Alert archive / Connecticut / Winter Weather Advisories in 2018

Winter Weather Advisory 21, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

April 15, 2018Capitol Planning Region, Northeastern Connecticut Planning Region, Connecticut; Kent County, Providence County, Rhode Island; Hampden County, Hampshire County, Massachusetts

NWS Boston/Norton, MA issued this winter weather advisory at Apr 15, 2018, 9:52 AM EDT for Capitol Planning Region, Northeastern Connecticut Planning Region, Connecticut; Kent County, Providence County, Rhode Island; Hampden County, Hampshire County, Massachusetts. It took effect at Apr 15, 2018, 2:00 PM EDT. It was in force for 12 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Apr 15, 2018, 9:52 AM EDT (13:52 UTC)
In effect from
Apr 15, 2018, 2:00 PM EDT
Expired
Apr 16, 2018, 1:56 AM EDT
In force
12 hr
Issued by
NWS Boston/Norton, MA

Counties Capitol Planning Region, CT, Northeastern Connecticut Planning Region, CT, Hampden County, MA, Hampshire County, MA, Kent County, RI, Providence County, RI

The radar

The Boston radar (KBOX), 85 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 13:53 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Brookhaven, NY (KOKX), launched 12:00Z, 1.9 hours before the alert went out and 133 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Brookhaven, NY at 12:00Z on 2018-04-15Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Brookhaven, NY at 12:00Z on 2018-04-15The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 201 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
682 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
49 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
201 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
447 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

905 
WWUS41 KBOX 151352
WSWBOX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
952 AM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018

CTZ002>004-MAZ010-011-152200-
/O.CAN.KBOX.WW.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-180416T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.WW.Y.0021.180415T1800Z-180416T0600Z/
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-Eastern Hampshire MA-
Eastern Hampden MA-
Including the cities of Hartford, Windsor Locks, Union, Vernon, 
Putnam, Willimantic, Amherst, Northampton, and Springfield
952 AM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
2 AM EDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...Sleet and pockets of freezing rain expected. Total ice
  accumulations of a trace to less than one tenth of an inch are 
  expected.

* WHERE...In Connecticut, Hartford CT, Tolland CT and Windham CT 
  Counties. In Massachusetts, Eastern Hampshire MA and Eastern 
  Hampden MA Counties.

* WHEN...From 2 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Monday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The ice may result in areas of slippery
  travel conditions on untreated surfaces.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of freezing rain
will cause travel difficulties. Expect slippery roads. Slow down
and use caution while driving.

&&

$$

RIZ001-003-152200-
/O.CAN.KBOX.WW.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-180416T0100Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.WW.Y.0021.180415T2000Z-180416T0300Z/
Northwest Providence RI-Western Kent RI-
Including the cities of Foster, Smithfield, Coventry, 
and West Greenwich
952 AM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Sleet and pockets of freezing rain expected. Total ice 
  accumulations of a light glaze are expected.

* WHERE...Northwest Providence RI and Western Kent RI Counties.

* WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT this evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The ice may result in areas of slippery
  travel conditions on untreated surfaces.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of freezing rain
will cause travel difficulties. Expect slippery roads. Slow down
and use caution while driving.

&&

$$

MAZ013-015>017-RIZ002-151500-
/O.CAN.KBOX.WW.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-180416T0100Z/
Western Norfolk MA-Suffolk MA-Eastern Norfolk MA-
Northern Bristol MA-Southeast Providence RI-
Including the cities of Foxborough, Norwood, Boston, Quincy, 
Taunton, and Providence
952 AM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

$$

MAZ002>004-008-009-026-152200-
/O.CON.KBOX.WW.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-180416T1200Z/
Western Franklin MA-Eastern Franklin MA-Northern Worcester MA-
Western Hampshire MA-Western Hampden MA-Northern Middlesex MA-
Including the cities of Charlemont, Greenfield, Orange, Barre, 
Fitchburg, Chesterfield, Blandford, and Ayer
952 AM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Sleet and Freezing rain. Total ice accumulations of one 
  tenth to two tenths of an inch are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of central and western Massachusetts.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT Monday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The ice will result in slippery travel 
  conditions, including during the morning commute on Monday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of freezing rain
will cause travel difficulties. Expect slippery roads. Slow down
and use caution while driving.

