Small Craft Advisory 36, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

711 
WHUS71 KBOX 271519
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Taunton MA
1019 AM EST Tue Feb 27 2018

ANZ250-254-272330-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0036.180228T0600Z-180301T0000Z/
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank
National Marine Sanctuary-
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
1019 AM EST Tue Feb 27 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS AND SEAS...Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 
  30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ255-256-272330-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0036.180228T1500Z-180301T0000Z/
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard
and Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out
to 20 nm South of Block Island-
1019 AM EST Tue Feb 27 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS AND SEAS...Southwest winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 
  25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

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www.weather.gov/boston

You can follow us on Facebook at
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You can follow us on Twitter at
@NWSBoston

336 
WHUS71 KBOX 272123
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Taunton MA
423 PM EST Tue Feb 27 2018

ANZ235-237-280530-
/O.EXB.KBOX.SC.Y.0036.180228T0500Z-180228T1800Z/
Rhode Island Sound-Block Island Sound-
423 PM EST Tue Feb 27 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM
EST WEDNESDAY...

The National Weather Service in Taunton has issued a Small Craft
Advisory, which is in effect from midnight tonight to 1 PM EST
Wednesday.

* WINDS AND SEAS...Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 
  25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ231-280530-
/O.EXB.KBOX.SC.Y.0036.180228T0500Z-180228T1000Z/
Cape Cod Bay-
423 PM EST Tue Feb 27 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 AM
EST WEDNESDAY...

The National Weather Service in Taunton has issued a Small Craft
Advisory, which is in effect from midnight tonight to 5 AM EST
Wednesday.

* WINDS AND SEAS...Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 
  25 kt. Seas 1 to 3 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ250-280530-
/O.EXT.KBOX.SC.Y.0036.180228T0300Z-180301T0100Z/
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank
National Marine Sanctuary-
423 PM EST Tue Feb 27 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
8 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS AND SEAS...Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 
  25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ254-280530-
/O.EXT.KBOX.SC.Y.0036.180228T0500Z-180301T0300Z/
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
423 PM EST Tue Feb 27 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
10 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS AND SEAS...Southwest winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 
  25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ255-256-280530-
/O.EXT.KBOX.SC.Y.0036.180228T0500Z-180301T0000Z/
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard
and Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out
to 20 nm South of Block Island-
423 PM EST Tue Feb 27 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
7 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS AND SEAS...Southwest winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 
  25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

For the latest updates...please visit our webpage at
www.weather.gov/boston

You can follow us on Facebook at
www.facebook.com/NWSBoston

You can follow us on Twitter at
@NWSBoston

238 
WHUS71 KBOX 280157
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Taunton MA
857 PM EST Tue Feb 27 2018

ANZ250-281000-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0036.180228T0300Z-180301T0100Z/
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank
National Marine Sanctuary-
857 PM EST Tue Feb 27 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS AND SEAS...Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 
  25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ254-281000-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0036.180228T0500Z-180301T0300Z/
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
857 PM EST Tue Feb 27 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS AND SEAS...Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 
  25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ255-256-281000-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0036.180228T0500Z-180301T0000Z/
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard
and Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out
to 20 nm South of Block Island-
857 PM EST Tue Feb 27 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS AND SEAS...Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 
  25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ235-237-281000-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0036.180228T0500Z-180228T1800Z/
Rhode Island Sound-Block Island Sound-
857 PM EST Tue Feb 27 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS AND SEAS...Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 
  25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ231-281000-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0036.180228T0500Z-180228T1000Z/
Cape Cod Bay-
857 PM EST Tue Feb 27 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
TO 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS AND SEAS...Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt gusts up to 25
  knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

For the latest updates...please visit our webpage at
www.weather.gov/boston

You can follow us on Facebook at
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You can follow us on Twitter at
@NWSBoston

030 
WHUS71 KBOX 280859
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Taunton MA
359 AM EST Wed Feb 28 2018

ANZ250-281700-
/O.CAN.KBOX.SC.Y.0036.000000T0000Z-180301T0100Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.SC.Y.0037.180228T1500Z-180301T0600Z/
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank
National Marine Sanctuary-
359 AM EST Wed Feb 28 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM
EST THURSDAY...

