Gale Watch 3, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

593 
WHUS71 KBOX 111430
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Taunton MA
930 AM EST Thu Jan 11 2018

ANZ250-112230-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-180112T1500Z/
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.A.0003.180112T1500Z-180113T0200Z/
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank
National Marine Sanctuary-
930 AM EST Thu Jan 11 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
FRIDAY...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...South winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 
  kt. Seas 5 to 8 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased...but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

ANZ230-236-112230-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.A.0003.180112T1500Z-180113T0200Z/
Boston Harbor-Narragansett Bay-
930 AM EST Thu Jan 11 2018

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...South winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 
  kt. Waves 2 to 4 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased...but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

ANZ231>235-237-251-112230-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.A.0003.180112T1500Z-180113T0200Z/
Cape Cod Bay-Nantucket Sound-Vineyard Sound-Buzzards Bay-
Rhode Island Sound-Block Island Sound-
Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
930 AM EST Thu Jan 11 2018

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...South winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 
  kt. Seas 4 to 7 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased...but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

ANZ254>256-112230-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.A.0003.180112T1500Z-180113T0200Z/
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard
and Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out
to 20 nm South of Block Island-
930 AM EST Thu Jan 11 2018

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...South winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 
  kt. Seas 6 to 11 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased...but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

For the latest updates...please visit our webpage at
www.weather.gov/boston

You can follow us on Facebook at
www.facebook.com/NWSBoston

You can follow us on Twitter at
@NWSBoston

390 
WHUS71 KBOX 112107
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Taunton MA
407 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2018

ANZ250-120515-
/O.CAN.KBOX.SC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-180112T1500Z/
/O.EXT.KBOX.GL.A.0003.180112T1700Z-180113T0400Z/
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank
National Marine Sanctuary-
407 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2018

...GALE WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Taunton has cancelled the Small
Craft Advisory.

* WINDS AND SEAS...South winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 
  kt. Seas 7 to 10 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased...but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

ANZ235-237-120515-
/O.UPG.KBOX.GL.A.0003.180112T1500Z-180113T0200Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.SC.Y.0005.180112T0800Z-180113T1200Z/
Rhode Island Sound-Block Island Sound-
407 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST
SATURDAY...

The National Weather Service in Taunton has issued a Small Craft
Advisory, which is in effect from 3 AM Friday to 7 AM EST
Saturday. The Gale Watch is no longer in effect.

* WINDS AND SEAS...South winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 
  kt. Seas 7 to 12 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ254>256-120515-
/O.UPG.KBOX.GL.A.0003.180112T1500Z-180113T0200Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.SC.Y.0005.180112T0800Z-180113T1200Z/
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard
and Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out
to 20 nm South of Block Island-
407 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST
SATURDAY...

The National Weather Service in Taunton has issued a Small Craft
Advisory, which is in effect from 3 AM Friday to 7 AM EST
Saturday. The Gale Watch is no longer in effect.

* WINDS AND SEAS...South winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 
  kt. Seas 8 to 13 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ230-236-120515-
/O.EXT.KBOX.GL.A.0003.180112T1700Z-180113T0400Z/
Boston Harbor-Narragansett Bay-
407 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2018

...GALE WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...South winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 
  kt. Waves 3 to 6 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased...but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

ANZ231>234-120515-
/O.EXT.KBOX.GL.A.0003.180112T1700Z-180113T0400Z/
Cape Cod Bay-Nantucket Sound-Vineyard Sound-Buzzards Bay-
407 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2018

...GALE WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...South winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 
  kt. Seas 3 to 6 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased...but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

ANZ251-120515-
/O.EXT.KBOX.GL.A.0003.180112T1700Z-180113T0400Z/
Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
407 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2018

...GALE WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...South winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 
  kt. Seas 3 to 5 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased...but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

For the latest updates...please visit our webpage at
www.weather.gov/boston

You can follow us on Facebook at
www.facebook.com/NWSBoston

You can follow us on Twitter at
@NWSBoston

403 
WHUS71 KBOX 120229
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Taunton MA
929 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2018

ANZ235-237-121030-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0005.180112T0800Z-180113T1200Z/
Rhode Island Sound-Block Island Sound-
929 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO
7 AM EST SATURDAY...