&&

$$

MAZ005>007-012-014-152200-
/O.CON.KBOX.WW.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-180416T0600Z/
Central Middlesex MA-Western Essex MA-Eastern Essex MA-
Southern Worcester MA-Southeast Middlesex MA-
Including the cities of Framingham, Lowell, Lawrence, Gloucester,
Milford, Worcester, and Cambridge
952 AM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Sleet and Freezing rain. Total ice accumulations of up 
  to one tenth of an inch are expected.

* WHERE...Central Middlesex MA, Western Essex MA, Eastern Essex 
  MA, Southern Worcester MA and Southeast Middlesex MA Counties.

* WHEN...Until 2 AM EDT Monday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The ice will result in areas of slippery
  travel conditions, especially on untreated surfaces.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of freezing rain
will cause travel difficulties. Expect slippery roads. Slow down
and use caution while driving.

&&

$$
3 follow-up statements
836 
WWUS41 KBOX 151913
WSWBOX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
313 PM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018

CTZ002>004-MAZ010-011-160315-
/O.CAN.KBOX.WW.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-180416T0600Z/
/O.EXB.KBOX.WW.Y.0020.180415T2300Z-180416T0600Z/
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-Eastern Hampshire MA-
Eastern Hampden MA-
Including the cities of Hartford, Windsor Locks, Union, Vernon, 
Putnam, Willimantic, Amherst, Northampton, and Springfield
313 PM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
2 AM EDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...Freezing rain. Total ice accumulations of up to one tenth
  of an inch are expected, mainly over the higher elevations.

* WHERE...In Connecticut, Hartford CT, Tolland CT and Windham CT 
  Counties. In Massachusetts, Eastern Hampshire MA and Eastern 
  Hampden MA Counties.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Monday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The ice will result in areas of slippery 
  travel conditions, especially on untreated surfaces.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of freezing rain
will cause travel difficulties. Expect slippery roads. Slow down
and use caution while driving.

&&

$$

RIZ001-003-160315-
/O.EXT.KBOX.WW.Y.0021.180415T2300Z-180416T0600Z/
Northwest Providence RI-Western Kent RI-
Including the cities of Foster, Smithfield, Coventry, 
and West Greenwich
313 PM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...Pockets of freezing rain expected. Total ice
  accumulations around a trace.

* WHERE...Northwest Providence RI and Western Kent RI Counties.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Monday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The ice may result in areas of slippery 
  travel conditions on untreated surfaces.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of freezing rain
will cause travel difficulties. Expect slippery roads. Slow down
and use caution while driving.

&&

$$

MAZ002>004-008-009-026-160315-
/O.CON.KBOX.WW.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-180416T1200Z/
Western Franklin MA-Eastern Franklin MA-Northern Worcester MA-
Western Hampshire MA-Western Hampden MA-Northern Middlesex MA-
Including the cities of Charlemont, Greenfield, Orange, Barre, 
Fitchburg, Chesterfield, Blandford, and Ayer
313 PM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Freezing rain and sleet. Total ice accumulations of one
  tenth to two tenths of an inch are expected, especially over
  higher elevations.

* WHERE...Portions of central and western Massachusetts.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT Monday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The ice will result in slippery travel 
  conditions, including during the morning commute on Monday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of freezing rain
will cause travel difficulties. Expect slippery roads. Slow down
and use caution while driving.

&&

$$

MAZ005>007-012-014-160315-
/O.CON.KBOX.WW.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-180416T0600Z/
Central Middlesex MA-Western Essex MA-Eastern Essex MA-
Southern Worcester MA-Southeast Middlesex MA-
Including the cities of Framingham, Lowell, Lawrence, Gloucester,
Milford, Worcester, and Cambridge
313 PM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Freezing rain mixed with sleet. Total ice accumulations
  of a trace to one tenth of an inch are expected.

* WHERE...Central Middlesex MA, Western Essex MA, Eastern Essex 
  MA, Southern Worcester MA and Southeast Middlesex MA Counties.

