Severe Thunderstorm Warning 38, NWS Burlington, VT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
345 PM EDT Mon Sep 3 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong upper level ridge centered across the mid-Atlantic states
will  keep very warm and humid conditions to the North Country
through Wednesday. We'll be a little cooler and drier on Tuesday
after a weak frontal passage tonight, but the heat returns for
Wednesday with heat indices pushing into the low to mid 90s. A cold
front sliding southward out of Ontario and Quebec will bring a more
widespread chance for showers and thunderstorms on Thursday, and
also bring more seasonable temperatures and lower humidity levels
toward the end of the week, and likely into next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 343 PM EDT Monday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are currently ongoing this afternoon, and precipitation chances
will continue into the evening hours as a weak cold front sags
across the region. Still very hot and humid this afternoon, and
CAPEs are still 1500-2500+ J/kg. The best shear remains along
the international border, hence these areas will still have the
potential to see some strong storms through early evening, with
gusty winds and heavy rainfall the main threats, though can't
rule out some small hail as well. Overall, though just isolated
to scattered showers/thunderstorms are expected. This activity
will wane as we lose daytime heating this evening. The front
will mainly bring a slightly drier, cooler airmass to the region
with high pressure settling in from Canada later tonight.
Dewpoints will drop out of the 70s back into the lower and mid
60s, making it slightly less muggy overnight; lows will be in
the 60s areawide tonight. Patchy valley fog is expected tonight
as we see lingering low-level moisture and light winds under the
subsidence inversion. Dry weather continues on Tuesday with the
high cresting over the region. A weak shortwave will ride along
the top of the upper ridge during the afternoon, but don't
expect much more than increasing clouds owing to the dry air in
place. The cold front, which will settle just to our south
tomorrow, will begin to lift back north as a warm front Tuesday
night. Winds will begin to shift back to the south late, but
temperatures will still be able to drop into the mid 50s in the
mountains/lower to mid 60s in the valleys overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 343 PM EDT Monday...Potential for near record heat still
appears possible on Wednesday. Current forecast of 91 for BTV would
be a daily record. Strong deep- layer high pressure and an eastward
propagating ridge axis will cause 500mb heights to rise to 594dams
across portions of the North Country. 850mb temperature anomalies
will be near 8C above normal with an unseasonably moist airmass in
place. The latest nested NAM and local WRF output indicates clearing
cloud cover during the afternoon. The current forecast could be
conservative if sky cover is clearer. Highs will be in the 80s to
lower 90s across the North Country. With strong ridging in place and
an unfavorable thermodynamic profile, showers and storms will be
hard to come by. Some terrain driven showers could still develop
later in the day, though. Lows will remain well above normal due to
moist, southwest flow. Lows will generally be in the 60s, with the
Champlain Valley likely struggling to get below 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 343 PM EDT Monday... A strong cold front will slowly
shift southward on Thursday as a strong upper trough develops in
Canada while deep- layer ridging begins to weaken and shift
southwards. Some differences in timing and moisture content
remain with the GFS faster and drier, while the ECMWF is a bit
slower and maintains better moisture and dynamics through the
day on Thursday. Better shear still lags behind the best
instability with low-level jet dynamics weakening as the front
pushes across the North Country. Will continue to monitor as we
draw closer, and will continue to offer 30%-60% PoPs.

A welcomed cooling trend will take place with the front to our
south. Dry and seasonable conditions are anticipated for the weekend
with cool surface high pressure to our north. Temperatures will be
in the 60s and 70s for daytime highs. Heading into early next week,
a low pressure system will intensify moving northeast over the Great
Lakes region borrowing moisture from newly formed Tropical Storm
Gordon. This will send the cold front that passes through on Friday
back northward as a warm front. Quite a bit of uncertainty remains
regarding the timing and location of better rainfall early next
week. Also looks like a 40-50kt low-level jet could develop ahead of
the system. Most likely outcome looks to be a wet and windy start to
the next work week.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 18Z Tuesday...VFR conditions will largely prevail
through the much of the period under SCT mid clouds. Storms are
developing across southern Quebec and the Adirondacks in
response to a cold front approaching the international border
along with some other local boundaries, and this activity will
slowly spread southeast through 00z Tuesday. KMSS, KBTV, KPBG,
and KSLK have the best chances of seeing precipitation, and
MVFR/IFR conditions will be possible in any showers/storms.
Otherwise, the only other possible restrictions will come after
06z tonight with patchy fog developing in the favored locations.
IFR/LIFR will be possible 07z-13z at KMPV and KSLK, but not
enough confidence at this time to include in the TAF.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Hastings
SHORT TERM...Haynes
LONG TERM...Haynes
AVIATION...Hastings

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Burlington VT
349 AM EDT Mon Sep 3 2018

NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>012-016>019-040800-
Northern St. Lawrence-Northern Franklin-Eastern Clinton-
Southeastern St. Lawrence-Southern Franklin-Western Clinton-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Southwestern St. Lawrence-Grand Isle-
Western Franklin-Orleans-Essex-Western Chittenden-Lamoille-Caledonia-
Washington-Western Addison-Orange-Western Rutland-Windsor-
Eastern Franklin-Eastern Chittenden-Eastern Addison-Eastern Rutland-
349 AM EDT Mon Sep 3 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern New York, central
Vermont, northeast Vermont, northwest Vermont and southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Potentially dangerous heat and humidity will return to the region
today where heat indices will reach into the low to mid 90s across
the deeper valleys. In addition, scattered showers and thunderstorms
are possible during the afternoon and evening across northern areas,
some of which could be on the strong side.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Another day of dangerous heat and humidity is expected on Wednesday,
with heat advisories possible. A cold front will bring scattered
showers and thunderstorms to the region Wednesday night and Thursday
with cooler and drier conditions expected for Friday into the
weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Burlington VT
508 PM EDT MON SEP 3 2018

VTZ003-004-007-032215-
Essex-Caledonia-Orleans-
508 PM EDT MON SEP 3 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN CALEDONIA...CENTRAL
ORLEANS AND CENTRAL ESSEX COUNTIES...

At 507 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Albany, moving
east at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Island Pond, Lyndon, Orleans, Charleston, Westmore, Orleans Village,
Glover, Brownington, Albany, Brunswick, Burke, Sutton, Barton,
Sheffield, Newark, Newark Hollow, Brownington Village, West Burke
Village, Guildhall and Irasburg.

LAT...LON 4456 7156 4456 7160 4454 7157 4452 7159
      4451 7158 4466 7240 4485 7241 4488 7153
      4482 7157 4479 7157 4475 7163 4468 7160
      4467 7158 4466 7159 4464 7156 4460 7156
      4459 7154
TIME...MOT...LOC 2107Z 274DEG 30KT 4475 7235

RSD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Burlington VT
515 PM EDT MON SEP 3 2018

VTZ010-012-018-019-032200-
Eastern Rutland-Windsor-Eastern Addison-Orange-
515 PM EDT MON SEP 3 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN ORANGE...
SOUTHEASTERN ADDISON...NORTHEASTERN RUTLAND AND NORTHERN WINDSOR
COUNTIES...

At 515 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Randolph,
moving east at 25 mph.

Wind gusts in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Braintree Hill, Tunbridge, Vershire, Sharon, Chelsea, Thetford
Center, Bethel, Randolph, Strafford, Rochester, Norwich, Thetford,
Braintree, Royalton, West Fairlee, Granville, Brookfield, Corinth,
Bradford and Hancock.

LAT...LON 4384 7284 4399 7282 4400 7222 4374 7225
      4373 7226
TIME...MOT...LOC 2115Z 275DEG 17KT 4390 7263

JMG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Burlington VT
548 PM EDT MON SEP 3 2018

NYZ027-028-030-031-032245-
Eastern Clinton-Northern Franklin-Southern Franklin-Western Clinton-
548 PM EDT MON SEP 3 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN CLINTON AND
NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES...

At 548 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Fort Covington,
moving east at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Malone, Burke, Churubusco, Ellenburg Depot, Chateaugay, Ellenburg,
Constable, Earlville, Fort Covington Center, Burke Center, Ellenburg
Mountain, Westville Center, Harrigan, Ellenburg Center, North Burke,
North Bangor and Brainardsville.

LAT...LON 4476 7386 4485 7452 4500 7448 4499 7408
      4500 7375
TIME...MOT...LOC 2148Z 276DEG 32KT 4495 7445

JMG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Burlington VT
612 PM EDT MON SEP 3 2018

VTZ002>004-006>008-016-032300-
Essex-Caledonia-Western Franklin-Washington-Eastern
Franklin-Orleans-Lamoille-
612 PM EDT MON SEP 3 2018

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT LAMOILLE...NORTHERN
CALEDONIA...ORLEANS...NORTHERN ESSEX...NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON AND
SOUTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES...

At 611 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from Coventry to near Fletcher. Movement was
east at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Newport City, Island Pond, Lyndon, Morrisville, Orleans, Derby
Center, Charleston, Johnson Village, Cambridge, Glover, Albany,
Brunswick, Burke, Hyde Park, Greensboro Bend, Belvidere Center,
Newark, Brownington Village, West Burke Village and Waterville.

LAT...LON 4483 7157 4479 7157 4478 7160 4475 7163
      4473 7162 4471 7160 4443 7241 4469 7298
      4501 7206
TIME...MOT...LOC 2211Z 291DEG 29KT 4490 7226 4470 7285

RSD