The National Weather Service in Taunton has issued a Small Craft
Advisory, which is in effect from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM EST
Thursday.

* WINDS AND SEAS...Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 
  25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ254-281700-
/O.CAN.KBOX.SC.Y.0036.000000T0000Z-180301T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.SC.Y.0037.180228T1500Z-180301T0600Z/
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
359 AM EST Wed Feb 28 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM
EST THURSDAY...

The National Weather Service in Taunton has issued a Small Craft
Advisory, which is in effect from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM EST
Thursday.

* WINDS AND SEAS...Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 
  25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ255-256-281700-
/O.CAN.KBOX.SC.Y.0036.000000T0000Z-180301T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.SC.Y.0037.180228T1500Z-180301T0600Z/
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard
and Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out
to 20 nm South of Block Island-
359 AM EST Wed Feb 28 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM
EST THURSDAY...

The National Weather Service in Taunton has issued a Small Craft
Advisory, which is in effect from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM EST
Thursday.

* WINDS AND SEAS...Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 
  25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ231-281700-
/O.CAN.KBOX.SC.Y.0036.000000T0000Z-180228T1000Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.SC.Y.0037.180228T1500Z-180301T0000Z/
Cape Cod Bay-
359 AM EST Wed Feb 28 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
EST THIS EVENING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Taunton has issued a Small Craft
Advisory, which is in effect from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EST
this evening. The Small Craft Advisory has been cancelled.

* WINDS AND SEAS...Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 
  25 kt. Seas 1 to 3 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ235-237-281700-
/O.CAN.KBOX.SC.Y.0036.000000T0000Z-180228T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.SC.Y.0037.180228T1500Z-180301T0000Z/
Rhode Island Sound-Block Island Sound-
359 AM EST Wed Feb 28 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
EST THIS EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Taunton has issued a Small Craft
Advisory, which is in effect from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EST
this evening.

* WINDS AND SEAS...Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 
  25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ232>234-281700-
/O.NEW.KBOX.SC.Y.0037.180228T1500Z-180301T0000Z/
Nantucket Sound-Vineyard Sound-Buzzards Bay-
359 AM EST Wed Feb 28 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
EST THIS EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Taunton has issued a Small Craft
Advisory, which is in effect from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EST
this evening.

* WINDS AND SEAS...Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 
  25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ236-281700-
/O.NEW.KBOX.SC.Y.0037.180228T1500Z-180301T0000Z/
Narragansett Bay-
359 AM EST Wed Feb 28 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
EST THIS EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Taunton has issued a Small Craft
Advisory, which is in effect from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EST
this evening.

* WINDS AND SEAS...Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 
  25 kt. Waves 1 to 3 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

Frank

For the latest updates...please visit our webpage at
www.weather.gov/boston

You can follow us on Facebook at
www.facebook.com/NWSBoston

You can follow us on Twitter at
@NWSBoston

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
133 AM EST Tue Feb 27 2018

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure will bring dry weather with cool nights and mild
afternoons through mid week. Potential continues for a significant
coastal storm late this week followed by a return to drier weather
into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

*/ 130 am update...

Towards sunrise...

Clear conditions. High pressure building into the region. Could
see a brief burst of wind gusts given the pressure change across
the region, a weak mid-level impulse lending to an enhancement
of the wind profile sweeping through aloft. Otherwise quiet, a
measure of radiational cooling, especially for interior sheltered
valleys. Near any bodies of water or residual moisture can't rule
out shallow ground fog, isolated.

Today...