* WHEN...Until 2 AM EDT Monday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The ice will result in areas of slippery 
  travel conditions, especially on untreated surfaces.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of freezing rain
will cause travel difficulties. Expect slippery roads. Slow down
and use caution while driving.

&&

$$
761 
WWUS41 KBOX 160209
WSWBOX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1009 PM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018

MAZ002>004-008-009-026-161015-
/O.CON.KBOX.WW.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-180416T1200Z/
Western Franklin MA-Eastern Franklin MA-Northern Worcester MA-
Western Hampshire MA-Western Hampden MA-Northern Middlesex MA-
Including the cities of Charlemont, Greenfield, Orange, Barre, 
Fitchburg, Chesterfield, Blandford, and Ayer
1009 PM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Sleet and freezing rain. Additional ice accumulations of
  up to two tenths of an inch are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of central, eastern and western Massachusetts.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT Monday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The ice will result in slippery travel 
  conditions, including during the morning commute on Monday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of freezing rain
will cause travel difficulties. Expect slippery roads. Slow down
and use caution while driving.

&&

$$

MAZ005>007-012-014-160600-
/O.CON.KBOX.WW.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-180416T0600Z/
Central Middlesex MA-Western Essex MA-Eastern Essex MA-
Southern Worcester MA-Southeast Middlesex MA-
Including the cities of Framingham, Lowell, Lawrence, Gloucester,
Milford, Worcester, and Cambridge
1009 PM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Freezing rain. Additional ice accumulations of a light 
  glaze are expected.

* WHERE...Central Middlesex MA, Western Essex MA, Eastern Essex 
  MA, Southern Worcester MA and Southeast Middlesex MA Counties.

* WHEN...Until 2 AM EDT Monday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The ice will result in very slippery 
  conditions on sidewalks, roads and bridges.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of freezing rain
will cause travel difficulties. Expect slippery roads. Slow down
and use caution while driving.

&&

$$

CTZ002>004-MAZ010-011-160600-
/O.CON.KBOX.WW.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-180416T0600Z/
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-Eastern Hampshire MA-
Eastern Hampden MA-
Including the cities of Hartford, Windsor Locks, Union, Vernon, 
Putnam, Willimantic, Amherst, Northampton, and Springfield
1009 PM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Freezing rain. Additional ice accumulations of around 
  one tenth are expected.

* WHERE...In Connecticut, Hartford CT, Tolland CT and Windham CT 
  Counties. In Massachusetts, Eastern Hampshire MA and Eastern 
  Hampden MA Counties.

* WHEN...Until 2 AM EDT Monday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The ice may result in areas of slippery 
  travel conditions on untreated surfaces.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of freezing rain
will cause travel difficulties. Expect slippery roads. Slow down
and use caution while driving.

&&

$$

RIZ001-003-160600-
/O.CON.KBOX.WW.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-180416T0600Z/
Northwest Providence RI-Western Kent RI-
Including the cities of Foster, Smithfield, Coventry, 
and West Greenwich
1009 PM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Freezing rain. Additional ice accumulations of a light 
  glaze are expected.

* WHERE...Northwest Providence RI and Western Kent RI Counties.

* WHEN...Until 2 AM EDT Monday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The ice will result in very slippery 
  conditions on sidewalks, roads and bridges.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of freezing rain
will cause travel difficulties. Expect slippery roads. Slow down
and use caution while driving.

&&

$$
830 
WWUS41 KBOX 160556
WSWBOX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
156 AM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018


MAZ007-014-160700-
/O.CAN.KBOX.WW.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-180416T0600Z/
Eastern Essex MA-Southeast Middlesex MA-
Including the cities of Gloucester and Cambridge
156 AM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Temperatures have warmed above 32 degrees resulting in mostly rain
as precipitation type. 

$$

RIZ001-003-160700-
/O.CAN.KBOX.WW.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-180416T0600Z/
Northwest Providence RI-Western Kent RI-
Including the cities of Foster, Smithfield, Coventry, 
and West Greenwich
156 AM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Temperatures have warmed above 32 degrees resulting in mostly rain
as precipitation type. 

