Small Craft Advisory 4, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

411 
WHUS71 KBOX 110155
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Taunton MA
855 PM EST Wed Jan 10 2018

ANZ230-250-251-254-111000-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0004.180111T0400Z-180112T1100Z/
Boston Harbor-
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank
National Marine Sanctuary-Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
855 PM EST Wed Jan 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WINDS AND SEAS...Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 
  30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ231-111000-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0004.180111T1100Z-180111T2100Z/
Cape Cod Bay-
855 PM EST Wed Jan 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM EST
THURSDAY...

* WINDS AND SEAS...Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 
  25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

For the latest updates...please visit our webpage at
www.weather.gov/boston

You can follow us on Facebook at
www.facebook.com/NWSBoston

You can follow us on Twitter at
@NWSBoston

181 
WHUS71 KBOX 110902
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Taunton MA
402 AM EST Thu Jan 11 2018

ANZ230-111715-
/O.CAN.KBOX.SC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-180112T1100Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.GL.A.0003.180112T1500Z-180113T0200Z/
Boston Harbor-
402 AM EST Thu Jan 11 2018

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Taunton has issued a Gale Watch,
which is in effect from Friday morning through Friday evening.
The Small Craft Advisory has been cancelled.

* WINDS AND SEAS...South winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 
  kt. Waves 1 to 2 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased...but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

ANZ251-111715-
/O.CAN.KBOX.SC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-180112T1100Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.GL.A.0003.180112T1500Z-180113T0200Z/
Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
402 AM EST Thu Jan 11 2018

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Taunton has issued a Gale Watch,
which is in effect from Friday morning through Friday evening.
The Small Craft Advisory has been cancelled.

* WINDS AND SEAS...South winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 
  kt. Seas 3 to 6 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased...but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

ANZ254-111715-
/O.CAN.KBOX.SC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-180112T1100Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.GL.A.0003.180112T1500Z-180113T0200Z/
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
402 AM EST Thu Jan 11 2018

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Taunton has issued a Gale Watch,
which is in effect from Friday morning through Friday evening.
The Small Craft Advisory has been cancelled.

* WINDS AND SEAS...South winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 
  kt. Seas 5 to 8 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased...but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

ANZ231-111715-
/O.CAN.KBOX.SC.Y.0004.180111T1100Z-180111T2100Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.GL.A.0003.180112T1500Z-180113T0200Z/
Cape Cod Bay-
402 AM EST Thu Jan 11 2018

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Taunton has issued a Gale Watch,
which is in effect from Friday morning through Friday evening.
The Small Craft Advisory has been cancelled.

* WINDS AND SEAS...South winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 
  kt. Seas 3 to 5 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased...but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

ANZ250-111715-
/O.EXT.KBOX.SC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-180112T1500Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.GL.A.0003.180112T1500Z-180113T0200Z/
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank
National Marine Sanctuary-
402 AM EST Thu Jan 11 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY...
...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Taunton has issued a Gale Watch,
which is in effect from Friday morning through Friday evening.

* WINDS AND SEAS...South winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 
  kt. Seas 5 to 8 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased...but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

ANZ236-111715-
/O.NEW.KBOX.GL.A.0003.180112T1500Z-180113T0200Z/
Narragansett Bay-
402 AM EST Thu Jan 11 2018

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Taunton has issued a Gale Watch,
which is in effect from Friday morning through Friday evening.

* WINDS AND SEAS...South winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt.
  Waves 2 to 4 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased...but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

ANZ232>235-237-111715-
/O.NEW.KBOX.GL.A.0003.180112T1500Z-180113T0200Z/
Nantucket Sound-Vineyard Sound-Buzzards Bay-Rhode Island Sound-
Block Island Sound-
402 AM EST Thu Jan 11 2018

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Taunton has issued a Gale Watch,
which is in effect from Friday morning through Friday evening.

* WINDS AND SEAS...South winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 
  kt. Seas 5 to 8 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased...but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

ANZ255-256-111715-
/O.NEW.KBOX.GL.A.0003.180112T1500Z-180113T0200Z/
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard
and Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out
to 20 nm South of Block Island-
402 AM EST Thu Jan 11 2018

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Taunton has issued a Gale Watch,
which is in effect from Friday morning through Friday evening.

