Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

999 
WWUS55 KBOU 142033
SVSBOU

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Denver CO
233 PM MDT MON MAY 14 2018

COC005-039-142045-
/O.CON.KBOU.SV.W.0022.000000T0000Z-180514T2045Z/
Elbert CO-Arapahoe CO-
233 PM MDT MON MAY 14 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM MDT
FOR NORTH CENTRAL ELBERT AND EASTERN ARAPAHOE COUNTIES...

At 232 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Deer Trail, or
30 miles northwest of Limon, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Deer Trail.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3956 10423 3974 10409 3974 10390 3950 10397
TIME...MOT...LOC 2032Z 274DEG 12KT 3960 10407 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

SCHLATTER

056 
WWUS55 KBOU 142046
SVSBOU

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Denver CO
246 PM MDT MON MAY 14 2018

COC005-039-142056-
/O.EXP.KBOU.SV.W.0022.000000T0000Z-180514T2045Z/
Elbert CO-Arapahoe CO-
246 PM MDT MON MAY 14 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL ELBERT AND
EASTERN ARAPAHOE COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.  A 
new severe thunderstom warning is in effect until 330 PM for a storm 
just northwest of Agate.

LAT...LON 3956 10423 3974 10409 3974 10390 3950 10397
TIME...MOT...LOC 2046Z 274DEG 12KT 3960 10402 

$$

SCHLATTER

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1116 AM MDT Mon May 14 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1110 AM MDT Mon May 14 2018

T-storms have begun to fire over the Front Range to the west and
southwest of the Denver Metro area right on time, as per the HRRR,
ARW and RAP. Should see this trend of t-storm development for the
next few hours, however the HiRes models indicated easterly storm
trajectories. So far, this initial wave of storms were tracking
northeast, carried along by a southwesterly mean layer flow.
With storm intensification as their updrafts strengthen over the
plains, suspect we'll see a turn to more easterly storm tracks as
indicated by the latest HRRR. Hail anywhere from dime to quarter
size a good possibility with the stronger storms, and even golf
ball size with storms forming south of I-70, especially over the
Palmer Divide in Douglas and Elbert Counties 2-4 hours from now.
New zone forecast has been issued to reflect this severe weather
potential. Latest SWO from SPC still has nearly all of northeast/
east central Colorado in a marginal risk for severe today. The
far northeast corner of the state where temps are cooler, the
severe weather risk will be lowest today.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 434 AM MDT Mon May 14 2018

Some subtle changes from yesterday may mean a little less of a
severe threat today, but a marginal risk still exists. The entire
zone of upslope flow and the edge of the cool moist airmass has
sagged south a bit. Temperatures will be slightly cooler today,
but this will likely be offset by a little cooling aloft, so we
will remain marginal for surface based convection. Winds should be
lighter over the northern portion of the plains, with more
substantial upslope limited to the Palmer Divide region, and
possibly mainly on the south side. This means the best surface
convergence should be there today. Instead of the warmer, drier
air on the south side of the convergence zone, it will be modified
cool moist air that will be a bit more buoyant than the air
further north. Upper level forcing is harder to find in the models
today, but there's a hint of a shortwave in the cloud patterns
from eastern Utah to southern New Mexico, which would mean we
could have a little lift over us this afternoon to help with an
otherwise marginal environment. Also, the low clouds and drizzle
is a bit less solid this morning, which could point toward a bit
more midday sunshine.

What does this mean? Still a moist but barely warm enough
environment with convection helped by weak forcing aloft and
surface convergence that will likely be focused on the Palmer
Divide. The last few runs of the HRRR have had one supercell
moving east across Douglas, Elbert, and Lincoln counties during
the afternoon, with weaker and less organized convection
elsewhere. With some sun...not guaranteed...we could get CAPES of
1000-1500 J/kg in that area for some large hail, and the wind
structure would still give a reasonable threat of tornadoes if a
storm can maintain supercell structure. Further north, expect
CAPEs of 500-1000 J/kg with a lower risk of marginal hail and much
less of a tornado threat.

Once again, there should be a steady feed of moisture overnight
for redevelopment of low clouds/fog/drizzle. However, this may
again be a bit more tenuous as the best of all this sags a bit
more southward each night and there should be less forcing for
precipitation in the evening to feed the low level moisture. One
more thing--with the slight cooling the snow level will drop in
the mountains. Still expect mainly rain with little impact for
most of the passes, but there will likely be some accumulation
above 10 or 11 thousand feet where there are heavier showers.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 345 AM MDT Mon May 14 2018

