Gale Watch 39, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

470 
WHUS71 KBOX 150304
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1004 PM EST Fri Dec 14 2018

ANZ254>256-151115-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.A.0039.181216T0900Z-181217T0500Z/
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard
and Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out
to 20 nm South of Block Island-
1004 PM EST Fri Dec 14 2018

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...Northeast winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 
  40 kt. Seas 6 to 9 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased...but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

ANZ232-233-235-237-151115-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.A.0039.181216T1700Z-181217T0500Z/
Nantucket Sound-Vineyard Sound-Rhode Island Sound-
Block Island Sound-
1004 PM EST Fri Dec 14 2018

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...Northeast winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 
  35 kt. Seas 5 to 7 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased...but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

For the latest updates...please visit our webpage at
www.weather.gov/boston

You can follow us on Facebook at
www.facebook.com/NWSBoston

You can follow us on Twitter at
@NWSBoston

651 
WHUS71 KBOX 150843
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
343 AM EST Sat Dec 15 2018

ANZ250-151645-
/O.EXB.KBOX.GL.A.0039.181216T2000Z-181217T1300Z/
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank
National Marine Sanctuary-
343 AM EST Sat Dec 15 2018

...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

The National Weather Service in Boston/Norton has issued a Gale
Watch, which is in effect from Sunday afternoon through Monday
morning.

* WINDS AND SEAS...Easterly winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35
  kt. Seas 7 to 10 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased...but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

ANZ232-233-235-237-151645-
/O.EXT.KBOX.GL.A.0039.181216T1400Z-181217T0500Z/
Nantucket Sound-Vineyard Sound-Rhode Island Sound-
Block Island Sound-
343 AM EST Sat Dec 15 2018

...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...Easterly winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35
  kt. Seas 5 to 8 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased...but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

ANZ254-151645-
/O.EXT.KBOX.GL.A.0039.181216T2000Z-181217T1300Z/
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
343 AM EST Sat Dec 15 2018

...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...Easterly winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40
  kt. Seas 7 to 10 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased...but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

ANZ255-256-151645-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.A.0039.181216T0900Z-181217T0500Z/
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard
and Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out
to 20 nm South of Block Island-
343 AM EST Sat Dec 15 2018

...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...Easterly winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35
  kt. Seas 7 to 10 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased...but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

For the latest updates...please visit our webpage at
www.weather.gov/boston

You can follow us on Facebook at
www.facebook.com/NWSBoston

You can follow us on Twitter at
@NWSBoston

661 
WHUS71 KBOX 150910
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
410 AM EST Sat Dec 15 2018

ANZ255-256-151715-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.A.0039.181216T0900Z-181217T0500Z/
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard
and Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out
to 20 nm South of Block Island-
410 AM EST Sat Dec 15 2018

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...Northeast winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 
  35 kt. Seas 7 to 10 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased...but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

ANZ232-233-235-237-151715-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.A.0039.181216T1400Z-181217T0500Z/
Nantucket Sound-Vineyard Sound-Rhode Island Sound-
Block Island Sound-
410 AM EST Sat Dec 15 2018

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...Northeast winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 
  35 kt. Seas 5 to 8 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased...but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

ANZ250-254-151715-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.A.0039.181216T2000Z-181217T1300Z/
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank
National Marine Sanctuary-
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
410 AM EST Sat Dec 15 2018

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...Northeast winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 
  40 kt. Seas 7 to 10 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased...but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

For the latest updates...please visit our webpage at
www.weather.gov/boston

You can follow us on Facebook at
www.facebook.com/NWSBoston

You can follow us on Twitter at
@NWSBoston

824 
WHUS71 KBOX 151459
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
959 AM EST Sat Dec 15 2018

ANZ255-256-152300-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.A.0039.181216T0900Z-181217T0500Z/
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard
and Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out
to 20 nm South of Block Island-
959 AM EST Sat Dec 15 2018

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...Northeast winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 
  35 kt. Seas 7 to 10 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased...but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

ANZ232-233-235-237-152300-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.A.0039.181216T1400Z-181217T0500Z/
Nantucket Sound-Vineyard Sound-Rhode Island Sound-
Block Island Sound-
959 AM EST Sat Dec 15 2018

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...Northeast winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 
  35 kt. Seas 5 to 8 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased...but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

ANZ250-254-152300-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.A.0039.181216T2000Z-181217T1300Z/
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank
National Marine Sanctuary-
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
959 AM EST Sat Dec 15 2018

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...Northeast winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 
  40 kt. Seas 7 to 10 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased...but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

For the latest updates...please visit our webpage at
www.weather.gov/boston

You can follow us on Facebook at
www.facebook.com/NWSBoston

You can follow us on Twitter at
@NWSBoston

229 
WHUS71 KBOX 152110
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
410 PM EST Sat Dec 15 2018

ANZ255-256-160515-
/O.UPG.KBOX.GL.A.0039.181216T0900Z-181217T0500Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.GL.W.0055.181216T1100Z-181217T0500Z/
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard
and Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out
to 20 nm South of Block Island-
410 PM EST Sat Dec 15 2018

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY
NIGHT...

