Alert archive / New York / Heat Advisories in 2018
Heat Advisory 8, NWS Buffalo, NY
NWS Buffalo, NY issued this heat advisory at Aug 26, 2018, 2:34 PM EDT for 6 counties in New York. It took effect at Aug 27, 2018, 12:00 PM EDT. It was in force for 7 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 26, 2018, 2:34 PM EDT (18:34 UTC)
- In effect from
- Aug 27, 2018, 12:00 PM EDT
- Expired
- Aug 27, 2018, 6:58 PM EDT
- In force
- 7 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Buffalo, NY
Counties Cayuga County, NY, Livingston County, NY, Monroe County, NY, Ontario County, NY, Orleans County, NY, Wayne County, NY
The radar
The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 108 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:34 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 12:00Z, 6.6 hours before the alert went out and 105 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 475 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -12 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 649 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 35 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 148 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 183 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.2
- Supercell composite
- 0.9
The text
As transmitted.
124 WWUS71 KBUF 261834 NPWBUF URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 234 PM EDT Sun Aug 26 2018 NYZ002>005-013-014-270245- /O.NEW.KBUF.HT.Y.0008.180827T1600Z-180828T0000Z/ Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Livingston-Ontario- Including the cities of Medina, Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven, Geneseo, and Canandaigua 234 PM EDT Sun Aug 26 2018 ...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY... The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Heat Advisory, which is in effect from noon to 8 PM EDT Monday. * LOCATIONS...Orleans, Monroe, Wayne, Northern Cayuga, Livingston, and Ontario counties. * TIMING...From late Monday morning through early Monday evening. * HEAT INDEX VALUES...In the mid 90s. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Heat Advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are possible. Drink plenty of fluids...stay in an air-conditioned room...stay out of the sun...and check in on relatives and neighbors. Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. when possible...reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Wear light weight and loose fitting clothing when possible and drink plenty of water. To reduce risk during outdoor work...the occupational safety and health administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. anyone overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke is an emergency - call 9 1 1. && $$ TMA
5 follow-up statements
542 WWUS71 KBUF 270007 NPWBUF URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 807 PM EDT Sun Aug 26 2018 NYZ002>005-013-014-270815- /O.CON.KBUF.HT.Y.0008.180827T1600Z-180828T0000Z/ Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Livingston-Ontario- Including the cities of Medina, Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven, Geneseo, and Canandaigua 807 PM EDT Sun Aug 26 2018 ...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY... * LOCATIONS...Orleans, Monroe, Wayne, Northern Cayuga, Livingston, and Ontario counties. * TIMING...From late Monday morning through early Monday evening. * HEAT INDEX VALUES...In the mid 90s. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Heat Advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are possible. Drink plenty of fluids...stay in an air-conditioned room...stay out of the sun...and check in on relatives and neighbors. Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. when possible...reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Wear light weight and loose fitting clothing when possible and drink plenty of water. To reduce risk during outdoor work...the occupational safety and health administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. anyone overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke is an emergency - call 9 1 1. && $$ Smith
897 WWUS71 KBUF 270744 NPWBUF URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 344 AM EDT Mon Aug 27 2018 NYZ001-007-008-010-011-271545- /O.NEW.KBUF.HT.Y.0009.180828T1600Z-180829T0000Z/ Niagara-Jefferson-Lewis-Northern Erie-Genesee- Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Watertown, Lowville, Buffalo, and Batavia 344 AM EDT Mon Aug 27 2018 ...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY... The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Heat Advisory, which is in effect from noon Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Tuesday. * LOCATIONS...Niagara, Jefferson, Lewis, Northern Erie, and Genesee counties. * TIMING...From late Tuesday morning through early Tuesday evening. * HEAT INDEX VALUES...In the mid to upper 90s. * IMPACTS...The heat and humidity may cause heat stress during outdoor exertion or extended exposure. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Heat Advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are possible. Drink plenty of fluids...stay in an air-conditioned room...stay out of the sun...and check in on relatives and neighbors. Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. when possible...reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Wear light weight and loose fitting clothing when possible and drink plenty of water. && $$ NYZ002>005-013-014-271545- /O.EXT.KBUF.HT.Y.0008.180827T1600Z-180829T0000Z/ Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Livingston-Ontario- Including the cities of Medina, Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven, Geneseo, and Canandaigua 344 AM EDT Mon Aug 27 2018 ...HEAT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY... * LOCATIONS...Orleans, Monroe, Wayne, Northern Cayuga, Livingston, and Ontario counties. * TIMING...From late this morning through early Tuesday evening. * HEAT INDEX VALUES...Could exceed 100...particularly on Tuesday. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Heat Advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are possible. Drink plenty of fluids...stay in an air-conditioned room...stay out of the sun...and check in on relatives and neighbors. To reduce risk during outdoor work...the occupational safety and health administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke is an emergency - call 9 1 1. && $$
