Alert archive / New York / Gale Warnings in 2018
Gale Warning 15, NWS Buffalo, NY
NWS Buffalo, NY issued this gale warning at Nov 26, 2018, 9:33 AM EST. It took effect at Nov 26, 2018, 7:00 PM EST. It was in force for 9 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Nov 26, 2018, 9:33 AM EST (14:33 UTC)
- In effect from
- Nov 26, 2018, 7:00 PM EST
- Expired
- Nov 27, 2018, 3:46 AM EST
- In force
- 9 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Buffalo, NY
The text
As transmitted.
096 WHUS71 KBUF 261433 MWWBUF URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 933 AM EST Mon Nov 26 2018 LEZ040-041-262245- /O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0010.181127T0400Z-181127T1700Z/ /O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0015.181127T0400Z-181128T0000Z/ Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo- 933 AM EST Mon Nov 26 2018 ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY... The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Gale Warning, which is in effect from 11 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Tuesday. The Gale Watch is no longer in effect. * WINDS...West to 35 knots. * WAVES...9 to 12 feet. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions. && $$ LEZ061-262245- /O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0015.181127T0000Z-181127T1400Z/ Lake Erie open waters from Ripley to Buffalo- 933 AM EST Mon Nov 26 2018 ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY... The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Gale Warning, which is in effect from 7 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Tuesday. * WINDS...West to 35 knots. * WAVES...10 to 13 feet. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions. && $$ LOZ042-043-262245- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0106.000000T0000Z-181127T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0107.181127T1200Z-181129T1200Z/ Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- 933 AM EST Mon Nov 26 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY... The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Small Craft Advisory, which is in effect from 7 AM Tuesday to 7 AM EST Thursday. * WINDS...West to 30 knots. * WAVES...7 to 10 feet. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should avoid navigating in these conditions. && $$ LEZ020-262245- /O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0107.181127T1200Z-181128T1100Z/ Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor- 933 AM EST Mon Nov 26 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY... The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Small Craft Advisory, which is in effect from 7 AM Tuesday to 6 AM EST Wednesday. * WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should avoid navigating in these conditions. && $$ LOZ044-045-262245- /O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0107.181127T1200Z-181129T1200Z/ Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- 933 AM EST Mon Nov 26 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY... The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Small Craft Advisory, which is in effect from 7 AM Tuesday to 7 AM EST Thursday. * WINDS...Northwest to 30 knots. * WAVES...7 to 10 feet. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should avoid navigating in these conditions. && $$
4 follow-up statements
613 WHUS71 KBUF 262245 MWWBUF URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 545 PM EST Mon Nov 26 2018 LEZ061-270645- /O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0015.181127T0000Z-181127T1400Z/ Lake Erie open waters from Ripley to Buffalo- 545 PM EST Mon Nov 26 2018 ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST TUESDAY... * WINDS...West to 35 knots. * WAVES...10 to 13 feet. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions. && $$ LEZ040-041-270645- /O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0015.181127T0400Z-181128T0000Z/ Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo- 545 PM EST Mon Nov 26 2018 ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY... * WINDS...West to 35 knots. * WAVES...9 to 12 feet. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions. && $$ LOZ042-043-270645- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0106.000000T0000Z-181127T0000Z/ /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0107.181127T1200Z-181129T1200Z/ Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- 545 PM EST Mon Nov 26 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY... * WINDS...West to 30 knots. * WAVES...7 to 10 feet. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should avoid navigating in these conditions. && $$ LEZ020-270645- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0107.181127T1200Z-181128T1100Z/ Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor- 545 PM EST Mon Nov 26 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY... * WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should avoid navigating in these conditions. && $$ LOZ044-045-270645- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0107.181127T1200Z-181129T1200Z/ Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- 545 PM EST Mon Nov 26 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY... * WINDS...Northwest to 30 knots. * WAVES...6 to 9 feet. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should avoid navigating in these conditions. && $$
