Severe Thunderstorm Warning 178, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

836 
WWUS55 KBOU 050046
SVSBOU

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Denver CO
646 PM MDT WED JUL 4 2018

COC005-050055-
/O.CAN.KBOU.SV.W.0178.000000T0000Z-180705T0100Z/
Arapahoe CO-
646 PM MDT WED JUL 4 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN ARAPAHOE COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3983 10387 3989 10409 4000 10397 3999 10371
      3984 10372
TIME...MOT...LOC 0045Z 207DEG 25KT 4010 10372 

$$

COC001-050100-
/O.CON.KBOU.SV.W.0178.000000T0000Z-180705T0100Z/
Adams CO-
646 PM MDT WED JUL 4 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM MDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN ADAMS COUNTY...

At 645 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 4 miles east of
Adena School, or 11 miles south of Fort Morgan, moving northeast at
30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. Hail damage to 
         vehicles is expected.

Locations impacted include...
Leader and Shamrock. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3983 10387 3989 10409 4000 10397 3999 10371
      3984 10372
TIME...MOT...LOC 0045Z 207DEG 25KT 4010 10372 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

RJK

915 
WWUS55 KBOU 050057
SVSBOU

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Denver CO
657 PM MDT WED JUL 4 2018

COC001-050107-
/O.EXP.KBOU.SV.W.0178.000000T0000Z-180705T0100Z/
Adams CO-
657 PM MDT WED JUL 4 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN ADAMS COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 700 PM MDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and has exited the warned area. Therefore, the warning will
be allowed to expire.

LAT...LON 3983 10387 3989 10409 4000 10397 3999 10371
      3984 10372
TIME...MOT...LOC 0057Z 207DEG 25KT 4017 10367 

$$

RJK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
604 PM MDT Wed Jul 4 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 541 PM MDT Wed Jul 4 2018

Showers and thunderstorms, some marginal severe across county
warning area. Reports of hail from pea up to quarter size, and
wind gust to 53kts reported at KLIC. Expect storms to continue to
fire through the evening along multiple outflow boundaries and
earlier frontal boundary that passed through the region. Storms to
taper off 10 pm-midnight but will be around to impact some
fireworks displays.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 230 PM MDT Wed Jul 4 2018

The frontal boundary pushed through earlier this morning turning sfc
winds more northeasterly and increasing moisture over the eastern
plains. Upslope will aid in convective initiation as seen on
visible satellite. There are a few difference scenarios for the
late afternoon and evening depending on how the storms evolve and
the upstream atmospheric conditions. Instability and moisture is
decent over the Front Range with values in the upper 40s to low 50s,
but is much better to the east over Logan, Washington and into KS
where they are in the low 60s. Storms may struggle to move off the
foothills and get into the better instability and moisture during
prime heating time. Latest short term and hires models show mixed
bag of solutions with some returns over the Metro area after 3 pm
and pushing ENE of Denver after 7 pm and continuing to evolve into
the evening hours as it pushes into NE and KS. If storms are able to
make it that far NE, then it will tap into the greater instability
and may be able to produce a severe storm or two with winds and
golfball size hail. Moisture increased two times from yesterday as
seen on morning soundings so storms could also produce copious
lightning and brief moderate rain. Models are also indicating
redevelopment along the southern foothills and Palmer late this
evening after 9 pm that could be the product of strong outflows. If
this comes to fruition some evening firework shows could be in
danger of an isolated storm moving over. This bares watching for the
various outdoor activities in the area.

The storms will move out of the region overnight and some areas on
the plains could see some fog development into the early morning
hours. The upper ridge will move over the state on Thursday pulling
in a 600 mb high. Outside of that instability increases with ML CAPE
over the Denver area in the 1000-1500 j/kg range and upwards of 2500
j/kg to the east. Moisture values continue to be high with PWs well
over one inch. It will be difficult to get large storms with the
ridge over but widespread convection will be possible given
moisture, instability and the aid of an exiting jet max. Storms will
start in the afternoon over the high terrain and plains and continue
into the early evening hours. Moderate to heavy rain will be
possible and with the weak flow aloft storms will not be moving fast
so some minor flooding could occur along with gusty winds and
lighting. Temperatures for Thursday will be cooler than today with
highs only getting into the mid 80s on the plains and 60s in the
mountains.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 230 PM MDT Wed Jul 4 2018

Scattered thunderstorms will continue Thursday evening, a few of
which may be severe given MLCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg. Heavy rain
threat will also be in play with a plume of higher mid level
Specific Humidity shifting across the area. That will drive
Precipitable Water (PW) values up to 1.1 to 1.3 inches across the
plains. Storms will also be slow moving with very weak steering
winds, so expect pulse severe storms with very heavy rain,
isolated large hail, and damaging wet microbursts. We do not
anticipate widespread heavy rainfall at this time, but some areas
will likely see a little too much with potential for local
flooding in burn scars and urban/low lying areas, while other
spots will see little if any rain in typical Colorado fashion.

Most storms should be weakening by late in the evening with
gradual clearing then expected overnight.

By Friday, the heart of a 600 decameter 500 mb high will
retrograde into western Colorado and eastern Utah. This will bring
a drier northerly component aloft across the plains, and usually
this type of pattern will cap off the lower elevations. Latest
model soundings back this up with a developing mid level
inversion. Temperatures will turn hotter again, and this trend
will continue into the weekend with the same pattern holding in
place. The plains will be reaching the 90s each day. In the
mountains, the capping inversion will be weaker due to the
elevated terrain and sufficient mid level moisture trapped under
the ridge, so we'll continue to mention isolated to scattered
storm coverage each day. Fire danger may remain elevated during
this period with possible lightning starts and very warm
temperatures, but hopefully we'll see a little rain from these
storms. Meanwhile, the eastern plains and Palmer Divide may
actually see fire danger increase due to stronger southerly winds.

