Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
653 PM CDT Sat Jul 21 2018

.UPDATE...
For 00Z Aviation.

&&

Near Term...
Through Early Evening.

A couple storms have developed over the last hour across east
Alabama, and seeing a more developed cu field across portions of the
northeast. Expect this to be the primary area of development. The
mesoscale discussion issued earlier today remains valid (below).
Although storm coverage will be low, any storm that develops could
be strong to severe through early evening.

14

.LONG TERM...
Sunday through Friday.

The cold front will slowly slide southward through the area on
Sunday and should be near the I-85 corridor by sunset. Look for
the front to actually clear the area by Sunday night, but then we
shift our attention to the north and the path of the upper low.
Models have come into a little bit more of a consensus on the path
of the upper low swinging through northern GA and into Central AL
on Monday and then setting up shop for several days. This scenario
would place the highest rain chances in the eastern half each
afternoon through Wednesday. By Thursday the upper low opens up
and begins to elongate across the Southeast, before the energy
slides east ahead of the next front that will likely hold of until
the beginning of next week. Highest rain chances for Friday and
Saturday will be across the north, while the southern areas could
dry out some. Temperatures will be in the upper 80s with the cloud
cover through midweek and then rise back into the low 90s by the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF Discussion.

Outside thunderstorms, VFR conds expected thru the period. Isolated
TSRA across east Alabama thru 03z could impact KMGM and KTOI between
02z and 06z, and handled with VCTS. West to southwest winds 8-12
knots thru 02z will diminish to 3-6 knots overnight. Sfc winds
will increase and become west northwest after 15z as the surface
trof pushes south of the area. Isolated TSRA will develop after
17z across northeast Alabama, possibly impacting KANB and KASN.

58/rose

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Isolated to scattered showers/storms are possible through tonight as
a front moves slowly through the area. Tomorrow through early next
week, an upper low will move over the region, leading to higher rain
chances, especially across the east. This will also bring slightly
cooler temperatures. Localized fog will be possible each morning
over the next couple of days where rainfall occurs during the
previous afternoon and evening. There are no fire weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     71  88  68  85  68 /  20  50  30  60  20
Anniston    71  88  68  85  68 /  20  30  30  60  30
Birmingham  75  90  71  87  70 /  10  20  20  50  10
Tuscaloosa  74  92  72  89  71 /  10  10  10  30  10
Calera      73  90  70  87  69 /  20  20  10  40  10
Auburn      74  89  70  86  70 /  50  30  30  60  30
Montgomery  74  93  72  90  70 /  30  30  10  50  20
Troy        75  92  72  89  70 /  30  30  20  50  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

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