820 WHUS71 KBUF 270003 MWWBUF URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 703 PM EST Mon Nov 26 2018 LOZ042-043-270815- /O.EXP.KBUF.SC.Y.0106.000000T0000Z-181127T0000Z/ /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0107.181127T1200Z-181129T1200Z/ Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- 703 PM EST Mon Nov 26 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY... * WINDS...Northwest to 30 knots. * WAVES...7 to 10 feet. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should avoid navigating in these conditions. && $$ LEZ061-270815- /O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0015.000000T0000Z-181127T1400Z/ Lake Erie open waters from Ripley to Buffalo- 703 PM EST Mon Nov 26 2018 ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST TUESDAY... * WINDS...West to 35 knots. * WAVES...10 to 13 feet. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions. && $$ LEZ040-041-270815- /O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0015.181127T0400Z-181128T0000Z/ Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo- 703 PM EST Mon Nov 26 2018 ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY... * WINDS...West to 35 knots. * WAVES...9 to 12 feet. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions. && $$ LEZ020-270815- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0107.181127T1200Z-181128T1100Z/ Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor- 703 PM EST Mon Nov 26 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY... * WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should avoid navigating in these conditions. && $$ LOZ044-045-270815- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0107.181127T1200Z-181129T1200Z/ Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- 703 PM EST Mon Nov 26 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY... * WINDS...Northwest to 30 knots. * WAVES...6 to 9 feet. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should avoid navigating in these conditions. && $$
408 WHUS71 KBUF 270506 MWWBUF URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1206 AM EST Tue Nov 27 2018 LEZ061-270615- /O.CAN.KBUF.GL.W.0015.000000T0000Z-181127T1400Z/ Lake Erie open waters from Ripley to Buffalo- 1206 AM EST Tue Nov 27 2018 ...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED... The National Weather Service in Buffalo has cancelled the Gale Warning. $$ LEZ040-041-271315- /O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0015.000000T0000Z-181128T0000Z/ Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo- 1206 AM EST Tue Nov 27 2018 ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WINDS...West to 35 knots. * WAVES...9 to 12 feet. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions. && $$ LEZ020-271315- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0107.181127T1200Z-181128T1100Z/ Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor- 1206 AM EST Tue Nov 27 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY... * WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should avoid navigating in these conditions. && $$ LOZ042>045-271315- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0107.181127T1200Z-181129T1200Z/ Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- 1206 AM EST Tue Nov 27 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY... * WINDS...Northwest to 30 knots. * WAVES...7 to 10 feet. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should avoid navigating in these conditions. && $$
388 WHUS71 KBUF 270846 MWWBUF URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 346 AM EST Tue Nov 27 2018 LEZ040-041-271700- /O.CAN.KBUF.GL.W.0015.000000T0000Z-181128T0000Z/ /O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0107.181127T0846Z-181129T1200Z/ Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo- 346 AM EST Tue Nov 27 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY... ...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED... The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Small Craft Advisory, which is in effect until 7 AM EST Thursday. The Gale Warning has been cancelled. * WINDS...West to 30 knots. * WAVES...6 to 9 feet. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should avoid navigating in these conditions. && $$ LOZ030-271700- /O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0107.181128T0800Z-181129T0000Z/ Lower Niagara River- 346 AM EST Tue Nov 27 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY... The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Small Craft Advisory, which is in effect from 3 AM to 7 PM EST Wednesday. * WINDS...Northwest 15 to 20 knots. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should avoid navigating in these conditions. && $$ LEZ020-271700- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0107.181127T1200Z-181128T1100Z/ Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor- 346 AM EST Tue Nov 27 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY... * WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should avoid navigating in these conditions. && $$ LOZ042>045-271700- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0107.181127T1200Z-181129T1200Z/ Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- 346 AM EST Tue Nov 27 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY... * WINDS...Northwest 20 to 25 knots. * WAVES...6 to 9 feet. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should avoid navigating in these conditions. && $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this gale warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Nov 26, 6:41 AM EST, 2 hours 52 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Nov 26, 6:41 AM EST, 2 hours 52 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
641 AM EST Mon Nov 26 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
A period of rain showers will pass across the region today, with
mild temperatures in the 40s ensuring plain rain through the day. A
surface low will track across the region tonight and cold air behind
an associated cold front will transition the region back to winter,
with rain changing to snow, and bands of lake effect snow forming
off Lake Erie tonight and Lake Ontario by early tomorrow morning.
The lake effect snow may become heavy at times across the higher
terrain southeast of Lake Erie and east of Lake Ontario due to
enhancement from upslope flow and the lakes.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
This morning a surface low is located near northwest OH, with water
vapor imagery displaying an upper level low vertically stacked. Rain
forming within the warm conveyor belt...has reached NW PA and
is now pushing into SW NYS.
