Alert archive / New York / Flood Watches in 2018
Flood Watch 6, NWS Buffalo, NY
NWS Buffalo, NY issued this flood watch at Sep 8, 2018, 3:27 PM EDT for Allegany County, Cattaraugus County, New York. It took effect at Sep 9, 2018, 8:00 PM EDT. It was in force for 8 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Sep 8, 2018, 3:27 PM EDT (19:27 UTC)
- In effect from
- Sep 9, 2018, 8:00 PM EDT
- Expired
- Sep 10, 2018, 3:35 AM EDT
- In force
- 8 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Buffalo, NY
- Flood severity
- None
Counties Allegany County, NY, Cattaraugus County, NY
The radar
The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 83 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:27 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 12:00Z, 7.5 hours before the alert went out and 80 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 941 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 33 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 34 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 120 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
381 WGUS61 KBUF 081927 FFABUF URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Flood Watch National Weather Service Buffalo NY 327 PM EDT Sat Sep 8 2018 ...A long duration rain event expected for the region... The remnants of Tropical Storm Gordon will move from the Upper Mid West to the Lower Great Lakes later Sunday into Monday...and this will result in a relatively long period of moderate to heavy rain over western New York. While the tropically enhanced rain will begin Sunday morning...the steadiest and heaviest rains are not expected until later Sunday afternoon and night. The rain will then taper off as we progress through the day Monday. Rainfall amounts across the Southern Tier will range from two to three...with higher amounts likely south of the Pennsylvania border. This will result in significant rises on area tributaries...with areas of higher rainfall amounts pushing some to bankfull. The risk for flooding may be exacerbated by higher rainfall amounts over the northern tier of Pennsylvania...as some of this rainfall will flow into the Genesee and Allegheny River basins. The main stems of the Allegheny and Genesee Rivers will not crest until well after the rains end on Monday. NYZ020-021-090330- /O.NEW.KBUF.FA.A.0006.180910T0000Z-180911T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Cattaraugus-Allegany- Including the cities of Olean and Wellsville 327 PM EDT Sat Sep 8 2018 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a * Flood Watch for a portion of western New York...including the following counties...Allegany and Cattaraugus. * From Sunday evening through Tuesday morning. * Two to three inches of rain will fall over the region Sunday into Monday, with the steadiest and heaviest rains expected Sunday night. Higher rainfall amounts will be possible. While the heavy rain will end well before Monday evening...it will likely take several hours for the larger basins to crest. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. Stay tuned to weather radio or other radio and tv stations for further details or updates && $$
6 follow-up statements
815 WGUS61 KBUF 090158 FFABUF Flood Watch National Weather Service Buffalo NY 958 PM EDT Sat Sep 8 2018 ...A long duration rain event expected for the region... The remnants of Tropical Storm Gordon will move from the Upper Midwest to the Lower Great Lakes later Sunday into Monday...and this will result in a relatively long period of moderate to heavy rain over western New York. While the tropically enhanced rain may begin over areas toward the Pennsylvania state line Sunday morning...the steadiest and heaviest rains are not expected until later Sunday into Sunday night. The rain will then taper off as we progress through the day on Monday. Rainfall amounts across the Southern Tier will range from two to three inches...with higher amounts likely south of the Pennsylvania border. This will result in significant rises on area tributaries...with areas of higher rainfall amounts pushing some to bankfull. The risk for flooding may be exacerbated by higher rainfall amounts over the northern tier of Pennsylvania...as some of this rainfall will flow into the Genesee and Allegheny River basins. The main stems of the Allegheny and Genesee Rivers will not crest until well after the rains end later Monday. NYZ020-021-091000- /O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0006.180910T0000Z-180911T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Cattaraugus-Allegany- Including the cities of Olean and Wellsville 958 PM EDT Sat Sep 8 2018 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... The Flood Watch continues for * A portion of western New York...including the following counties...Allegany and Cattaraugus. * From Sunday evening through Tuesday morning. * Two to three inches of rain will fall over the region Sunday into Monday, with the steadiest and heaviest rains expected Sunday night. Higher rainfall amounts will be possible. While the heavy rain will end well before Monday evening...it will likely take several hours for the larger basins to crest. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. Stay tuned to weather radio or other radio and tv stations for further details or updates && $$
