Red Flag Warning 11, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

164 
WWUS85 KBOU 230945
RFWBOU

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
345 AM MDT Fri Mar 23 2018

......A Red Flag Warning remains in effect from 11 AM until 7 PM 
this evening for gusty winds and low relative humidity values for
fire weather zone 247...which includes southeast Elbert County 
below 6000 feet and southern Lincoln county...

COZ247-231745-
/O.CON.KBOU.FW.W.0011.180323T1700Z-180324T0100Z/
Southeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/South Lincoln County-
345 AM MDT Fri Mar 23 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR
SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET AND SOUTHERN LINCOLN
COUNTY...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zone 247.

* Timing...11 AM TO 7 PM MDT Friday.

* Winds...West 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 13 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire
  growth and spread this afternoon and evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

192 
WWUS85 KBOU 231644
RFWBOU

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1044 AM MDT Fri Mar 23 2018

......A Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 7 PM this 
evening for gusty winds and low relative humidity values for fire 
weather zone 247...which includes southeast Elbert County below 
6000 feet and southern Lincoln county...

COZ247-240100-
/O.CON.KBOU.FW.W.0011.180323T1700Z-180324T0100Z/
Southeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/South Lincoln County-
1044 AM MDT Fri Mar 23 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY
BELOW 6000 FEET AND SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zone 247.

* Timing...in effect through 7 PM MDT this evening.

* Winds...West 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 13 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread this afternoon and evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

547 
WWUS85 KBOU 240129
RFWBOU

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
729 PM MDT Fri Mar 23 2018


COZ247-240230-
/O.EXP.KBOU.FW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-180324T0100Z/
Southeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/South Lincoln County-
729 PM MDT Fri Mar 23 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FOR SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET AND SOUTHERN
LINCOLN COUNTY...

Winds have decreased this evening while humidity levels will
slowly recover tonight, hence the Red flag warning has been
allowed to expire. 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1049 AM MDT Thu Mar 22 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1049 AM MDT Thu Mar 22 2018

Cloud cover reduced over most of the plains, with the exception
of northern Weld County, to reflect current conditions. Moisture
to the west will move in through the day which will lead to
increasing cloud cover. Otherwise, forecast remains on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 420 AM MDT Thu Mar 22 2018

Warm temperatures are expected across northeast Colorado today as
an upper ridge moves over the state. Temperatures will be about 10
degrees warmer than yesterday, peaking in the lower to mid 70s. A
surface low pressure trough will be in place with light southerly
winds. The upper ridge contains a fair amount to high level
moisture, so sky conditions will be partly to mostly cloudy as
downsloping westerly winds at mid-levels provide the primary
warming mechanism. All in all a very nice early Spring day.

The unseasonably warm weather will extend into the mountains where
the lower elevations of western Grand County could see high
temperatures in the lower 60s, and other lower elevations of
Jackson, Summit and Park Counties could reach the upper 40s and
lower 50s. Even the mountain ridges and passes will see
temperatures in the upper 30s and lower 40s.

By evening, moisture levels will be on the increase over the
mountains as southwesterly flow aloft continues. As the airmass
reaches saturation this evening, precipitation is expected to
develop, and in today's case, the warm temperatures will raise
the snow level to higher than 10,000 feet as the precipitation
begins. Snow levels will fall overnight as a short wave
disturbance embedded in the southwest flow moves over the
mountains. The Park and Gore ranges will eventually see the most
snow from this system, 4 to 8 inches overnight and through
tomorrow, so will issue Winter Weather Advisory for zone 31. Other
mountain areas will see less snow, probably in the 2 to 6 inch
range. The northeast Colorado plains are expected to remain dry as
the weather disturbance passes.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 420 AM MDT Thu Mar 22 2018

An upper level disturbance in SW flow aloft will move across the
area on Fri with a quick shot of mid lvl ascent.  Lapse rates will
be fairly unstable as well.  Cross-sections show favorable moisture
in the mtns thru midday with some decrease in the aftn.  Overall
some areas may receive advisory criteria especially in zn 31.
Across nern CO there will be enough instability for a chc of
showers and possibly a few tstms in the aftn.