High pressure. Scattered mid to high level clouds. NW winds becoming
W. Perhaps light enough allowing weak sea-breezes along E-coastal
MA as highs warm into the low to mid 50s. Otherwise 5 to 10 mph with
gusts up to 20 mph per deep layer mixing up to H85. Dry, dewpoints
in the upper teens, low 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...

Tonight...

Weak wave disturbance through the near-zonal flow, local enhancement
to winds becoming SW. Strongest winds across high terrain, waters.
Scattered to broken mid to high level clouds pressing E towards
morning. Limits on cooling, holding lows in the 30s.

Wednesday into Wednesday night...

Energy building W out ahead our late week storm system yet high pressure
remains in control, SW winds slackening. Thickening clouds decks
with time as the column slowly warms. Mixing to H8 Wednesday, H85
temperatures around freezing, enough sunshine, highs up into the
low 60s. Thicker clouds, hold lows closer to around the upper 30s.
Noting N-stream clipper into the E Great Lakes, should hold N/W,
remaining dry, showers holding across N New England, high pressure
holding.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

Highlights...

 * Mild but dry through Thursday.
 * Coastal storm to the south Fri - Sat with multiple impacts
   possible.
 * Coastal flooding/erosion most concerning over several tide
   cycles Fri-Weekend.

Overview and model preferences...

While current mid-upper lvl pattern is very zonal and confluent from
the Continental Divide to near Greenland, it is the retrograding H5
580dm (3 std deviations above normal height values at this lvl) that
will come to define the long-term forecast. It too is the block forcing
the strongly negative NAO/AO, and leading to the talk of a very anomalous
storm system Fri-Sat. It should be noted, that at this time there
remains too much uncertainty to favor any one particular model or
ensemble solution. Stony Brook ensemble sensitivity functions still
suggest the PV anomalies at play are currently wrapped up in a weak
wave offshore of BC and a S stream vortex off the Baja California,
which will not push onshore until overnight tonight. However, noting
reasonably good agreement that the DT could dip as low as 650hPa
once it begins to interact with the Greenland block. This is part
of the several factors favoring a very dynamic system by week's end.
At this time, will continue favor ensemble blends, which are taking
into account the full envelope of solutions, but expect better agreement
as we approach mid week.

Details...

Thu...
Ridging, associated with 1030+ high pres near the Appalachians
continues to be the dominant factor mid week. There is a weak
clipper, attendant to the leading shortwave expected Thu, but
this initial wave is moisture starved and will likely force the
bulk of its lower lvl forcing to the N, only a few SHRA
expected, however, it does provide warming to preempt the
stronger storm Fri and Sat. Mild by day, with H92 temps around
+5C and +6C by Thu. Expecting highs mainly low-mid 50s on Thu
thanks to increased cloud cover. Mins generally in the low-mid
30s, still nearly 10F above seasonal normals.

Fri and Sat...
Although above it is stated that it is too uncertain to nail down
specific and particularly mesoscale features associated with a very
strong, very slow moving double- barrel (OH valley to coastal low)
low pres system, that does not mean that some of the potential impacts
cannot be discussed as they have by previous forecasters. A very
deep PV anomaly, very strong low- mid lvl jet, modestly high PWATs
and a long fetch through the Gulf of Maine are all synoptic features
that ensembles and deterministic guidance are converging upon. Examining
dprog/dt for the 26.12Z cycle, GFS/ECMWF operational and ensembles
have shifted S somewhat and are weaker for New England, something
previous forecaster noted has some climatological precedence in a
deeply negative NAO pattern such as this. The one key factor though,
thanks to the block is that any impacts will be prolonged, and felt
for the full 48 hour period, which will enhance the impacts even
if a weaker solution is verified.

Coastal Flooding/Marine...
See separate sections for these below, but given the long fetch of
easterlies with a track S of the 40/70 benchmark, strong LLJ, these
are likely to be the highest impacts from this storm based on current
forecast. High period swells and astronomically high tides are both
in play for the duration of this storm.