494 WGUS61 KBUF 090820 FFABUF Flood Watch National Weather Service Buffalo NY 420 AM EDT Sun Sep 9 2018 ...A long duration rain event expected for the region... The remnants of Tropical Storm Gordon will move from the Ohio Valley to the Lower Great Lakes tonight into Monday, and this will result in a relatively long period of moderate to heavy rain over western New York. While the tropically enhanced rain may begin over areas toward the Pennsylvania state line by late this morning, the steadiest and heaviest rains are not expected until tonight through early Monday. The rain will then taper off as we progress through the day on Monday. Rainfall amounts across the Southern Tier will range from 2 to 3 inches, with higher amounts likely south of the Pennsylvania border. This will result in significant rises on area tributaries, with areas of higher rainfall amounts pushing some to bankfull. The risk for flooding may be enhanced by higher rainfall amounts over the northern tier of Pennsylvania, as the Genesee and Allegany Rivers and some tributary streams have headwaters in Pennsylvania. The main stems of the Allegheny and Genesee Rivers will not crest until well after the rain ends later Monday. NYZ020-021-091630- /O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0006.180910T0000Z-180911T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Cattaraugus-Allegany- Including the cities of Olean and Wellsville 420 AM EDT Sun Sep 9 2018 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... The Flood Watch continues for * A portion of western New York...including the following counties...Allegany and Cattaraugus. * From this evening through Tuesday morning. * 2 to 3 inches of rain will fall over the region later today into Monday, with the steadiest and heaviest rains expected tonight. Locally higher rainfall amounts are be possible, especially near the Pennsylvania state line. * Heavy rainfall will result in elevated water levels on small streams and in poor drainage areas, with some minor flooding possible. The Allegheny and Genesee Rivers will also see rising water levels, with a chance of minor flooding lasting well after the steadier rain tapers off. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. Stay tuned to weather radio or other radio and tv stations for further details or updates && $$ Hitchcock
574 WGUS61 KBUF 091251 FFABUF Flood Watch National Weather Service Buffalo NY 851 AM EDT Sun Sep 9 2018 ...A long duration rain event expected for the region... The remnants of Tropical Storm Gordon will move from the Ohio Valley to the Lower Great Lakes tonight into Monday, and this will result in a relatively long period of moderate to heavy rain over western New York. While the tropically enhanced rain may begin over areas toward the Pennsylvania state line by late this morning, the steadiest and heaviest rains are not expected until tonight through early Monday. The rain will then taper off as we progress through the day on Monday. Rainfall amounts across the Southern Tier will range from 2 to 3 inches, with higher amounts likely south of the Pennsylvania border. This will result in significant rises on area tributaries, with areas of higher rainfall amounts pushing some to bankfull. The risk for flooding may be enhanced by higher rainfall amounts over the northern tier of Pennsylvania, as the Genesee and Allegany Rivers and some tributary streams have headwaters in Pennsylvania. The main stems of the Allegheny and Genesee Rivers will not crest until well after the rain ends later Monday. NYZ020-021-092100- /O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0006.180910T0000Z-180911T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Cattaraugus-Allegany- Including the cities of Olean and Wellsville 851 AM EDT Sun Sep 9 2018 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... The Flood Watch continues for * A portion of western New York...including the following counties...Allegany and Cattaraugus. * From 8 PM EDT this evening through Tuesday morning. * 2 to 3 inches of rain will fall over the region later today into Monday, with the steadiest and heaviest rains expected tonight. Locally higher rainfall amounts are be possible, especially near the Pennsylvania state line. * Heavy rainfall will result in elevated water levels on small streams and in poor drainage areas, with some minor flooding possible. The Allegheny and Genesee Rivers will also see rising water levels, with a chance of minor flooding lasting well after the steadier rain tapers off. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. Stay tuned to weather radio or other radio and tv stations for further details or updates && $$ Apffel
