Wind Advisory 14, NWS Brownsville, TX

577 
WWUS74 KBRO 270903
NPWBRO

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
303 AM CST Thu Dec 27 2018

TXZ253>257-353-271015-
/O.EXP.KBRO.WI.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-181227T0900Z/
Southern Hidalgo-Inland Willacy-Inland Cameron-Coastal Willacy-
Coastal Cameron-Northern Hidalgo-
Including the cities of McAllen, Edinburg, Pharr, Mission, 
Weslaco, Raymondville, Brownsville, Harlingen, Port Mansfield, 
Port Isabel, South Padre Island, Laguna Heights, Laguna Vista, 
and San Manuel
303 AM CST Thu Dec 27 2018

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 3 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING...

Winds speeds have decreased below Wind Advisory thresholds across
the region over the last hour. Because of this and a continued 
decrease in winds expected, the Wind Advisory will be allowed to 
expire. Although the Wind Advisory has expired, some wind gusts up
to 30 to 35 mile per hour will still be possible. Travelers are 
urged to remain cautious if driving on east to west highways such
as I2 as well as elevated bridges, causeways, and flyovers. 

$$

Frye

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
602 PM CST Wed Dec 26 2018

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...Strong southeasterly winds will continue the next
several hours this evening with 50 to 55 knot low-level jet noted
at around 2500 feet per the 00Z balloon release at BRO. There
could be an issue with low-level wind shear if surface winds
diminish enough, however, it will likely be less than the 30
knots. Flight conditions will range from MVFR to IFR overnight due
to high low-level moisture ahead of a cold front Thursday morning.
After the front moves through, lighter northerly winds and VFR
conditions will prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 236 PM CST Wed Dec 26 2018/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night): As low pressure works
into the Central Plains from the Desert SW, the pressure gradient
will continue to strengthen, and strong onshore winds will persist
along the lower Texas coast. Moderate to strong southwesterly mid
level flow will help keep temperatures above normal. A weak cold
front will bring much lighter northerly winds on Thursday, kicking
any rain chances east and well off the coast.

The morning sounding showed a significant cap in place, and model
soundings, while quite favorable generally across the board in
convective parameters, continue to show the cap holding through the
night. Will stick to mainly isolated thunder wording in case any
wayward boundary can initiate development this afternoon, or any
ongoing convection works into the CWA overnight into early Thursday,
prior to the front. Best chance, albeit slim, of any development
today would be an isolated thunderstorm or two across the northern
ranchlands or western areas experiencing less cloud cover. SPC has
expanded the slight risk for severe thunderstorms west and north
across Texas, and added an enhanced risk to central and eastern
portions of the state.

Temperatures tonight will range from the upper 50s to the upper 60s
due to some clearing west and low cloud cover south and east. Highs
on Thursday will continue well above normal, into the upper 70s and
low 80s, with steady southwesterly mid level flow and increasing
sunshine west to east. Overall, very comfortable conditions are
expected with lighter northerly winds and low humidity values. Clear
skies, dry air, and light winds will allow temperatures to fall
Thursday night out west into the 40s, while most other locations
range from the low to mid 50s. Some coastal cloud cover and patchy
fog is possible in the lower valley late Thursday night.

LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday): Drier and slightly cooler
air continues to filter into deep south Texas Friday morning as
surface high pressure spreads out across the area. However,
moisture will begin to increase Friday afternoon due to southwest
flow aloft and the formation of a weak coastal surface trough just
offshore. Above normal temperatures are expected to continue
Friday through early Saturday. High temperatures Friday will be in
the mid to upper 70s with increasing cloudiness. Low temperatures
Friday night should range from the mid 50s across the ranchlands
to the mid 60s along the coast. Reinforcing high pressure surges
into deep south Texas on Saturday with temperatures falling during
the late morning into the afternoon. Isolated to scattered
showers will be possible Friday night and Saturday as moisture
continues to increase across the CWA.

Coastal troughing strengthens Saturday night and an overrunning
pattern of drizzle, light rain and colder temperatures will develop
for Saturday night into Monday. Overnight low temperatures Saturday
night will fall in the 40s, followed by near steady high
temperatures on Sunday in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Rain chances
are expected to diminish Monday night into Tuesday as another cold
front arrives. Drier air will begin to filter in from the west late
Monday into Monday night, with the winds increasing from the north
slightly on Tuesday. Coastal troughing will maintain cloudy skies
Tuesday night into Wednesday until a mid level short wave trough
swings through, allowing 500 mb ridging to build over the Southwest
late in the week.

