Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Brownsville, TX

366 
WWUS84 KBRO 111537
RFWBRO

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
937 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

...Critical Fire Weather conditions for portions of Deep South 
Texas this afternoon...

.A dry cold front will move across the region today. Behind the 
front, low relative humidity and strong winds will combine to 
produce critical fire weather conditions.

TXZ248>255-120100-
/O.EXT.KBRO.FW.W.0001.180111T1800Z-180112T0100Z/
Zapata-Jim Hogg-Brooks-Kenedy-Starr-Hidalgo-Inland Willacy-
Inland Cameron-
937 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND STRONG WINDS FOR FIRE WEATHER 
ZONES 248, 249, 250, 251, 252, 253, 254, AND 255...

* AFFECTED AREA...Fire weather zones 248, 249, and 252

* WIND...West to Northwest 20 to 30 mph with frequent higher 
  gusts.

* HUMIDITY...15 to 25 percent.

* IMPACTS...any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means critical fire weather conditions are
occurring now...or will shortly. In general...these conditions
include sustained 20 foot winds of 25 MPH or greater...humidity
ranging from below 25 percent in Zapata County to below
45 percent along the coast...each lasting for 2 hours or longer...
 and cured fuels. Humidity below 25 percent in most areas will
trigger fire danger at lower wind speeds. Detailed decision
tables are found at HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV/?N=MAPCOLORS#FIRE.

&&

$$

457 
WWUS84 KBRO 120110
RFWBRO

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
710 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

...Fire Weather Conditions Improving this Evening...

.Strong northwest winds will continue tonight, but falling
temperatures behind a cold front should allow relative humidity 
values to improve above critical thresholds.

TXZ248>255-120215-
/O.EXP.KBRO.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-180112T0100Z/
Zapata-Jim Hogg-Brooks-Kenedy-Starr-Hidalgo-Inland Willacy-
Inland Cameron-
710 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
AND STRONG WINDS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 248, 249, 250, 251, 252,
253, 254, AND 255...

As temperatures drop tonight, increasing relative humidity values
will increase and allow for gradually improving fire weather 
conditions. Precautions should still be taken the next few hours 
with relatively dry air and strong 20-foot winds continuing.

$$

CB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
412 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

...Windy and Dry Today..

.SHORT TERM (Today through Friday): Moisture is beginning to pool
slightly along or just ahead of our next cold frontal boundary due
into the region in just a few hours. As moisture pools and winds
lighten prior to passage, some patchy fog or low stratus may
develop. Although fog/stratus will be possible, we don't think it
will be as widespread or as dense as Wednesday morning.

As the front pushes through winds will shift northerly with time
and increase. In fact, had to hoist a wind advisory for the entire
CWFA as low level winds increase later this afternoon as 1)
pressure gradient tightens and/or 2) we mix down from around H85
level. Dry conditions along with the strong winds will create
critical fire weather conditions (see more in the fire weather
section below).

Although the frontal boundary will have cleared, much of the area
will experience warming with downslope component in play. In
fact, went well above guidance today with the lower valley hitting
the middle to upper 80s this afternoon.

Winds will eventually begin to lighten from northwest to southeast
later tonight, except for coastal locations where the pressure
gradient should remain. Temperatures overnight will be cooler with
much of the region dropping into the lower to mid 40s in the wake
of the frontal boundary. Less windy Friday expect right along the
immediate coastline early.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday): Surface high pressure
will settle across the region through the weekend. Low temperatures
Friday night and Saturday night are expected to range from the upper
30s across the ranchlands to the mid to upper 40s near the coast.
High temperatures Saturday will be in the 60s with a few locations
reaching 70 degrees. Reinforcing high pressure Sunday may keep highs
in the low to mid 60s. Surface high pressure will move to the east
by early next week and brings the return of southeast winds and Gulf
moisture. Temperatures will recover Sunday night into Monday with
above normal temperatures expected by Monday. A weak coastal trough
may develop on Monday and the approach of another cold front by late
Tuesday will support an increase in rain chances Monday through
Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE:

(Today through Friday): Marine conditions will continue
to gradually decline through the short term. In fact, as a cold
front moves through the region, expect winds to increase up to
gale force at times, especially in gusts for both Gulf Waters and
the Laguna Madre. Hoisted Gale Warnings later tonight. Seas will
increase to as high as 12 feet offshore with only slight
improvement expected by the end of the period.

(Friday night through Monday night): Marine conditions are expected to
improve through the weekend as high pressure settles into the
region. Southeast flow will gradually increase Sunday night and
Monday with Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions developing by
late Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...As a cold frontal boundary slides southward later
this morning, a dry air mass will filter into deep south Texas
this afternoon. RH values around or just below 20 percent along
with wind gusts at times close to 40mph will cause efficient
ignition and spread of fires. With recent freezes and dry
conditions, fuels have cured effectively. For these reasons we did
hoist a Red Flag Warning for much of the region except along the
immediate coastline for Willacy and Cameron. The best window for
critical fire weather conditions will be between noon and sunset.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  81  47  61  45 /  10   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          86  47  64  44 /  10   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            85  45  64  41 /  10   0   0   0
MCALLEN              86  46  66  43 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      83  44  66  40 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   76  51  59  50 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CST this
     evening for TXZ248>255.

     Wind Advisory from noon today to midnight CST tonight for
     TXZ248>250-252-253.

     Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to noon CST Friday for
     TXZ251-254>257.

GM...Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to noon CST Friday for
     GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.

&&

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

Short Term/Fire Weather/Hazards...Frye-55
Long Term...63
Graphicast/Upper Air...56

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
559 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2018

TXZ248>257-120000-
Zapata-Jim Hogg-Brooks-Kenedy-Starr-Hidalgo-Inland Willacy-
Inland Cameron-Coastal Willacy-Coastal Cameron-
559 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Deep South
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Areas of fog, some locally dense, are possible tonight across all
of Deep South Texas with the best chance being in the middle Rio
Grande Valley and across the northern ranchlands of Hidalgo,
Brooks and Jim Hogg counties.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Areas of fog, some locally dense, are possible early Thursday
morning across all of Deep South Texas with the best chance being
in the middle Rio Grande Valley and across the northern
ranchlands of Hidalgo, Brooks and Jim Hogg counties.

An elevated risk of rip currents is possible along area beaches
Thursday through early next week.

A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for Starr, Jim Hogg and Starr
counties from 10 AM CST to 6 PM CST Thursday. Warm, dry and windy
conditions will lead to the danger of the spread of wildfires.

Strong north winds behind a cold front may gust to near 40 mph at
times across the coastal areas of Deep South Texas, possibly
warranting a Wind Advisory Thursday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-120000-
Laguna Madre from the Port of Brownsville to the Arroyo Colorado-
Laguna Madre from the Arroyo Colorado To 5 NM north of Port
Mansfield TX-
Laguna Madre from 5 nm north of Port Mansfield to Baffin Bay TX-
Coastal waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield out 20 nm-
Waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande extending from 20 to
60 nm-
Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield extending from 20 to
60 nm-
559 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of The Gulf of
Mexico and The Laguna Madre.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

A Gale Watch is in effect from 6 PM CST Thursday through 9 AM CST
Friday due to strong north winds behind a front Thursday
afternoon. Winds may gust to 40 to 45 knots at times.

Small Craft Advisories may continue through Friday afternoon and
evening as winds diminish to 20 to 25 knots.

Additional Small Craft Advisories will be possible early next week
with moderate to strong southeast winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.