Alert archive / New York / Flood Watches in 2018

Flood Watch 6, NWS Buffalo, NY

September 8, 2018Allegany County, Cattaraugus County, New York

NWS Buffalo, NY issued this flood watch at Sep 8, 2018, 3:27 PM EDT for Allegany County, Cattaraugus County, New York. It took effect at Sep 9, 2018, 8:00 PM EDT. It was in force for 8 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Sep 8, 2018, 3:27 PM EDT (19:27 UTC)
In effect from
Sep 9, 2018, 8:00 PM EDT
Expired
Sep 10, 2018, 3:35 AM EDT
In force
8 hr
Issued by
NWS Buffalo, NY
Flood severity
None

Counties Allegany County, NY, Cattaraugus County, NY

The radar

The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 83 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:27 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 12:00Z, 7.5 hours before the alert went out and 80 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 12:00Z on 2018-09-08Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 12:00Z on 2018-09-08The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 34 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
941 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
33 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
34 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
120 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

381 
WGUS61 KBUF 081927
FFABUF

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
327 PM EDT Sat Sep 8 2018

...A long duration rain event expected for the region...

The remnants of Tropical Storm Gordon will move from the Upper Mid
West to the Lower Great Lakes later Sunday into Monday...and this
will result in a relatively long period of moderate to heavy rain
over western New York. While the tropically enhanced rain will
begin Sunday morning...the steadiest and heaviest rains are not
expected until later Sunday afternoon and night. The rain will
then taper off as we progress through the day Monday.

Rainfall amounts across the Southern Tier will range from two to
three...with higher amounts likely south of the Pennsylvania 
border. This will result in significant rises on area
tributaries...with areas of higher rainfall amounts pushing some
to bankfull. The risk for flooding may be exacerbated by higher
rainfall amounts over the northern tier of Pennsylvania...as some
of this rainfall will flow into the Genesee and Allegheny River
basins. The main stems of the Allegheny and Genesee Rivers will
not crest until well after the rains end on Monday.

NYZ020-021-090330-
/O.NEW.KBUF.FA.A.0006.180910T0000Z-180911T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cattaraugus-Allegany-
Including the cities of Olean and Wellsville
327 PM EDT Sat Sep 8 2018

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a

* Flood Watch for a portion of western New York...including the 
  following counties...Allegany and Cattaraugus. 

* From Sunday evening through Tuesday morning.

* Two to three inches of rain will fall over the region Sunday
  into Monday, with the steadiest and heaviest rains expected
  Sunday night. Higher rainfall amounts will be possible. While
  the heavy rain will end well before Monday evening...it will
  likely take several hours for the larger basins to crest.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be
alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to
flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding
develop. Stay tuned to weather radio or other radio and tv
stations for further details or updates

&&

$$
6 follow-up statements
815 
WGUS61 KBUF 090158
FFABUF

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
958 PM EDT Sat Sep 8 2018

...A long duration rain event expected for the region...

The remnants of Tropical Storm Gordon will move from the Upper
Midwest to the Lower Great Lakes later Sunday into Monday...and 
this will result in a relatively long period of moderate to heavy 
rain over western New York. While the tropically enhanced rain 
may begin over areas toward the Pennsylvania state line Sunday 
morning...the steadiest and heaviest rains are not expected until 
later Sunday into Sunday night. The rain will then taper off as 
we progress through the day on Monday.

Rainfall amounts across the Southern Tier will range from two to
three inches...with higher amounts likely south of the 
Pennsylvania border. This will result in significant rises on area
tributaries...with areas of higher rainfall amounts pushing some 
to bankfull. The risk for flooding may be exacerbated by higher 
rainfall amounts over the northern tier of Pennsylvania...as some 
of this rainfall will flow into the Genesee and Allegheny River 
basins. The main stems of the Allegheny and Genesee Rivers will 
not crest until well after the rains end later Monday.

NYZ020-021-091000-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0006.180910T0000Z-180911T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cattaraugus-Allegany-
Including the cities of Olean and Wellsville
958 PM EDT Sat Sep 8 2018

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...

The Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of western New York...including the following 
  counties...Allegany and Cattaraugus. 

* From Sunday evening through Tuesday morning.

* Two to three inches of rain will fall over the region Sunday
  into Monday, with the steadiest and heaviest rains expected
  Sunday night. Higher rainfall amounts will be possible. While
  the heavy rain will end well before Monday evening...it will
  likely take several hours for the larger basins to crest.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be
alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to
flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding
develop. Stay tuned to weather radio or other radio and tv
stations for further details or updates

&&

$$
494 
WGUS61 KBUF 090820
FFABUF

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
420 AM EDT Sun Sep 9 2018

...A long duration rain event expected for the region...

The remnants of Tropical Storm Gordon will move from the Ohio
Valley to the Lower Great Lakes tonight into Monday, and this 
will result in a relatively long period of moderate to heavy rain 
over western New York. While the tropically enhanced rain may 
begin over areas toward the Pennsylvania state line by late this
morning, the steadiest and heaviest rains are not expected until 
tonight through early Monday. The rain will then taper off as we 
progress through the day on Monday.

Rainfall amounts across the Southern Tier will range from 2 to 3 
inches, with higher amounts likely south of the Pennsylvania 
border. This will result in significant rises on area tributaries,
with areas of higher rainfall amounts pushing some to bankfull. 
The risk for flooding may be enhanced by higher rainfall amounts 
over the northern tier of Pennsylvania, as the Genesee and 
Allegany Rivers and some tributary streams have headwaters in 
Pennsylvania. The main stems of the Allegheny and Genesee Rivers 
will not crest until well after the rain ends later Monday.

NYZ020-021-091630-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0006.180910T0000Z-180911T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cattaraugus-Allegany-
Including the cities of Olean and Wellsville
420 AM EDT Sun Sep 9 2018

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...

The Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of western New York...including the following 
  counties...Allegany and Cattaraugus. 

* From this evening through Tuesday morning.

* 2 to 3 inches of rain will fall over the region later today into
  Monday, with the steadiest and heaviest rains expected tonight.
  Locally higher rainfall amounts are be possible, especially near
  the Pennsylvania state line. 

* Heavy rainfall will result in elevated water levels on small
  streams and in poor drainage areas, with some minor flooding
  possible. The Allegheny and Genesee Rivers will also see rising
  water levels, with a chance of minor flooding lasting well after
  the steadier rain tapers off. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be
alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to
flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding
develop. Stay tuned to weather radio or other radio and tv
stations for further details or updates

&&

$$

Hitchcock
574 
WGUS61 KBUF 091251
FFABUF

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
851 AM EDT Sun Sep 9 2018

...A long duration rain event expected for the region...

The remnants of Tropical Storm Gordon will move from the Ohio
Valley to the Lower Great Lakes tonight into Monday, and this
will result in a relatively long period of moderate to heavy rain
over western New York. While the tropically enhanced rain may
begin over areas toward the Pennsylvania state line by late this
morning, the steadiest and heaviest rains are not expected until
tonight through early Monday. The rain will then taper off as we
progress through the day on Monday.

Rainfall amounts across the Southern Tier will range from 2 to
3 inches, with higher amounts likely south of the Pennsylvania
border. This will result in significant rises on area
tributaries, with areas of higher rainfall amounts pushing some
to bankfull. The risk for flooding may be enhanced by higher
rainfall amounts over the northern tier of Pennsylvania, as the
Genesee and Allegany Rivers and some tributary streams have
headwaters in Pennsylvania. The main stems of the Allegheny and
Genesee Rivers will not crest until well after the rain ends
later Monday.

NYZ020-021-092100-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0006.180910T0000Z-180911T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cattaraugus-Allegany-
Including the cities of Olean and Wellsville
851 AM EDT Sun Sep 9 2018

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

The Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of western New York...including the following 
  counties...Allegany and Cattaraugus. 

* From 8 PM EDT this evening through Tuesday morning.