893 WGUS61 KBUF 091818 FFABUF Flood Watch National Weather Service Buffalo NY 218 PM EDT Sun Sep 9 2018 ...A long duration rain event expected for the region... The remnants of Tropical Storm Gordon will move from the Ohio Valley to the Lower Great Lakes tonight into Monday, and this will result in a relatively long period of moderate to heavy rain over western New York. While the tropically enhanced rain may begin over areas toward the Pennsylvania state line by late this morning, the steadiest and heaviest rains are not expected until tonight through early Monday. The rain will then taper off as we progress through the day on Monday. Rainfall amounts across the Southern Tier will range from 2 to 2.5 inches, with higher amounts likely south of the Pennsylvania border. This will result in significant rises on area tributaries, with areas of higher rainfall amounts pushing some to bankfull. The risk for flooding may be enhanced by higher rainfall amounts over the northern tier of Pennsylvania, as the Genesee and Allegany Rivers and some tributary streams have headwaters in Pennsylvania. The main stems of the Allegheny and Genesee Rivers will not crest until well after the rain ends later Monday. NYZ020-021-100300- /O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0006.180910T0000Z-180911T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Cattaraugus-Allegany- Including the cities of Olean and Wellsville 218 PM EDT Sun Sep 9 2018 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... The Flood Watch continues for * A portion of western New York...including the following counties...Allegany and Cattaraugus. * From 8 PM EDT this evening through Tuesday morning. * 2 to 2.5 inches of rain will fall over the region later today into Monday, with the steadiest and heaviest rains expected tonight. Locally higher rainfall amounts are be possible, especially near the Pennsylvania state line. * Heavy rainfall will result in elevated water levels on small streams and in poor drainage areas, with some minor flooding possible. The Allegheny and Genesee Rivers will also see rising water levels, with a chance of minor flooding lasting well after the steadier rain tapers off. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. Stay tuned to weather radio or other radio and tv stations for further details or updates && $$
228 WGUS61 KBUF 100129 FFABUF Flood Watch National Weather Service Buffalo NY 929 PM EDT Sun Sep 9 2018 ...A long duration rain event is underway and expected to last through Monday... The remnants of Tropical Storm Gordon will move from the Ohio Valley to the Lower Great Lakes tonight into Monday, and this will result in a relatively long period of moderate to occasionally heavy rain over western New York. Although steady light rain has already moved into the watch area, the heaviest rain rains are not expected until overnight into Monday morning. The rain will then start to taper off as we progress through the afternoon on Monday. Rainfall amounts across the Southern Tier will range from 1.5 to 2.5 inches. This will result in significant rises on area tributaries, with areas of higher rainfall amounts pushing some to bankfull. The risk for flooding may be enhanced by higher rainfall amounts over the northern tier of Pennsylvania, as the Genesee and Allegany Rivers and some tributary streams have headwaters in Pennsylvania. The main stems of the Allegheny and Genesee Rivers will not crest until well after the rain ends Monday night or even early Tuesday. NYZ020-021-101000- /O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0006.000000T0000Z-180911T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Cattaraugus-Allegany- Including the cities of Olean and Wellsville 929 PM EDT Sun Sep 9 2018 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... The Flood Watch continues for * A portion of western New York...including the following counties...Allegany and Cattaraugus. * Through Tuesday morning. * 1.5 to 2.5 inches of rain will fall over the region through Monday with the steadiest and heaviest rains expected overnight into Monday morning. * Heavy rainfall will result in elevated water levels on small streams and in poor drainage areas, with some minor flooding possible. The Allegheny and Genesee Rivers will also see rising water levels, with a chance of minor flooding lasting well after the steadier rain tapers off. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. Stay tuned to weather radio or other radio and tv stations for further details or updates && $$ TMA