* WINDS AND SEAS...South winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 
  kt. Seas 6 to 11 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased...but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

Frank

For the latest updates...please visit our webpage at
www.weather.gov/boston

You can follow us on Facebook at
www.facebook.com/NWSBoston

You can follow us on Twitter at
@NWSBoston

593 
WHUS71 KBOX 111430
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Taunton MA
930 AM EST Thu Jan 11 2018

ANZ250-112230-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-180112T1500Z/
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.A.0003.180112T1500Z-180113T0200Z/
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank
National Marine Sanctuary-
930 AM EST Thu Jan 11 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
FRIDAY...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...South winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 
  kt. Seas 5 to 8 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased...but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

ANZ230-236-112230-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.A.0003.180112T1500Z-180113T0200Z/
Boston Harbor-Narragansett Bay-
930 AM EST Thu Jan 11 2018

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...South winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 
  kt. Waves 2 to 4 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased...but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

ANZ231>235-237-251-112230-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.A.0003.180112T1500Z-180113T0200Z/
Cape Cod Bay-Nantucket Sound-Vineyard Sound-Buzzards Bay-
Rhode Island Sound-Block Island Sound-
Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
930 AM EST Thu Jan 11 2018

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...South winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 
  kt. Seas 4 to 7 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased...but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

ANZ254>256-112230-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.A.0003.180112T1500Z-180113T0200Z/
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard
and Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out
to 20 nm South of Block Island-
930 AM EST Thu Jan 11 2018

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...South winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 
  kt. Seas 6 to 11 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased...but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

For the latest updates...please visit our webpage at
www.weather.gov/boston

You can follow us on Facebook at
www.facebook.com/NWSBoston

You can follow us on Twitter at
@NWSBoston

390 
WHUS71 KBOX 112107
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Taunton MA
407 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2018

ANZ250-120515-
/O.CAN.KBOX.SC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-180112T1500Z/
/O.EXT.KBOX.GL.A.0003.180112T1700Z-180113T0400Z/
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank
National Marine Sanctuary-
407 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2018

...GALE WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Taunton has cancelled the Small
Craft Advisory.

* WINDS AND SEAS...South winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 
  kt. Seas 7 to 10 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased...but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

ANZ235-237-120515-
/O.UPG.KBOX.GL.A.0003.180112T1500Z-180113T0200Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.SC.Y.0005.180112T0800Z-180113T1200Z/
Rhode Island Sound-Block Island Sound-
407 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST
SATURDAY...

The National Weather Service in Taunton has issued a Small Craft
Advisory, which is in effect from 3 AM Friday to 7 AM EST
Saturday. The Gale Watch is no longer in effect.

* WINDS AND SEAS...South winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 
  kt. Seas 7 to 12 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ254>256-120515-
/O.UPG.KBOX.GL.A.0003.180112T1500Z-180113T0200Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.SC.Y.0005.180112T0800Z-180113T1200Z/
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard
and Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out
to 20 nm South of Block Island-
407 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST
SATURDAY...

The National Weather Service in Taunton has issued a Small Craft
Advisory, which is in effect from 3 AM Friday to 7 AM EST
Saturday. The Gale Watch is no longer in effect.

* WINDS AND SEAS...South winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 
  kt. Seas 8 to 13 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ230-236-120515-
/O.EXT.KBOX.GL.A.0003.180112T1700Z-180113T0400Z/
Boston Harbor-Narragansett Bay-
407 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2018

...GALE WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...South winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 
  kt. Waves 3 to 6 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased...but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

ANZ231>234-120515-
/O.EXT.KBOX.GL.A.0003.180112T1700Z-180113T0400Z/
Cape Cod Bay-Nantucket Sound-Vineyard Sound-Buzzards Bay-
407 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2018

...GALE WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...South winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 
  kt. Seas 3 to 6 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased...but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