420 WWUS71 KBUF 270826 NPWBUF URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 426 AM EDT Mon Aug 27 2018 NYZ006-271630- /O.EXA.KBUF.HT.Y.0009.180828T1600Z-180829T0000Z/ Oswego- Including the city of Oswego 426 AM EDT Mon Aug 27 2018 ...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY... The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Heat Advisory, which is in effect from noon Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Tuesday. * LOCATIONS...Oswego county. * TIMING...From late Tuesday morning through early Tuesday evening. * HEAT INDEX VALUES...As high as 100. * IMPACTS...The heat and humidity may cause heat stress during outdoor exertion or extended exposure. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Heat Advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are possible. Drink plenty of fluids...stay in an air-conditioned room...stay out of the sun...and check in on relatives and neighbors. && $$ NYZ002>005-013-014-271630- /O.CON.KBUF.HT.Y.0008.180827T1600Z-180829T0000Z/ Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Livingston-Ontario- Including the cities of Medina, Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven, Geneseo, and Canandaigua 426 AM EDT Mon Aug 27 2018 ...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY... * LOCATIONS...Orleans, Monroe, Wayne, Northern Cayuga, Livingston, and Ontario counties. * TIMING...From late this morning through early Tuesday evening. * HEAT INDEX VALUES...Could exceed 100...particularly on Tuesday. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Heat Advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are possible. Drink plenty of fluids...stay in an air-conditioned room...stay out of the sun...and check in on relatives and neighbors. To reduce risk during outdoor work...the occupational safety and health administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke is an emergency - call 9 1 1. && $$ NYZ001-007-008-010-011-271630- /O.CON.KBUF.HT.Y.0009.180828T1600Z-180829T0000Z/ Niagara-Jefferson-Lewis-Northern Erie-Genesee- Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Watertown, Lowville, Buffalo, and Batavia 426 AM EDT Mon Aug 27 2018 ...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY... * LOCATIONS...Niagara, Jefferson, Lewis, Northern Erie, and Genesee counties. * TIMING...From late Tuesday morning through early Tuesday evening. * HEAT INDEX VALUES...In the mid to upper 90s. * IMPACTS...The heat and humidity may cause heat stress during outdoor exertion or extended exposure. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Heat Advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are possible. Drink plenty of fluids...stay in an air-conditioned room...stay out of the sun...and check in on relatives and neighbors. && $$
560 WWUS71 KBUF 271611 NPWBUF URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1211 PM EDT Mon Aug 27 2018 NYZ002>005-013-014-280015- /O.CON.KBUF.HT.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-180829T0000Z/ Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Livingston-Ontario- Including the cities of Medina, Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven, Geneseo, and Canandaigua 1211 PM EDT Mon Aug 27 2018 ...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY... * LOCATIONS...Orleans, Monroe, Wayne, Northern Cayuga, Livingston, and Ontario counties. * TIMING...Through early Tuesday evening. * HEAT INDEX VALUES...Could exceed 100...particularly on Tuesday. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Heat Advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are possible. Drink plenty of fluids...stay in an air-conditioned room...stay out of the sun...and check in on relatives and neighbors. To reduce risk during outdoor work...the occupational safety and health administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke is an emergency - call 9 1 1. && $$ NYZ001-006>008-010-011-280015- /O.CON.KBUF.HT.Y.0009.180828T1600Z-180829T0000Z/ Niagara-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-Northern Erie-Genesee- Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Oswego, Watertown, Lowville, Buffalo, and Batavia 1211 PM EDT Mon Aug 27 2018 ...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY... * LOCATIONS...Niagara, Jefferson, Lewis, Northern Erie, and Genesee counties. * TIMING...From late Tuesday morning through early Tuesday evening. * HEAT INDEX VALUES...In the mid to upper 90s. * IMPACTS...The heat and humidity may cause heat stress during outdoor exertion or extended exposure. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Heat Advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are possible. Drink plenty of fluids...stay in an air-conditioned room...stay out of the sun...and check in on relatives and neighbors. && $$