416 WGUS61 KBUF 100735 FFABUF Flood Watch National Weather Service Buffalo NY 335 AM EDT Mon Sep 10 2018 NYZ020-021-100845- /O.CAN.KBUF.FA.A.0006.000000T0000Z-180911T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Cattaraugus-Allegany- Including the cities of Olean and Wellsville 335 AM EDT Mon Sep 10 2018 ...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED... The Flood Watch for Cattaraugus and Allegany counties has been cancelled. Rainfall amounts are expected to remain below 2 inches in most areas. This may result in minor ponding of water in poor drainage areas and moderate rises on area streams and rivers, but the potential for flooding is low. $$ Hitchcock
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flood watch went out at Sep 8, 3:14 PM EDT, 13 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Sep 8, 3:14 PM EDT, 13 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
314 PM EDT Sat Sep 8 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
An area of high pressure will maintain fair and cool weather through
tonight, then low pressure near Ohio late Sunday will slowly
track across New York on Monday. A soaking rain will spread
slowly north across Western New York Sunday and continue through
Monday morning before slowly tapering off from west to east
Monday afternoon and evening.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IR satellite imagery shows an expansive shield of dense cirrus
over the area early this afternoon. There will be some breaks of
sunshine across the North Country, but elsewhere the cloud
cover will be dense. The cloud cover combined with a cool
northeasterly flow will result in a relatively chilly afternoon.
Today will be the coolest day we have seen since June, with
highs in the mid to upper 60s at lower elevations and lower 60s
on the hills. It will also be breezy, especially along the south
shores of Lake Ontario where winds will gust to 30 mph.
High pressure over northern Ontario will move east into Quebec
this evening and maintain a northeast low level flow across our
region tonight. A sharp east/west oriented frontal zone will
remain stalled from the lower Ohio Valley to the Mid Atlantic
through this evening, before starting to edge northward later
tonight. Rain ahead of this may just reach the NY/PA state line
late tonight, but model consensus keeps the rest of Western New York
dry. Also, there may be some lake effect rain showers across western
Lake Ontario, but these would be near Hamilton in Canada or across
the open waters.
Satellite trends and high level RH progs suggest high clouds
will continue to stream across most of the area with a temporary thinning
along the northern fringe. It will be quite cool tonight with
lows in the upper 40s for the bulk of Western NY, and lower 50s
along the immediate lakeshores. The North Country will be cooler
with thinner clouds. Expect upper 30s to lower 40s there. The
surface high will be well to the north with winds likely
preventing frost from forming in all but the coldest and most
sheltered valleys in Lewis county.
On Sunday this frontal zone will very slowly lift northward
resulting in rain spreading from south to north. 12Z model guidance
has trended slower with the start time with rain likely to hold off
until at least the afternoon hours for the Buffalo area and mainly
dry weather expected in Rochester on Sunday. Through early Sunday
evening expect fairly negligible rainfall amounts with the exception
of the Southern Tier where a quarter to a half inch of rain is
expected. Temperatures will continue to be on the cool side, with
highs ranging from the upper 50s to upper 60s. The coolest
temperatures will actually be to the south due to thicker cloud
cover and rain with warmer temperatures to the north where there
will be some cloud filtered sunshine.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
...Soaking Rains Will Give Way to Fair Weather...
A tropically enhanced mid level circulation and its associated sfc
reflection will drift from northern Ohio into Lower Michigan Sunday
night...while expansive high pressure will stubbornly hold its
ground over the Canadian maritimes. The gradient between the two
systems will advect copious amounts of sub tropical moisture across
western New York...where a plethora of lifting mechanisms will come
in to play. The position of a 150kt H25 jet over Nova Scotia will
provide significant upper level lift under the jet entrance region
while a 40-50kt low level jet will impinge upon a tightening
baroclinic zone ahead of the aforementioned mid level circulation.