ANZ251-120515-
/O.EXT.KBOX.GL.A.0003.180112T1700Z-180113T0400Z/
Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
407 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2018

...GALE WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...South winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 
  kt. Seas 3 to 5 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased...but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

For the latest updates...please visit our webpage at
www.weather.gov/boston

You can follow us on Facebook at
www.facebook.com/NWSBoston

You can follow us on Twitter at
@NWSBoston

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
359 PM EST Wed Jan 10 2018

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure moves east of the region today and tonight bringing
milder weather on Thursday. Unseasonably mild temperatures are
anticipated Friday into Friday night along with periods of heavy
rain, breezy winds, and the potential for flooding. The rain
may end as freezing rain across the interior on Saturday if the
much colder air arrives before the precipitation ends. Dry and
very cold weather is favored Sunday into Monday. A winter weather
system is possible by midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

Large high pressure will continue to move east of our region
today. Light and variable winds will eventually become light
south winds by late today.

Only minor tweaks to the forecast early this afternoon to
reflect observed trends.

Strong warm air advection in the lower level begins in earnest
tonight. Increasing clouds mid and high level clouds, especially
across the western two-thirds of southern New England. With 925
mb winds expected to increase to 35-45 kt toward midnight,
expecting minimum temperatures to be rather early tonight, then
remain nearly steady or slowly rise after midnight. Minimum
temperatures currently forecast to be about 10 degrees above
normal.

The other issue with the strong warm air advection will be the
possibility for some overrunning precipitation this evening and
overnight. There is a window this evening towards NW MA for
period of spotty freezing drizzle. The majority of the forcing
and deeper moisture appear to be just to the NW of our area.
Thinking coverage is not going to be widespread enough to issue
a Winter Weather Advisory at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

Very mild weather by mid January standards expected Thursday
and Thursday night, with readings at least 15 degrees above
normal through this period. Expecting continual snowmelt during
this time, which will begin to set the stage for a flooding
threat later this week. Areas of fog also expected, some of
which may be fairly dense, especially Thursday night.

Expecting mainly dry weather Thursday, with an increasing risk
for rain from west to east Thursday night, especially from
Worcester county and RI, west.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

*/ Highlights...

 - Moderate to heavy rain and snowmelt contributing to possible
   flooding Friday into Saturday

 - Surging warmer air beginning Thursday through Saturday,
   potential for isolated ice jams, river flooding

 - Colder air surging into the region for early next week, a possible
   snow event towards midweek

*/ Overview...

An active weather pattern with impressive temperature swings. Less
amplified pattern over the N Pacific, the attendant H3 jet breaking
further E into the W CONUS, usherance of milder air, potential MJO
implications, downstream opportunities of onshore energy to tap into
both N and S streams. Against a stout H5 Atlantic ridge, maintained
by forecast traffic around the Azores, a slowed H5 pattern, both N
and S stream energy has the capability of strengthening through the
preferred H5 trof pattern over the E CONUS capturing tropical air
and energy N in advance while dragging S Arctic air to the rear. The
clash of airmasses, especially across the NE CONUS, atmospheric
response to restore balance, looking at a stormy pattern by the end
of the week and through the weekend to which will be addressed below.

*/ Friday into Saturday...

Preferred H5 trof evolving over E/NE CONUS, capturing both S and N
stream energy, transporting N highly anomalous tropical air while
swinging rearward cold, Arctic temperatures. Lift and QG-forcing
mechanisms apparent along conveyor belt motions as waves of low
pressure emerge along the baroclinic / cold frontal zone beneath
individual mid-level impulses. Acting upon deep column moisture with
high freezing level heights (upwards of 12 kft), efficient rainfall
processes apparent. Moderate to heavy at times, along with strong S
winds aloft and high dewpoint air, across remnant deep snowpack and
iced up rivers and tributaries, the potential for flooding exists as
well as damaging winds which will be discussed in short below along
with any headlines.

Heavy Rain / Flooding...