$$

MAZ002>004-008-009-026-161400-
/O.EXT.KBOX.WW.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-180416T1400Z/
Western Franklin MA-Eastern Franklin MA-Northern Worcester MA-
Western Hampshire MA-Western Hampden MA-Northern Middlesex MA-
Including the cities of Charlemont, Greenfield, Orange, Barre, 
Fitchburg, Chesterfield, Blandford, and Ayer
156 AM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Sleet and freezing rain. Additional ice accumulations of
  one tenth to two tenths of an inch are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of central, eastern and western Massachusetts.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EDT this morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The ice will result in slippery travel
  conditions, including during the morning commute on Monday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of freezing rain
will cause travel difficulties. Expect slippery roads. Slow down
and use caution while driving.

&&

$$

MAZ005-006-012-161200-
/O.EXT.KBOX.WW.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-180416T1200Z/
Central Middlesex MA-Western Essex MA-Southern Worcester MA-
Including the cities of Framingham, Lowell, Lawrence, Milford, 
and Worcester
156 AM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Sleet and freezing rain. Additional ice accumulations of
  around one tenth are expected.

* WHERE...Central Middlesex MA, Western Essex MA and Southern 
  Worcester MA Counties.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT this morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The ice will result in very slippery 
  conditions on sidewalks, roads and bridges.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of freezing rain
will cause travel difficulties. Expect slippery roads. Slow down
and use caution while driving.

&&

$$

CTZ002>004-MAZ010-011-161200-
/O.EXT.KBOX.WW.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-180416T1200Z/
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-Eastern Hampshire MA-
Eastern Hampden MA-
Including the cities of Hartford, Windsor Locks, Union, Vernon, 
Putnam, Willimantic, Amherst, Northampton, and Springfield
156 AM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Sleet and freezing rain. Additional ice accumulations of
  around one tenth are expected.

* WHERE...In Connecticut, Hartford CT, Tolland CT and Windham CT 
  Counties. In Massachusetts, Eastern Hampshire MA and Eastern 
  Hampden MA Counties.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT this morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The ice will result in difficult travel 
  conditions, including during the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of freezing rain
will cause travel difficulties. Expect slippery roads. Slow down
and use caution while driving.

&&

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this winter weather advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Boston/Norton, MA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this winter weather advisory went out at Apr 15, 7:55 AM EDT, 1 hour 57 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Apr 15, 7:55 AM EDT, 1 hour 57 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
755 AM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Quite a chilly day which will be accompanied by periods of
sleet and freezing rain. Low pressure will push across the
region Monday, swinging a front across the region which will
bring rain, locally heavy at times, along with isolated
thunderstorms. Showers will linger into Tuesday across interior
portions of the region. Another low pressure may approach
Thursday, bringing another round of showers. Temperatures will
continue to run below normal early this week, then moderate to
more normal levels later this week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
745 AM Update...

Weak ridge of high pressure and low level dry air has thus far
been sufficient to keep precipitation to our north. Temperatures
were also slightly higher. Once precipitation arrives,
evaporational cooling should permit temperatures to fall
slightly.

Made major updates to the forecast to slow down the timing of
any precipitation this morning. If anything does fall it will
be in the form of very light precip as temp/dewpoint spread
remains large.

Contemplated canceling portions of the Winter Weather Advisory.
A complication will be the arrival of precipitation later this
afternoon, where sleet and or freezing rain would be possible.
Rather than dropping the advisory, only to maybe put it back in
place later, will wait it out a bit longer. The longer we
remain precipitation free, the less likely we would see wintry
precipitation, particularly across the coastal plain of RI and
SE MA.

Previous Discussion...

* Unseasonably cold day with rain, sleet and pockets of freezing
  rain across much of SNE *

Quiet a change of airmass compared to 24 hours ago. High
pressure to the north will continue to push cooler temps into
the region today. In fact, 925 mb temp will fall to about 2 STD
below normal, quite an anomolous airmass. Since highs will reach
in the upper 20s to mid 30s it appears that all of the climate
sites could break their low max temps.

