Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
438 PM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018

.SHORT TERM...
Through Tonight.

A combination of diurnal heating and an Eastern Gulf of Mexico
low pressure system have kept the radar across the southeast half
of Central Alabama lit up for much of the afternoon with easterly
to northeasterly flow outside of outflow induced areas. This
convection is expected to decrease in intensity and coverage after
sunset as we lose fuel from the heat of the day, but outflow
collisions will likely sustain some scattered activity during the
evening hours. We could have a lull in the late evening into the
wee hours 10pm-ish through around 3-4 am as this activity goes
down. However, the low should nudge a little closer across the
Northern Gulf Coast and could generate a little pre dawn
convection in the southeast counties.

08

.LONG TERM...
Sunday through Friday.

Enhanced rain chances, with POPs up to 70 percent, can be expected
especially along and south of I-20 for Sunday as a weak upper low
remains nearly stationary across South Alabama. This system
should begin to move slowly westward on Monday and lead to a
continuation of high rain chances.

Tuesday appears to be the driest day of the extended period as
models indicate a ridge axis moving in from the east behind the
departing upper low. For Wednesday through Friday, the ridge over
the Mid-Atlantic Region will shift westward into the Midwest and
Plains. This should lead higher rain chances across the forecast
area as disturbances embedded within deep easterly flow affect
the region.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

We have easterly flow around an upper low pressure system in the
Eastern Gulf. Best chance for convection is at the southern TAFs
(MGM/TOI) closer to the low. Scattered TSRA also possible across
other TAFs as well. Coverage should drop off after sunset. Could
see some reduced visibilities with brief heavy rain.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Higher rain chances are expected this afternoon, with even
greater chances Sunday and Monday. Patchy fog and low clouds are
possible each morning where rainfall occurs during the previous
afternoon and evening. There are no fire weather concerns at this
time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     71  87  72  88  72 /  30  60  30  60  30
Anniston    72  87  72  87  72 /  30  60  40  60  30
Birmingham  73  89  74  88  73 /  30  60  30  60  30
Tuscaloosa  74  92  74  89  74 /  30  50  30  60  30
Calera      71  88  73  87  73 /  30  60  30  60  30
Auburn      71  84  72  86  72 /  50  70  40  60  30
Montgomery  73  87  74  87  73 /  50  70  40  70  30
Troy        72  85  73  86  71 /  50  70  40  70  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

08/87

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
324 AM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018

ALZ011>015-017>050-011130-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
324 AM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...through Tonight.

Heat indices will climb to near 105 degrees this afternoon in the
western third of Central Alabama. This will mainly affect areas
along and west of a Fayette to Demopolis line. Confidence remains
low that the values be reach for any prolonged period.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management is not
expected at this time.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
444 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2018

ALZ034-302215-
Bibb AL-
444 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL BIBB COUNTY UNTIL
515 PM CDT...

At 444 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
West Centreville, or over Centreville, moving south at 15 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Brent, Centreville, West Centreville and Bibb County Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3305 8718 3303 8704 3284 8703 3283 8728
      3284 8732 3287 8732
TIME...MOT...LOC 2144Z 016DEG 14KT 3296 8714

89^GSatterwhite

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
447 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2018

ALZ038-302215-
Chambers AL-
447 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN CHAMBERS COUNTY UNTIL
515 PM CDT...

At 447 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Fredonia, or near Stroud, moving west at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lafayette, Stroud, La Fayette, Lakeview, Fredonia, Post Oak Forks,
Veasey Creek Park, Denson, Amity Park, Abanda, Standing Rock, Welch,
Penton, Trammel Crossroads, Buffalo, Ridge Grove, Southern Harbor,
Rocky Point and Stroud Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3288 8556 3311 8557 3311 8523 3288 8519
TIME...MOT...LOC 2147Z 102DEG 13KT 3299 8535

89^GSatterwhite