coupled with H85 temps near 20c within a well
mixed environment will promote widespread temps near 90f. For sites
between ROC and Oswego County (as well as in the Genesee Valley)...
max temps could actually climb closer to 95. When combined with dew
points in the low to mid 70s...we can anticipate heat index values
to range from around 90 across the higher terrain to near 100 across
a large stretch of the lake plains between IAG and SYR. Again...this
will require an expanded area for heat advisories. While winds aloft
will be relatively weak...stronger winds below 10k ft will not only
assure a well mixed boundary layer for maximum adiabatic warming...
but will set the stage for gusty southwest winds across the majority
of the region. This will especially be the case downwind from Lake
Erie where the southwest flow could generate gusts over 30 mph.
While this keep temps down a bit in the immediate BUF metro area...
heat advisory conditions should still be met further inland away
from the lake. If you're wondering about record high temperatures...
BUF (92 in 1952) and ART (90 in 1973) will stand the highest chance
for threatening these. A more detailed list of the records can be
found in the climate section below.

Tuesday night will then be another very sultry night...as the
uncomfortably high dew points will prevent many areas from cooling
below the mid 70s. These readings will be 15 to 20 deg f above
typical late August values.

Along with the continued promise for excessive heat and humidity for
parts of the region on Wednesday...there will be the threat for
severe convection. The core of the impressive sub tropical ridge
will move offshore and allow for nominal height falls across the
Lower Great Lakes...while a strong...pattern changing cold front
will stretch from Lake Huron to the Ottawa Valley. This is the point
where you may want to hedge your bets for the next 12-18 hour
period. There has been a great deal of inconsistency between the
various guidance packages as to the progress of the front during the
afternoon and evening. Without getting into the nuances of each
model...there is a spread of more than 12 hours for when the front
is forecast to move through our forecast area. Given the importance
of the diurnal timing and subsequent instability during the time of
fropa...confidence will be lower than normal as to the extent and
strength of the ensuing convection. Worst case scenario is that the
front will make its way across Lake Ontario late Wednesday or
Wednesday evening when instability will be at its greatest over our
region. SBCAPEs should be able to reach at least 1500-2000 j/kg over
the region...with higher values possible over the Finger Lakes and
Southern Tier. Given the 'fat' CAPE profiles and forecast bulk shear
values averaging 35 knots...the environment would be favorable for
damaging wind gusts and large hail. Across the North Country...shear
values will be even greater with 0-1km helicity near 75 m2/s2 and an
LCL under 2500 ft. This would favor QLCS and possible spin ups...but
its way too early to get carried away with these early signals.
Since the 00z guidance has come into a little better agreement...
will add some enhanced wording for the convection into the package.
The speed of the front will also have a big impact on the extent of
the oppressive heat and humidity on Wednesday. The most likely
scenario is that heat index values would once again reach advisory
levels from ROC to the Eastern Lake Ontario region... with slightly
less oppressive levels found back across the far western counties.

As we work our way through Wednesday night...model CONSENSUS is that
the cold front will be slowly pushing south across our region. While
the greatest threat for severe weather would come during the first
half of the night...weakening instability and PWAT values close to 2
inches within a warm sultry airmass would become more favorable for
localized torrential rains. Something that will have to be closely
monitored will be the potential for waves along the front to
significantly slow its southward progression. This is being show
cased by about a quarter of the medium range ensembles...including
the operational NAM which seems to be an extreme case. The result in
this scenario would be a greatly heightened threat for significant
rains. Finally...will have to raise Wednesday night mins several
degrees to account for the consensus for a slower FROPA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The slower passage of a cold front will mean some showers may linger
into the day Thursday, especially across southern and eastern
portions of cwa. Expect mainly dry conditions and a gradual clearing
trend Thursday afternoon, though it's worth noting that the 12Z GGEM
is an even slow outlier compared to 12Z GFS/ECMWF guidance. The
front should be south of our area by Thursday night with high
pressure providing dry weather through at least Friday. Temperatures
will be notably cooler with highs in the 70s Thursday and Friday.
Dew points will also fall back into the 50s, resulting in much more
comfortable conditions and low temperatures in the lower to mid 50s
on Thursday night.