We don't see a whole lot of change to this weather pattern through
the first half of next week. The GFS is pointing toward a stronger
northern plains short wave which would push a front into northeast
Colorado Wednesday. That could translate to a little cooler
weather with a better chance of storms into Thursday. However, the
ECMWF and even a few of the GFS ensemble members show the ridge
holding strong. We'll be cautiously optimistic at this time
regarding the cold front/storm chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 541 PM MDT Wed Jul 4 2018

Mainly VFR with thunderstorms and brief MVFR vis in the area
through 04-05z. Multiple outflow boundaries and today's earlier
frontal boundaries are making the wind forecast challenging.
Overal look for northeast wind, then become a southerly drainage
wind. Showers and thunderstorm chances renew Thursday afternoon
with temp MVFR vis in rain.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

UPDATE...Hanson
SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Hanson

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
943 AM MDT Wed Jul 4 2018

COZ030>051-051545-
Jackson County Below 9000 Feet-
West Jackson and West Grand Counties Above 9000 Feet-
Grand and Summit Counties Below 9000 Feet-
South and East Jackson/Larimer/North and Northeast Grand/
Northwest Boulder Counties Above 9000 Feet-
South and Southeast Grand/West Central and Southwest Boulder/
Gilpin/Clear Creek/Summit/North and West Park Counties Above
9000 Feet-Larimer and Boulder Counties Between 6000 and 9000 Feet-
Jefferson and West Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet/Gilpin/Clear
Creek/Northeast Park Counties Below 9000 Feet-
Central and Southeast Park County-
Larimer County Below 6000 Feet/Northwest Weld County-
Boulder And Jefferson Counties Below 6000 Feet/West Broomfield
County-
North Douglas County Below 6000 Feet/Denver/West Adams and
Arapahoe Counties/East Broomfield County-
Elbert/Central and East Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet-
Northeast Weld County-Central and South Weld County-Morgan County-
Central and East Adams and Arapahoe Counties-
North and Northeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/North Lincoln
County-
Southeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/South Lincoln County-
Logan County-Washington County-Sedgwick County-Phillips County-
943 AM MDT Wed Jul 4 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for northeast and north central
Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A cold front will move through the region increasing moisture and
helping to increase thunderstorm chances for the afternoon
hours. Storms will develop along the base of the foothills and
Palmer Divide and push northeast into the evening hours. The
Metro area can expect some thunderstorm development after 3 pm
with most of the storms moving east after 7 pm. Main hazards will
be lightning, brief moderate rain and gusty winds. Some storms
could become severe, especially to the east if the storms can tap
into the better moisture. These storms could produce wind gusts up
to 60 mph and large hail. In the mountains storm chances will be
lower but gusty winds and brief rain will be possible with
lightning. Temperatures will be cooler today with highs reaching
into the upper 80s to low 90s on the plains and 60s to 70s in the
mountains.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Scattered thunderstorms will redevelop across the entire forecast
area Thursday afternoon and evening. A few of these storms may be
severe with large hail and damaging winds. Heavy rainfall will
also be possible from the stronger storms, with local flooding
possible in burn scars and urban/low lying areas as the storms
will be slow movers.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will remain in the forecast
for the mountain areas through the weekend and early next week,
but plains locations will dry out again with hot temperatures
returning.

The fire danger will remain elevated, especially over the high
mountain valley locations and Palmer Divide late this weekend
into early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required after 3 PM.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
409 PM MDT WED JUL 4 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0358 PM     TSTM WND GST     LIMON MUNICIPAL AIRPORT 39.27N 103.67W
07/04/2018  M61 MPH          LINCOLN            CO   ASOS

            ASOS STATION LIC, LIMON MUNICIPAL AIRPORT.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
421 PM MDT WED JUL 4 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0416 PM     HAIL             5 SSE HUDSON            40.00N 104.61W
07/04/2018  M1.00 INCH       ADAMS              CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
550 PM MDT WED JUL 4 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     HAIL             2 SW LOVELAND           40.39N 105.10W
07/04/2018  M1.00 INCH       LARIMER            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
555 PM MDT WED JUL 4 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     HAIL             2 SW LOVELAND           40.39N 105.10W
07/04/2018  M1.00 INCH       LARIMER            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0416 PM     HAIL             5 SSE HUDSON            40.00N 104.61W
07/04/2018  M1.00 INCH       ADAMS              CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0358 PM     TSTM WND GST     LIMON MUNICIPAL AIRPORT 39.27N 103.67W
07/04/2018  M61 MPH          LINCOLN            CO   ASOS

            ASOS STATION LIC, LIMON MUNICIPAL AIRPORT.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
609 PM MDT WED JUL 4 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0559 PM     HAIL             2 SW LOVELAND           40.39N 105.11W
07/04/2018  M1.75 INCH       LARIMER            CO   PUBLIC

0545 PM     HAIL             2 SW LOVELAND           40.39N 105.10W
07/04/2018  M1.00 INCH       LARIMER            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0416 PM     HAIL             5 SSE HUDSON            40.00N 104.61W
07/04/2018  M1.00 INCH       ADAMS              CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0358 PM     TSTM WND GST     LIMON MUNICIPAL AIRPORT 39.27N 103.67W
07/04/2018  M61 MPH          LINCOLN            CO   ASOS

            ASOS STATION LIC, LIMON MUNICIPAL AIRPORT.

&&