* WINDS AND SEAS...South winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 
  kt. Seas 7 to 12 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ254>256-121030-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0005.180112T0800Z-180113T1200Z/
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard
and Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out
to 20 nm South of Block Island-
929 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO
7 AM EST SATURDAY...

* WINDS AND SEAS...South winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 
  kt. Seas 8 to 13 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ230-236-121030-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.A.0003.180112T1700Z-180113T0400Z/
Boston Harbor-Narragansett Bay-
929 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2018

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...South winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 
  kt. Waves 3 to 6 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased...but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

ANZ231>234-121030-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.A.0003.180112T1700Z-180113T0400Z/
Cape Cod Bay-Nantucket Sound-Vineyard Sound-Buzzards Bay-
929 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2018

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...South winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 
  kt. Seas 3 to 6 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased...but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

ANZ251-121030-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.A.0003.180112T1700Z-180113T0400Z/
Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
929 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2018

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...South winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 
  kt. Seas 3 to 5 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased...but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

ANZ250-121030-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.A.0003.180112T1700Z-180113T0400Z/
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank
National Marine Sanctuary-
929 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2018

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...South winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 
  kt. Seas 7 to 10 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased...but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

For the latest updates...please visit our webpage at
www.weather.gov/boston

You can follow us on Facebook at
www.facebook.com/NWSBoston

You can follow us on Twitter at
@NWSBoston

048 
WHUS71 KBOX 120744
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Taunton MA
244 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2018

ANZ235-121545-
/O.UPG.KBOX.SC.Y.0005.180112T0800Z-180113T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.GL.W.0003.180112T2200Z-180113T1200Z/
Rhode Island Sound-
244 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2018

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
SATURDAY...

The National Weather Service in Taunton has issued a Gale
Warning, which is in effect from 5 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST
Saturday. The Small Craft Advisory is no longer in effect.

* WINDS AND SEAS...South winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 
  kt. Seas 6 to 11 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ254>256-121545-
/O.UPG.KBOX.SC.Y.0005.180112T0800Z-180113T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.GL.W.0003.180112T2200Z-180113T1400Z/
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard
and Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out
to 20 nm South of Block Island-
244 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2018

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM EST
SATURDAY...

The National Weather Service in Taunton has issued a Gale
Warning, which is in effect from 5 PM this afternoon to 9 AM EST
Saturday. The Small Craft Advisory is no longer in effect.

* WINDS AND SEAS...South winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 
  kt. Seas 8 to 13 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ231>234-251-121545-
/O.UPG.KBOX.GL.A.0003.180112T1700Z-180113T0400Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.GL.W.0003.180112T2200Z-180113T1400Z/
Cape Cod Bay-Nantucket Sound-Vineyard Sound-Buzzards Bay-
Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
244 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2018

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM EST
SATURDAY...

The National Weather Service in Taunton has issued a Gale
Warning, which is in effect from 5 PM this afternoon to 9 AM EST
Saturday. The Gale Watch is no longer in effect.

* WINDS AND SEAS...South winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 
  kt. Seas 3 to 6 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ250-121545-
/O.UPG.KBOX.GL.A.0003.180112T1700Z-180113T0400Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.GL.W.0003.180112T2200Z-180113T1400Z/
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank
National Marine Sanctuary-
244 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2018

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM EST
SATURDAY...

The National Weather Service in Taunton has issued a Gale
Warning, which is in effect from 5 PM this afternoon to 9 AM EST
Saturday. The Gale Watch is no longer in effect.