High pressure will exit eastward across New England and the Canadian
Maritimes, with a southerly return flow of warmer and more humid air
developing for the weekend. Model guidance is in fairly good
agreement that a weak cold front will approach the region Saturday
night and move across the area on Sunday. This may result in showers
and possibly a thunderstorm on Sunday. Otherwise, expect highs to be
in the upper 70s to lower 80s for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through sunrise...ridging at all levels will maintain quiet and
dry conditions across western and north central New York. Skies
will feature increasing/thickening high clouds (generated by ongoing
upstream convection over the Central Great Lakes)...with some spotty
lower (IFR/MVFR) clouds also found across far western New York and
east of Lake Ontario. While the aforementioned increase in high
cloud cover should help to prevent the formation of much in the way
of significant fog...some patchy light fog will still be possible
just about anywhere given the very warm humid airmass and light
surface flow that is in place. In terms of flight conditions...
expect these to be primarily MVFR to VFR...though localized IFR
conditions will be possible across far western New York and east
of Lake Ontario.

As we move into the daylight hours of today...any patchy fog and
lower clouds will dissipate during the first part of the morning
with increasing diurnal heating and mixing. While this will result
in conditions largely improving to VFR...a weakening impulse passing
through our region may still help to generate some isolated to widely
scattered showers and storms...with these capable of producing some
brief/highly localized reductions to MVFR or IFR. For now...have
covered this potential with a period of low VFR ceilings/VCSH in
the TAFs.

Tonight the shortwave impulse will slide eastward across Southern
Ontario/Northern New York and bring the risk for some additional
widely scattered to scattered convection and attendant restrictions
to the Eastern Lake Ontario Region through at least the early
overnight hours...before finally exiting eastward into Quebec and
New England late. In its wake...the upper level ridge will slowly
amplify northward over the rest of our region...with attendant
subsidence and strengthening mid-level capping promoting mainly dry
weather and VFR conditions. At this point we do not expect any fog
formation...as a decent southwesterly surface flow and low level
mixing should be in place.

Outlook...
Tuesday...Mainly VFR with just some isolated showers or storms
possible across the North Country.
Wednesday...VFR to MVFR with showers and thunderstorms becoming
likely...particularly later Wednesday afternoon and night.
Thursday...A chance of leftover showers/MVFR early...otherwise
mainly VFR.
Friday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure draped from the Tennessee Valley to the Carolinas
will keep a light to moderate south to southwesterly flow in place
across the Lower Great Lakes through tonight...with conditions
remaining below Small Craft Advisory criteria. About the only issue
will be the risk for some isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms
as a disturbance pushes through our region...though the majority of
the time should feature fair dry weather.

Tuesday into Wednesday southwesterly flow will freshen across the
region out ahead of a slowly approaching cold front...with periods
of advisory-worthy winds and waves possible...especially for
eastern Lake Erie...the Upper Niagara River/Buffalo Harbor...and
western Lake Ontario. The cold front is then expected to press
southeastward across the Lower Lakes later Wednesday and Wednesday
night while generating more numerous showers and thunderstorms...
some of which could potentially feature strong gusty winds.

In the wake of the cold front...Canadian high pressure is then
expected to build across the region Thursday and Friday...while
bringing about a return to fair weather and calmer conditions.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The strength of a sub tropical ridge to our south will pump
oppressively warm and humid air across our region through mid week.
There will be the potential for some spots to reach record highs...
with the highest chance coming on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Record Highs
                Monday      Tuesday     Wednesday
Buffalo        *99 (1948)   92 (1952)   90 (1951)
Rochester       98 (1948)   99 (1948)   94 (1973)
Watertown       90 (1993)   90 (1973)   89 (1953)