MARINE (Tonight through Thursday Night): The pressure gradient
between high pressure over the Southeastern Gulf of Mexico and low
pressure across the Plains keeps strong southeasterly winds in play
across all coastal waters into tonight. A weak front approaches with
much lighter northerly winds early Thursday, allowing seas to slowly
diminish into Thursday night. Small Craft Advisories are in effect
across all coastal waters, with conditions across the bay beginning
to improve overnight and Gulf of Mexico waters slow to improve
nearshore to offshore Thursday into Thursday evening. Have extended
the SCA across Gulf of Mexico waters through the morning, with
offshore waters likely needing to be extended through the
afternoon.

Friday through Monday night: Light to moderate northeast to east
winds and moderate seas will prevail Friday into Saturday morning as
high pressure settles across the northwest Gulf. The pressure
gradient will tighten by Saturday afternoon as reinforcing high
pressure surges into deep south Texas. This will result in moderate
to strong north winds and building seas. Small craft advisory
conditions will be likely on the Gulf waters, mainly due to elevated
seas, Saturday afternoon through Sunday night. Marine conditions
gradually improve Monday as high pressure settles across the
region.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory for winds until midnight CST tonight for
     GMZ130-132-135.

     Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Thursday for GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

Aviation...65

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
458 PM CST Wed Dec 26 2018

TXZ248>257-351-353-272300-
Zapata-Jim Hogg-Brooks-Inland Kenedy-Starr-Southern Hidalgo-
Inland Willacy-Inland Cameron-Coastal Willacy-Coastal Cameron-
Coastal Kenedy-Northern Hidalgo-
458 PM CST Wed Dec 26 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Deep South
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

There is a high risk of rip currents along area beaches of Deep
South Texas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

There will be an elevated risk of rip currents along area beaches
through Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-272300-
Laguna Madre from the Port of Brownsville to the Arroyo Colorado-
Laguna Madre from the Arroyo Colorado To 5 NM north of Port
Mansfield TX-
Laguna Madre from 5 nm north of Port Mansfield to Baffin Bay TX-
Coastal waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield out 20 nm-
Waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande extending from 20 to
60 nm-
Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield extending from 20 to
60 nm-
458 PM CST Wed Dec 26 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of The Gulf of
Mexico and The Laguna Madre.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A Small Craft Advisory for Winds is in effect for the Laguna
Madre until midnight tonight.

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect until 12 PM Thursday for
adjacent Gulf of Mexico Waters out 60 nautical miles.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect until 12 PM Thursday for
adjacent Gulf of Mexico Waters out 60 nautical miles.

Additional Small Craft Advisories may be needed this weekend due
to increasing winds and building seas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
919 PM CST Wed Dec 26 2018

TXZ250-251-253>257-351-353-270600-
Brooks-Inland Kenedy-Southern Hidalgo-Inland Willacy-
Inland Cameron-Coastal Willacy-Coastal Cameron-Coastal Kenedy-
Northern Hidalgo-
Including the cities of Falfurrias, Sarita, McAllen, Edinburg,
Pharr, Mission, Weslaco, Raymondville, Brownsville, Harlingen,
Port Mansfield, Port Isabel, South Padre Island, Laguna Heights,
Laguna Vista, and San Manuel
919 PM CST Wed Dec 26 2018

...Windy conditions expected to continue through this evening...

A deepening low pressure system moving eastward across North
Texas will maintain a strong pressure gradient across South Texas,
including the Rio Grande Valley. Sustained winds will range from
25 to 30 mph with occasional gusts to 35 to 40 mph, especially
across the coastal counties and the lower Rio Grande Valley.
Conditions should improve after midnight, with winds diminishing
to 15 to 20 mph through the morning.

Strong winds may topple trash cans, patio furniture, and toss
outdoor holiday decorations. Caution is also advised for high
profile vehicles, especially those traveling along east to west
highways such as Interstate 2 or elevated bridges and overpasses.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your local media for further
updates.

CB