154 WWUS71 KBUF 272258 NPWBUF URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 658 PM EDT Mon Aug 27 2018 NYZ002>005-013-014-280700- /O.CAN.KBUF.HT.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-180829T0000Z/ /O.EXA.KBUF.HT.Y.0009.180828T1600Z-180829T0000Z/ Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Livingston-Ontario- Including the cities of Medina, Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven, Geneseo, and Canandaigua 658 PM EDT Mon Aug 27 2018 ...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY... The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Heat Advisory, which is in effect from noon to 8 PM EDT Tuesday. * LOCATIONS...Orleans, Monroe, Wayne, Northern Cayuga, Livingston, and Ontario counties. * TIMING...From late Tuesday morning through early Tuesday evening. * HEAT INDEX VALUES...As high as 100. * IMPACTS...The heat and humidity may cause heat stress during outdoor exertion or extended exposure. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Heat Advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are possible. Drink plenty of fluids...stay in an air-conditioned room...stay out of the sun...and check in on relatives and neighbors. To reduce risk during outdoor work...the occupational safety and health administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke is an emergency - call 9 1 1. && $$ NYZ001-006>008-010-011-280700- /O.CON.KBUF.HT.Y.0009.180828T1600Z-180829T0000Z/ Niagara-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-Northern Erie-Genesee- Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Oswego, Watertown, Lowville, Buffalo, and Batavia 658 PM EDT Mon Aug 27 2018 ...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY... * LOCATIONS...Niagara, Jefferson, Lewis, Northern Erie, and Genesee counties. * TIMING...From late Tuesday morning through early Tuesday evening. * HEAT INDEX VALUES...In the upper 90s. * IMPACTS...The heat and humidity may cause heat stress during outdoor exertion or extended exposure. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Heat Advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are possible. Drink plenty of fluids...stay in an air-conditioned room...stay out of the sun...and check in on relatives and neighbors. To reduce risk during outdoor work...the occupational safety and health administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke is an emergency - call 9 1 1. && $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this heat advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this heat advisory went out at Aug 26, 10:35 AM EDT, 3 hours 59 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 26, 10:35 AM EDT, 3 hours 59 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1035 AM EDT Sun Aug 26 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A weak warm front will usher in a noticeably more humid airmass today. As warmth and humidity continue to increase into the coming week, isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible, but it will be mostly dry. Hot and humid conditions will remain with us through the middle of week. After a cold front late Wednesday with showers and thunderstorms, the weather turns cooler later this week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... It will be warm and noticeably more humid across the region today... as a weak warm front will usher in tropical-like air from the Upper Mid West. Unlike a true warm front though...this one will lack the baroclinicity and resulting forcing of warmer air riding up over a cooler one in place. In a sense...the feature will be more of a low level moisture or dew point boundary. This will limit the amount of shower and thunderstorm activity...but don't let your guard down. As was excellently pointed out in a previous discussion...the passing of this subtle feature will set up a gradient of increasing instability over the region. As the day progresses and dew points climb towards 70...SBCAPE values are forecast to climb to between 500-1500 j/kg...with the most unstable air being found across the Southern Tier. Any convection that does develop will have to do so in the vicinity of lake breeze boundaries or close to the weakening 'warm front' (Finger Lakes east) and will have to overcome the presence of a 1-2 deg subsidence inversion. While this cap should deter any true convection from firing this morning...it is forecast to weaken during the afternoon and early evening. Another area to watch will be north of the Thruway between Buffalo and Rochester where a low level convergence zone should become established. This should at least keep a persistent area of Cu in place and could possibly support some brief showers. That being said...the vast majority of the day should be rain free. High temperatures will range from the mid 70s on the Tug Hill to the mid 80s across the lake plains and in the valleys. Fair dry weather can be expected tonight...as the crest of an impressive late season 594dm mid level ridge will cross the Lower Great Lakes. It will be warm and muggy though with temperatures only forecast to fall to the mid and upper 60s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... In a nutshell...the dominant weather feature during this period will be a strong subtropical upper level ridge...which will gradually amplify as its core slowly drifts east from the southern Appalachians on Monday to a position just a little offshore of the North Carolina coast by Wednesday night. For our area...this feature will provide a period of heat and high humidity that should last through most if not all of Wednesday...before it finally gives way to an approaching broad upper level trough and associated cold front later Wednesday and/or Wednesday night. Digging a little deeper into the forecast details...on Monday the core of the upper ridge will remain nearly stationary over the Tennessee Valley and Carolinas...while a slowly dampening mid/upper- level shortwave tracks eastward around its northern periphery. Compared to yesterday...this feature looks to be a bit weaker and displaced slightly further to the north...which would result in the bulk of its forcing passing by to our northwest and primarily affecting Southern Ontario. At the same time though...its