From a consensus of ensemble and probabilistic guidance, looking at
a tropical-source plume to be advected and forced upward through the
atmospheric layer by strongly convergent low-level (H925-85) winds
and attendant mid-level impulses beneath the right rear quadrant of
the upper level jet. Efficient warm rain processes and consideration
of a S/SW persistent stream of deep layer moisture, no surprise to
see probabilistic guidance highlighting the decent chance of storm
total rainfall amounts up to 4-inches especially over SE New England
with the potential of 1 to 2 inches in a 12-hour period, possibly as
short at 6-hours.

A remnant snowpack around 6 to 12 inches over much of S New England,
absorbing moisture out of the air and in some instances the ground,
have quickly gathered snow water equivalent measurements of around 2
inches upwards of 3 inches. Also need to consider the frozen ground
which simply aids the runoff of any liquid instead of leeching into
the ground.

Considering snow melt that will precede heavy rain, increasing S
winds and rising surface dewpoints that'll definitely eat the snow,
a lot of water going into the system from a very anomalous event.
Yes, snow pack will absorb some of the water, but there's a lot of
water going into the system. Feel the writing is on the wall. That
and potential isolated ice jams on the rivers, have gone ahead and
issued a FLOOD WATCH for the entire area. Not splitting hairs given
threats of either or are area-wide. The flood threat exacerbated by
aforementioned isolated ice jams along any rivers, and within urban
locations, any snow clogged drains.

As to rivers and streams, with enough thawing hours in advance and
during the storm, beginning Thursday afternoon, a foot of ice or
more on some of the rivers, there is the isolated possibility of ice
jams especially if the river height can exceed 3-times the thickness
of the ice promoting mechanical break-up. Also a dependence on what
happens N of us in the river / small-stream system. In all, ensemble
river forecast guidance highlighting a number of points to go into
minor to moderate flooding status into the weekend.

Strong / Damaging Winds...

A stout inversion in place with a pronounced warm-nose layer around
H95-85. Looking at two periods at the top of the inversion where S
winds will be sustained at hurricane force, during Friday for all of
S New England and around Saturday morning for SE New England. But a
question of whether mechanical mixing / precipitation drag from rain
could bring down faster winds to the surface, ensemble probabilities
signaling a strong chance of reaching 45 to 55 mph gusts. Hesitant
as CIPS Analogs off the 10.12z guidance have only a moderate chance
of 35 mph gusts, a lower nearly non-existent chance of gusts over 40
mph.

Certainly 2m temperature / dewpoint dependent, models and associated
soundings could be too cool, inversion less stout, greater ability
for winds to mix down to the surface. However low confidence at this
time, feel ensembles can't capture the small-scale inversion. Will
hold off on any wind headlines with this forecast.

Ice Threat...

On Saturday, the second wave of low pressure sweeping N/E across S
New England, colder air on the cusp, waiting in the wings associated
with surface high pressure building S out of Canada to the rear of
the preferred H5 trof, there's the potential for anabatic cold front
processes to yield a period of freezing rain / wintry mix across the
interior NE CONUS.

A few things worth noting: 1.) dry within the dendritic growth zone,
2.) absent surface high pressure N/E, pronounced nearly 1050 mb N/W,
and 3.) per both surface winds and ageostrophic flow, indications of
W undercutting flow that lend to a deepening cold layer below H9
towards -10C, and 4.) cyclonic flow, low-level moisture, lift along
the anabatic cold front with some mid to upper level support with
additional energy ahead of a weak h5 trof axis beneath a continued
right-rear quadrant of the upper level jet.

Everything in perspective, there is the threat especially over N/W
MA of a period of freezing rain potentially transitioning to sleet
before all is said done. Will highlight in the HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK the potential threat, something we'll need to watch.

*/ Sunday onward...

A quick glance at the forecast, a period of cold weather as ushered
behind the through the preferred H5 trof pattern. Another Pacific
disturbance rotating through the flow, the baroclinic zone / cold
front pushed offshore, consensus of model guidance picking up on a
wave low potentially outside of the bench mark. Still a spread with
ensemble members, we likely will not have a better idea till we get
within 96 hours at a maximum. Behind the system, keep the cold air
in place but can't rule out a bump of milder air if the Pacific
pattern outlined in the overview continues, shots of milder air into
the CONUS, higher heights and colder air shunted N.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Thursday Night/...

