Special Weather Statement, NWS Brownsville, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
228 PM CDT Fri May 4 2018

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night): A cold front over south
central Texas will move steadily toward deep south Texas and the
Rio Grande Valley this afternoon through late this evening.
Scattered to numerous showers and isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will be possible along the front. Stronger storms
will slide south over northeast Mexico, but the upper steering
flow could direct some of the deeper storms east along the front
into the county warning area. Convective activity will pick up
across the upper valley, west of U.S. 281 and I-69C, later this
afternoon, and will continue through late this evening, pushing
slowly south and east toward and through the lower valley during
the early morning hours of Saturday. Conditions currently appear
somewhat less favorable for stronger convection over the coastal
counties tonight.

Occasional cloud to ground lightning, strong, gusty winds, small
hail, and isolated locally heavy downpours will be possible late
this afternoon through late this evening, especially across the
ranchlands and brush country, and extending farther south into Starr
and western Hidalgo counties. There is also a very small chance that
a few marginally severe storms could develop, mainly west of U.S.
281 and I-69C, with the threat of strong wind gusts, large hail, and
more frequent cloud to ground lightning. The threat of damaging
winds for the mid and upper valley for tonight is currently assessed
at five percent by the Storm Prediction Center.

In addition, there is currently a slight risk, or between a 10 and
20 percent chance, for inland areas, especially the upper valley,
that rainfall will exceed flash flood guidance tonight. Plentiful
low level moisture, approaching two inches PWAT in the upper valley,
pooled ahead of a potential slowly southward moving frontal boundary
will increase the risk of training and enhanced rainfall from
thunderstorms and moderate to heavy showers. Though rainfall amounts
of up to an inch or two may be fairly typical from a limited number
of storms moving over the area tonight, slow movers and brief, heavy
storms could result in a small chance of locally large amounts
approaching flash flood guidance values in the three to four inch
range.

Light north to east winds will develop on Saturday behind the front
as rain chances end, with seasonal temps in the 80s. Skies will
remain overcast to broken through the day Sat, eventually clearing
from west to east. Saturday night low temps will be in the upper 60s
under ptly cloudy skies. The mid level trough axis will slip farther
offshore, with flow becoming northwest aloft, and with lower rel hum
air pushing into the ranch lands and brush country, if not the lower
valley Saturday night.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday): 500mb ridge across the
southwest United States and a 500mb trough across the southeast
U.S. Sunday will provide subsidence across south Texas the rest
of the weekend into early next week as the upper level ridge moves
eastward across the central U.S. Monday. Low to mid level moisture
will be limited across the CWA through the rest of the forecast
period as a 500mb ridge across Mexico continues to provide
subsidence across the area. At the surface...high pressure across
Texas Monday will move eastward Tuesday allowing an onshore flow
to return. The pressure gradient will increase across the lower
Texas coast Wednesday with low pressure developing across west
Texas. Breezy and very warm conditions will prevail through the
rest of the week as a result.
&&

.MARINE (Now through Saturday night): Light to moderate north to
east winds and low to moderate seas will develop tonight in the
wake of a cold front moving through the area. With the front,
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will move across the
waters tonight. The main threat to mariners will be hazardous,
shower and tstorm related wind gusts.

Sunday through Wednesday...Light north winds will prevail across
the coastal waters Sunday with surface high pressure across the
state. Winds will veer to the east Monday as the surface ridge
moves eastward. Light southeast winds will prevail across the
lower Texas coast Tuesday and increase Tues night as low pressure
across west Texas increases the pressure gradient across the lower
Texas coast. Moderate to strong southeast to south winds will
prevail across the western Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday with
surface high pressure across the northeast Gulf and low pressure
across west Texas.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  73  82  70  82 /  30  30  10   0
BROWNSVILLE          72  85  69  85 /  30  30  10   0
HARLINGEN            71  86  67  87 /  30  30  10   0
MCALLEN              73  88  69  90 /  30  30  10   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      70  84  67  89 /  70  30  10   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   74  78  72  80 /  20  20  10   0
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/61

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
440 AM CDT Fri May 4 2018

TXZ248>257-351-353-050945-
Zapata-Jim Hogg-Brooks-Inland Kenedy-Starr-Southern Hidalgo-
Inland Willacy-Inland Cameron-Coastal Willacy-Coastal Cameron-
Coastal Kenedy-Northern Hidalgo-
440 AM CDT Fri May 4 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Deep South
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a very low probability of a few strong to severe
thunderstorms over portions of Zapata, Jim Hogg and Starr
counties. Main threat will be strong winds and some potential for
large hail.

Slow moving thunderstorms over portions of the Western Ranchlands
and Upper Rio Grande Valley to produce heavy rainfall with
some arroyos nearing bank full and localized flooding streets,
highways and low lying areas.

One or two thunderstorms with gusty winds and heavy rainfall
could move into the Mid Valley and Lower Rio Grande late tonight.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents along area beaches.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-050945-
Laguna Madre from the Port of Brownsville to the Arroyo Colorado-
Laguna Madre from the Arroyo Colorado To 5 NM north of Port
Mansfield TX-
Laguna Madre from 5 nm north of Port Mansfield to Baffin Bay TX-
Coastal waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield out 20 nm-
Waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande extending from 20 to
60 nm-
Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield extending from 20 to
60 nm-
440 AM CDT Fri May 4 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of The Gulf of
Mexico and The Laguna Madre.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
451 PM CDT FRI MAY 4 2018

TXZ252-042230-
Starr TX-
451 PM CDT FRI MAY 4 2018

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 450 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
La Rosita. This storm was nearly stationary.

Winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with this storm in
addition to heavy downpours and lowered visibility.

Locations impacted include...
Rio Grande City, Roma, Escobares, La Rosita, Starr County Memorial
Hospital, Ringgold Middle School, Los Alvarez, Fort Ringgold County
Park, Garceno and Starr County Sheriffs Office.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2649 9899 2650 9877 2633 9879 2637 9880
      2637 9882 2636 9884 2637 9886 2635 9890
      2637 9890 2638 9892 2639 9893 2637 9893
      2637 9895 2638 9896 2639 9895 2640 9896
      2639 9901 2641 9902
TIME...MOT...LOC 2150Z 283DEG 3KT 2641 9893

CB