The National Weather Service in Boston/Norton has issued a Gale
Warning, which is in effect from 6 AM Sunday to midnight EST
Sunday night. The Gale Watch is no longer in effect.

* WINDS AND SEAS...Northeast winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 
  40 kt. Seas 7 to 12 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ232-233-235-237-160515-
/O.UPG.KBOX.GL.A.0039.181216T1400Z-181217T0500Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.GL.W.0055.181216T1400Z-181217T0500Z/
Nantucket Sound-Vineyard Sound-Rhode Island Sound-
Block Island Sound-
410 PM EST Sat Dec 15 2018

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY
NIGHT...

The National Weather Service in Boston/Norton has issued a Gale
Warning, which is in effect from 9 AM Sunday to midnight EST
Sunday night. The Gale Watch is no longer in effect.

* WINDS AND SEAS...Northeast winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 
  40 kt. Seas 6 to 9 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ250-254-160515-
/O.UPG.KBOX.GL.A.0039.181216T2000Z-181217T1300Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.GL.W.0055.181216T2000Z-181217T1100Z/
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank
National Marine Sanctuary-
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
410 PM EST Sat Dec 15 2018

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY...

The National Weather Service in Boston/Norton has issued a Gale
Warning, which is in effect from 3 PM Sunday to 6 AM EST Monday.
The Gale Watch is no longer in effect.

* WINDS AND SEAS...Northeast winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 
  40 kt. Seas 6 to 11 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ231-234-160515-
/O.NEW.KBOX.GL.W.0055.181216T1400Z-181217T0500Z/
Cape Cod Bay-Buzzards Bay-
410 PM EST Sat Dec 15 2018

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY
NIGHT...

The National Weather Service in Boston/Norton has issued a Gale
Warning, which is in effect from 9 AM Sunday to midnight EST
Sunday night.

* WINDS AND SEAS...Northeast winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 
  35 kt. Seas 3 to 6 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ251-160515-
/O.NEW.KBOX.SC.Y.0170.181216T1000Z-181217T1100Z/
Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
410 PM EST Sat Dec 15 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST
MONDAY...

The National Weather Service in Boston/Norton has issued a Small
Craft Advisory, which is in effect from 5 AM Sunday to 6 AM EST
Monday.

* WINDS AND SEAS...Northeast winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 
  30 kt. Seas 7 to 10 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots,
or seas 5 feet or greater, are expected to produce hazardous wave
conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially
those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in these
conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ236-160515-
/O.NEW.KBOX.SC.Y.0170.181216T0700Z-181217T1100Z/
Narragansett Bay-
410 PM EST Sat Dec 15 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST
MONDAY...

The National Weather Service in Boston/Norton has issued a Small
Craft Advisory, which is in effect from 2 AM Sunday to 6 AM EST
Monday.

* WINDS AND SEAS...Northeast winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 
  30 kt. Waves 1 to 3 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots,
or seas 5 feet or greater, are expected to produce hazardous wave
conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially
those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in these
conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ230-160515-
/O.NEW.KBOX.SC.Y.0170.181216T2100Z-181217T1100Z/
Boston Harbor-
410 PM EST Sat Dec 15 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST
MONDAY...

The National Weather Service in Boston/Norton has issued a Small
Craft Advisory, which is in effect from 4 PM Sunday to 6 AM EST
Monday.

* WINDS AND SEAS...Northeast winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 
  30 kt. Waves 3 to 6 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots,
or seas 5 feet or greater, are expected to produce hazardous wave
conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially
those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in these
conditions.

&&

$$

For the latest updates...please visit our webpage at
www.weather.gov/boston

You can follow us on Facebook at
www.facebook.com/NWSBoston

You can follow us on Twitter at
@NWSBoston

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
107 PM EST Fri Dec 14 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure moves E of New England through today with a mild
south flow developing. A series of low pressure systems
tracking south of New England may bring a period of rain Friday
night into early Saturday ... and again Sunday into Sunday
night with mixed precip and ice possible in the interior. A cold
front sweeps across the region Monday followed by blustery and
cold weather Tuesday. Moderating temperatures by Wednesday into
Thursday. Another storm system possible by late week into
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1 PM update...