Interestingly...the all time record high(*) of 99 set in Buffalo was
set on this date in 1948. Rochester also set record highs during the
same heat wave for both Aug 27 and 28.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for NYZ001-007-008-
     010-011.
     Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for
     NYZ002>005-013-014.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...Apffel
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR
CLIMATE...RSH
Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 26, 2:40 PM EDT, 13 hours 4 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
240 PM EDT Sun Aug 26 2018

NYZ010-012-019>021-085-271845-
Northern Erie-Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
240 PM EDT Sun Aug 26 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Temperatures are forecast to climb into the mid to upper 80s Monday
through Wednesday. The combination of the heat and high humidity
levels could potentially result in apparent temperatures reaching
the mid 90s on Tuesday and Wednesday, with the most uncomfortable
conditions expected during the day Tuesday.

A strong cold front is expected to cross the region between
Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night along with some showers
and thunderstorms. Depending upon the exact timing of the frontal
passage, there is a chance that at least a few of the storms could
be strong to severe, with strong gusty winds the primary threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ002-271845-
Orleans-
240 PM EDT Sun Aug 26 2018

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

The combination of the heat and high humidity levels will result in
apparent temperatures potentially reaching or exceeding the mid 90s
again Tuesday and Wednesday.

A strong cold front is expected to cross the region between
Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night along with some showers
and thunderstorms. Depending upon the exact timing of the frontal
passage, there is a chance that at least a few of the storms could
be strong to severe, with strong gusty winds the primary threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001-011-271845-
Niagara-Genesee-
240 PM EDT Sun Aug 26 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Temperatures are forecast to climb into the mid 80s to lower 90s
Monday through Wednesday. The combination of the heat and high
humidity levels will result in apparent temperatures potentially
reaching or exceeding the mid 90s Tuesday and Wednesday, with the
most uncomfortable conditions expected during the day Tuesday.

A strong cold front is expected to cross the region between
Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night along with some showers
and thunderstorms. Depending upon the exact timing of the frontal
passage, there is a chance that at least a few of the storms could
be strong to severe, with strong gusty winds the primary threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ003>005-013-014-271845-
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Livingston-Ontario-
240 PM EDT Sun Aug 26 2018

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

The combination of the heat and high humidity levels will result in
apparent temperatures potentially reaching or exceeding the mid 90s
again Tuesday and Wednesday.

A strong cold front is expected to cross the region between
Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night along with some showers
and thunderstorms. Depending upon the exact timing of the frontal
passage, there is a chance that at least a few of the storms could
be strong to severe, with strong gusty winds the primary threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ006-271845-
Oswego-
240 PM EDT Sun Aug 26 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Temperatures are forecast to climb into the mid 80s to lower 90s
Monday through Wednesday. The combination of the heat and high
humidity levels will result in apparent temperatures potentially
reaching or exceeding the mid 90s Tuesday and Wednesday, with the
most uncomfortable conditions expected during the day Tuesday.

A strong cold front is expected to cross the region between
Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night along with some showers
and thunderstorms. Depending upon the exact timing of the frontal
passage, there is a chance that at least a few of the storms could
be strong to severe, with strong gusty winds the primary threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ007-008-271845-
Jefferson-Lewis-
240 PM EDT Sun Aug 26 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Temperatures are forecast to climb into the mid to upper 80s Monday
through Wednesday. The combination of the heat and high humidity
levels could potentially result in apparent temperatures reaching
the mid to upper 90s on Tuesday and Wednesday, with the most
uncomfortable conditions expected during the day Tuesday.

A strong cold front is expected to cross the region between
Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night along with some showers
and thunderstorms. Depending upon the exact timing of the frontal
passage, there is a chance that at least a few of the storms could
be strong to severe, with strong gusty winds the primary threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-271845-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
240 PM EDT Sun Aug 26 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake
Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

A strong cold front is expected to cross the region between
Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night along with some showers
and thunderstorms. Depending upon the exact timing of the frontal
passage, there is a chance that at least a few of the storms could
be strong to severe, with strong gusty winds the primary threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

The office that day

Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 27, 2:37 PM EDTSmall Craft AdvisoryBUF29 hr

Nearby

Heat Advisories in New York, 2018Every heat advisory in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.