Rain is expected to increase across WNY this morning, this as the
warm conveyor belt passes, and convergence increases ahead of a 50
to 60 knot LLJ. This rain will reach areas east of Lake Ontario
around the noontime hour. The initial batch of rain will be forced
by isentropic properties, then after a brief diminishment to the
rain, the rain is expected to again increase late afternoon and
evening ahead of both the surface low and upper level low. Overall
basin average rainfall today and into this evening will range from a
third to two thirds of an inch.
While a nose of warmer air aloft will produce an inversion to limit
the impacts from the 50-60 knot LLJ across WNY, the warm air aloft
will not be as great east of Lake Ontario...and thus the inversion
not as strong. Here a few gusts approaching 45 mph are possible,
including both the higher terrain and through the Black River Valley
towards Fort Drum.
Highs today will be on the mild side, with surface temperatures
reaching into the 40s...which is a few degrees above normal.
As the surface low passes across WNY this evening it will weaken as
a secondary surface low deepens along the New England coastline.
Through the night moist cyclonic flow will continue across our
region, with cold air increasing across the region. This influx of
cold air, (850 hPa temperatures falling to around -5 to -7C) will
transition rain over to wet snow. Precipitation will be highlighted
on upslope areas on a westerly flow, and snow tonight will be
elevation depended...with several inches possible on top of the Tug
Hill Plateau, and western foothills of the Adirondacks...and 3 to 5
inches possible across higher terrain east of Lake Erie. This snow,
initially synoptic...and then lake enhanced late will necessitate
the beginning of a winter storm watch for southern Erie, Wyoming,
Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties. This watch will begin at 10 pm
tonight. Across the Lake Plain surface temperatures will likely
remain above freezing with little to no snow accumulation.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Complex forecast this period. Consolidated surface low near the New
England coast Tuesday will rotate slowly into northern New England
by Wednesday. On the western side of the low, colder air will build
into the area during the day Tuesday. 850 mb temperatures just cold
enough to support snow, especially across the higher terrain.
Favorable moisture profiles, a westerly fetch and upsloping will
maintain steadier snows east of the Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Snow
ratio should be rather inefficient for accumulating snows across
lower elevations, with better ratios across the hills south and
east of Buffalo and over the Tug Hill. Expect 2-3 inches of snow
across higher terrain east of Lake Erie with 3-5 inches
possible on the Tug Hill. Elsewhere, snow showers should only
accumulate an inch or so.
Tuesday night into Wednesday night, thermal profiles do not change
all that much with 850 mb temperatures remaining around -8C.
Boundary layer cooling improves, but it continues to look like
a combination snow event having both a synoptic and lake effect
component with some lake and orographic enhancement. Upslope and
lake components will play a big role with significantly more
snow expected across higher terrain although there should be
some snow accumulation in all areas. Lake enhancement could
bring locally high amounts east of the lakes during this time.
These areas could see localized amounts of up to a foot.
A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect east of Lake Ontario. Greater
forecast confidence has been gained to issue a Winter Storm Watch
east of Lake Erie.
Lake effect snow will continue Wednesday night, but snowfall rates
will diminish. Several inches of new snowfall will be possible
across higher terrain due to upsloping. Snow showers will then
linger Thursday, with only light additional accumulation expected.
This long-term snow event beginning late tonight and lasting into
Wednesday night will likely produce some fairly impressive storm
totals. Due to the marginal thermal profiles, the greatest
amounts should be across higher terrain, but accumulating snows
are likely just about everywhere.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
On Thursday night, stacked low pressure will exit into the Canadian
Maritimes with a weakening northwest flow and diminishing lake
effect snow showers. Most guidance then builds a weak ridge of
surface high pressure across the region Friday. A deep upper level
trough will then dig into the Southern Plains states Friday night,
with surface low pressure developing near Missouri on Saturday. This
low will tap into moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and then
strengthen as it tracks into the Great Lakes region Saturday night.
There may be some rain or snow showers with a frontal boundary ahead
of this low Friday and Saturday, but for the most part model
consensus keeps our region should be rain-free. This system is
likely to bring a soaking rainfall to the region late Saturday night
and Sunday. Model guidance generally agrees there will be a system,
but GFS/GGEM/ECMWF guidance differs on how deep the trough will be
and on the timing. Rain amounts are uncertain this far off, but
amounts in excess of an inch may pose a risk for flooding when
combined with snow melt from the warmer temperatures.