Precipitation chances have been tricky for today. Boundary well
to the south of the region with southerly winds in the mid-
levels will indicate some overrunning precip. However, still a
strong temp/dewpoint spread across the area this morning. BUFKIT
soundings also show that the profile will take its time to
moisten and with PWAT values actually weakening today feel that
on and off showers or just spotty precip will occur.

Since temperatures continue to fall, p-types will vary across
the area. Light rain will occur across areas where the
temperatures are above 32F. However as we go through the day and
temps fall, strong subfreezing layer will establish itself
below 900mb. This will help transition any precip to sleet
despite the strong warm layer at 800mb. One issue to watch is
the lack of ice in the snow growth region, so may have to
contend with drizzle, freezing drizzle or even snizzle. Overall,
appears that a mix bag of wintry precip will occur today, but
more in the way of on and off showers or pockets of precip.

Finally, winds out of the northeast will remain gusty. Strong
enough jet at 925mb and with mixing up to that level expect wind
gusts near 25-35 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
* Wintry Mix will impact the region Tonight

Tonight...

Better chance for precipitation to occur will be this evening
and into tonight. Ridge axis will begin to move offshore as
strong surface low will approach the region from the west. PWAT
values will be on the increase reaching above 1.3 inches (2-3
STD above normal). This combined with strong 850mb jet will help
bring widespread precipitation to the region.

Temperature tonight will be cold to start so any precip that
forms will once again be in the freezing rain/sleet mix. However
surface temperatures will be on the rise thanks to WAA. This
will help transition any wintry precip to more of a rain event
towards dawn. However, the high terrain may take their time to
flip over resulting in wintry precip lingering into the morning.
This could impact the beginning of the morning commute. The WAA
will also help erode the subfreezing layer below 900mb, so
p-types may switch more to freezing rain than sleet before
flipping over to rain. The combination of the high moisture
airmass and good dynamics will bring more QPF to the region.
Thus we could see a light glaze of ice across most of southern
New England with near 0.1-0.25 inches of ice accretion across
the high terrain. Have adjusted the winter weather adv to last
into tonight to account for the potential for ice. This could
result in slippery conditions across elevated areas.

Aside for the temperatures and precip, gusty winds will also be
of concern. Anomolous LLJ at 925mb will increase to 40 kts
towards the morning. Mixing does appear to be somewhat limited,
but with pressure dropping ahead of the surface low and some
heavy precip moving through, we could tap into the jet resulting
in gusts closer to 40 MPH. One area to really watch is
downsloping from the Worcester Hills. A Wind Advisory may be
needed.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Overview...

15/00Z guidance remains in rather good agreement with the
synoptic pattern into Wednesday. Thereafter, differences arise
in their handling of a potent shortwave over the northern
plains, which will have implications on our forecast later this
week. Have above normal confidence in the forecast through
Tuesday, then a moderate confidence in the forecast for Wednesday
and beyond.

Details...

Monday through Wednesday...
Cutoff mid level low will slowly move over the Great Lakes
Monday night, reaching the Maritimes sometime Wednesday. This
will generally keep our region within a synoptic cyclonic flow
aloft. This would support at least a slight risk for periods of
wet weather, depending on available moisture, as well as near to
slightly below normal temperatures.

Main period of wet weather will be Monday into Monday evening. A
triple point low pressure is still expected to move across
southern New England during this time. This will help to enhance
low level convergence, and make rainfall processes more
efficient. Lots of moisture expected to be in place, with
precipitable water values 2-3 standard deviations above normal.

Instability remains marginal, but also persistent, for several
model cycles, now. Maintained the mention of isolated
thunderstorms for Monday.

Significant anomalies with the 925 mb wind, both for advecting
moisture north, as well as colder air from the North Atlantic.
Besides the potential for strong gusts towards the east coast,
thinking temperatures will also struggle to rise much Monday
morning. High temperature MOnday may be later in the day than
usual. Will need to consider a Wind Advisory with later
forecasts. Thinking it is rather marginal at this point. Will
let the next shift get another look.

Drier air in 850-700 mb layer punches into our region from the
SW-NE behind the triple point low and a cold front Monday night.
This should at least cause any remaining rain to taper off for
a time.