Winds...
Even ensemble means 96+ hours out favor an H85/H92 easterly jet across
New England S coast 5 std deviations stronger than normal, or nearly
80kt. If the gradual S suppression continues it will force the core
of this jet offshore as well. Mixing will also be a mitigating factor
due to cold SSTs in early March (averaging about +6C), but even taking
as little as 50 percent of the peak momentum would still support at
least Wind Advisories. Potential for higher if the track ticks further
N.

Rain/Snow potential...
Once again impacted by track, as a suppressed track would usurp most
of the available moisture to the S. PWAT plumes are modest, mainly
around 1 std deviation above normal, and the suppression limits the
mid lvl f-gen/deformation across interior portions of New England.
Still, noting ensemble probabilities with final 48 hr QPF 1-2in near
50 percent, fairly high for a nearly 120 hour forecast. Will need
to watch this, as the long easterly marine fetch could yield some
heavier rain thanks to increased moisture and resultant upslope,
unless the low pres continues to shift S. Given the risk for 1-2
in, will need to monitor for localized river flooding as well. Regarding
SN, thermal profile still very much in question and strongly correlated
to track and mid lvl f-gen setup. Best chance for any accumulation
would be later in the life cycle, mainly for Sat and mainly N of
the Mass Pike, if it is cold enough or the moisture far enough N
to yield any.

Overall...this is a storm that still bares watching in spite of the
recent push S. A simple shift N of the current mean track would raise
impacts to high for especially Marine/Coastal and wind impacts.

Sun and Mon...
Although weakening, with central H5 heights around 550dm as opposed
to the nearly 580 early, the block continues to retrograde, closer
to Labrador and Ungava Bay in QC. This creates a dipole with the
cutoff associated with the ocean storm and little movement. Although
the subsidence associated with the block will begin to be felt on
Sun, with gradual end to any remaining precip and colder, air moving
in the prolonged NE fetch could extend the coastal/marine impacts
while improvement occurs inland.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Wednesday night/...High confidence.

Today...
VFR. W winds becoming SW late. Possible light sea-breeze along
the E MA coast. SCT high CIGs.

Tonight...
VFR. W/SW winds, heightened slightly, gusts up to 20 kts for high
terrain, shoreline. SCT-BKN mid-high CIGs.

Wednesday into Wednesday night...
VFR. SW winds, tapering. Increasing and lowering CIGs.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAFs.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAFs.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible with isolated BR.
Breezy.

Thursday Night: Mainly VFR to MVFR, with local IFR possible.
Windy with gusts to 35 kt. RA likely by early AM Fri.

Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Strong winds with
gusts to 40-50 kt mainly across SE MA. RA likely, chance SN
interior.

Friday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Strong winds with
gusts to 40-50 kt mainly SE MA. Chance RA, slight chance SN
interior.

Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 35 kt. Slight chance RA, slight chance SN interior.

&&

.MARINE...

Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Wednesday/...High confidence.

Today...
W/NW winds. Winds remaining below small craft criteria.

Tonight...
W winds. Outer water gusts up to 25 kts possible along with seas
up to 5 feet.

Wednesday into Wednesday night...
W/SW winds, diminishing during the day. Waves diminishing below
5 feet.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...Moderate confidence.

Thursday...
Quiet boating weather with high pressure over the waters.

Friday into Saturday...
High seas expected from a significant coastal storm. Continued
uncertainty as to the S shift of the low center and associated
tight gradient to its N along the S New England coast. Forecast
guidance continues to waver yet trend ever slightly S, but not
dramatic, and as such the E/NE gradient wind in our coastal
waters does not go away. Question is how strong it will be and
where the core of the winds will reside. Long fetch and duration,
and broad envelope of gale to storm force winds suggest that the
wave guidance may be too conservative, a common error for these
types of systems. Added 15 to 20 percent to our model forecast
waves pushing wave heights to 30 feet given forecast persistent
E/NE winds and an accompanying long fetch, especially over the
E/SE waters. Wave periods will increase during the duration of
the storm.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

The potential exists for significant coastal flooding/beach erosion
over several high tide cycles late this week, primarily along the
E MA coast. While continued uncertainty, there are several weather
ingredients potentially in place coupled with high astronomical
tides to raise concern.