Touch of spring this afternoon? Well sunshine thru high clouds
for much of RI and eastern MA along with temps well into the 40s
and light winds, making for very pleasant conditions give the
recent stretch of colder than normal temps. Actually readings
are only a few degs warmer than avg with normal high temp for
Dec 14 ranging from 37 at Worcester to the lower 40s for Boston,
Providence and Hartford.

Sunshine will fade behind increasing clouds as the afternoon
progresses into the early evening in response to the WAA
pattern. However dry weather will prevail with any light rain
showers/sprinkles holding off until later this evening and after
midnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...

It still appears that confluent mid level flow will develop over our
region later tonight. The main impact of this will be to steer a
low pressure to our south, limiting the risk for significant rainfall.
Until this confluence develops, we will have to contend with a weak
shortwave and weak front. These two features should be enough to
trigger scattered areas of light rain early this evening. Winds
should remain light S to SW, so temperatures should hold nearly
steady overnight.

High pressure moving into the Saint Lawrence Valley Saturday should
bring drier weather from N to S during the day. Winds turn more
from the N Saturday afternoon, starting the return of colder air.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

*/ Highlights...

 - Wintry mix around Sunday
 - Turning colder Monday through Tuesday
 - Mild conditions return Wednesday into Thursday
 - Another storm system possible late week / weekend

*/ Overview...

Ensemble mean waffling of the N Pacific H5 trof lends to variable
trends within WPO / EPO teleconnections. Of certainty, continuation
of a progressive, mild Pacific jet lends to reloading shots of warm
air across N America echoed up through the stratosphere, seemingly
shunting the stratospheric vortex and colder Arctic air to the other
side of the N hemisphere. Persistent stream of Pacific energy, an
active mid to late December pattern is likely, however juxtaposition
of ridging / troughing across the CONUS is not. Present transition
towards a ridge-trof regime may reverse come the holidays, N-winds
initially, more S further out in time. Some signal gleaned from EC
weeklies and CFS of holiday warmth, but no true confidence at this
time.

For now, a H5 ridge-trof setup, downshearing potential vorticity and
colder air, tapping into the S-stream sub-tropical Pacific jet. Yet
Arctic air bottled up N. Cohesion between the two going into this
weekend, there is the potential for winter weather outcomes which
are highlighted in the discussion below along with forecast model
preference. As noted by the prior forecaster, key to the discussion
is the cohesion / phase timing with respect to cyclogenesis relative
to the 40N/70W benchmark.

*/ Discussion...

Saturday night through Sunday night...

Possible interior wet snow. Consensus trend, downsheared PV-streamer
and attendant trop-fold from Canada into the NE CONUS draws inward a
sub-tropical Pacific S-stream closed low thru cyclonic convergence
and ascent beneath lowering heights. However, individual forecast
model guidance struggling on this transition particular to locations
of surface to mid-level features relative to the 40N/70W benchmark,
as well as subsequent interior impacts related to deformation, low
level convergent forcing, and broadscale ascent. Aside, good model
agreement on thicknesses illustrating an Arctic air disconnect, the
storm having to manifest its own cold towards wintry precip-types,
only doing so through dynamic cooling and surface wet-bulbing that
is proportional to greater storm strength. Downstream progressive
flow pattern, bombogenesis into SE Canada, consistent model signals
of increasing lift, deformation, trowaling, steep lapse rates, even
potential instability wrapping around through the snow growth region
as the storm lifts out, becoming cyclonic negatively-tilted, closing
off into a deeper low with broader diffluence aloft. Perhaps with,
however, some dry air issues and subsequent ice presence lending to
mixed precip-types, the possibility of sleet and/or freezing rain.

Roughly daytime into evening event, mild thicknesses, uncertainty
with storm track and associated synoptic features, expect interior
winter precip going with high-res 2m temperatures and wet-bulb
processes yet however lower confidence any wet snows will meet or
exceed the 3-inch threshold for advisory-level criteria. Not much
confidence gained from ensemble means and probabilistics, and left
feeling as if CIPS Analogs are contaminated by poorly associated
analogs to the forecast mass fields.

A mix-bag, wintry-precip event given marginal thermal fields as
described above by thicknesses, and the possible presence of dry
air. Non-GFS preference with a closer track to S New England. A
worthy mention in the HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. Continued track
uncertainty with respect to exact specifics, stay tuned for later
forecast updates.

Monday into Tuesday...

Storm lifting out, bombing over SE Canada. Isallobaric / gradient
wind response, expect blustery NW winds mixing down easily to the
surface as cold air advection proceeds. Potential for wind advisory
headlines with gusts at or exceeding 45 mph. Lake effect machine
ongoing, snow shower / flurry activity into the Berkshires that
dissipates with time as high pressure slowly builds in from the W.
Considering coldest 2m temperature guidance going into Wednesday
morning as winds turn light under mostly clear conditions.

