Severe Thunderstorm Warning 84, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

532 
WWUS55 KBOU 130945
SVSBOU

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Denver CO
345 AM MDT WED JUN 13 2018

COC073-131000-
/O.CON.KBOU.SV.W.0084.000000T0000Z-180613T1000Z/
Lincoln CO-
345 AM MDT WED JUN 13 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM MDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY...

At 345 AM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 8 miles north of
Karval, or 30 miles south of Limon, moving southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect damage 
         to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles.

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
southeastern Lincoln County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3876 10364 3894 10363 3898 10332 3872 10334
TIME...MOT...LOC 0945Z 292DEG 10KT 3885 10352 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

MEIER

439 
WWUS55 KBOU 131000
SVSBOU

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Denver CO
400 AM MDT WED JUN 13 2018

COC073-131009-
/O.EXP.KBOU.SV.W.0084.000000T0000Z-180613T1000Z/
Lincoln CO-
400 AM MDT WED JUN 13 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 400 AM MDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However small hail
is still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 3876 10364 3894 10363 3898 10332 3872 10334
TIME...MOT...LOC 0959Z 280DEG 6KT 3885 10349 

$$

MEIER

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
954 PM MDT Tue Jun 12 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 951 PM MDT Tue Jun 12 2018

Minor changes this evening for band of clouds upstream of Denver,
potential for some low clouds over the eastern border in the
morning, and slightly cooler lows on the plains tonight.
Everything else looks good. Convective potential tomorrow may be
more toward evening rather than afternoon, it still looks fairly
capped.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 254 PM MDT Tue Jun 12 2018

Fires and smoke are the rule this afternoon. A new fire started,
in west central Summit County just west of Dillon Reservoir just
before noon today. The latest 3.9 satellite pictures are showing
the fire decreasing in temperature. Over the plains, there are 50s
F dew points over the far southeastern CWA and northeastern
corner. Will go with some pops in these areas. Unless there is
some strong outflow, pops are not likely in the rest of the dry
CWA. The model CAPE values are fairly high in these areas this
evening. Better moisture is progged over more of the plains by
Wednesday afternoon. The QPF fields show a tad of measurable
rainfall over the plains this evening and again Wednesday
afternoon. Amounts are pretty light however. Will hit the pops the
highest where the moisture is this evening. on Wednesday will go
with 10-30% for the foothills and southern half of the plains.
Temperatures will be 1-4 C warmer on Wednesday afternoon than
today's readings.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 254 PM MDT Tue Jun 12 2018

For Wednesday night into Thursday the upper level jet has shifted to
the North with a extensive ridge over the southern CONUS. The
cyclonic flow will help to pull in moisture from the decaying
Hurricane Bud over the Pacific through the end of the week. For
Thursday the flow aloft will become increasingly WSW with a building
lee side surface trough over the eastern plains. Models show an
embedded shortwave in the flow that could help fire off some
convection late Wednesday into early Thursday over the plains. The
GFS is more excited about the storm coverage than the EC or NAM so
will keep low pops in the forecast for now.

By Friday flow aloft becomes more SW as an upper trough moves into
the Pacific NW. Various models show increased moisture from the
above mentioned tropical system getting entrained into the flow
helping to increase PW values through Saturday. Thursday
temperatures will remain above average with highs reaching into the
90s on the plains and 60s to 70s in the mountains. A weak surface
front will push south out of Wyoming by Friday afternoon possibly
increasing thunderstorm chances as moisture from "Bud" will help to
raise dewpoints and therefore instability. The best chances would be
in the mountains and along the frontal boundary, but will depend on
when it finally moves through the plains with max instability. There
will be a gradual cooling through the weekend with the increase in
mid level moisture with highs getting into the 80s on the plains and
60s in the mountains and even 70s possible by Monday.

For the weekend the models have a strong lee side low over the
eastern plains of CO helping to keep most storm chances at bay. The
largest coverage will be over the West slope as remnants of "Bud"
makes its way across the region. By Sunday the moisture shifts
east over the Central mountains and eastern plains increasing
shower and thunderstorm chances. The cooling pattern will continue
into early next week with highs in the mid 70s possible by Monday
under mostly cloudy skies.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 951 PM MDT Tue Jun 12 2018

VFR through Wednesday. Winds should become more easterly shortly
and then rotate to southerly by 08z. There could be a period of
south winds gusting to 20 knots in the 12z-18z period. Isolated
storms are possible after 22z, with greater coverage possible
after 00z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 254 PM MDT Tue Jun 12 2018

Temperatures are expected to warm up a bit on Wednesday, but
models also show increased moisture on Wednesday. Wind speeds are
not expected to be very strong on Wednesday afternoon.

As moisture increases in the mid and upper levels, areas closer to
the surface will remain dry. For Thursday over the mountains some
high-based convection will be possible. The storms will be
isolated in nature, but conditions will need to be monitored for
increasing coverage and the possible need for a watch.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

UPDATE...Gimmestad
SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Gimmestad
FIRE WEATHER...RJK/Bowen

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1025 AM MDT Tue Jun 12 2018

COZ030>051-131630-
Jackson County Below 9000 Feet-
West Jackson and West Grand Counties Above 9000 Feet-
Grand and Summit Counties Below 9000 Feet-
South and East Jackson/Larimer/North and Northeast Grand/
Northwest Boulder Counties Above 9000 Feet-
South and Southeast Grand/West Central and Southwest Boulder/
Gilpin/Clear Creek/Summit/North and West Park Counties Above
9000 Feet-Larimer and Boulder Counties Between 6000 and 9000 Feet-
Jefferson and West Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet/Gilpin/Clear
Creek/Northeast Park Counties Below 9000 Feet-
Central and Southeast Park County-
Larimer County Below 6000 Feet/Northwest Weld County-
Boulder And Jefferson Counties Below 6000 Feet/West Broomfield
County-
North Douglas County Below 6000 Feet/Denver/West Adams and
Arapahoe Counties/East Broomfield County-
Elbert/Central and East Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet-
Northeast Weld County-Central and South Weld County-Morgan County-
Central and East Adams and Arapahoe Counties-
North and Northeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/North Lincoln
County-
Southeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/South Lincoln County-
Logan County-Washington County-Sedgwick County-Phillips County-
1025 AM MDT Tue Jun 12 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for northeast and north central
Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Dry conditions and west winds gusting up to 25 mph will increase
the fire danger over north central Colorado today. Along the
Front Range and across the eastern plains, moisture will increase
due to easterly winds. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible
over and near the Palmer Divide and eastward into Lincoln county.
A couple of storms could become severe with large hail and
damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Temperatures will increase through the week, climbing back into
the 90s Wednesday through Friday. Wednesday will also feature a
chance for showers and thunderstorms across the high terrain,
Palmer Divide and eastern plains. Thunderstorm chances continue
through Thursday. Cooler and wetter pattern for the weekend as a
significant increase in subtropical moisture from a decaying
tropical system affects the area. This will result in a better
chance of showers and thunderstorms over the region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today or tonight.