Severe Thunderstorm Warning 32, NWS Burlington, VT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1018 AM EDT Sat Aug 4 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers will move from southwest to northeast across much of
the North Country through the rest of the night with the
potential for heavy rainfall, mainly across central and southern
Vermont. The bulk of the rainfall will slide east Saturday
morning with just a few linger showers or thunderstorms in the
afternoon. Warm and humid conditions will continue on Saturday
with the potential for a heat wave looming to start the work
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 1018 AM EDT Saturday...Quick update to the morning
forecast to adjust for rain shifting east of the region a little
quicker. Otherwise remainder of the forecast is in good shape,
expecting a few additional isolated showers to pop from mid-day
onward as the parent upper trough skirts along the international
border will lifting northeastward.

Previous Discussion...The upper level trough continues to push
to the east and we'll quickly see the rainfall come to an end
mid morning. Based on the latest satellite images, the upper
level PV anomaly off the Mid-Atlantic has stayed slightly
further east than originally anticipated so that should mean
that we dont see the second wave of rainfall that the NAM12 and
NAM3 were initially hinting at yesterday.

Unfortunately warm and humid conditions will continue across
the region as temps this afternoon creep into the upper 70s to
mid 80s. With dew points still in the mid 60s which is between
5-8 degrees our typical normal low temperature it will feel
quite muggy.

As high pressure builds in this evening we should return to a
slightly quieter period this evening. Mostly clear skies will
combine with light winds to allow for some radiational cooling
in some areas. This should lead to some patchy fog developing
across most of the protected river valleys. Expect lows in the
60s with temps near 70 at locations near Lake Champlain. In the
colder hollows we can anticipate temps likely cooling into the
upper 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 346 AM EDT Saturday...High pressure builds in and we'll
in store for another round of hot and humid conditions. Temps
will warm into the upper 80s to the low 90s for day time highs
so we'll be looking at the potential for another 2018 heat wave.
Without a significant change in airmass its easy to see dew
points still in the mid to upper 60s both Sunday and Monday. So
the combination of temps in the upper 80s to low 90s and
dewpoints in the upper 60s means we'll likely see some heat
index values creeping into the low to mid 90s. Given the heat
advisory criteria of 3 hours of 95+, we will likely need an
advisory for at least Monday and we'll continue to monitor for
the potential tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 357 AM EDT Saturday...Things look to stay fairly
unsettled through the end of next week. The best chances for
rain will be on Tuesday into Wednesday with a cold frontal
passage. The GFS is the most progressive with this boundary,
bringing it across our region Tuesday into Tuesday night, while
the ECMWF and CMC are slower, with the front not clearing the
North Country until Wednesday afternoon. Have stayed with chance
PoPs for this timeframe due to the model differences. Depending
on exact timing of the frontal passage, thunderstorms will be
possible, especially if it occurs during the afternoon. We look
to remain under mainly zonal flow thereafter, with shortwaves
traversing across the area. This will keep the threat of showers
and/or thunderstorms around through the end of the week, though
don't expect any one day to be a washout. We will start out the
period quite warm out ahead of the cold front, with highs in
the mid 80s to lower 90s. There will be a bit of relief once the
front passes (whether it's Tuesday or Wednesday), bringing
daytime temperatures back closer to normal. However, overnight
lows will remain on the mild side, mainly in the 60s to around
70.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 12Z Sunday...Expect periods of VFR, MVFR, and IFR across
the North Country this morning. MPV and RUT will continue to see
light to moderate rainfall through the afternoon. MVFR BR has
formed as the clouds have cleared across northern New York and
the fog at SLK is locked in as dense fog with VLIFR conditions.
Expect with daybreak that should clear up by 14z at the latest
and then VFR is expected through around 06z this evening when
IFR fog is expected again at SLK/MPV with potential fog at
RUT/BTV/MSS as well.

Outlook...

Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 358 AM EDT Friday...A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect
for Rutland and Windsor Counties through noon on Saturday.
Portions across Rutland and Windsor have already picked up
between 0.5 to 1 inch already and could see as much as another 1
to 2 inches of basin- average QPF. 1 hour flash flood guidance
is running in the 1.5 to 2.0 inch range in this area, which
seems reasonable given recent heavy rainfall over the past week.
Indeed antecedent soil moisture conditions are quite wet as
USGS streamflow and SPORT RSM analysis indicate, especially
across the southern portions of these two counties. Further
north, while locally heavy downpours are expected antecedent
conditions in general are drier and as such will be able to
handle our current rainfall forecast.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Deal
NEAR TERM...Deal/Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Deal
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Clay
HYDROLOGY...Evenson/JMG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1004 AM EDT Sat Aug 4 2018

NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>012-016>019-051415-
Northern St. Lawrence-Northern Franklin-Eastern Clinton-
Southeastern St. Lawrence-Southern Franklin-Western Clinton-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Southwestern St. Lawrence-Grand Isle-
Western Franklin-Orleans-Essex-Western Chittenden-Lamoille-Caledonia-
Washington-Western Addison-Orange-Western Rutland-Windsor-
Eastern Franklin-Eastern Chittenden-Eastern Addison-Eastern Rutland-
1004 AM EDT Sat Aug 4 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern New York, central
Vermont, northeast Vermont, northwest Vermont and southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1216 PM EDT SAT AUG 4 2018

NYZ027-028-031-041715-
Eastern Clinton-Northern Franklin-Western Clinton-
1216 PM EDT SAT AUG 4 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN CLINTON COUNTY...