* WINDS AND SEAS...South winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 
  kt. Seas 6 to 11 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ230-236-121545-
/O.EXB.KBOX.SC.Y.0005.180112T1400Z-180113T1200Z/
/O.UPG.KBOX.GL.A.0003.180112T1700Z-180113T0400Z/
Boston Harbor-Narragansett Bay-
244 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM
EST SATURDAY...

The National Weather Service in Taunton has issued a Small Craft
Advisory, which is in effect from 9 AM this morning to 7 AM EST
Saturday. The Gale Watch is no longer in effect.

* WINDS AND SEAS...South winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 
  kt. Waves 2 to 4 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ237-121545-
/O.EXT.KBOX.SC.Y.0005.180112T1200Z-180114T0000Z/
Block Island Sound-
244 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO
7 PM EST SATURDAY...

* WINDS AND SEAS...Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 
  30 kt. Seas 7 to 10 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

Frank

For the latest updates...please visit our webpage at
www.weather.gov/boston

You can follow us on Facebook at
www.facebook.com/NWSBoston

You can follow us on Twitter at
@NWSBoston

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
344 AM EST Thu Jan 11 2018

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure will continue to move further away from the region
today and tonight resulting in milder temperatures along with
the potential for some dense fog. Very mild weather is
anticipated on Friday along with an increasing risk for heavy
rain, gusty winds and flooding later Friday and Friday night. A
sharp turn to much colder weather occurs rapidly on Saturday,
which may allow precipitation to change to ice in many locations
along with a flash freeze. Mainly dry but very cold weather is
expected Sunday and Monday, but will have to watch the potential
for some snow and/or mixed precipitation Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

A southwest low level jet of 35 to 45 knots will continue to
transport milder air into the region today. The warm advection
pattern will result in an increase in cloudiness...but do expect
some peeks of sunshine especially across eastern sections.
Given decent mixing and unseasonably mild temps aloft...expect
afternoon high temperatures in the upper 40s to the lower 50s
with a few locations possible reaching into the middle 50s. Dry
weather is generally expected today given upper level ridging
and lack of synoptic scale forcing. However...some guidance
indicating potential for fog developing while other data
suggests it will hold off until mainly tonight.
Nonetheless...will have to watch for some fog developing later
today especially with higher dewpoint air moving over the
snowpack.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...

***Areas of fog tonight some of which may be locally dense***

***Unseasonably mild Friday with heavy rainfall and significant
 urban/street flooding threat for the late day/evening commute***

Tonight…

Southwest flow along with increasing low level moisture will
keep low temperatures in the 40s tonight. As unseasonably high
dewpoints overrun the deep snowpack in place...areas of fog
will continue to develop and some may be locally dense. Later
shifts may need to consider a dense fog advisory. While spotty
drizzle and perhaps a few spot showers are possible
tonight...best forcing and deeper low level moisture will remain
to our west. Therefore...not expecting much in the way of
rainfall tonight.

Friday…

Potent shortwave energy will be approaching from the southwest
increasing the forcing for ascent during the afternoon and evening.
This combined with highly anomalous Pwats 4+ standard
deviations above normal along with a low level jet 3+ standard
deviations above normal. These ingredients will result in heavy
rainfall and the potential for flooding later Friday into Friday
evening...especially with a rapidly melting snow pack as high
temperatures likely soar into the upper 50s and lower 60s. The
heaviest rainfall looks to overspread the region from the west
during the afternoon and perhaps holding off until the evening
on the coastal plain. Given storm clogged snow drains and heavy
rainfall the potential for significant urban/street flooding
exists with a potential impact to the Friday evening commute.
Guidance is also indicating a few hundred J/KG of MUCape so
would not be surprised if there was an embedded thunderstorm or
two. As the previous shift also mentioned will have to watch
some of the rivers and streams as well and can not rule out
isolated ice jam flooding.

