Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1233 PM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018

.UPDATE...
For 18Z Aviation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Today and tonight.

The frontal boundary that was across the southern portions of the
area is slowly lifting northward now as a warm front. Showers and
storms will be mainly along and south of this boundary, with
generally scattered coverage through the evening. This will be a
little more north and west from yesterday since the boundary has
lifted some.  There could be a few stronger storms during the peak
heating of the day with winds and small hail possible. Flow will
also be weak so any storms that develop will need to be monitored
for training and localized flooding, especially in the southeast,
where the best moisture will be in place. Most activity should
dissipate between 10 pm and 12 am tonight, with patchy fog once
again developing.

16

.LONG TERM...
Wednesday through Monday.

The upper-level pattern will become more progressive by Wednesday.
The upper lows currently over the northeastern CONUS and Central
Plains will have opened up into open waves, and moved into the
Atlantic and Midwest, respectively. A shear axis will extend
southward from the latter deamplifying wave over the Midwest,
into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Precipitation associated with
this should remain west of the forecast area Wednesday, with weak
height rises located over Central Alabama. Very dry air at 700 mb
will partially mix down to the surface and should suppress diurnal
convection across the northern two thirds of the area, while
isolated to scattered activity will be possible in the far
southern counties near the old frontal boundary. The lack of
convection and lower dew points mixing down will allow highs to
reach the mid 90s in many locations.

The mid/upper-level shear axis will continue to weaken Thursday as
it moves towards the MS/AL border, as a pair of subtropical
ridges strengthen over Texas and the Atlantic. The atmospheric
column will be in the process of moistening, however there will
still be a southwest to northeast oriented wedge of dry mid-level
air over the area. This is where a relative minimum in diurnal
convection may be, between one favored area in the far northwest
near the shear axis, and another favored area in the far southeast
near an enhancement in low-level onshore flow. Future updates may
be able to lower PoPs a bit more between these two areas as they
become more defined.

A return to a wetter pattern is expected on Friday through the
weekend as a shortwave in northwest flow aloft digs into the Mid-
Mississippi Valley Friday and pushes eastward through the Ohio
Valley on Saturday with an associated surface low.
Cyclonic/slightly enhanced flow aloft to the south of this feature
in a weakness in the subtropical ridge combined with PWATs
increasing to 2 inches will result in above normal coverage of
convection. The unsettled pattern looks to continue into early
next week as another shortwave moves through the central CONUS.

32/Davis

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

VFR will be the dominate category thru the period. Diurnal convection
will develop along the back side of an upper trof axis that is located
across east Alabama. Isolated to scattered TSRA near and south of
the trof will likely impact KMGM and KTOI thru 00z. The activity
will quickly diminish in areal coverage and intensity after 00z.
Models indicate a surge of low level moisture across south Alabama
after 09z, and included low cigs at KTOI.

58/rose

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Daily scattered showers and storms are expected through the next
several days. Morning fog and low clouds will be possible in
locations that receive afternoon and evening rainfall. There are
no fire weather concerns at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     67  94  70  92  71 /  10  10  10  30  30
Anniston    68  94  71  93  71 /  20  10  10  30  20
Birmingham  73  95  74  93  73 /  10  10  10  30  30
Tuscaloosa  73  96  73  94  73 /  10  10  10  30  20
Calera      71  93  71  91  71 /  10  10  10  30  20
Auburn      70  92  71  90  71 /  30  20  10  40  20
Montgomery  71  95  73  92  73 /  20  20  10  40  20
Troy        70  93  72  91  73 /  30  30  20  50  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
401 AM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018

ALZ011>015-017>050-151215-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
401 AM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management is not
expected at this time.

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