Onshore winds possibly as high as 60 mph, a very long fetch, very
long duration, and large envelope of gale to storm force winds will
act to build high seas and elevated storm surge. How high for both
seas and surge will determine the severity of impact. Even if the
storm center ends up a little further south, we are still likely
to experience minor to moderate coastal flooding for two or three
high tide cycles given the breadth of the gradient about the storm.

We will likely experience at least moderate beach erosion with severe
beach erosion a possibility due to the combination of high water levels
and high surf over multiple high tide cycles.

Some minor coastal impacts may show up as early as Thursday evening
along both east and south facing coasts. The high tides of greatest
concern include the Friday late morning, Friday night, and Saturday
midday high tides for east and northeast facing shorelines of MA.
As the event progresses, the onshore winds will diminish, but a long
period swell will likely persist all the way through the weekend and
may cause some lingering impacts into Sunday.

If there should be heavy rain in addition, we could also be dealing
with poor-drainage flooding in some coastal cities during the high
tides as well.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Doody/Sipprell
NEAR TERM...Doody/Sipprell
SHORT TERM...Sipprell
LONG TERM...Doody
AVIATION...Doody/Sipprell
MARINE...Doody/Sipprell/Thompson
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...WFO BOX Staff

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Taunton MA
954 PM EST Mon Feb 26 2018

ANZ234-CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-RIZ001>008-280300-
Buzzards Bay-Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-Western Franklin MA-
Eastern Franklin MA-Northern Worcester MA-Central Middlesex MA-
Western Essex MA-Eastern Essex MA-Western Hampshire MA-
Western Hampden MA-Eastern Hampshire MA-Eastern Hampden MA-
Southern Worcester MA-Western Norfolk MA-Southeast Middlesex MA-
Suffolk MA-Eastern Norfolk MA-Northern Bristol MA-
Western Plymouth MA-Eastern Plymouth MA-Southern Bristol MA-
Southern Plymouth MA-Barnstable MA-Dukes MA-Nantucket MA-
Northern Middlesex MA-Northwest Providence RI-
Southeast Providence RI-Western Kent RI-Eastern Kent RI-Bristol RI-
Washington RI-Newport RI-Block Island RI-
954 PM EST Mon Feb 26 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Connecticut, all of
Massachusetts east of Berkshire County, Massachusetts
coastal waters, and Rhode Island.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Friday into Saturday...

Significant coastal storm potentially lashing S New England with
strong to damaging winds. During high astronomical tides, along with
subsequent wave action, swell and high surf, there is the threat for
coastal flooding and beach erosion which could linger through the
whole weekend. Should rain become an issue, heavy at times, can not
rule out inland flooding, especially along the coast during high-tide
resultant of poor drainage. Multiple land and marine hazards possible,
however this remains a LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST at this time. Greatest
concern is across S-coastal New England including CT, RI, south and
eastern MA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ230>233-235>237-250-251-254>256-280300-
Boston Harbor-Cape Cod Bay-Nantucket Sound-Vineyard Sound-
Rhode Island Sound-Narragansett Bay-Block Island Sound-
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank National
Marine Sanctuary-Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard and
Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out to
20 nm South of Block Island-
954 PM EST Mon Feb 26 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Massachusetts coastal waters
and Rhode Island coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Friday into Saturday...

Significant coastal storm potentially lashing S New England with
gale, possibly storm force, winds. During high astronomical tides, an
accompanying long easterly fetch could lead to very high and dangerous
seas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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