Wind Advisory 11, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
640 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

.UPDATE...
For 00Z Aviation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

Hurricane Michael made landfall just northwest of Mexico City, FL,
just after 1230 PM CDT as a strong Category 4 hurricane. The
center of Michael is currently located in extreme southwest GA and
will continue to track northeastward across GA into tonight.
Winds across southeast Central AL have gradually increased, and
Troy and Eufaula are reporting NW winds around 20-25 mph gusting
to 40 mph. There's still a chance that sustained winds could reach
into the 25-35 mph range with gusts potentially as high as 50 mph
this afternoon and evening as Michael passes just to the
southeast. Therefore, a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect
for Pike, Bullock, Barbour and Russell Counties.

A Flash Flood Watch also remains in effect for the far southeast
counties through 06Z tonight. Rainfall totals as of 430 PM are
roughly 2-3 inches in the Watch area, with an additional 1-3
inches possible through tonight.

Looking back to the west, there's some scattered moderate/heavy
showers, and a couple embedded thunderstorms, that have developed
along the MS/AL state line in association with a cold front. This
activity should gradually diminish this evening as the front
slowly pushes eastward across the area behind Michael.

19

.LONG TERM...
Thursday through Wednesday.

Wrap around clouds and scattered light showers will linger across
central Alabama Thursday morning as Tropical Cyclone Michael
quickly exits to the east of the area. The rain should be out of
east Alabama by 12 noon Thursday and the skies will quickly clear
from west to east during the afternoon. Drier low level air will
also begin to advect into the area on Thursday as north winds on
the back side of Michael pulls a cooler air mass southward. The
first taste of Fall weather will occur Friday as an upper trof
establishes itself over the eastern United States. The models have
trended towards cooler conditions for Friday and Saturday with
lows in the 40s and 50s.

A gradual warm-up over the weekend as the surface high shifts to
the east of Alabama and surface winds become southeast. A fast
moving short wave trof will pass to the north of Alabama Monday or
Tuesday. The GFS model shows a slightly more amplified trof and
brings a band of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms across
central Alabama Sunday and Monday. The ECMWF models shows a weaker
trof with the rain dissipating as the system moves through
Alabama. Will forecast a chance of rain Sunday and Monday, mainly
across the northern counties, with a drying and cooling trend on
Tuesday. Models diverge greatly by the middle of next week with
the ECMWF model much drier than the GFS, and took a middle ground
with low end rain chances.

58/rose

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF Discussion.

Impacts from Hurricane Michael are starting to subside at many of
the TAF sites. Aside from isolated instances of IFR ceilings where
rainfall is occurring, MVFR to VFR conditions are expected
through the next 24 hours. Strong winds have been confined to KTOI
and have probably peaked, though some gusts to 35kts remain
possible through 03Z. Otherwise, rain and any visibility
restrictions at our eastern and southern sites will come to an
end from west to east through the first few hours of the TAF
period. MVFR ceilings may form in the 09-15Z time frame with
lingering wrap around moisture, but VFR conditions will resume
thereafter.

87

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rain bands associated with Hurricane Michael will continue to
progress eastward through mainly the eastern half of Alabama
through tonight. Gusty winds will continue across the southeast
counties mainly along and south of Interstate 85, but should taper
down overnight. A cold front may bring some rainfall to the
western third, but amounts should remain fairly light. Fog should
not be an issue with winds high enough to prevent development
during the overnight hours. There could be some river fog issues
over the weekend. No fire weather concerns are expected.

08

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
Flash Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Thursday for the following
counties: Barbour...Bullock...Pike...Russell.

Tropical Storm Warning for the following counties: Barbour...
Bullock...Pike...Russell.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
510 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

ALZ011>015-017>050-120115-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
510 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

Hurricane Michael will continue to move north northeast across
Southwest Georgia and later to the northeast across Georgia tonight
into Thursday. As it does so, there remains a potential for marginal
tropical storm force winds across the far southeast counties of
Central Alabama.

Currently, most of the impacts are expected to be along and south of
Interstate 85 through tonight. This is where rainfall amounts of 2
to 5 inches, with locally higher amounts, and wind gusts of 30 to
50 mph appear possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management may be needed
through tonight.