At 1215 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Chateaugay,
moving southeast at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Saranac, Mooers, Altona, Churubusco, Ellenburg Depot, Jericho,
Dannemora, Ellenburg, Irona, Chazy Lake, Sciota, Mooers Forks, Alder
Bend, Cannon Corners, Ellenburg Mountain, Miner Lake State Park,
Harrigan, Ellenburg Center and North Burke.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4492 7346 4463 7371 4483 7401 4489 7401
      4497 7402 4499 7402 4499 7403 4492 7414
      4498 7422 4499 7421 4501 7371
TIME...MOT...LOC 1615Z 309DEG 20KT 4501 7407

Lahiff

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Burlington VT
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 4 2018

NYZ028-035-VTZ005-041900-
Eastern Clinton-Eastern Essex-Western Chittenden-
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 4 2018

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN ESSEX AND
WEST CENTRAL CHITTENDEN COUNTIES...

At 159 PM EDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered over Port Kent,
moving southeast at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
South Burlington, Burlington, Essex, Willsboro, Port Kent,
Keeseville, Shelburne, Charlotte, St. George, Williston, Colchester,
Mcneil Cove, Sloop Island, Shelburne Falls, Wings Point, Meach
Island, Hatch Point, Willsboro Point, Orchard Point and Queneska
Island.

Torrential rainfall and frequent cloud to ground lightning are
occurring with this storm, and may cause localized flooding. Do not
drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. Lightning can strike 10
miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe shelter inside a
building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

If you are on or near Lake Champlain, get out of the water and move
indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to
10 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you
are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter
now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 4460 7338 4459 7338 4456 7336 4457 7333
      4440 7310 4420 7342 4432 7354 4451 7356
      4461 7339
TIME...MOT...LOC 1759Z 325DEG 11KT 4451 7344

Lahiff

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Burlington VT
258 PM EDT SAT AUG 4 2018

NYZ035-VTZ009-018-041930-
Eastern Essex-Western Addison-Eastern Addison-
258 PM EDT SAT AUG 4 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN ADDISON COUNTY...

At 258 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Panton, moving
southeast at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and nickel size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Middlebury, Vergennes, Westport, Cornwall, Weybridge, Waltham, New
Haven, Panton, Addison, Shoreham, D A R State Park, Bridport,
Ferrisburgh, Port Henry, Bristol, Ripton, Fort Cassin Point, Owls
Head Bay, North West Bay and Mud Island.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

If you are on or near Lake Champlain, get out of the water and move
indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to
10 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you
are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter
now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 4386 7330 4411 7351 4415 7352 4426 7335
      4404 7301
TIME...MOT...LOC 1858Z 319DEG 18KT 4415 7338

Lahiff

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Burlington VT
316 PM EDT SAT AUG 4 2018

NYZ034-035-VTZ009-042015-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Addison-
316 PM EDT SAT AUG 4 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN ESSEX AND
SOUTHWESTERN ADDISON COUNTIES...

At 316 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Crown Point
Center, moving southeast at 10 mph.

Locations impacted include...
Crown Point, Crown Point Center, Orwell, Shoreham, Benson Bay, Coates
Point, Black Point, Grass Island, Beadles Cove, Larrabees Point,
Lapham Bay, East Shoreham, Fivemile Point, Chilson, Spar Mill Bay,
Stony Cove, Paradox, Ironville, Mossy Point and Catfish Bay In
Addison County.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4377 7335 4378 7336 4381 7338 4379 7360
      4388 7370 4401 7354 4384 7321 4383 7322
      4381 7321 4376 7329 4375 7336
TIME...MOT...LOC 1916Z 313DEG 8KT 4390 7355

Lahiff

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Burlington VT
335 PM EDT SAT AUG 4 2018

VTZ009-011-018-019-042030-
Western Rutland-Eastern Rutland-Western Addison-Eastern Addison-
335 PM EDT SAT AUG 4 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN ADDISON AND
NORTHWESTERN RUTLAND COUNTIES...

At 334 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Addison, moving
south at 20 mph.

Locations impacted include...
Middlebury, Cornwall, Sudbury, Weybridge, Salisbury, Orwell, Benson,
Whiting, Goshen, West Castleton, Addison, Hubbardton, Shoreham, D A R
State Park, Brandon, Leicester, Bridport, Waltham, Fair Haven and
Pittsford.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with this storm.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4363 7329 4387 7338 4388 7337 4390 7339
      4394 7341 4402 7341 4405 7344 4407 7343
      4413 7323 4378 7293
TIME...MOT...LOC 1934Z 338DEG 17KT 4403 7331

Lahiff