Lastly...with the potential for temperatures across eastern
MA/RI to reach or exceed 60 some of the strong low level jet
might be able to mix down. This is always difficult to
forecast...but the potential for southwest wind gusts of 40 to
50 mph exists Friday afternoon and into the evening. Later
shifts may need to consider a wind advisory for the coastal
plain.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*/ Highlights...

 - Moderate to heavy rain and snowmelt contributing to possible
   flooding Friday into Saturday

 - Surging warmer air beginning Thursday through Saturday,
   potential for isolated ice jams, river flooding

 - Colder air surging into the region for early next week, a possible
   snow event towards midweek

*/ Overview...

An active weather pattern with impressive temperature swings. Less
amplified pattern over the N Pacific, the attendant H3 jet breaking
further E into the W CONUS, usherance of milder air, potential MJO
implications, downstream opportunities of onshore energy to tap into
both N and S streams. Against a stout H5 Atlantic ridge, maintained
by forecast traffic around the Azores, a slowed H5 pattern, both N
and S stream energy has the capability of strengthening through the
preferred H5 trof pattern over the E CONUS capturing tropical air
and energy N in advance while dragging S Arctic air to the rear. The
clash of airmasses, especially across the NE CONUS, atmospheric
response to restore balance, looking at a stormy pattern by the end
of the week and through the weekend to which will be addressed below.

*/ Friday into Saturday...

Preferred H5 trof evolving over E/NE CONUS, capturing both S and N
stream energy, transporting N highly anomalous tropical air while
swinging rearward cold, Arctic temperatures. Lift and QG-forcing
mechanisms apparent along conveyor belt motions as waves of low
pressure emerge along the baroclinic / cold frontal zone beneath
individual mid-level impulses. Acting upon deep column moisture with
high freezing level heights (upwards of 12 kft), efficient rainfall
processes apparent. Moderate to heavy at times, along with strong S
winds aloft and high dewpoint air, across remnant deep snowpack and
iced up rivers and tributaries, the potential for flooding exists as
well as damaging winds which will be discussed in short below along
with any headlines.

Heavy Rain / Flooding...

From a consensus of ensemble and probabilistic guidance, looking at
a tropical-source plume to be advected and forced upward through the
atmospheric layer by strongly convergent low-level (H925-85) winds
and attendant mid-level impulses beneath the right rear quadrant of
the upper level jet. Efficient warm rain processes and consideration
of a S/SW persistent stream of deep layer moisture, no surprise to
see probabilistic guidance highlighting the decent chance of storm
total rainfall amounts up to 4-inches especially over SE New England
with the potential of 1 to 2 inches in a 12-hour period, possibly as
short at 6-hours.

A remnant snowpack around 6 to 12 inches over much of S New England,
absorbing moisture out of the air and in some instances the ground,
have quickly gathered snow water equivalent measurements of around 2
inches upwards of 3 inches. Also need to consider the frozen ground
which simply aids the runoff of any liquid instead of leeching into
the ground.

Considering snow melt that will precede heavy rain, increasing S
winds and rising surface dewpoints that'll definitely eat the snow,
a lot of water going into the system from a very anomalous event.
Yes, snow pack will absorb some of the water, but there's a lot of
water going into the system. Feel the writing is on the wall. That
and potential isolated ice jams on the rivers, have gone ahead and
issued a FLOOD WATCH for the entire area. Not splitting hairs given
threats of either or are area-wide. The flood threat exacerbated by
aforementioned isolated ice jams along any rivers, and within urban
locations, any snow clogged drains.

As to rivers and streams, with enough thawing hours in advance and
during the storm, beginning Thursday afternoon, a foot of ice or
more on some of the rivers, there is the isolated possibility of ice
jams especially if the river height can exceed 3-times the thickness
of the ice promoting mechanical break-up. Also a dependence on what
happens N of us in the river / small-stream system. In all, ensemble
river forecast guidance highlighting a number of points to go into
minor to moderate flooding status into the weekend.