As this low lingers across southern Quebec Tuesday-Wednesday,
could see some patchy showers redevelop during the daylight
hours, especially across northern MA. Mid level moisture will
also keep clouds across much of region through part of Tuesday
night.

Anticipate mainly dry conditions on Wednesday, though some
diurnal showers may still develop across the E slopes of the
Berkshires.

Wednesday night through Saturday...
Another fast moving mid level shortwave approaches, along with a
surface low pressure. Timing and track are still the big
questions. Model solutions are converging, but still some wiggle
room in their solutions. At this time, thinking the window for
the greatest risk of showers is Wednesday night into Thursday,
but this could change. Also a possibility showers linger into
Friday, with a mid level trough still to move past our region.
Lower confidence forecast for this timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tonight/...

Today...Moderate confidence. VFR/MVFR with pockets of IFR for
the day. Light wintry mix developing for the interior with a
mix of rain/sleet near the coast. Precip will be on and off. E
gusts 25-30 kt, strongest along the coast.

Tonight...Moderate confidence. Widespread MVFR/IFR. Rain,
sleet, freezing rain trending toward all rain overnight, but
pockets of freezing rain persisting over interior MA. E/NE gusts
20-30 kt, up to 35 kt Cape/Islands. Worcester hills could see
gusts near 40 kts.

KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Spotty wintry
precip today and more widespread impact for the evening push
tonight.

KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Spotty wintry
precip today and more widespread impact for the evening push
tonight.

Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...Moderate confidence.

Monday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Strong winds with
local gusts to 40 kt. RA, FZRA, isolated TSRA, patchy FG.

Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with
local gusts to 30 kt. Chance RA, slight chance SHRA, patchy FG.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight
chance SHRA.

Tuesday Night through Wednesday: VFR. Breezy.

Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tonight/...High confidence.

Increasing NE winds today with gusts 25-35 kt, increasing to
35-45 kts tonight as winds veer to the east. Gale warnings are
in effect. Vsbys reduced at times in rain and fog today, with
lower vsbys possible tonight as fog becomes more widespread.

Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...Moderate Confidence.

Monday: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
45 kt. Rough seas up to 17 ft. Rain, isolated thunderstorms,
patchy fog. Areas of visibility 1 nm or less.

Monday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 16 ft. Chance of rain,
patchy fog. Local visibility 1 nm or less.

Tuesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft.

Tuesday Night through Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas
of rough seas.

Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of
rain showers.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Strong South winds over the west Atlantic Monday will build a
storm surge up to 2 feet that may reach the south coast. This
will need to be monitored for possible minor splashover along
the south coast late Monday night along south facing beaches.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record lowest max temperatures for Sunday April 15
BOS  40 in 1881
PVD  42 in 1972
BDL  41 in 1943
ORH  39 in 1943

Record lowest min temperatures for Sunday April 15
BOS  28 in 1943
PVD  27 in 1923
BDL  24 in 1957
ORH  19 in 1940

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Winter Weather Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for CTZ002>004.
MA...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for MAZ013-
     015>017.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for MAZ005>007-
     010>012-014.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for MAZ002>004-
     008-009-026.
RI...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for
     RIZ001>003.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 PM EDT Monday for ANZ232>235-237-255-256.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Monday for ANZ230-236.
     Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 7 PM EDT Monday for
     ANZ231.
     Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 10 PM EDT Monday for
     ANZ250-251.
     Gale Warning until 10 PM EDT Monday for ANZ254.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Belk/Dunten
NEAR TERM...Belk/Dunten
SHORT TERM...Dunten
LONG TERM...Belk
AVIATION...Belk/Dunten
MARINE...Belk/Dunten
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...Staff
CLIMATE...Staff
Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 15, 4:42 AM EDT, 5 hours 10 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
442 AM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018

MAZ002>004-008-009-026-160845-
Western Franklin MA-Eastern Franklin MA-Northern Worcester MA-
Western Hampshire MA-Western Hampden MA-Northern Middlesex MA-
442 AM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central and western
Massachusetts.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

Bands of heavy rain may cause localized street flooding on Monday.
Strong southerly wind gusts are possible Monday afternoon, especially
across Rhode Island and southeast Massachusetts. There is a risk that
a Wind Advisory may be needed for some of the area.

