Alert archive / New York / Heat Advisories in 2018

Heat Advisory 8, NWS Buffalo, NY

August 26, 20186 counties in New York

NWS Buffalo, NY issued this heat advisory at Aug 26, 2018, 2:34 PM EDT for 6 counties in New York. It took effect at Aug 27, 2018, 12:00 PM EDT. It was in force for 7 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Aug 26, 2018, 2:34 PM EDT (18:34 UTC)
In effect from
Aug 27, 2018, 12:00 PM EDT
Expired
Aug 27, 2018, 6:58 PM EDT
In force
7 hr
Issued by
NWS Buffalo, NY

Counties Cayuga County, NY, Livingston County, NY, Monroe County, NY, Ontario County, NY, Orleans County, NY, Wayne County, NY

The radar

The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 108 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:34 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 12:00Z, 6.6 hours before the alert went out and 105 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 12:00Z on 2018-08-26Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 475 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 12:00Z on 2018-08-26The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 148 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
475 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-12 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
649 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
35 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
148 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
183 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.2
Supercell composite
0.9

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

124 
WWUS71 KBUF 261834
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
234 PM EDT Sun Aug 26 2018

NYZ002>005-013-014-270245-
/O.NEW.KBUF.HT.Y.0008.180827T1600Z-180828T0000Z/
Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Livingston-Ontario-
Including the cities of Medina, Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven, 
Geneseo, and Canandaigua
234 PM EDT Sun Aug 26 2018

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Heat
Advisory, which is in effect from noon to 8 PM EDT Monday.

* LOCATIONS...Orleans, Monroe, Wayne, Northern Cayuga, 
  Livingston, and Ontario counties.

* TIMING...From late Monday morning through early Monday evening.

* HEAT INDEX VALUES...In the mid 90s.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Heat Advisory means that a period of hot temperatures
is expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high
humidity will combine to create a situation in which heat
illnesses are possible. Drink plenty of fluids...stay in an
air-conditioned room...stay out of the sun...and check in
on relatives and neighbors.

Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside.
when possible...reschedule strenuous activities to early
morning or evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat
exhaustion and heat stroke. Wear light weight and loose
fitting clothing when possible and drink plenty of water.

To reduce risk during outdoor work...the occupational safety
and health administration recommends scheduling frequent
rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments.
anyone overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and
shaded location. Heat stroke is an emergency - call 9 1 1.

&&

$$

TMA
5 follow-up statements
542 
WWUS71 KBUF 270007
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
807 PM EDT Sun Aug 26 2018

NYZ002>005-013-014-270815-
/O.CON.KBUF.HT.Y.0008.180827T1600Z-180828T0000Z/
Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Livingston-Ontario-
Including the cities of Medina, Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven, 
Geneseo, and Canandaigua
807 PM EDT Sun Aug 26 2018

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY...

* LOCATIONS...Orleans, Monroe, Wayne, Northern Cayuga, 
  Livingston, and Ontario counties.

* TIMING...From late Monday morning through early Monday evening.

* HEAT INDEX VALUES...In the mid 90s.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Heat Advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is
expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity
will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are
possible. Drink plenty of fluids...stay in an air-conditioned
room...stay out of the sun...and check in on relatives and
neighbors.

Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. when
possible...reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or
evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat
stroke. Wear light weight and loose fitting clothing when
possible and drink plenty of water.

To reduce risk during outdoor work...the occupational safety and
health administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks
in shaded or air conditioned environments. anyone overcome by
heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke
is an emergency - call 9 1 1.

&&

$$

Smith
897 
WWUS71 KBUF 270744
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
344 AM EDT Mon Aug 27 2018

NYZ001-007-008-010-011-271545-
/O.NEW.KBUF.HT.Y.0009.180828T1600Z-180829T0000Z/
Niagara-Jefferson-Lewis-Northern Erie-Genesee-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Watertown, Lowville, 
Buffalo, and Batavia
344 AM EDT Mon Aug 27 2018

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 8 PM EDT 
TUESDAY...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Heat
Advisory, which is in effect from noon Tuesday to 8 PM EDT 
Tuesday.