Strong / Damaging Winds...

A stout inversion in place with a pronounced warm-nose layer around
H95-85. Looking at two periods at the top of the inversion where S
winds will be sustained at hurricane force, during Friday for all of
S New England and around Saturday morning for SE New England. But a
question of whether mechanical mixing / precipitation drag from rain
could bring down faster winds to the surface, ensemble probabilities
signaling a strong chance of reaching 45 to 55 mph gusts. Hesitant
as CIPS Analogs off the 10.12z guidance have only a moderate chance
of 35 mph gusts, a lower nearly non-existent chance of gusts over 40
mph.

Certainly 2m temperature / dewpoint dependent, models and associated
soundings could be too cool, inversion less stout, greater ability
for winds to mix down to the surface. However low confidence at this
time, feel ensembles can't capture the small-scale inversion. Will
hold off on any wind headlines with this forecast.

Areas of Dense Fog...

Higher dewpoint air streaming over remnant snowpack as well as the
colder ocean waters, likely to get a combination of low clouds and/or
dense fog with visibility in spots down to a mile or less despite
the moderate to heavy rain threat as well as breezy S winds. Moisture
trapped beneath the aforementioned H95-85 warm nose, the stout inversion,
expecting soupy conditions and hazardous travel conditions. Highest
confidence along the S-coast and across the high terrain.

Ice Threat...

On Saturday, the second wave of low pressure sweeping N/E across S
New England, colder air on the cusp, waiting in the wings associated
with surface high pressure building S out of Canada to the rear of
the preferred H5 trof, there's the potential for anabatic cold front
processes to yield a period of freezing rain / wintry mix across the
interior NE CONUS.

A few things worth noting: 1.) dry within the dendritic growth zone,
2.) absent surface high pressure N/E, pronounced nearly 1050 mb N/W,
and 3.) per both surface winds and ageostrophic flow, indications of
W undercutting flow that lend to a deepening cold layer below H9
towards -10C, and 4.) cyclonic flow, low-level moisture, lift along
the anabatic cold front with some mid to upper level support with
additional energy ahead of a weak h5 trof axis beneath a continued
right-rear quadrant of the upper level jet.

Everything in perspective, there is the threat especially over N/W
MA of a period of freezing rain potentially transitioning to sleet
before all is said done. Will highlight in the HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK the potential threat, something we'll need to watch.

*/ Sunday onward...

A quick glance at the forecast, a period of cold weather as ushered
behind and through the preferred H5 trof pattern. Another Pacific
disturbance rotating through the flow, the baroclinic zone / cold
front pushed offshore, consensus of model guidance picking up on a
wave low potentially outside of the bench mark. Still a spread with
ensemble members, we likely will not have a better idea till we get
within 96 hours at a maximum. Behind the system, keep the cold air
in place but can't rule out a bump of milder air if the Pacific
pattern outlined in the overview continues, shots of milder air into
the CONUS, higher heights and colder air shunted N.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Friday/...

Today..Low to moderate confidence.  Timing is quite
uncertain but the potential for MVFR-IFR conditions
will increase later this morning and especially this
afternoon across the interior.  Some of the guidance
is also indicating the potential for fog developing
this afternoon...while other data holds that off until tonight.
Greatest risk for fog this afternoon will be across the
interior.

Tonight...Moderate confidence.  Low end MVFR to IFR/LIFR
conditions anticipated in low clouds and fog. Some of the fog
may become locally dense as high dewpoint air begins to overrun
the deep snow pack in place. LLWS also expected to increase
toward daybreak.

Friday...Moderate confidence. IFR to localized LIFR conditions
expected in low clouds,fog and increasing threat for heavy rain
increasing from west to east during the afternoon/evening. LLWS
also expected and a rumble or two of thunder can not be ruled
out. Strongest surface winds will likely occur across eastern
MA/RI where some southwest 35 to 40 knot wind gusts are
possible.

KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence. MVFR conditions may
overspread the terminal this afternoon perhaps lowing to IFR
thresholds sometime tonight.

KBDL Terminal...Low confidence.  Some guidance suggests that low clouds
and dense fog may overspread the terminal later today,but other
data suggests it may hold off until tonight.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...

Friday Night: Mainly IFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. RA,
areas BR.

Saturday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with
local gusts to 30 kt. RA likely, areas BR, chance FZRA.

Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Breezy.
Slight chance FZRA.

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible.

Sunday Night: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Friday/...

Today and Tonight...Moderate to high confidence. Southwest wind
gusts of 20 knots expected in the warm air advection pattern
through tonight. Some gusts to 25 knots possible across our
eastern most outer-waters where we will have small craft
headlines. The rest of the waters should generally remain below
criteria through tonight.

Friday...Moderate confidence. Increasing southwest low level jet
will allow for building seas and increasing winds across the
region. Strong small craft headlines are a sure bet...but the
potential exists for marginal gale force wind gusts during the
afternoon and evening. Highest risk for this will be nearshore
where better mixing resides. Opted to issue a Gale Watch for all
waters and later shifts can go with Advisories or upgrade to
warnings.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...

Friday: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to
11 ft. Rain, areas fog.

Friday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft. Rain, areas fog.
Visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Saturday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with local
gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft. Rain, areas fog,
chance of freezing rain. Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft.
Chance of rain, areas fog, slight chance of freezing rain.

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Sunday Night through Martin Luther King Jr Day: Winds less than
25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of snow.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Flood Watch from Friday morning through Saturday afternoon for
     CTZ002>004.
MA...Flood Watch from Friday morning through Saturday afternoon for
     MAZ002>024-026.
RI...Flood Watch from Friday morning through Saturday afternoon for
     RIZ001>008.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for ANZ250.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Frank
NEAR TERM...Frank
SHORT TERM...Frank
LONG TERM...Sipprell
AVIATION...Frank/Sipprell
MARINE...Frank/Sipprell

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Taunton MA
404 PM EST Wed Jan 10 2018

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-RIZ001>008-112115-
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-Western Franklin MA-
Eastern Franklin MA-Northern Worcester MA-Central Middlesex MA-
Western Essex MA-Eastern Essex MA-Western Hampshire MA-
Western Hampden MA-Eastern Hampshire MA-Eastern Hampden MA-
Southern Worcester MA-Western Norfolk MA-Southeast Middlesex MA-
Suffolk MA-Eastern Norfolk MA-Northern Bristol MA-
Western Plymouth MA-Eastern Plymouth MA-Southern Bristol MA-
Southern Plymouth MA-Barnstable MA-Dukes MA-Nantucket MA-
Northern Middlesex MA-Northwest Providence RI-
Southeast Providence RI-Western Kent RI-Eastern Kent RI-Bristol RI-
Washington RI-Newport RI-Block Island RI-
404 PM EST Wed Jan 10 2018

...FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Connecticut, all of
Massachusetts east of Berkshire County, and Rhode Island.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch

Saturday...
There is the threat of freezing rain across northern and western
portions of Massachusetts that may require a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256-112115-
Boston Harbor-Cape Cod Bay-Nantucket Sound-Vineyard Sound-
Buzzards Bay-Rhode Island Sound-Narragansett Bay-Block Island Sound-
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank National
Marine Sanctuary-Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard and
Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out to
20 nm South of Block Island-
404 PM EST Wed Jan 10 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Massachusetts and Rhode
Island coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Friday through Saturday...
There is a risk of southerly gales on all waters except the inner
harbors and sounds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

For the latest updates...please visit our webpage at
www.weather.gov/boston

You can follow us on Facebook at
www.facebook.com/NWSBoston

You can follow us on Twitter at
@NWSBoston