Rain and snowmelt across the headwaters may result in significant
rises of the Connecticut River during next week, with a risk of
approaching or exceeding flood stage.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MAZ005>007-012-014-160845-
Central Middlesex MA-Western Essex MA-Eastern Essex MA-
Southern Worcester MA-Southeast Middlesex MA-
442 AM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central and northeastern
Massachusetts.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Bands of heavy rain may cause localized street flooding on Monday.
Strong southerly wind gusts are possible Monday afternoon, especially
across Rhode Island and southeast Massachusetts. There is a risk that
a Wind Advisory may be needed for some of the area.

Rain and snowmelt across the headwaters may result in significant
rises of the Connecticut River during next week, with a risk of
approaching or exceeding flood stage.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

CTZ002>004-MAZ010-011-160845-
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-Eastern Hampshire MA-
Eastern Hampden MA-
442 AM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Connecticut and
portions of southwestern Massachusetts.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Bands of heavy rain may cause localized street flooding on Monday.
Strong southerly wind gusts are possible Monday afternoon, especially
across Rhode Island and southeast Massachusetts. There is a risk that
a Wind Advisory may be needed for some of the area.

Rain and snowmelt across the headwaters may result in significant
rises of the Connecticut River during next week, with a risk of
approaching or exceeding flood stage.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MAZ018>024-RIZ004>008-160845-
Western Plymouth MA-Eastern Plymouth MA-Southern Bristol MA-
Southern Plymouth MA-Barnstable MA-Dukes MA-Nantucket MA-
Eastern Kent RI-Bristol RI-Washington RI-Newport RI-Block Island RI-
442 AM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeastern Massachusetts,
and Rhode Island, except for northwestern Rhode Island.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Bands of heavy rain may cause localized street flooding on Monday.
Strong southerly wind gusts are possible Monday afternoon,
especially across Rhode Island and southeast Massachusetts. There is
a risk that a Wind Advisory may be needed for some of the area.

Rain and snowmelt across the headwaters may result in significant
rises of the Connecticut River during next week, with a risk of
approaching or exceeding flood stage.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MAZ013-015>017-RIZ001>003-160845-
Western Norfolk MA-Suffolk MA-Eastern Norfolk MA-Northern Bristol MA-
Northwest Providence RI-Southeast Providence RI-Western Kent RI-
442 AM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern and southeastern
Massachusetts, and northern Rhode Island.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Bands of heavy rain may cause localized street flooding on Monday.
Strong southerly wind gusts are possible Monday afternoon, especially
across Rhode Island and southeast Massachusetts. There is a risk that
a Wind Advisory may be needed for some of the area.

Rain and snowmelt across the headwaters may result in significant
rises of the Connecticut River during next week, with a risk of
approaching or exceeding flood stage.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ232>235-237-255-256-160845-
Nantucket Sound-Vineyard Sound-Buzzards Bay-Rhode Island Sound-
Block Island Sound-
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard and
Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out to
20 nm South of Block Island-
442 AM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Massachusetts southern coastal
waters and Rhode Island coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ254-160845-
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
442 AM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Massachusetts coastal waters
east of Cape Cod.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ250-251-160845-
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank National
Marine Sanctuary-Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
442 AM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 PM EDT
MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Massachusetts eastern outer
coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ230-236-160845-
Boston Harbor-Narragansett Bay-
442 AM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Boston Harbor and Narragansett
Bay

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

There is a risk of southerly gale force gusts across the waters
during Monday late morning and afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ231-160845-
Cape Cod Bay-
442 AM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Cape Cod Bay.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

For the latest updates, please visit our webpage at
www.weather.gov/boston

You can follow us on Facebook at
www.facebook.com/NWSBoston

You can follow us on Twitter at
@NWSBoston

The office that day

Everything else NWS Boston/Norton, MA issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Apr 15, 3:26 PM EDTCoastal Flood AdvisoryBOXEssex, Norfolk, Plymouth, Suffolk23 hr

Nearby

Winter Weather Advisories in Connecticut, 2018Winter Weather Advisories in Rhode Island, 2018Winter Weather Advisories in Massachusetts, 2018Every winter weather advisory in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.