A weakening upper closed low over northern Nevada on Tuesday
morning will push northward into Idaho by Wednesday morning.
Another upper low will move into California and be over the Great
Basin by 12Z Thursday morning. The flow aloft for our forecast
area will stay pretty weak and southwesterly Tuesday and Tuesday
night. It will stay weak on Wednesday with a more westerly
direction progged. It returns to southwesterly Wednesday
overnight. There is benign synoptic scale energy expected for the
CWA Tuesday through Wednesday, with some weak upward vertical
velocity Wednesday night. The low level wind fields continue to
show upslope flow on Tuesday. Tuesday night through Wednesday
night feature more normal diurnal wind patterns. The ample
precipitation pattern of late should hang on one more day;
Tuesday. For moisture, the low level dew points stay in the mid
40s to mid 50s F Tuesday into mid day Wednesday, then they
decrease. There is pretty decent CAPE progged for the eastern
2/3rds of the CWA during the afternoon and evening Tuesday. By
late day Wednesday, there is pretty good CAPE over the far eastern
CWA. The lapse rates on the cross sections show the steepest to be
in place late day Wednesday. Soundings on Wednesday also show a
decent shear profile for strong thunderstorm production for the
eastern half of the plains. For pops, will keep the "chance"s
going for much of the CWA Tuesday and Tuesday evening. On
Wednesday, best pops will be over the far east late in the day.
For temperatures, Tuesday's warm up a little from today's and
Wednesday's come up 3-7 C from Tuesday's. For the later days,
Thursday through Sunday, there is an upper closed low over the
Great Basin Thursday morning. This one actually is supposed to
move east, but it weakens significantly as it is over Colorado
Friday night into Saturday afternoon. Saturday night and Sunday
shows an upper ridge over Colorado. As a result, models have
plenty of moisture and QPF over the CWA from Friday afternoon into
Sunday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1110 AM MDT Mon May 14 2018

MVFR Ceilings will prevail today in the Denver area with scattered
showers and thunderstorms tracking east-northeast across the
metro area through the afternoon. Small hail and brief heavy rain
possible with all storms, with possibly one or two storms going
severe with quarter to half dollar size hail stones. Strong wind
gusts not as much of a risk today because of the moist environment
in place. With the storm precipitation, could see CIGs as low as
1500-2500 ft AGL and VSBYS as low as 2-3 miles.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

UPDATE...Baker
SHORT TERM...Gimmestad
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...Baker

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1123 AM MDT Mon May 14 2018

COZ030>051-151730-
Jackson County Below 9000 Feet-
West Jackson and West Grand Counties Above 9000 Feet-
Grand and Summit Counties Below 9000 Feet-
South and East Jackson/Larimer/North and Northeast Grand/
Northwest Boulder Counties Above 9000 Feet-
South and Southeast Grand/West Central and Southwest Boulder/
Gilpin/Clear Creek/Summit/North and West Park Counties Above
9000 Feet-Larimer and Boulder Counties Between 6000 and 9000 Feet-
Jefferson and West Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet/Gilpin/Clear
Creek/Northeast Park Counties Below 9000 Feet-
Central and Southeast Park County-
Larimer County Below 6000 Feet/Northwest Weld County-
Boulder And Jefferson Counties Below 6000 Feet/West Broomfield
County-
North Douglas County Below 6000 Feet/Denver/West Adams and
Arapahoe Counties/East Broomfield County-
Elbert/Central and East Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet-
Northeast Weld County-Central and South Weld County-Morgan County-
Central and East Adams and Arapahoe Counties-
North and Northeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/North Lincoln
County-
Southeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/South Lincoln County-
Logan County-Washington County-Sedgwick County-Phillips County-
1123 AM MDT Mon May 14 2018

...Marginal Risk for Severe Thunderstorms for Much of Northeast
Colorado Today...

This hazardous weather outlook is for northeast and north central
Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A few severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening. The threat of severe weather today is greatest on the
plains along and south of Interstate 76 from 1 PM to 7 PM. Areas
north of there will have a lower risk for severe weather, although
storms passing over the is area late this afternoon and evening
could produce small hail and brief heavy rainfall. The main
threat will be hail up to golf ball size. Isolated tornadoes are
also possible. Some of the thunderstorms on the plains may also
produce heavy rainfall, up to an inch of rain in under 40 minutes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Late day scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across
the forecast area Tuesday and Wednesday. On Wednesday some storms
could become strong with the potential to produce large hail.
Thursday will be warmer and drier. Friday through Saturday night,
the next upper level storm will bring increased moisture,
precipitation, and a cooler airmass to the forecast area. Sunday
will be dry and warmer again.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed after 1 PM.