Through 00Z...High confidence. VFR. Light winds slowly veer to
the SSW.

Tonight...High confidence. Mainly VFR conditions. Low risk for
a brief period of spotty light freezing rain across northwest
MA.

Thursday...Moderate confidence. Timing uncertain but threat for
MVFR to IFR conditions will increase mainly across the interior
during the afternoon and especially early evening.

Thursday Night...Moderate confidence. MVFR/IFR conditions
expected. Breezy. RA with areas BR. Widespread LLWS likely.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Friday through Monday/...

Friday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with areas gusts to
30 kt. RA, areas FG.

Friday Night: Mainly IFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. RA,
areas BR.

Saturday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with
local gusts to 30 kt. RA likely, areas BR, chance FZRA.

Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Breezy.
Slight chance FZRA.

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible.

Sunday Night: VFR.

Martin Luther King Jr Day:

&&

.MARINE...

Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Thursday Night/...

Increasing S to SW winds later tonight through Thursday night.
Expecting winds to remain mainly below 25 kt. Some of the waters
east of MA may see local gusts up to 25 kt. May need a Small
Craft Advisory for some of the waters sometime during this
period. Still evaluating.

Increasing risk for rain from W to E Thursday night.

Outlook /Friday through Monday/...

Friday: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to
11 ft. Rain, areas fog.

Friday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft. Rain, areas fog.
Visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Saturday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with local
gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft. Rain, areas fog,
chance of freezing rain. Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft.
Chance of rain, areas fog, slight chance of freezing rain.

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Sunday Night through Martin Luther King Jr Day: Winds less than
25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of snow.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...Flood Watch from Friday morning through Saturday afternoon for
     CTZ002>004.
MA...Flood Watch from Friday morning through Saturday afternoon for
     MAZ002>024-026.
RI...Flood Watch from Friday morning through Saturday afternoon for
     RIZ001>008.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Belk/Sipprell
NEAR TERM...Belk
SHORT TERM...Belk
LONG TERM...Sipprell
AVIATION...Belk/Sipprell
MARINE...Belk/Sipprell

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Taunton MA
404 PM EST Wed Jan 10 2018

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-RIZ001>008-112115-
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-Western Franklin MA-
Eastern Franklin MA-Northern Worcester MA-Central Middlesex MA-
Western Essex MA-Eastern Essex MA-Western Hampshire MA-
Western Hampden MA-Eastern Hampshire MA-Eastern Hampden MA-
Southern Worcester MA-Western Norfolk MA-Southeast Middlesex MA-
Suffolk MA-Eastern Norfolk MA-Northern Bristol MA-
Western Plymouth MA-Eastern Plymouth MA-Southern Bristol MA-
Southern Plymouth MA-Barnstable MA-Dukes MA-Nantucket MA-
Northern Middlesex MA-Northwest Providence RI-
Southeast Providence RI-Western Kent RI-Eastern Kent RI-Bristol RI-
Washington RI-Newport RI-Block Island RI-
404 PM EST Wed Jan 10 2018

...FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Connecticut, all of
Massachusetts east of Berkshire County, and Rhode Island.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch

Saturday...
There is the threat of freezing rain across northern and western
portions of Massachusetts that may require a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256-112115-
Boston Harbor-Cape Cod Bay-Nantucket Sound-Vineyard Sound-
Buzzards Bay-Rhode Island Sound-Narragansett Bay-Block Island Sound-
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank National
Marine Sanctuary-Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard and
Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out to
20 nm South of Block Island-
404 PM EST Wed Jan 10 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Massachusetts and Rhode
Island coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Friday through Saturday...
There is a risk of southerly gales on all waters except the inner
harbors and sounds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

For the latest updates...please visit our webpage at
www.weather.gov/boston

You can follow us on Facebook at
www.facebook.com/NWSBoston

You can follow us on Twitter at
@NWSBoston