By Fri night moisture will gradually decrease in the mtns so snow
chances should diminish.  Across nern CO there will be a slight chc
of showers in the early evening hours otherwise it will be dry.

On Sat drier air in SW flow aloft will be over the area with no pcpn
expected. Highs over nern CO will 10 to 15 degrees abv normal.
For Sun, moisture will begin to increase in the mtns as SW flow
aloft continues. With favorable instability will mention a chc of
showers for the aftn hours. Across nern CO it will remain dry
with another day of abv normal temps.

By Mon an upper level trough will move into the Great Basin with
SSW flow aloft over the area. At the sfc, low pres will be over
sern CO as a cool fnt moves into nern CO with upslope low lvl
flow. Cross-sections show increasing moisture thru the day along
with favorable lapse rates. In addition the flow aloft will become
rather diffluent so expect there will be an increasing chc of
showers and possibly a few tstms by Mon aftn which will continue
into Mon Night. Thickness values would suggest rain would change
to snow at lower elevations Mon evening.

On Tue the upper level system is fcst to split as one piece of
energy moves into the nrn Rockies while the main energy moves
into the swrn US. This type of set up usually would lead to
decreasing pcpn chances across the area. By Wed, the main upper
level low will move across cntrl or srn New Mexico, and likely
will be too far south to produce any pcpn over the area except
possibly over far srn areas of the CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1049 AM MDT Thu Mar 22 2018

VFR conditions through Friday afternoon. Light winds with a
predominantly south component through the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 420 AM MDT Thu Mar 22 2018

Gusty winds and low humidity will lead to elevated fire danger
over Lincoln Friday afternoon.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 PM MDT
Friday for COZ031.

&&

UPDATE...Sullivan
SHORT TERM...Dankers
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...Sullivan
FIRE WEATHER...RPK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1047 AM MDT Thu Mar 22 2018

COZ030>051-231700-
Jackson County Below 9000 Feet-
West Jackson and West Grand Counties Above 9000 Feet-
Grand and Summit Counties Below 9000 Feet-
South and East Jackson/Larimer/North and Northeast Grand/
Northwest Boulder Counties Above 9000 Feet-
South and Southeast Grand/West Central and Southwest Boulder/
Gilpin/Clear Creek/Summit/North and West Park Counties Above
9000 Feet-Larimer and Boulder Counties Between 6000 and 9000 Feet-
Jefferson and West Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet/Gilpin/Clear
Creek/Northeast Park Counties Below 9000 Feet-
Central and Southeast Park County-
Larimer County Below 6000 Feet/Northwest Weld County-
Boulder And Jefferson Counties Below 6000 Feet/West Broomfield
County-
North Douglas County Below 6000 Feet/Denver/West Adams and
Arapahoe Counties/East Broomfield County-
Elbert/Central and East Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet-
Northeast Weld County-Central and South Weld County-Morgan County-
Central and East Adams and Arapahoe Counties-
North and Northeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/North Lincoln
County-
Southeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/South Lincoln County-
Logan County-Washington County-Sedgwick County-Phillips County-
1047 AM MDT Thu Mar 22 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR RABBIT EARS PASS TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...

This hazardous weather outlook is for northeast and north central
Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Today will be warmer with temperatures well above seasonal
normals throughout northeast and north central Colorado. Moisture
will increase over the mountains this afternoon with rain showers
and a few thunderstorms possible by evening. Rain will change to
snow by midnight with the heaviest accumulations expected over
Rabbit Ears Pass and the Gore and Park Ranges which should receive
2 to 4 inches. The plains will see dry conditions through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Mountain areas will see a mix of rain and snow on Friday as an
upper level weather disturbance moves across the area. Additional
accumulations of 2 to 5 inches will be possible in some areas.

On the plains, it will remain warm on Friday with elevated Fire
Danger over Lincoln county. There will be a chance of afternoon
showers and a few thunderstorms mainly over the far northeast
plains.

After dry conditions on Saturday, more moisture will begin moving
into the mountains on Sunday with a chance of showers by afternoon.
Unsettled weather is expected for early next week with an
increasing chance of precipitation along with cooler
temperatures.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today or tonight.