* 2 to 3 inches of rain will fall over the region later today 
  into Monday, with the steadiest and heaviest rains expected 
  tonight. Locally higher rainfall amounts are be possible, 
  especially near the Pennsylvania state line. 

* Heavy rainfall will result in elevated water levels on small 
  streams and in poor drainage areas, with some minor flooding 
  possible. The Allegheny and Genesee Rivers will also see 
  rising water levels, with a chance of minor flooding lasting 
  well after the steadier rain tapers off. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be
alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to
flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding
develop. Stay tuned to weather radio or other radio and tv
stations for further details or updates

&&

$$

Apffel
893 
WGUS61 KBUF 091818
FFABUF

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
218 PM EDT Sun Sep 9 2018

...A long duration rain event expected for the region...

The remnants of Tropical Storm Gordon will move from the Ohio
Valley to the Lower Great Lakes tonight into Monday, and this
will result in a relatively long period of moderate to heavy rain
over western New York. While the tropically enhanced rain may
begin over areas toward the Pennsylvania state line by late this
morning, the steadiest and heaviest rains are not expected until
tonight through early Monday. The rain will then taper off as we
progress through the day on Monday.

Rainfall amounts across the Southern Tier will range from 2 to
2.5 inches, with higher amounts likely south of the Pennsylvania 
border. This will result in significant rises on area tributaries,
with areas of higher rainfall amounts pushing some to bankfull. 
The risk for flooding may be enhanced by higher rainfall amounts 
over the northern tier of Pennsylvania, as the Genesee and 
Allegany Rivers and some tributary streams have headwaters in 
Pennsylvania. The main stems of the Allegheny and Genesee Rivers 
will not crest until well after the rain ends later Monday.

NYZ020-021-100300-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0006.180910T0000Z-180911T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cattaraugus-Allegany-
Including the cities of Olean and Wellsville
218 PM EDT Sun Sep 9 2018

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

The Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of western New York...including the following 
  counties...Allegany and Cattaraugus. 

* From 8 PM EDT this evening through Tuesday morning.

* 2 to 2.5 inches of rain will fall over the region later today 
  into Monday, with the steadiest and heaviest rains expected 
  tonight. Locally higher rainfall amounts are be possible, 
  especially near the Pennsylvania state line. 

* Heavy rainfall will result in elevated water levels on small 
  streams and in poor drainage areas, with some minor flooding 
  possible. The Allegheny and Genesee Rivers will also see 
  rising water levels, with a chance of minor flooding lasting 
  well after the steadier rain tapers off. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be
alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to
flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding
develop. Stay tuned to weather radio or other radio and tv
stations for further details or updates

&&

$$
228 
WGUS61 KBUF 100129
FFABUF

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
929 PM EDT Sun Sep 9 2018

...A long duration rain event is underway and expected to last
through Monday...

The remnants of Tropical Storm Gordon will move from the Ohio
Valley to the Lower Great Lakes tonight into Monday, and this
will result in a relatively long period of moderate to
occasionally heavy rain over western New York. Although steady
light rain has already moved into the watch area, the heaviest 
rain rains are not expected until overnight into Monday morning. 
The rain will then start to taper off as we progress through the 
afternoon on Monday. 

Rainfall amounts across the Southern Tier will range from 1.5 to 
2.5 inches. This will result in significant rises on area 
tributaries, with areas of higher rainfall amounts pushing some to
bankfull. The risk for flooding may be enhanced by higher 
rainfall amounts over the northern tier of Pennsylvania, as the 
Genesee and Allegany Rivers and some tributary streams have 
headwaters in Pennsylvania. The main stems of the Allegheny and 
Genesee Rivers will not crest until well after the rain ends
Monday night or even early Tuesday.

NYZ020-021-101000-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0006.000000T0000Z-180911T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cattaraugus-Allegany-
Including the cities of Olean and Wellsville
929 PM EDT Sun Sep 9 2018

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

The Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of western New York...including the following 
  counties...Allegany and Cattaraugus. 

* Through Tuesday morning.

