Special Weather Statement, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
251 PM MDT Mon May 28 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 251 PM MDT Mon May 28 2018

Strong to severe thunderstorms have been developing in the
mountains and foothills with nothing yet over the plains. The
Stratus deck has mostly dissipated over the southern two-thirds of
the Urban Corridor. There is some sun over most of the rest of
the plains. There is decent batch of synoptic scale energy getting
our way from the Four Corners area. Models show this well on the
QG Omega fields. Much of the plains show CAPE values over 2000
J/kg for this afternoon and evening. The threat of severe weather
will continue.  For Tuesday, there is still morning some CAPE
around during the afternoon, and there should more sun. We should
see another round of thunderstorms in the afternoon, but likely
not as strong is this afternoon/ evening's. For temperatures,
Tuesday's highs will be up to 3 C warmer then this afternoon's
highs.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 251 PM MDT Mon May 28 2018

Convection will continue to spread east across the plains Tuesday
evening, with a repeat performance of scattered afternoon and
evening storms on Wednesday. It looks like coverage should be
decent but strength limited.

Thursday and Friday will bring increasing southwest flow aloft
with dry air. There could still be some weak convection over the
mountains, but nothing else. Also could be a marginal fire
weather risk over South Park.

Only fair agreement in the models on a shortwave for late Friday
or early Saturday. Most have this being dry, with a surge of
westerly or northwest winds behind it, then a cold front bringing
air in from the north across the plains Saturday. This may bring
us back to low grade diurnal convection for Sunday and Monday,
though resuming southwest flow may still keep us relatively dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 251 PM MDT Mon May 28 2018

The winds are staying nearly due northerly at DIA this afternoon.
The hi-resolution models still show northwesterly winds at DIA by
02Z this evening. They never really show true drainage patterns
after 06Z. The other models do show drainage after 06Z. TSRAGS is
a good bet after 22Z well into this evening. Will go with BKN040
for ceilings well into this evening.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 251 PM MDT Mon May 28 2018

Heavy rains are expected with this afternoon and evening's strong
and severe convection. Will go with a Flash Flood Watch over the
northeast corner counties of Morgan, Washington, Logan, Phillips
and Sedgwick. Some areas in these counties had some decent
rainfall amounts from yesterday's convection.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch from 6 PM MDT this evening through late
tonight for COZ044-048>051.

&&

SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM....Gimmestad
AVIATION.....RJK
HYDROLOGY....RJK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1110 AM MDT Mon May 28 2018

COZ030>051-291715-
Jackson County Below 9000 Feet-
West Jackson and West Grand Counties Above 9000 Feet-
Grand and Summit Counties Below 9000 Feet-
South and East Jackson/Larimer/North and Northeast Grand/
Northwest Boulder Counties Above 9000 Feet-
South and Southeast Grand/West Central and Southwest Boulder/
Gilpin/Clear Creek/Summit/North and West Park Counties Above
9000 Feet-Larimer and Boulder Counties Between 6000 and 9000 Feet-
Jefferson and West Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet/Gilpin/Clear
Creek/Northeast Park Counties Below 9000 Feet-
Central and Southeast Park County-
Larimer County Below 6000 Feet/Northwest Weld County-
Boulder And Jefferson Counties Below 6000 Feet/West Broomfield
County-
North Douglas County Below 6000 Feet/Denver/West Adams and
Arapahoe Counties/East Broomfield County-
Elbert/Central and East Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet-
Northeast Weld County-Central and South Weld County-Morgan County-
Central and East Adams and Arapahoe Counties-
North and Northeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/North Lincoln
County-
Southeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/South Lincoln County-
Logan County-Washington County-Sedgwick County-Phillips County-
1110 AM MDT Mon May 28 2018

...SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INCLUDING LARGE HAIL,
DAMAGING WINDS, AND A COUPLE TORNADOES...

This hazardous weather outlook is for northeast and north central
Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A few showers and Thunderstorms are beginning to develop over the
mountains at this. Showers and Thunderstorms will get onto the
plains after 1 PM. Sufficient daytime heating for severe
thunderstorms may be curtailed by the low cloud deck now in place
over most of the plains. Any storms that become severe will be
capable of producing very large hail, damaging winds, and even a
couple tornadoes. At this time, the main threat of any tornadoes
would occur from eastern Elbert, Lincoln and southern Washington
Counties by late afternoon. Heavy rainfall and minor flooding of
low lying areas will also be a concern as the storms become more
widespread over the northeastern plains late this afternoon and
evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected to
develop on Tuesday and Wednesday. The threat of severe storms
is low. Thursday through Sunday should be dry and hot.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed after 2 PM.

RJK/Gimmestad

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
249 PM MDT MON MAY 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0246 PM     HAIL             4 SSE BROOKVALE         39.58N 105.40W
05/28/2018  M1.00 INCH       CLEAR CREEK        CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Denver CO
255 PM MDT MON MAY 28 2018

COZ036-282145-
Jefferson and West Douglas Counties Above  6000 Feet/Gilpin/Clear
Creek/Northeast Park Counties Below 9000 Feet CO-
255 PM MDT MON MAY 28 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CLEAR CREEK AND
NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM MDT...

At 255 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Evergreen, or 22 miles west of Denver, moving northeast at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Evergreen, Morrison, Tiny Town, Kittredge, Idledale, Indian Hills,
Brookvale and Bergen Park.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for
central Colorado.

LAT...LON 3965 10546 3964 10544 3964 10543 3967 10544
      3966 10541 3967 10540 3968 10540 3969 10542
      3979 10532 3961 10516 3955 10539 3959 10541
      3958 10543 3960 10545 3959 10548 3961 10550
TIME...MOT...LOC 2055Z 235DEG 10KT 3964 10538

KRIEDERMAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
317 PM MDT MON MAY 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0253 PM     HAIL             1 S EVERGREEN           39.62N 105.34W
05/28/2018  M1.00 INCH       JEFFERSON          CO   PUBLIC

0246 PM     HAIL             4 SSE BROOKVALE         39.58N 105.40W
05/28/2018  M1.00 INCH       CLEAR CREEK        CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
323 PM MDT MON MAY 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0258 PM     HAIL             EVERGREEN               39.63N 105.34W
05/28/2018  M1.25 INCH       JEFFERSON          CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0246 PM     HAIL             4 SSE BROOKVALE         39.58N 105.40W
05/28/2018  M1.00 INCH       CLEAR CREEK        CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
325 PM MDT MON MAY 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0258 PM     HAIL             EVERGREEN               39.63N 105.34W
05/28/2018  M1.25 INCH       JEFFERSON          CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0253 PM     HAIL             1 S EVERGREEN           39.62N 105.34W
05/28/2018  M1.00 INCH       JEFFERSON          CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0246 PM     HAIL             4 SSE BROOKVALE         39.58N 105.40W
05/28/2018  M1.00 INCH       CLEAR CREEK        CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Denver CO
421 PM MDT MON MAY 28 2018

COZ043-282300-
Central and South Weld County CO-
421 PM MDT MON MAY 28 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL WELD COUNTY UNTIL
500 PM MDT...

At 421 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles north of Keenesburg, or 21 miles southeast of Greeley, moving
northeast at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Keenesburg, Riverside Reservoir and Roggen.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for
northeastern Colorado.

LAT...LON 4040 10415 4029 10415 4010 10450 4022 10463
      4052 10432
TIME...MOT...LOC 2221Z 222DEG 20KT 4019 10449

KRIEDERMAN