This along with a diffluent flow aloft will provide deep lift to the
troposphere for this event...and with plenty of moisture becoming
available...we can expect widespread steady moderate to occasionally
heavy rain as we progress through Sunday night and Monday.
Since there will initially be a lot of dry air below 15k...the
northeastward advance of the rain shield will be painfully slow.
This should also result in a rather sharp northern edge to the rain.
While the onset will take its time...the tropical nature of the
supporting storm system will result in a deep warm layer (nearly 20k
ft)...so warm rain processes will come into play. The steady rain
will be under way across the Southern Tier as we open this
period...then as the above described forcing spreads north and
east...the corresponding steady rain will advance across the Finger
Lakes to Lake Ontario. As we progress towards daybreak Monday...the
rain will finally begin east of Lake Ontario. Rainfall amounts
Sunday night will range from trace amounts across the North Country
to 1.5 to 2 inches across the Southern Tier.
The slug of sub tropical moisture will gradually move from the
western counties to eastern New York on Monday...with the strong
forcing gradually becoming repositioned to the north and east of our
forecast area in the vicinity of the low level baroclinic zone. This
will result in the heaviest steadiest rain pushing from the western
counties to the Eastern Lake Ontario counties. Thunderstorms were
removed from the forecast in an earlier package...and based on
paltry 3-4 deg c/km lapse rates and negligible elevated CAPE...will
leave the mentioned of convection out of the forecast. That being
said...rainfall amounts on Monday will range from a half inch near
Lake Erie to an inch-inch and a half east of Lake Ontario.
Monday night...the much weakened mid level circulation will get
'picked up' by the stronger northerlies in the northern branch of
the split flow. Meanwhile the bulk of the moisture above 10k ft will
be stripped away from our region. This will leave plenty of low
level moisture over our region...with any residual forcing exiting
the North Country...where steady rains early in the night will add
another half inch to the totals in that region. Pops will plunge
across the forecast area during the course of the night...with the
rains likely ending for the time being over the far western
counties. Overall...the 36 hour rainfall amounts are forecast to
range from an inch and a half near and east of Lake Ontario to
nearly 3 inches near the Pennsylvania border. As a result...have
issued a flood watch for Allegany and Cattaraugus counties where
even heavier rains over Pennsylvania will flow north into the
Genesee and Allegheny basins. This long lived moderate to heavy
rainfall event is typically how those particular basins flood...and
ensembles of hydrologic models suggest that this will be a risk.
On Tuesday...weak high pressure and subtle height rises will move
across our forecast area. While this will encourage fair weather...
one last swath of moisture associated with an exiting shortwave
could support a passing shower or two. After daytime highs in the
60s on Monday...the return to partial sunshine on Tuesday will allow
temps to return to the 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
...A Return to Mid Summer Heat and Humidity...
Generally fair weather can be expected during this period...although
all eyes will certainly be on the progress of Hurricane Florence. As
of the writing of this discussion...there were no medium range
ensembles that were suggesting that Florence would directly impact
our region through this period. Stay tuned though...as there remains
a wide cone of uncertainty with the track and speed of this tropical
system. Meanwhile...a very broad ridge centered over the eastern
half of the country will guarantee above normal temperatures through
the period. Max temps will return to the 80s for the bulk of this
period while dew points will return to the upper 60s/near 70. Summer
isn't done yet.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mainly VFR flight conditions will continue tonight. There will
be extensive high clouds throughout the 18Z TAF cycle with
little impact on flight category. The will be patchy lake
enhanced clouds this afternoon which may result in brief
periods of MVFR conditions south of the lakes.
Rain will slowly spread north into the area on Sunday, reaching
JHW late morning with MVFR conditions likely. Rain will
gradually spread northward Sunday afternoon and evening with
lowering conditions during this time.
Outlook...
Sunday night and Monday...MVFR/IFR in rain.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers.