Temperatures will continue to average below normal on Friday and
Saturday with highs mainly in the 30s. A southerly flow on Saturday
night and Sunday will result in warmer temperatures with highs in
the 40s.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
For the 12Z TAFS, VFR flight conditions at the onset will
deteriorate quickly to MVFR/IFR as a period of isentropic rain
showers passes across the region this morning. Aiding in this rain
is a 45 knot LLJ near 2K feet that will bring a brief period of LLWS
to KJHW between 10 and 14Z. The precipitation activity may wane some
this afternoon before picking up again late afternoon/evening as
both the surface low and upper level low nears and low level
convergence and vertical lift increases. Together both the
isentropic rain, and showers associated with the surface low will
maintain a predominately MVFR (So. Tier IFR) flight conditions
through 00Z. After 00Z, and as cold air advects across the Eastern
Great Lakes, rain showers will transition to snow...with activity
picking up in earnest east of Lake Erie late tonight. Expect
IFR/LIFR flight conditions near KJHW late tonight.
Outlook...
Tuesday and Wednesday...MVFR/IFR in snow, heaviest across the
higher terrain east and southeast of the lakes. Snow may mix with
rain at lower elevations.
Thursday...VFR/MVFR, except IFR in lake effect snow showers
southeast of the lakes.
Friday...MVFR with a chance of rain/snow showers.
&&
.MARINE...
A surface low over OH this morning will track across Lake Erie
today, and then weaken over interior WNY as a secondary surface low
develops tonight along the New England coastline.
An easterly flow today on Lake Ontario will increase to 15 to 25
knots, with waves exceeding 4 feet along the shoreline of Lake
Ontario from near Braddock Bay westward. For this reason small craft
advisories will continue on the western waters of Lake Ontario
today. Later today the winds will veer to southeasterly as the
surface low approaches, and this flow will push the higher waves
towards the Canadian waters. The surface low weakening tonight will
then bring a brief period of sub-small craft conditions to Lake
Ontario.
As cold air deepens tonight and a westerly flow increases, winds and
waves will again increase to small craft criteria on both lakes.
There will remain a chance for gale force winds later tonight and
tomorrow on Lake Erie for which a gale watch continues.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday
afternoon for NYZ006>008.
Winter Storm Watch from this evening through Wednesday evening
for NYZ012-019-020-085.
MARINE...Gale Watch from this evening through Tuesday morning for
LEZ040-041.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
LOZ043.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
LOZ042.
&&
SYNOPSIS...Thomas
NEAR TERM...Thomas
SHORT TERM...Apffel/TMA
LONG TERM...Apffel
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...ThomasHazardous weather outlook, Nov 26, 6:28 AM EST, 3 hours 5 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Buffalo NY 628 AM EST Mon Nov 26 2018 NYZ001>005-010-011-013-014-021-271130- Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Northern Erie-Genesee- Livingston-Ontario-Allegany- 628 AM EST Mon Nov 26 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north central New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. There will be a combination of snow from a slow moving low pressure system and lake effect snow at times Tuesday and especially Tuesday night through Wednesday. The potential exists for several inches of snow accumulation, but there remains uncertainty for amounts and locations. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ012-019-020-085-271130- Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie- 628 AM EST Mon Nov 26 2018 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Storm Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Storm Watch. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ006>008-271130- Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis- 628 AM EST Mon Nov 26 2018 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Storm Watch. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf LEZ020-LOZ042>045-062>065-271130- Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- 628 AM EST Mon Nov 26 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf LEZ040-041-271130- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo- 628 AM EST Mon Nov 26 2018 ...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Gale Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Gale Watch. Gale Watch. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf LOZ030-SLZ022-024-271130- Lower Niagara River- Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg- Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis- 628 AM EST Mon Nov 26 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario and Saint Lawrence River. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf
The office that day
Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 26, 9:33 AM EST | Small Craft Advisory | BUF | 3 days | |
| Nov 26, 2:00 PM EST | Winter Storm Warning | BUF | Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Erie, Wyoming | 52 hr |
| Nov 26, 5:53 PM EST | Winter Weather Advisory | BUF | Allegany, Cayuga, Erie, Genesee, Jefferson, Lewis and 7 more | 48 hr |
Nearby
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.