* 1.5 to 2.5 inches of rain will fall over the region through
  Monday with the steadiest and heaviest rains expected overnight
  into Monday morning. 

* Heavy rainfall will result in elevated water levels on small 
  streams and in poor drainage areas, with some minor flooding 
  possible. The Allegheny and Genesee Rivers will also see 
  rising water levels, with a chance of minor flooding lasting 
  well after the steadier rain tapers off. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be
alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to
flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding
develop. Stay tuned to weather radio or other radio and tv
stations for further details or updates

&&

$$

TMA
416 
WGUS61 KBUF 100735
FFABUF

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
335 AM EDT Mon Sep 10 2018


NYZ020-021-100845-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FA.A.0006.000000T0000Z-180911T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cattaraugus-Allegany-
Including the cities of Olean and Wellsville
335 AM EDT Mon Sep 10 2018

...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Watch for Cattaraugus and Allegany counties has been 
cancelled. Rainfall amounts are expected to remain below 2 inches
in most areas. This may result in minor ponding of water in poor
drainage areas and moderate rises on area streams and rivers, but
the potential for flooding is low.

$$

Hitchcock

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flood watch went out at Sep 8, 3:14 PM EDT, 13 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 8, 3:14 PM EDT, 13 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
314 PM EDT Sat Sep 8 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of high pressure will maintain fair and cool weather through
tonight, then low pressure near Ohio late Sunday will slowly
track across New York on Monday. A soaking rain will spread
slowly north across Western New York Sunday and continue through
Monday morning before slowly tapering off from west to east
Monday afternoon and evening.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IR satellite imagery shows an expansive shield of dense cirrus
over the area early this afternoon. There will be some breaks of
sunshine across the North Country, but elsewhere the cloud
cover will be dense. The cloud cover combined with a cool
northeasterly flow will result in a relatively chilly afternoon.
Today will be the coolest day we have seen since June, with
highs in the mid to upper 60s at lower elevations and lower 60s
on the hills. It will also be breezy, especially along the south
shores of Lake Ontario where winds will gust to 30 mph.

High pressure over northern Ontario will move east into Quebec
this evening and maintain a northeast low level flow across our
region tonight. A sharp east/west oriented frontal zone will
remain stalled from the lower Ohio Valley to the Mid Atlantic
through this evening, before starting to edge northward later
tonight. Rain ahead of this may just reach the NY/PA state line
late tonight, but model consensus keeps the rest of Western New York
dry. Also, there may be some lake effect rain showers across western
Lake Ontario, but these would be near Hamilton in Canada or across
the open waters.

Satellite trends and high level RH progs suggest high clouds
will continue to stream across most of the area with a temporary thinning
along the northern fringe. It will be quite cool tonight with
lows in the upper 40s for the bulk of Western NY, and lower 50s
along the immediate lakeshores. The North Country will be cooler
with thinner clouds. Expect upper 30s to lower 40s there. The
surface high will be well to the north with winds likely
preventing frost from forming in all but the coldest and most
sheltered valleys in Lewis county.

On Sunday this frontal zone will very slowly lift northward
resulting in rain spreading from south to north. 12Z model guidance
has trended slower with the start time with rain likely to hold off
until at least the afternoon hours for the Buffalo area and mainly
dry weather expected in Rochester on Sunday. Through early Sunday
evening expect fairly negligible rainfall amounts with the exception
of the Southern Tier where a quarter to a half inch of rain is
expected. Temperatures will continue to be on the cool side, with
highs ranging from the upper 50s to upper 60s. The coolest
temperatures will actually be to the south due to thicker cloud
cover and rain with warmer temperatures to the north where there
will be some cloud filtered sunshine.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
...Soaking Rains Will Give Way to Fair Weather...