* LOCATIONS...Niagara, Jefferson, Lewis, Northern Erie, and 
  Genesee counties.

* TIMING...From late Tuesday morning through early Tuesday 
  evening.

* HEAT INDEX VALUES...In the mid to upper 90s.

* IMPACTS...The heat and humidity may cause heat stress during 
  outdoor exertion or extended exposure.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Heat Advisory means that a period of hot temperatures
is expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high
humidity will combine to create a situation in which heat
illnesses are possible. Drink plenty of fluids...stay in an
air-conditioned room...stay out of the sun...and check in
on relatives and neighbors.

Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside.
when possible...reschedule strenuous activities to early
morning or evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat
exhaustion and heat stroke. Wear light weight and loose
fitting clothing when possible and drink plenty of water.

&&

$$

NYZ002>005-013-014-271545-
/O.EXT.KBUF.HT.Y.0008.180827T1600Z-180829T0000Z/
Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Livingston-Ontario-
Including the cities of Medina, Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven, 
Geneseo, and Canandaigua
344 AM EDT Mon Aug 27 2018

...HEAT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT
TUESDAY...

* LOCATIONS...Orleans, Monroe, Wayne, Northern Cayuga, 
  Livingston, and Ontario counties.

* TIMING...From late this morning through early Tuesday evening.

* HEAT INDEX VALUES...Could exceed 100...particularly on Tuesday.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Heat Advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is
expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity
will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are
possible. Drink plenty of fluids...stay in an air-conditioned
room...stay out of the sun...and check in on relatives and
neighbors.

To reduce risk during outdoor work...the occupational safety and
health administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks
in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by
heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke
is an emergency - call 9 1 1.

&&

$$
420 
WWUS71 KBUF 270826
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
426 AM EDT Mon Aug 27 2018

NYZ006-271630-
/O.EXA.KBUF.HT.Y.0009.180828T1600Z-180829T0000Z/
Oswego-
Including the city of Oswego
426 AM EDT Mon Aug 27 2018

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 8 PM EDT 
TUESDAY...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Heat
Advisory, which is in effect from noon Tuesday to 8 PM EDT 
Tuesday.

* LOCATIONS...Oswego county.

* TIMING...From late Tuesday morning through early Tuesday 
  evening.

* HEAT INDEX VALUES...As high as 100.

* IMPACTS...The heat and humidity may cause heat stress during 
  outdoor exertion or extended exposure.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Heat Advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is
expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity
will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are
possible. Drink plenty of fluids...stay in an air-conditioned
room...stay out of the sun...and check in on relatives and
neighbors.

&&

$$

NYZ002>005-013-014-271630-
/O.CON.KBUF.HT.Y.0008.180827T1600Z-180829T0000Z/
Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Livingston-Ontario-
Including the cities of Medina, Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven, 
Geneseo, and Canandaigua
426 AM EDT Mon Aug 27 2018

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT
TUESDAY...

* LOCATIONS...Orleans, Monroe, Wayne, Northern Cayuga, 
  Livingston, and Ontario counties.

* TIMING...From late this morning through early Tuesday evening.

* HEAT INDEX VALUES...Could exceed 100...particularly on Tuesday. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Heat Advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is
expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity
will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are
possible. Drink plenty of fluids...stay in an air-conditioned
room...stay out of the sun...and check in on relatives and
neighbors.

To reduce risk during outdoor work...the occupational safety and
health administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks
in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by
heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke
is an emergency - call 9 1 1.

&&

$$

NYZ001-007-008-010-011-271630-
/O.CON.KBUF.HT.Y.0009.180828T1600Z-180829T0000Z/
Niagara-Jefferson-Lewis-Northern Erie-Genesee-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Watertown, Lowville, 
Buffalo, and Batavia
426 AM EDT Mon Aug 27 2018

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 8 PM EDT
TUESDAY...

* LOCATIONS...Niagara, Jefferson, Lewis, Northern Erie, and 
  Genesee counties.

