Severe Thunderstorm Warning 39, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

783 
WWUS55 KBOU 241851
SVSBOU

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Denver CO
1251 PM MDT THU MAY 24 2018

COC073-241915-
/O.CON.KBOU.SV.W.0039.000000T0000Z-180524T1915Z/
Lincoln CO-
1251 PM MDT THU MAY 24 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 PM MDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN LINCOLN COUNTY...

At 1249 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles northwest
of Forder, or 35 miles south of Limon, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. Hail damage to 
         vehicles is expected.

Locations impacted include...
Forder.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3869 10389 3883 10388 3885 10365 3861 10369
TIME...MOT...LOC 1849Z 283DEG 11KT 3875 10380 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

KRIEDERMAN

993 
WWUS55 KBOU 241913
SVSBOU

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Denver CO
113 PM MDT THU MAY 24 2018

COC073-241923-
/O.EXP.KBOU.SV.W.0039.000000T0000Z-180524T1915Z/
Lincoln CO-
113 PM MDT THU MAY 24 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN LINCOLN COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 115 PM MDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire. Some small hail 
and gusty winds to 40 mph may still be possible. 

LAT...LON 3869 10389 3883 10388 3885 10365 3861 10369
TIME...MOT...LOC 1913Z 283DEG 11KT 3874 10372 

$$

KRIEDERMAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1053 AM MDT Thu May 24 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1053 AM MDT Thu May 24 2018

No changes to the forecast at this time. The airmass is much drier
than yesterday, and initial cloud development over the mountains
today is much less than yesterday. Enough moisture should still
linger for some thunderstorms to develop, but only brief rain and
small hail are expected. Flow aloft has transitioned to more
westerly today which should lead to showers developing over the
foothills and dissipating as they move over the plains and
entrain the drier air. Gusty winds could also accompany the
decaying showers.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 330 AM MDT Thu May 24 2018

High pressure ridge aloft now over the Great Basin will be
building into Colorado over the next 24 hours. Overall trends will
be drier conditions as the flow aloft weakens and shifts a bit
more westerly by late today. Expect only a 1-2 degree warming
today as 700mb temperatures rise slightly to around +12c. Not much
moisture to work with today so only a very slight threat of
showers/storms over higher mountains and elevated terrain over the
Palmer Divide. Even that might be too much. No severe storms
expected with low CAPE and very little shear to work with.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 AM MDT Thu May 24 2018

For Friday, the upper level closed low will be into the West coast
of CA with SW flow aloft over CO. Increased ridging will help to
bring 700 mb temps into the +13C range with highs in the upper 80s
over the plains. Conditions will be dry and stable with no
thunderstorm activity expected. These conditions will persist
through Saturday where the warmest temperatures of the week will
occur. Highs over the plains are expected to break the 90 degree
mark with 60s and 70s in the high country. This could be the warmest
day we have seen so far this year for some areas so please take
precautions and always remember to Look Before You Lock!

By Sunday, the upper low will have pushed east into the Great Basin
bringing upper level flow more southerly. Lee side closed lows will
set up over the plains by the afternoon helping to pull in moisture
rich SE flow. An embedded shortwave seen on model QG fields will
move through the region from the SSW sometime on Sunday. At this
time it appears most of the plains will be too stable for much
activity but the mountains and far NE plains near the KS and NE
border could see some isolated storm development by the afternoon.
Main concerns would be gusty winds with dry low levels and an
inverted-V sounding. Highs on Sunday will continue to be warmer than
normal with temperatures in the mid to upper 80s.

For the start of next week the low becomes disjointed and slightly
stacked. Models differ on the exact evolution of the low center
with he GFS splitting the energy and the EC taking it North into
southern Idaho. Either way, Colorado remains under SW flow with
ongoing embedded shortwaves bringing a chance of afternoon showers
and thunderstorms to the region. Temperatures will fall closer to
seasonal normals with highs in the upper 70s through Tuesday before
gradually increasing back into the 80s by mid week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1053 AM MDT Thu May 24 2018

No aviation impacts expected today. Showers that form over the
foothills should dissipate as the move away from the higher
terrain, causing erratic gusty winds. Winds will be mostly light
and variable through the afternoon, except near decaying showers.
Later tonight, winds will transition to drainage southerlies.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

UPDATE...Dankers
SHORT TERM...Entrekin
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Dankers

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1042 AM MDT Thu May 24 2018

COZ030>051-251645-
Jackson County Below 9000 Feet-
West Jackson and West Grand Counties Above 9000 Feet-
Grand and Summit Counties Below 9000 Feet-
South and East Jackson/Larimer/North and Northeast Grand/
Northwest Boulder Counties Above 9000 Feet-
South and Southeast Grand/West Central and Southwest Boulder/
Gilpin/Clear Creek/Summit/North and West Park Counties Above
9000 Feet-Larimer and Boulder Counties Between 6000 and 9000 Feet-
Jefferson and West Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet/Gilpin/Clear
Creek/Northeast Park Counties Below 9000 Feet-
Central and Southeast Park County-
Larimer County Below 6000 Feet/Northwest Weld County-
Boulder And Jefferson Counties Below 6000 Feet/West Broomfield
County-
North Douglas County Below 6000 Feet/Denver/West Adams and
Arapahoe Counties/East Broomfield County-
Elbert/Central and East Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet-
Northeast Weld County-Central and South Weld County-Morgan County-
Central and East Adams and Arapahoe Counties-
North and Northeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/North Lincoln
County-
Southeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/South Lincoln County-
Logan County-Washington County-Sedgwick County-Phillips County-
1042 AM MDT Thu May 24 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for northeast and north central
Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Only a few late day showers and thunderstorms are expected over
the higher mountains and across the higher terrain of Elbert and
Lincoln counties. The thunderstorms will produce brief rain, small
hail and gusty winds. Severe storms are not expected through
tonight. Dry and warm conditions will prevail across the rest of
northeast Colorado today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Dry and warm conditions will prevail Friday and Saturday with
highs reaching into the lower 90s. These will be the warmest days
so far this year for some areas on the plains, so precautions are
advised and always "Look before you Lock!"

An approaching storm system will bring increased chances of
showers and thunderstorms to the mountains and eastern plains
Sunday through the middle of next week. Temperatures will hover
between the upper 70s and mid 80s through Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.