Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
339 PM CDT Sun Jul 15 2018

.SHORT TERM...
Through Tonight.

Scattered showers and storms will continue to increase in coverage
this afternoon and early evening. Current radar trends show most
of that activity will be across the west and south. Although, with
colliding boundaries, storms are possible anywhere. Slow storm
motions and PWs around 2 inches create the potential for ponding
and urban flooding. Frequent lightning and a few strong wind gusts
are also possible.

Coverage will diminish with sunset, but at least an isolated
chance of a storm will remain overnight. Looking very similar to
last night, with a messy sky and localized fog possible. Lows will
be in the low to mid 70s.

14

.LONG TERM...
Monday through Saturday.

Northwest flow will develop aloft on Monday while low-level flow
becomes more cyclonic. This will occur as a deep trough moves
through eastern Canada and the Great Lakes and ridging begins to
build over the western CONUS. A cold front will begin to move into
the Mid-South/Ohio Valley regions. High PWATs around 2 to 2.2
inches will remain in place especially across the southern
counties, with another pre-frontal axis of high PWATs sinking down
into the northwest counties during the late afternoon. Expect
another day of hot and humid conditions with heat index values
climbing to around 105 by midday, before high coverage of
showers/storms causes some relief in the afternoon. Locally heavy
rainfall/localized flooding will remain possible. Best coverage
may end up being in the northwest counties where clusters of pre-
frontal storms may move in from the northwest. This is also where
the best chance of some stronger storms with gusty winds will be
given an axis of relatively dry air aloft between the two moisture
axes, but mid-level lapse rates and shear will remain very weak.
Still some signals of a possible MCS or two developing Monday
night or at least a few clusters of storms. With timing in the
models ranging from early evening to after midnight, will keep
likely PoPs in across the north all night long.

Outflow boundaries from Monday night's convection will likely play
a role on Tuesday's forecast. Highest confidence in widespread
rain chances will be across the southern counties near an upper
shear axis. It's possible that outflow could stabilize the
northern counties, but the main front/theta-e gradient/PWAT
gradient will remain north of the area even as the surface
trough/wind shift gradient moves through. These factors will
hopefully keep heat index values below 105. Locally heavy
rainfall/localized flooding remains a threat.

PoP/dew point forecast for Wednesday/Thursday will hinge on
exactly where the front stalls out. Models continue to vary from
run to run and between each other. Highest confidence in rain
chances will be across the south on Wednesday and southeast on
Thursday. A wave of low pressure also looks to develop along the
front by Thursday and move up the East Coast, while a shortwave
begins to approach from the northwest.

Upper-level pattern will continue to amplify Friday through the
weekend as ridging strengthens near the Four Corners and an
anomalous upper low moves into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley
region. This will result in the potential for MCSs/organized
storms. Will need to monitor the potential for severe storms given
forecast mid-level lapse rates/bulk shear values, but confidence
is low this far out.

32/Davis

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

Shower and thunderstorm activity has already begun for most of
Central Alabama this afternoon. The majority of the activity thus
far has been concentrated towards the south which will likely have
the most affects on KMGM and KTOI. Have included a TEMPO for TSRA
for both KMGM and KTOI until 21Z and will amend as needed. The
rest of the sites have VCTS as the prevailing condition either now
or delayed until 19Z based on current radar depiction. Sites that
do receive rain are likely to see low clouds and/or fog later in
the period. Timing may have to be adjusted in the next set of
TAFs.

07

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Above normal coverage of mainly afternoon and early evening
showers and thunderstorms is expected through at least Tuesday as
a weak front moves towards the area. Localized fog will be
possible each morning where rainfall occurs during the previous
afternoon and evening. There are no fire weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     72  90  71  90  70 /  30  70  60  60  40
Anniston    72  89  72  89  71 /  30  60  60  70  50
Birmingham  74  91  74  90  73 /  30  60  60  70  50
Tuscaloosa  74  94  75  92  74 /  40  60  60  80  40
Calera      73  89  72  89  72 /  30  60  60  80  50
Auburn      73  88  72  87  72 /  30  60  50  80  60
Montgomery  74  92  74  91  74 /  40  60  50  80  60
Troy        73  90  74  89  74 /  40  60  50  80  60

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for the following
counties: Fayette...Greene...Hale...Lamar...Marengo...Marion...
Pickens...Sumter...Tuscaloosa.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
416 AM CDT Sun Jul 15 2018

ALZ011>015-017>050-161230-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
416 AM CDT Sun Jul 15 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Heat indices will be near 105 degrees in western portions of Central
Alabama today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Heat indices will be near 105 degrees again on Monday, mainly in
western and southern portions of Central Alabama.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management is not expected
at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
206 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2018

ALZ011-151930-
Marion AL-
206 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN MARION COUNTY UNTIL
230 PM CDT...

At 206 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southeast of Red Bay, moving south at 25 mph.

Winds of 30 to 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hamilton, Weston, Pigeye, Shottsville, Rankin Fite Airport and Bexar.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3432 8817 3431 8791 3409 8792 3410 8820
TIME...MOT...LOC 1906Z 358DEG 22KT 3435 8808

89^GSatterwhite

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
324 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2018

ALZ011-012-152100-
Marion AL-Lamar AL-
324 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL MARION AND NORTH
CENTRAL LAMAR COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

At 324 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Detroit, or 12 miles west of Hamilton, moving southeast at 15 mph.

Winds of 30 to 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Detroit, Byrd and Henson Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3401 8821 3417 8819 3418 8818 3405 8799
      3394 8817 3400 8822
TIME...MOT...LOC 2024Z 326DEG 11KT 3410 8819

89^GSatterwhite

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
510 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2018

ALZ013-015-152245-
Fayette AL-Walker AL-
510 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN WALKER AND EAST
CENTRAL FAYETTE COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

At 510 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Berry, or 12 miles east of Fayette, moving east at 15 mph.

Winds of 30 to 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Berry, Bankston, Boley Springs, Corona, Townley and West Corona.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3362 8772 3378 8772 3384 8743 3361 8742
TIME...MOT...LOC 2210Z 262DEG 12KT 3371 8762

89^GSatterwhite

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
521 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2018

ALZ015-152245-
Walker AL-
521 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL WALKER COUNTY UNTIL 545
PM CDT...

At 521 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Oakman, or 11 miles south of Carbon Hill, moving east at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Jasper, Cordova, Parrish, Oakman, Gorgas Steam Plant, Gorgas,
Goodsprings, The Wye and Townley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3361 8742 3384 8743 3386 8720 3362 8715
TIME...MOT...LOC 2221Z 262DEG 12KT 3373 8749

89^GSatterwhite