* TIMING...From late Tuesday morning through early Tuesday 
  evening.

* HEAT INDEX VALUES...In the mid to upper 90s.

* IMPACTS...The heat and humidity may cause heat stress during 
  outdoor exertion or extended exposure.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Heat Advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is
expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity
will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are
possible. Drink plenty of fluids...stay in an air-conditioned
room...stay out of the sun...and check in on relatives and
neighbors.

&&

$$
560 
WWUS71 KBUF 271611
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1211 PM EDT Mon Aug 27 2018

NYZ002>005-013-014-280015-
/O.CON.KBUF.HT.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-180829T0000Z/
Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Livingston-Ontario-
Including the cities of Medina, Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven, 
Geneseo, and Canandaigua
1211 PM EDT Mon Aug 27 2018

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY...

* LOCATIONS...Orleans, Monroe, Wayne, Northern Cayuga, 
  Livingston, and Ontario counties.

* TIMING...Through early Tuesday evening.

* HEAT INDEX VALUES...Could exceed 100...particularly on Tuesday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Heat Advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is
expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity
will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are
possible. Drink plenty of fluids...stay in an air-conditioned
room...stay out of the sun...and check in on relatives and
neighbors.

To reduce risk during outdoor work...the occupational safety and
health administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks
in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by
heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke
is an emergency - call 9 1 1.

&&

$$

NYZ001-006>008-010-011-280015-
/O.CON.KBUF.HT.Y.0009.180828T1600Z-180829T0000Z/
Niagara-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-Northern Erie-Genesee-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Oswego, Watertown, 
Lowville, Buffalo, and Batavia
1211 PM EDT Mon Aug 27 2018

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 8 PM EDT 
TUESDAY...

* LOCATIONS...Niagara, Jefferson, Lewis, Northern Erie, and 
  Genesee counties.

* TIMING...From late Tuesday morning through early Tuesday 
  evening.

* HEAT INDEX VALUES...In the mid to upper 90s.

* IMPACTS...The heat and humidity may cause heat stress during 
  outdoor exertion or extended exposure.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Heat Advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is
expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity
will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are
possible. Drink plenty of fluids...stay in an air-conditioned
room...stay out of the sun...and check in on relatives and
neighbors.

&&

$$
154 
WWUS71 KBUF 272258
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
658 PM EDT Mon Aug 27 2018

NYZ002>005-013-014-280700-
/O.CAN.KBUF.HT.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-180829T0000Z/
/O.EXA.KBUF.HT.Y.0009.180828T1600Z-180829T0000Z/
Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Livingston-Ontario-
Including the cities of Medina, Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven, 
Geneseo, and Canandaigua
658 PM EDT Mon Aug 27 2018

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Heat
Advisory, which is in effect from noon to 8 PM EDT Tuesday.

* LOCATIONS...Orleans, Monroe, Wayne, Northern Cayuga, 
  Livingston, and Ontario counties.

* TIMING...From late Tuesday morning through early Tuesday 
  evening.

* HEAT INDEX VALUES...As high as 100.

* IMPACTS...The heat and humidity may cause heat stress during 
  outdoor exertion or extended exposure.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Heat Advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is
expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity
will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are
possible. Drink plenty of fluids...stay in an air-conditioned
room...stay out of the sun...and check in on relatives and
neighbors.

To reduce risk during outdoor work...the occupational safety and
health administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks
in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by
heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke
is an emergency - call 9 1 1.

&&

$$

NYZ001-006>008-010-011-280700-
/O.CON.KBUF.HT.Y.0009.180828T1600Z-180829T0000Z/
Niagara-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-Northern Erie-Genesee-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Oswego, Watertown, 
Lowville, Buffalo, and Batavia
658 PM EDT Mon Aug 27 2018

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT
TUESDAY...

* LOCATIONS...Niagara, Jefferson, Lewis, Northern Erie, and 
  Genesee counties.

* TIMING...From late Tuesday morning through early Tuesday 
  evening.