A tropically enhanced mid level circulation and its associated sfc
reflection will drift from northern Ohio into Lower Michigan Sunday
night...while expansive high pressure will stubbornly hold its
ground over the Canadian maritimes. The gradient between the two
systems will advect copious amounts of sub tropical moisture across
western New York...where a plethora of lifting mechanisms will come
in to play. The position of a 150kt H25 jet over Nova Scotia will
provide significant upper level lift under the jet entrance region
while a 40-50kt low level jet will impinge upon a tightening
baroclinic zone ahead of the aforementioned mid level circulation.
This along with a diffluent flow aloft will provide deep lift to the
troposphere for this event...and with plenty of moisture becoming
available...we can expect widespread steady moderate to occasionally
heavy rain as we progress through Sunday night and Monday.

Since there will initially be a lot of dry air below 15k...the
northeastward advance of the rain shield will be painfully slow.
This should also result in a rather sharp northern edge to the rain.
While the onset will take its time...the tropical nature of the
supporting storm system will result in a deep warm layer (nearly 20k
ft)...so warm rain processes will come into play. The steady rain
will be under way across the Southern Tier as we open this
period...then as the above described forcing spreads north and
east...the corresponding steady rain will advance across the Finger
Lakes to Lake Ontario. As we progress towards daybreak Monday...the
rain will finally begin east of Lake Ontario. Rainfall amounts
Sunday night will range from trace amounts across the North Country
to 1.5 to 2 inches across the Southern Tier.

The slug of sub tropical moisture will gradually move from the
western counties to eastern New York on Monday...with the strong
forcing gradually becoming repositioned to the north and east of our
forecast area in the vicinity of the low level baroclinic zone. This
will result in the heaviest steadiest rain pushing from the western
counties to the Eastern Lake Ontario counties. Thunderstorms were
removed from the forecast in an earlier package...and based on
paltry 3-4 deg c/km lapse rates and negligible elevated CAPE...will
leave the mentioned of convection out of the forecast. That being
said...rainfall amounts on Monday will range from a half inch near
Lake Erie to an inch-inch and a half east of Lake Ontario.

Monday night...the much weakened mid level circulation will get
'picked up' by the stronger northerlies in the northern branch of
the split flow. Meanwhile the bulk of the moisture above 10k ft will
be stripped away from our region. This will leave plenty of low
level moisture over our region...with any residual forcing exiting
the North Country...where steady rains early in the night will add
another half inch to the totals in that region. Pops will plunge
across the forecast area during the course of the night...with the
rains likely ending for the time being over the far western
counties. Overall...the 36 hour rainfall amounts are forecast to
range from an inch and a half near and east of Lake Ontario to
nearly 3 inches near the Pennsylvania border. As a result...have
issued a flood watch for Allegany and Cattaraugus counties where
even heavier rains over Pennsylvania will flow north into the
Genesee and Allegheny basins. This long lived moderate to heavy
rainfall event is typically how those particular basins flood...and
ensembles of hydrologic models suggest that this will be a risk.

On Tuesday...weak high pressure and subtle height rises will move
across our forecast area. While this will encourage fair weather...
one last swath of moisture associated with an exiting shortwave
could support a passing shower or two. After daytime highs in the
60s on Monday...the return to partial sunshine on Tuesday will allow
temps to return to the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
...A Return to Mid Summer Heat and Humidity...

Generally fair weather can be expected during this period...although
all eyes will certainly be on the progress of Hurricane Florence. As
of the writing of this discussion...there were no medium range
ensembles that were suggesting that Florence would directly impact
our region through this period. Stay tuned though...as there remains
a wide cone of uncertainty with the track and speed of this tropical
system. Meanwhile...a very broad ridge centered over the eastern
half of the country will guarantee above normal temperatures through
the period. Max temps will return to the 80s for the bulk of this
period while dew points will return to the upper 60s/near 70. Summer
isn't done yet.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mainly VFR flight conditions will continue tonight. There will
be extensive high clouds throughout the 18Z TAF cycle with
little impact on flight category. The will be patchy lake
enhanced clouds this afternoon which may result in brief
periods of MVFR conditions south of the lakes.

Rain will slowly spread north into the area on Sunday, reaching
JHW late morning with MVFR conditions likely. Rain will
gradually spread northward Sunday afternoon and evening with
lowering conditions during this time.