Baker/Kriederman

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1158 AM MDT MON MAY 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1156 AM     HAIL             1 WNW LAKEWOOD          39.70N 105.14W
05/14/2018  M0.75 INCH       JEFFERSON          CO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            REPORT VIA TWITTER.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Denver CO
1209 PM MDT MON MAY 14 2018

COZ036-039-040-141830-
Boulder And Jefferson Counties Below 6000 Feet/West Broomfield County
CO-
North Douglas County Below 6000 Feet/Denver/West Adams and Arapahoe
Counties/East Broomfield County CO-
Jefferson and West Douglas Counties Above  6000 Feet/Gilpin/Clear
Creek/Northeast Park Counties Below 9000 Feet CO-
1209 PM MDT MON MAY 14 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN ARAPAHOE...DENVER...
NORTHEASTERN JEFFERSON AND SOUTHWESTERN ADAMS COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 PM
MDT...

At 1205 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
western Denver, moving east at 15 mph.

Dime to penny size hail has been reported with this storm.  The
storm is also generating accumulating hail across far northeast
Denver, leading to locally hazarding driving conditions.

Locations impacted include...
Denver, western Aurora, Lakewood, southern Thornton, southeastern
Arvada, southern Westminster, western Centennial, southwestern
Commerce City, Littleton, eastern Northglenn, Englewood, eastern
Wheat Ridge, Greenwood Village, Evergreen, Federal Heights, Sheridan,
Morrison, Tiny Town, Red Rocks Park and Indian Hills.

LAT...LON 3952 10524 3961 10531 3993 10490 3962 10484
TIME...MOT...LOC 1805Z 259DEG 14KT 3971 10505

SCHLATTER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Denver CO
1234 PM MDT MON MAY 14 2018

COZ036-040-041-141915-
Elbert/Central and East Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet CO-
North Douglas County Below 6000 Feet/Denver/West Adams and Arapahoe
Counties/East Broomfield County CO-
Jefferson and West Douglas Counties Above  6000 Feet/Gilpin/Clear
Creek/Northeast Park Counties Below 9000 Feet CO-
1234 PM MDT MON MAY 14 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL DOUGLAS COUNTY UNTIL 115
PM MDT...

At 1233 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles east of Sprucewood, or 27 miles south of Denver, moving
northeast at 20 mph.

Pea to dime size hail will be possible with this storm.  This storm
may also generate accumulating hail on roadways leading to localized
hazardous driving conditions.

Locations impacted include...
Castle Rock, Parker, Roxborough Park, Beverly Hills, Perry Park,
Surrey Ridge, Louviers, Devils Head, Sedalia, Franktown, Sprucewood
and The Pinery.

LAT...LON 3924 10511 3942 10513 3956 10477 3924 10469
TIME...MOT...LOC 1833Z 239DEG 16KT 3934 10505

SCHLATTER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Denver CO
1243 PM MDT MON MAY 14 2018

COZ036-039-040-141930-
Boulder And Jefferson Counties Below 6000 Feet/West Broomfield County
CO-
North Douglas County Below 6000 Feet/Denver/West Adams and Arapahoe
Counties/East Broomfield County CO-
Jefferson and West Douglas Counties Above  6000 Feet/Gilpin/Clear
Creek/Northeast Park Counties Below 9000 Feet CO-
1243 PM MDT MON MAY 14 2018

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 1241 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms
along a line extending from Golden to Lakewood to Denver and Aurora.
Movement was northeast at 20 mph.

Pea size hail will be possible with these storms, along with brief
heavy rainfall which will lead to significant ponding on roadways.

Locations impacted include...
Denver, Aurora, Lakewood, southern Thornton, southwestern Centennial,
northwestern Highlands Ranch, Commerce City, Littleton, Brighton,
Englewood, Greenwood Village, Denver International Airport, Sheridan,
Morrison, Manila Village, Buckley AFB, Tiny Town, Chatfield
Reservoir, Watkins and D.I.A Terminal and Concourses.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3957 10529 3996 10480 3985 10450 3976 10451
      3949 10510
TIME...MOT...LOC 1841Z 231DEG 16KT 3965 10521 3956 10504

SCHLATTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
113 PM MDT MON MAY 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0108 PM     HAIL             3 WSW THE PINERY        39.44N 104.78W
05/14/2018  M1.00 INCH       DOUGLAS            CO   PUBLIC

            REPORT VIA TWITTER.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Denver CO
118 PM MDT MON MAY 14 2018

COZ040-041-045-142000-
Elbert/Central and East Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet CO-
Central and East Adams and Arapahoe Counties CO-
North Douglas County Below 6000 Feet/Denver/West Adams and Arapahoe
Counties/East Broomfield County CO-
118 PM MDT MON MAY 14 2018

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 117 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
southwestern Aurora, or 15 miles southeast of Denver, moving east at
15 mph.

Pea to half inch hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Aurora, eastern Centennial, northwestern Parker, southeastern Denver
International Airport, Bennett, Watkins, Manila Village, Arapahoe
Park and Buckley AFB.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3956 10482 3969 10482 3981 10471 3993 10448
      3957 10436
TIME...MOT...LOC 1917Z 270DEG 12KT 3960 10473

SCHLATTER