* HEAT INDEX VALUES...In the upper 90s.

* IMPACTS...The heat and humidity may cause heat stress during 
  outdoor exertion or extended exposure.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Heat Advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is
expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity
will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are
possible. Drink plenty of fluids...stay in an air-conditioned
room...stay out of the sun...and check in on relatives and
neighbors.

To reduce risk during outdoor work...the occupational safety and
health administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks
in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by
heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke
is an emergency - call 9 1 1.

&&

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this heat advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this heat advisory went out at Aug 26, 10:35 AM EDT, 3 hours 59 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 26, 10:35 AM EDT, 3 hours 59 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1035 AM EDT Sun Aug 26 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak warm front will usher in a noticeably more humid airmass
today. As warmth and humidity continue to increase into the coming
week, isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible, but it
will be mostly dry. Hot and humid conditions will remain with us
through the middle of week. After a cold front late Wednesday with
showers and thunderstorms, the weather turns cooler later this week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
It will be warm and noticeably more humid across the region today...
as a weak warm front will usher in tropical-like air from the Upper
Mid West. Unlike a true warm front though...this one will lack the
baroclinicity and resulting forcing of warmer air riding up over a
cooler one in place. In a sense...the feature will be more of a low
level moisture or dew point boundary. This will limit the amount of
shower and thunderstorm activity...but don't let your guard down.

As was excellently pointed out in a previous discussion...the
passing of this subtle feature will set up a gradient of increasing
instability over the region. As the day progresses and dew points
climb towards 70...SBCAPE values are forecast to climb to between
500-1500 j/kg...with the most unstable air being found across the
Southern Tier. Any convection that does develop will have to do so
in the vicinity of lake breeze boundaries or close to the weakening
'warm front' (Finger Lakes east) and will have to overcome the
presence of a 1-2 deg subsidence inversion. While this cap should
deter any true convection from firing this morning...it is forecast
to weaken during the afternoon and early evening.

Another area to watch will be north of the Thruway between Buffalo
and Rochester where a low level convergence zone should become
established. This should at least keep a persistent area of Cu in
place and could possibly support some brief showers.

That being said...the vast majority of the day should be rain free.
High temperatures will range from the mid 70s on the Tug Hill to the
mid 80s across the lake plains and in the valleys.

Fair dry weather can be expected tonight...as the crest of an
impressive late season 594dm mid level ridge will cross the Lower
Great Lakes. It will be warm and muggy though with temperatures only
forecast to fall to the mid and upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
In a nutshell...the dominant weather feature during this period
will be a strong subtropical upper level ridge...which will
gradually amplify as its core slowly drifts east from the southern
Appalachians on Monday to a position just a little offshore of the
North Carolina coast by Wednesday night. For our area...this feature
will provide a period of heat and high humidity that should last
through most if not all of Wednesday...before it finally gives way
to an approaching broad upper level trough and associated cold front
later Wednesday and/or Wednesday night.

Digging a little deeper into the forecast details...on Monday the
core of the upper ridge will remain nearly stationary over the
Tennessee Valley and Carolinas...while a slowly dampening mid/upper-
level shortwave tracks eastward around its northern periphery.
Compared to yesterday...this feature looks to be a bit weaker and
displaced slightly further to the north...which would result in the
bulk of its forcing passing by to our northwest and primarily
affecting Southern Ontario. At the same time though...its southern
tail still looks to clip our region as it passes by...and this in
tandem with increasing diurnal heating/instability may still be
enough to generate a few additional widely scattered to scattered
showers and thunderstorms...for which a mix of slight chance to
lower-end chance PoPs remains in play. Meanwhile...850 mb temps in
the upper teens Celsius should allow for afternoon highs to reach
into the mid to upper 80s in most areas...and this coupled with
oppressive surface dewpoints of around 70 degrees should yield maximum
apparent temperatures in the lower 90s in many areas...with portions
of the Lower Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes seeing a bit more sun/
slightly higher max temperatures and therefore potentially reaching
lower-end Heat Advisory criteria (which is 95F).