Outlook...

Sunday night and Monday...MVFR/IFR in rain.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers.
Wednesday and Thursday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Strong, cool high pressure will build eastward across Quebec through
Sunday. This will maintain moderate to strong northeast winds
on Lakes Ontario and Erie today and tonight, before trending
more easterly on Sunday. Solid Small Craft Advisory conditions
will continue along the south shore of Lake Ontario through
Sunday, and the portion of Lake Erie from about Dunkirk
southwestward.

By Monday low pressure associated with the remnants of Gordon will
move out of the Ohio Valley to near the southern tip of Lake Huron.
Winds on Lakes Erie and Ontario will become more southeasterly. This
will push the greater wave action into Canadian waters, but winds
will remain quite strong and still maintain Small Craft Advisory
conditions despite the offshore flow. Winds will finally diminish
Tuesday morning as the remnants of Gordon move into Quebec and
weaken.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
In general expect a total of 1-2 inches of rain from Buffalo to
Rochester north with 2-3 inches in the western Southern Tier and
upper Genesee Basin. This will be a prolonged moderate to heavy
rainfall event with river flooding the main concern. Current flows
are low, with these rainfall amounts marginally enough to result in
flooding. However, an axis of heavier rainfall will be just to our
south and any northward shift in this would impact river forecasts
significantly. Also, a portion of the headwaters of the Genesee and
Allegheny river extend to our south where there will be more
rainfall.

The main concern is for the Wellsville forecast point on the Genesee
River and Olean and Salamanca forecast points on the Allegheny
River. MMEFS ensembles show a wide range for these points, from no
flooding to moderate flood stage depending on how far north the
heavy rain reaches.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Beach Hazards Statement until 7 PM EDT this evening for
     NYZ001>004-019.
     Flood Watch from Sunday evening through Tuesday morning for
     NYZ020-021.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for LEZ040.
         Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for LOZ030.
         Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for LOZ042-043.
         Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for LOZ044.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Apffel
NEAR TERM...Apffel
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...Apffel
MARINE...Apffel
HYDROLOGY...Apffel
Hazardous weather outlook, Sep 8, 4:29 AM EDT, 10 hours 58 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
429 AM EDT Sat Sep 8 2018

NYZ007-008-010>014-085-090830-
Jefferson-Lewis-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-
Southern Erie-
429 AM EDT Sat Sep 8 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

There is a marginal risk of flooding from a period of moderate to
heavy rainfall from late Sunday through Monday. Rainfall amounts of 1
to 2 inches are expected through Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001>004-090830-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-
429 AM EDT Sat Sep 8 2018

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Beach Hazards Statement.

There is a marginal risk of flooding from a period of moderate to
heavy rainfall from late Sunday through Monday. Rainfall amounts of 1
to 2 inches are expected through Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ005-006-090830-
Northern Cayuga-Oswego-
429 AM EDT Sat Sep 8 2018

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

There is a marginal risk of flooding from a period of moderate to
heavy rainfall from late Sunday through Monday. Rainfall amounts of 1
to 2 inches are expected through Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ020-021-090830-
Cattaraugus-Allegany-
429 AM EDT Sat Sep 8 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

There is a slight risk of flooding from a period of moderate to
heavy rainfall from late Sunday through Monday. Rainfall amounts of 2
to 3 inches, with locally higher amounts, are expected through
Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ019-090830-
Chautauqua-
429 AM EDT Sat Sep 8 2018

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

There is a slight risk of flooding from a period of moderate to
heavy rainfall from late Sunday through Monday. Rainfall amounts of 2
to 3 inches, with locally higher amounts, are expected through
Monday.

Strong southeast downslope winds are also possible Sunday night
through Monday morning, especially along the Lake Erie shore.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-090830-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
429 AM EDT Sat Sep 8 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake
Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Church

The office that day

Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 7, 10:48 PM EDTBeach Hazards StatementBUFCayuga, Chautauqua, Monroe, Niagara, Orleans, Oswego and 1 more20 hr

Nearby

Flood Watches in New York, 2018Every flood watch in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.