Wednesday into Thursday...

Moderating temperature trend as high pressure shifts E and S-flow
returns. More seasonable conditions expected with increasing clouds
late ahead of a storm system for the late-week timeframe.

Friday into the weekend...

Series of storm systems followed by shots of colder air. Far out in
time and discrepancies among deterministic guidance. Preference to
ensemble means with low confidence.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Saturday/...Moderate confidence.

18z update...

Thru 00z...

VFR for much of the time with just spotty/isolated MVFR cigs
from time to time. Dry weather prevails along with light S-SE
winds.

After 00z...

Mainly VFR but isolated MVFR cigs from time to time and
accompanied by brief light rain showers/sprinkles. Light and
variable winds.

Saturday...

VFR with isolated MVFR in light scattered showers/sprinkles with
highest chance across CT/RI and southeast MA during the morning.
Modest N-NW winds.

Saturday night...

VFR to start but trending MVFR as the night progresses with rain
likely holding off until daybreak Sunday or later. NE winds
begin to increase especially south coast including Cape Cod and
Islands where gusts up to 30 kt possible by Sunday morning.

KBOS Terminal...Some timing and uncertainty issues on areal
coverage of MVFR cigs this evening and overnight.

KBDL Terminal...Some timing and uncertainty issues on areal
coverage of MVFR cigs this evening and overnight.

Outlook /Sunday through Tuesday/...

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with gusts
to 35 kt. Chance RA, chance FZRA, slight chance SN.

Sunday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with gusts to
35 kt. Chance RA, chance FZRA, chance SN.

Monday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with local
gusts to 30 kt. Slight chance RA, slight chance FZRA.

Monday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts to 35 kt.

Tuesday: VFR. Strong winds with local gusts to 40 kt.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Saturday/...High confidence.

Tranquil boating conditions to prevail through Saturday across most
of the coastal waters. The exception will be a risk for some gusts
up to 25-30 kt across the coastal water east of MA as a front crosses
late this evening into tonight. After more consideration, decided
to issue a Small Craft Advisory for the coastal waters east of MA
for tonight.

Chance for light rain tonight into Saturday across the southern
waters.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...

Saturday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance of
rain.

Sunday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt.
Rough seas up to 9 ft. Chance of rain.

Sunday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft. Chance of rain.

Monday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft. Slight chance of rain.

Monday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas
up to 9 ft. Slight chance of rain.

Tuesday: gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas up
to 9 ft. Slight chance of snow.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 8 AM EST
     Saturday for ANZ250.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 6 AM EST
     Saturday for ANZ251.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Belk/Sipprell
NEAR TERM...Nocera
SHORT TERM...Belk
LONG TERM...Sipprell
AVIATION...Nocera/Sipprell
MARINE...Belk/Sipprell

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
410 AM EST Fri Dec 14 2018

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-RIZ001>008-150915-
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-Western Franklin MA-
Eastern Franklin MA-Northern Worcester MA-Central Middlesex MA-
Western Essex MA-Eastern Essex MA-Western Hampshire MA-
Western Hampden MA-Eastern Hampshire MA-Eastern Hampden MA-
Southern Worcester MA-Western Norfolk MA-Southeast Middlesex MA-
Suffolk MA-Eastern Norfolk MA-Northern Bristol MA-
Western Plymouth MA-Eastern Plymouth MA-Southern Bristol MA-
Southern Plymouth MA-Barnstable MA-Dukes MA-Nantucket MA-
Northern Middlesex MA-Northwest Providence RI-
Southeast Providence RI-Western Kent RI-Eastern Kent RI-Bristol RI-
Washington RI-Newport RI-Block Island RI-
410 AM EST Fri Dec 14 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Connecticut, all of
Massachusetts east of Berkshire County, and Rhode Island.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Saturday night through Sunday night...

Associated with a passing offshore storm, there is the potential
threat of an interior wintry mix comprising of wet snow, sleet,
and/or freezing rain. Possible accumulation on surfaces and
subsequent impacts to travel in addition to visibility reductions.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256-150915-
Boston Harbor-Cape Cod Bay-Nantucket Sound-Vineyard Sound-
Buzzards Bay-Rhode Island Sound-Narragansett Bay-Block Island Sound-
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank National
Marine Sanctuary-Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard and
Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out to
20 nm South of Block Island-
410 AM EST Fri Dec 14 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Massachusetts and Rhode
Island coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Monday night through Tuesday night...

There is the threat of NW gale force winds over all waters.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

For the latest updates, please visit our webpage at
www.weather.gov/boston

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