During Monday night the shortwave impulse will slide eastward across
Southern Ontario/Northern New York while bringing the risk for some
additional widely scattered to scattered convection to the Eastern
Lake Ontario Region and Saint Lawrence Valley...before exiting
eastward into Quebec and New England overnight. In its wake...the
upper level ridge will slowly amplify over our region through
Tuesday with attendant subsidence and strengthening mid-level
capping promoting mainly dry weather. The bigger story during this
period will be the continued oppressive heat and humidity...which
(in tandem with the ridging aloft) still looks to peak across our
region on Tuesday. After a downright sultry night Monday night when
lows will struggle to fall below the lower to mid 70s in most
areas...850 mb temps pushing +20C...more in the way of sunshine...
and good low level mixing should allow Tuesday's highs to peak in
the upper 80s to lower 90s...with some spots in the Genesee Valley
and western Finger Lakes potentially even seeing high temperatures
in the mid 90s. In tandem with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower
70s...this should result in apparent temperatures reaching the 95
to 100 degree range across a sizable chunk of our region...and
possibly even breaching 100F from Niagara/Orleans counties eastward
across the Finger Lakes and Oswego county. Should such oppressive
conditions be realized...it would necessitate the issuance of fairly
widespread Heat Advisories.

Tuesday night the core of the upper level ridge will slowly drift
eastward to the Atlantic coastline...while upstream a broad upper
level trough and attendant frontal system/cold front will slowly sag
into the Central Great Lakes. Our region will lie between these two
systems and will therefore remain under the influence of deep
southwesterly flow and continued oppressively warm and humid
conditions...with overnight lows again struggling to fall below
the lower to mid 70s in most areas. Mainly dry weather will also
continue to prevail...with a few migratory weak shortwave impulses
possibly generating some widely scattered to scattered convection
across Lake Ontario and the North Country.

Wednesday and Wednesday night the core of the upper level ridge
will finally drift offshore...which should eventually allow the
broad upstream upper trough and its attendant strong cold front to
sag southeastward and across our region. Owing to the increasingly
delayed departure of the upper ridge and the almost parallel
orientation of the front to the mid and upper level flow...the
medium range guidance continues to rather unsurprisingly trend slower
and slower with the timing of the frontal passage. A rough 00z/26
model consensus now supports a frontal passage between later
Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday evening...though it should be
noted that the GEM and ECMWF are even slower...with these two models
now both depicting a primarily Wednesday night frontal passage. With
all of the above in mind...have slowed down the timing of the front
a little more with this latest forecast package.

The interaction of the front/upper trough with our antecedent very
warm and humid airmass will likely result in a round of showers and
thunderstorms as these features pass through our region...with a
favorably strong wind field aloft offering a conditional risk for
at least a few stronger to severe storm dependent upon the exact
timing of the front and its influence on available instability.
In terms of temperatures...the slower timing of the front should
allow for one more day of oppressive heat and humidity on Wednesday...
when highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s and dewpoints of around 70
could again result in apparent temperatures reaching Heat Advisory
criteria across the Finger Lakes and portions of central New York.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
In the wake of the cold front...high pressure will build across
our region and bring cooler...much less humid...and mainly dry
conditions from Thursday through Saturday. Expect dewpoints to plunge
into the much more comfortable 50s for both Thursday and Friday...while
daytime highs settle back into the 70s. Both will then begin to climb
back upward on Saturday as the high exits eastward across New England
and the Canadian Maritimes...and a southerly return flow of warmer and
somewhat more humid air consequently develops across our region.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Lingering MVFR cigs across much of the region this morning will
gradually lift to VFR levels by midday. While dry weather will
dominate the region, there will still be the risk for a shower or
thunderstorm for sites mainly east of Rochester.

Tonight, VFR conditions should be in place for the majority of the
region. The exception will be across the Southern Tier where the
humid airmass will encourage areas of fog and stratus to develop.
This could lead to IFR conditions at KJHW and KELZ.

Outlook...