Wednesday and Thursday...Mainly VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Strong, cool high pressure will build eastward across Quebec through
Sunday. This will maintain moderate to strong northeast winds
on Lakes Ontario and Erie today and tonight, before trending
more easterly on Sunday. Solid Small Craft Advisory conditions
will continue along the south shore of Lake Ontario through
Sunday, and the portion of Lake Erie from about Dunkirk
southwestward.
By Monday low pressure associated with the remnants of Gordon will
move out of the Ohio Valley to near the southern tip of Lake Huron.
Winds on Lakes Erie and Ontario will become more southeasterly. This
will push the greater wave action into Canadian waters, but winds
will remain quite strong and still maintain Small Craft Advisory
conditions despite the offshore flow. Winds will finally diminish
Tuesday morning as the remnants of Gordon move into Quebec and
weaken.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
In general expect a total of 1-2 inches of rain from Buffalo to
Rochester north with 2-3 inches in the western Southern Tier and
upper Genesee Basin. This will be a prolonged moderate to heavy
rainfall event with river flooding the main concern. Current flows
are low, with these rainfall amounts marginally enough to result in
flooding. However, an axis of heavier rainfall will be just to our
south and any northward shift in this would impact river forecasts
significantly. Also, a portion of the headwaters of the Genesee and
Allegheny river extend to our south where there will be more
rainfall.
The main concern is for the Wellsville forecast point on the Genesee
River and Olean and Salamanca forecast points on the Allegheny
River. MMEFS ensembles show a wide range for these points, from no
flooding to moderate flood stage depending on how far north the
heavy rain reaches.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Beach Hazards Statement until 7 PM EDT this evening for
NYZ001>004-019.
Flood Watch from Sunday evening through Tuesday morning for
NYZ020-021.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for LEZ040.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for LOZ030.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for LOZ042-043.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for LOZ044.
&&
SYNOPSIS...Apffel
NEAR TERM...Apffel
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...Apffel
MARINE...Apffel
HYDROLOGY...ApffelHazardous weather outlook, Sep 8, 4:29 AM EDT, 10 hours 58 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Buffalo NY 429 AM EDT Sat Sep 8 2018 NYZ007-008-010>014-085-090830- Jefferson-Lewis-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario- Southern Erie- 429 AM EDT Sat Sep 8 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north central New York. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. There is a marginal risk of flooding from a period of moderate to heavy rainfall from late Sunday through Monday. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected through Monday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ001>004-090830- Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne- 429 AM EDT Sat Sep 8 2018 ...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Beach Hazards Statement. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Beach Hazards Statement. There is a marginal risk of flooding from a period of moderate to heavy rainfall from late Sunday through Monday. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected through Monday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ005-006-090830- Northern Cayuga-Oswego- 429 AM EDT Sat Sep 8 2018 ...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Beach Hazards Statement. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. There is a marginal risk of flooding from a period of moderate to heavy rainfall from late Sunday through Monday. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected through Monday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ020-021-090830- Cattaraugus-Allegany- 429 AM EDT Sat Sep 8 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. There is a slight risk of flooding from a period of moderate to heavy rainfall from late Sunday through Monday. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches, with locally higher amounts, are expected through Monday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ019-090830- Chautauqua- 429 AM EDT Sat Sep 8 2018 ...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Beach Hazards Statement. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. There is a slight risk of flooding from a period of moderate to heavy rainfall from late Sunday through Monday. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches, with locally higher amounts, are expected through Monday. Strong southeast downslope winds are also possible Sunday night through Monday morning, especially along the Lake Erie shore. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-090830- Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo- Lower Niagara River- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg- Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis- 429 AM EDT Sat Sep 8 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf Church
The office that day
Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 7, 10:48 PM EDT | Beach Hazards Statement | BUF | Cayuga, Chautauqua, Monroe, Niagara, Orleans, Oswego and 1 more | 20 hr |
Nearby
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.