southern tail still looks to clip our region as it passes by...and this in tandem with increasing diurnal heating/instability may still be enough to generate a few additional widely scattered to scattered showers and thunderstorms...for which a mix of slight chance to lower-end chance PoPs remains in play. Meanwhile...850 mb temps in the upper teens Celsius should allow for afternoon highs to reach into the mid to upper 80s in most areas...and this coupled with oppressive surface dewpoints of around 70 degrees should yield maximum apparent temperatures in the lower 90s in many areas...with portions of the Lower Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes seeing a bit more sun/ slightly higher max temperatures and therefore potentially reaching lower-end Heat Advisory criteria (which is 95F). During Monday night the shortwave impulse will slide eastward across Southern Ontario/Northern New York while bringing the risk for some additional widely scattered to scattered convection to the Eastern Lake Ontario Region and Saint Lawrence Valley...before exiting eastward into Quebec and New England overnight. In its wake...the upper level ridge will slowly amplify over our region through Tuesday with attendant subsidence and strengthening mid-level capping promoting mainly dry weather. The bigger story during this period will be the continued oppressive heat and humidity...which (in tandem with the ridging aloft) still looks to peak across our region on Tuesday. After a downright sultry night Monday night when lows will struggle to fall below the lower to mid 70s in most areas...850 mb temps pushing +20C...more in the way of sunshine... and good low level mixing should allow Tuesday's highs to peak in the upper 80s to lower 90s...with some spots in the Genesee Valley and western Finger Lakes potentially even seeing high temperatures in the mid 90s. In tandem with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s...this should result in apparent temperatures reaching the 95 to 100 degree range across a sizable chunk of our region...and possibly even breaching 100F from Niagara/Orleans counties eastward across the Finger Lakes and Oswego county. Should such oppressive conditions be realized...it would necessitate the issuance of fairly widespread Heat Advisories. Tuesday night the core of the upper level ridge will slowly drift eastward to the Atlantic coastline...while upstream a broad upper level trough and attendant frontal system/cold front will slowly sag into the Central Great Lakes. Our region will lie between these two systems and will therefore remain under the influence of deep southwesterly flow and continued oppressively warm and humid conditions...with overnight lows again struggling to fall below the lower to mid 70s in most areas. Mainly dry weather will also continue to prevail...with a few migratory weak shortwave impulses possibly generating some widely scattered to scattered convection across Lake Ontario and the North Country. Wednesday and Wednesday night the core of the upper level ridge will finally drift offshore...which should eventually allow the broad upstream upper trough and its attendant strong cold front to sag southeastward and across our region. Owing to the increasingly delayed departure of the upper ridge and the almost parallel orientation of the front to the mid and upper level flow...the medium range guidance continues to rather unsurprisingly trend slower and slower with the timing of the frontal passage. A rough 00z/26 model consensus now supports a frontal passage between later Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday evening...though it should be noted that the GEM and ECMWF are even slower...with these two models now both depicting a primarily Wednesday night frontal passage. With all of the above in mind...have slowed down the timing of the front a little more with this latest forecast package. The interaction of the front/upper trough with our antecedent very warm and humid airmass will likely result in a round of showers and thunderstorms as these features pass through our region...with a favorably strong wind field aloft offering a conditional risk for at least a few stronger to severe storm dependent upon the exact timing of the front and its influence on available instability. In terms of temperatures...the slower timing of the front should allow for one more day of oppressive heat and humidity on Wednesday... when highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s and dewpoints of around 70 could again result in apparent temperatures reaching Heat Advisory criteria across the Finger Lakes and portions of central New York. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... In the wake of the cold front...high pressure will build across our region and bring cooler...much less humid...and mainly dry conditions from Thursday through Saturday. Expect dewpoints to plunge into the much more comfortable 50s for both Thursday and Friday...while daytime highs settle back into the 70s. Both will then begin to climb back upward on Saturday as the high exits eastward across New England and the Canadian Maritimes...and a southerly return flow of warmer and somewhat more humid air consequently develops across our region. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Lingering MVFR cigs across much of the region this morning will gradually lift to VFR levels by midday. While dry weather will dominate the region, there will still be the risk for a shower or thunderstorm for sites mainly east of Rochester. Tonight, VFR conditions should be in place for the majority of the region. The exception will be across the Southern Tier where the humid airmass will encourage areas of fog and stratus to develop. This could lead to IFR conditions at KJHW and KELZ. Outlook... Monday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR but with a few low chances of showers and thunderstorms. Wednesday...VFR to MVFR with showers and thunderstorms likely. Thursday...VFR. && .MARINE... Moderate to occasionally fresh southerlies across the Lower Great Lakes this morning will keep the highest waves and choppiest conditions in Canadian waters where wave heights of 4 feet will be found between Long Point and Crystal Beach on Lake Erie, and in the vicinity of Point Petre and Duck Island over Lake Ontario. As a weak warm front dissipates over the region during the midday and afternoon...winds will veer to the southwest and gradually weaken. This should keep conditions below small craft advisory criteria for the U.S waters and the adjacent rivers. Tonight...a weakening surface pressure gradient will allow winds and waves to further subside. While winds will freshen somewhat on Monday...especially on Lake Erie...conditions will remain below small craft advisory criteria. The only possible issue will be the minimal risk for thunderstorms. Looking further ahead to Tuesday...fresh to strong southwesterlies are forecast to develop over the region. This will likely result in small craft advisory conditions over both lakes. Strong thunderstorms will then be likely across the region Wednesday into Wednesday evening. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && SYNOPSIS...RSH/TMA NEAR TERM...RSH SHORT TERM...JJR LONG TERM...JJR AVIATION...RSH/TMA MARINE...RSH
Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 26, 4:46 AM EDT, 9 hours 48 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Buffalo NY 446 AM EDT Sun Aug 26 2018 NYZ010-012-019>021-085-270900- Northern Erie-Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie- 446 AM EDT Sun Aug 26 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Temperatures are forecast to climb into the mid to upper 80s Monday through Wednesday. The combination of the heat and high humidity levels could potentially result in apparent temperatures reaching the mid 90s on Tuesday, when the most uncomfortable conditions are expected. A strong cold front is expected to cross the region between Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night along with some showers and thunderstorms. Depending upon the exact timing of the frontal passage, there is a chance that at least a few of the storms could be strong to severe, with strong gusty winds the primary threat. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ001-002-011-270900- Niagara-Orleans-Genesee- 446 AM EDT Sun Aug 26 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Temperatures are forecast to climb into the mid 80s to lower 90s Monday through Wednesday. The combination of the heat and high humidity levels will result in apparent temperatures potentially reaching or exceeding the mid 90s Monday and Tuesday, with the most uncomfortable conditions expected during the day Tuesday. A strong cold front is expected to cross the region between Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night along with some showers and thunderstorms. Depending upon the exact timing of the frontal passage, there is a chance that at least a few of the storms could be strong to severe, with strong gusty winds the primary threat. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ003>006-013-014-270900- Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Livingston-Ontario- 446 AM EDT Sun Aug 26 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north central New York. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Temperatures are forecast to climb into the mid 80s to lower 90s Monday through Wednesday. The combination of the heat and high humidity levels will result in apparent temperatures potentially reaching or exceeding the mid 90s Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, with the most uncomfortable conditions expected during the day Tuesday. A strong cold front is expected to cross the region between Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night along with some showers and thunderstorms. Depending upon the exact timing of the frontal passage, there is a chance that at least a few of the storms could be strong to severe, with strong gusty winds the primary threat. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ007-008-270900- Jefferson-Lewis- 446 AM EDT Sun Aug 26 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Temperatures are forecast to climb into the mid to upper 80s Monday through Wednesday. The combination of the heat and high humidity levels could potentially result in apparent temperatures reaching the mid to upper 90s on Tuesday, when the most uncomfortable conditions are expected. A strong cold front is expected to cross the region between Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night along with some showers and thunderstorms. Depending upon the exact timing of the frontal passage, there is a chance that at least a few of the storms could be strong to severe, with strong gusty winds the primary threat. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-270900- Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo- Lower Niagara River- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg- Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis- 446 AM EDT Sun Aug 26 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. A strong cold front is expected to cross the region between Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night along with some showers and thunderstorms. Depending upon the exact timing of the frontal passage, there is a chance that at least a few of the storms could be strong to severe, with strong gusty winds the primary threat. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf JJR
Nearby
Heat Advisories in New York, 2018Every heat advisory in 2018
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.