Monday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR but with a few low chances of
showers and thunderstorms.
Wednesday...VFR to MVFR with showers and thunderstorms likely.
Thursday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate to occasionally fresh southerlies across the Lower Great
Lakes this morning will keep the highest waves and choppiest
conditions in Canadian waters where wave heights of 4 feet will be
found between Long Point and Crystal Beach on Lake Erie, and in the
vicinity of Point Petre and Duck Island over Lake Ontario. As a weak
warm front dissipates over the region during the midday and
afternoon...winds will veer to the southwest and gradually weaken.
This should keep conditions below small craft advisory criteria for
the U.S waters and the adjacent rivers.

Tonight...a weakening surface pressure gradient will allow winds and
waves to further subside. While winds will freshen somewhat on
Monday...especially on Lake Erie...conditions will remain below
small craft advisory criteria. The only possible issue will be the
minimal risk for thunderstorms.

Looking further ahead to Tuesday...fresh to strong southwesterlies
are forecast to develop over the region. This will likely result in
small craft advisory conditions over both lakes. Strong
thunderstorms will then be likely across the region Wednesday into
Wednesday evening.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RSH/TMA
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH/TMA
MARINE...RSH
Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 26, 4:46 AM EDT, 9 hours 48 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
446 AM EDT Sun Aug 26 2018

NYZ010-012-019>021-085-270900-
Northern Erie-Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
446 AM EDT Sun Aug 26 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Temperatures are forecast to climb into the mid to upper 80s Monday
through Wednesday. The combination of the heat and high humidity
levels could potentially result in apparent temperatures reaching
the mid 90s on Tuesday, when the most uncomfortable conditions are
expected.

A strong cold front is expected to cross the region between
Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night along with some showers
and thunderstorms. Depending upon the exact timing of the frontal
passage, there is a chance that at least a few of the storms could
be strong to severe, with strong gusty winds the primary threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001-002-011-270900-
Niagara-Orleans-Genesee-
446 AM EDT Sun Aug 26 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Temperatures are forecast to climb into the mid 80s to lower 90s
Monday through Wednesday. The combination of the heat and high
humidity levels will result in apparent temperatures potentially
reaching or exceeding the mid 90s Monday and Tuesday, with the
most uncomfortable conditions expected during the day Tuesday.

A strong cold front is expected to cross the region between
Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night along with some showers
and thunderstorms. Depending upon the exact timing of the frontal
passage, there is a chance that at least a few of the storms could
be strong to severe, with strong gusty winds the primary threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ003>006-013-014-270900-
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Livingston-Ontario-
446 AM EDT Sun Aug 26 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Temperatures are forecast to climb into the mid 80s to lower 90s
Monday through Wednesday. The combination of the heat and high
humidity levels will result in apparent temperatures potentially
reaching or exceeding the mid 90s Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday,
with the most uncomfortable conditions expected during the day
Tuesday.

A strong cold front is expected to cross the region between
Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night along with some showers
and thunderstorms. Depending upon the exact timing of the frontal
passage, there is a chance that at least a few of the storms could
be strong to severe, with strong gusty winds the primary threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ007-008-270900-
Jefferson-Lewis-
446 AM EDT Sun Aug 26 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Temperatures are forecast to climb into the mid to upper 80s Monday
through Wednesday. The combination of the heat and high humidity
levels could potentially result in apparent temperatures reaching
the mid to upper 90s on Tuesday, when the most uncomfortable
conditions are expected.

A strong cold front is expected to cross the region between
Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night along with some showers
and thunderstorms. Depending upon the exact timing of the frontal
passage, there is a chance that at least a few of the storms could
be strong to severe, with strong gusty winds the primary threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-270900-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
446 AM EDT Sun Aug 26 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake
Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

A strong cold front is expected to cross the region between
Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night along with some showers
and thunderstorms. Depending upon the exact timing of the frontal
passage, there is a chance that at least a few of the storms could
be strong to severe, with strong gusty winds the primary threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

JJR

Nearby

Heat Advisories in New York, 2018Every heat advisory in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.